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Predictions graded

Genoa 2Juventus0

HT 2–0Wed 28 Oct 2026, 19:45 Predictions graded

Predictions3–350%

Edges2–340%

PossPossession 37%–63%ShotsShots 14–17On targetOn target 2–4CornersCorners 6–9

Quick Take

Pre-match view

Context last updated 27 Oct 2026, 04:12 · Europe/Bucharest

Juventus arrive unbeaten in five meetings with Genoa, who have not scored in any of them, but a long absentee list and a 0-3 home loss to Lazio leave the visitors less settled than the table suggests.

Avoiding defeat is the likeliest outcome, but 1.17 for Draw or Juventus is far too short, and Under 2.5 at 1.75, Under 1.5 first half at 1.35, Juventus to score at 1.18 and five or more Juventus corners at 1.43 leave no margin worth taking.

Context

On 26 October, two reports pointed to a 5-3-2 that keeps nine or 10 of the starters from Juventus's 2-0 win at Lecce. That would give the visitors a largely unchanged unit for the short-turnaround trip to Genoa. The reports are projections rather than a club team sheet, and they differ on how much rotation is likely.
- Mirko Nicolino posted a projected Juventus 5-3-2 for Genoa on 26 October, naming Douglas Luiz and P. Sarr in midfield.
- Forza Juve English, attributing its report to Romeo Agresti, said Juventus were expected to retain nine of 11 starters from Lecce and that P. Sarr was not ready for 90 minutes.
ReportedSources checked 27 Oct 2026, 04:10 · Europe/Bucharest
Genoa's recent record against Juventus is one of repeated blanks in front of goal.
Genoa have not found the net in this fixture across a run stretching from March 2024 to April 2026. That record shapes the tie: Genoa's route to points probably runs through a clean sheet rather than an open exchange. It is a five-match sample, and the 0-0 in March 2024 shows the game can simply stay locked.
- 6 April 2026: Juventus 2-0 Genoa in Serie A.
- 31 August 2025: Genoa 0-1 Juventus in Serie A.
- 28 September 2024: Genoa 0-3 Juventus in Serie A.
- Across the last five meetings, from March 2024 to April 2026, Juventus won four and drew one, and Genoa did not score in any.
Genoa's official match updates place S. Wiafe's substitution against Venezia in the immediate lead-in to this fixture, and a 26 October report said examinations found no lesion. That makes his status a live squad consideration before Juventus arrive. The medical update was not issued by Genoa, so it does not confirm his availability or expected role.
- Genoa's official live update recorded S. Wiafe being replaced in the 80th minute of the 1-0 win over Venezia on 25 October.
- Buon Calcio a Tutti reported on 26 October that examinations excluded a lesion and that S. Wiafe had a good chance of recovering for Juventus.
ReportedSources checked 27 Oct 2026, 04:10 · Europe/Bucharest
Genoa themselves announced M. Mitaj's Serie A debut on 26 October, immediately after the Venezia match. The Juventus fixture is therefore the first league game following that milestone and supplies useful current squad context. The club's announcement does not indicate whether Mitaj is expected to feature against Juventus.
- Genoa CFC announced on 26 October that M. Mitaj had made his Serie A debut.
- The announcement followed Genoa's 1-0 home win over Venezia on 25 October.
ConfirmedSources checked 27 Oct 2026, 04:10 · Europe/Bucharest

BetBugs edges

Compare BetBugs' chances with the market's.

Other edges · 5

The published chance does not exceed the market's implied chance.

Double ChancelostUncertainty band: Strong lean

Draw or Juventus

1.17fair 1.52

BetBugs 66% · Market 85.5%

−19.5ppshort

Juventus have the stronger league position, away record and recent head-to-head edge, so avoiding defeat is the central outcome.

Goals Over/UnderwonUncertainty band: Slight lean

Under 2.5

1.75fair 1.75

BetBugs 57% · Market 57.1%

−0.1ppshort

The head-to-head is consistently low-scoring and Genoa have struggled to create goals against Juventus.

1st Half GoalslostUncertainty band: Lean

Under 1.5 goals in 1st half

1.35fair 1.56

BetBugs 64% · Market 74.1%

−10.1ppshort

Both teams have low first-half scoring averages and the head-to-head pattern is cagey early.

Away Goals TotallostUncertainty band: Strong lean

Juventus over 0.5

1.18fair 1.28

BetBugs 78% · Market 84.7%

−6.7ppshort

Juventus have scored regularly and Genoa's clean-sheet rate is low.

BetBugs probabilities

How likely BetBugs thought each outcome was.

Result0 of 1 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Market price 1.17
The read
Juventus have the stronger league position, away record and recent head-to-head edge, so avoiding defeat is the central outcome.
- Juventus are 7th with 14 points; Genoa are 16th with 7.
- Juventus are unbeaten in the last five head-to-heads (W4 D1).
- Genoa failed to score in all five of those meetings.
BetBugs · Double ChancelostDraw or JuventusEstimated chance66%

Goals1 of 3 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Market price 1.75
The read
The head-to-head is consistently low-scoring and Genoa have struggled to create goals against Juventus.
- Four of the last five head-to-heads had two or fewer goals.
- Genoa have scored 0 in the last five meetings with Juventus.
- Genoa average 1.1 goals for and 1.4 against in 10 competitive matches.
BetBugs · Goals Over/UnderwonUnder 2.5Estimated chance57%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Market price 1.35
The read
Both teams have low first-half scoring averages and the head-to-head pattern is cagey early.
- Genoa average 0.6 first-half goals for and 0.7 against in 10 matches.
- Juventus average 0.73 first-half goals for and 0.45 against in 11 matches.
- The last five head-to-heads produced only seven total goals.
BetBugs · 1st Half GoalslostUnder 1.5 goals in 1st halfEstimated chance64%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Market price 1.18
The read
Juventus have scored regularly and Genoa's clean-sheet rate is low.
- Juventus scored in five of their last six competitive matches.
- They scored twice at Lecce and twice at Celta Vigo.
- Genoa kept only 2 clean sheets in 10 competitive matches.
BetBugs · Away Goals TotallostJuventus over 0.5Estimated chance78%

Match stats2 of 2 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Market price 1.43
The read
Juventus generate a high corner volume away from home and Genoa concede a healthy number.
- Juventus average 6.7 corners overall and 8.2 in away matches.
- Genoa concede 4.8 corners per match on average.
- Juventus had 9 corners at Cagliari and 7 at Celta Vigo.
BetBugs · Away CornerswonJuventus over 4.5Estimated chance64%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Juventus are a low-card team and the combined card average sits under the line.
- Juventus average 1.18 yellow cards per competitive match.
- Genoa average 2.2 yellow cards per match.
- Juventus have kept to 2 or fewer yellows in their last six matches.
BetBugs · Cards Over/UnderwonUnder 3.5Estimated chance57%

Prediction history

Genoa : 3/5 recent goals projections matched

3 of 5 comparable goals projections involving Genoa matched the recorded result. This is a limited recent sample, not a guarantee for this match.

Recent evidence for Genoa5 matches

Date / competitionMatch resultPredictedActualResult

24 May·Serie A

Lecce

Genoa

BetBugsUnder 2.5 goals·68%→1 total goal

24 May 2026

Serie A

Lecce

Genoa

Under 2.5 goals

68%probability

1 total goal

17 May·Serie A

Genoa

AC Milan

BetBugsUnder 2.5 goals·60%→3 total goals

17 May 2026

Serie A

Genoa

AC Milan

Under 2.5 goals

60%probability

3 total goals

10 May·Serie A

Fiorentina

Fiorentina0-0 Genoa

Genoa

BetBugsUnder 2.5 goals·60%→0 total goals

10 May 2026

Serie A

Fiorentina

Genoa

Under 2.5 goals

60%probability

0 total goals

26 Apr·Serie A

Genoa

Como

BetBugsUnder 2.5 goals·58%→2 total goals

26 Apr 2026

Serie A

Genoa

Como

Under 2.5 goals

58%probability

2 total goals

19 Apr·Serie A

Pisa

Genoa

BetBugsUnder 2.5 goals·72%→3 total goals

19 Apr 2026

Serie A

Pisa

Genoa

Under 2.5 goals

72%probability

3 total goals

Head-to-Head

2W · 1D · 2W

L2-0JuventusvGenoaApr 6, 2026SA

W0-1GenoavJuventusAug 31, 2025SA

L1-0JuventusvGenoaMar 29, 2025SA

W0-3GenoavJuventusSep 28, 2024SA

D0-0JuventusvGenoaMar 17, 2024SA

Genoa : 3 clean sheetsJuventus: 3 clean sheets1.4 goals/game avg

League Table

Serie A 2026/2027

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF-GA	Pts	Form
16	Genoa	8	2	1	5	6-13	7	WLWLD
7	Juventus	8	4	2	2	11-8	14	WLDWL

7pt gap between teams

Recent Form

Genoa

Genoa

W1-0VeneziaOct 25SA

L0-2AS RomaOct 17SA

W2-1FiorentinaOct 10SA

L0-2RapidOct 2FRI

L1-2ParmaSep 20SA

W1-0SudtirolSep 15CI

D1-1FrosinoneSep 12SA

L1-4ComoSep 4SA

L0-1LazioAug 30SA

L0-2NapoliAug 22SA

W4-1AscoliAug 16CI

L0-1Deportivo La CorunaAug 8FRI

L1-10BournemouthAug 4FRI

W1-0LeicesterAug 1FRI

D2-2Vicenza VirtusJul 25FRI

Juventus

Juventus

W2-0LecceOct 25SA

D2-2RennesOct 22UEF

L0-3LazioOct 18SA

W2-1Celta VigoOct 15UEF

D1-1CagliariOct 11SA

L0-1CremoneseOct 2FRI

W2-0AtalantaSep 20SA

W5-0NEC NijmegenSep 17UEF

L2-3SassuoloSep 13SA

D1-1AC MilanSep 6SA

W2-0ParmaAug 29SA

W1-0FrosinoneAug 23SA

W2-0PalermoAug 11FRI

L1-2InterAug 8FRI

W1-0ChelseaAug 5FRI

Squad & Injuries

Genoa

10 out

Attackers2/7

×#17

×#17

Midfielders4/13

×#97

×#71

×#97

×#71

Defenders2/14

×#3

×#3

Goalkeeper3

#17 E. Havel — Ankle Injury

#97 D. Sow — Thigh Injury

L. Venturino — Knee Injury

#3 K. Ehizibue — Muscle Injury

#71 S. Wiafe — Abdominal strain

#17 E. Havel — Ankle Injury

#97 D. Sow — Thigh Injury

L. Venturino — Knee Injury

#3 K. Ehizibue — Muscle Injury

#71 S. Wiafe — Abdominal strain

Juventus

18 out

Attackers10/13

×#7

×#18

×#31

×#14

×#10

×#7

×#18

×#31

×#14

×#10

Midfielders6/12

×#2

×#5

×#19

×#2

×#5

×#19

Defenders9

Goalkeeper2/6

×#1

×#1

#2 Z. Celik — Muscle Injury

#7 F. Conceicao — Shoulder Injury

#18 J. Ekhator — Muscle Injury

#31 N. Gonzalez — Calf Injury

#1 K. Grabara — Knee Injury

#5 M. Locatelli — Knee Injury

#14 A. Milik — Inactive

#19 K. Thuram — Knee Injury

#10 K. Yildiz — Foot Injury

#2 Z. Celik — Muscle Injury

#7 F. Conceicao — Shoulder Injury

#18 J. Ekhator — Muscle Injury

#31 N. Gonzalez — Calf Injury

#1 K. Grabara — Knee Injury

#5 M. Locatelli — Knee Injury

#14 A. Milik — Inactive

#19 K. Thuram — Knee Injury

#10 K. Yildiz — Foot Injury