Serie AFull time

Predictions graded

Genoa1AC Milan2

HT 0–0Sun 17 May 2026, 10:00 Predictions graded

Predictions8–373%

Edges4–180%

PossPossession 62%–38%ShotsShots 11–8On targetOn target 2–6CornersCorners 4–4

Quick Take

Pre-match view

Context last updated 13 May 2026, 17:44 · Europe/Bucharest

Back the first-half draw at 2.15—both teams are slow starters, and 3 of the last 5 H2Hs were level at the break, giving a +18-point edge.

The double chance 'Draw or AC Milan' is safe but offers no value, while under 2.5 goals and both teams to score are marginal plays. Milan's fan unrest adds draw risk, making a low-scoring stalemate the most likely outcome.

Context

The Guardian reported protests during and after the Atalanta loss on 11 May 2026.
- Fan anger targets both recent results and wider club issues.
- Milan have lost three of their last five matches, increasing pressure.
Milan's last five results: L-L-D-W-L, with only four points from 15.
- They conceded eight goals in those five matches.
- Away form has dipped: lost 2-0 at Sassuolo and 1-0 at Napoli recently.
Last five home results: W-D-L-W-W, with the only loss 2-0 to Como.
- Clean sheets against Fiorentina (0-0), Atalanta (0-0), and Torino (3-0).
- Under De Rossi, Genoa have tightened defensively at home.
Last five H2H results: 1-1, 2-1, 0-0, 3-3, 1-0.
- Milan are unbeaten in six, but three draws in that run.
- Only one of the last five had over 2.5 goals.

BetBugs edges

Compare BetBugs' chances with the market's.

Positive edges · 4

BetBugs probabilities

How likely BetBugs thought each outcome was.

Result2 of 3 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
AC Milan's H2H dominance is offset by recent poor form and supporter unrest, while Genoa's mid-table safety reduces pressure, making a draw the most balanced outcome.
- H2H last 5: 3 draws, 2 AC Milan wins; 3 of last 5 ended level
- Genoa home record: 6W-4D-8L; AC Milan away record: 10W-5D-3L
- Genoa last 5 form: D-D-L-W-W (8 pts); AC Milan last 5: L-L-D-W-L (4 pts)
- AC Milan fan unrest reported 11 May 2026, adding volatility
BetBugs · Match WinnerlostDrawEstimated chance35%
Signal quality High · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
AC Milan's superior quality and strong H2H record make them unlikely to lose, despite recent wobbles, supporting a double chance on the away side.
- AC Milan unbeaten in last 6 H2H (W3 D3)
- AC Milan away record: only 3 losses in 18 away games
- Genoa home record: 8 losses in 18 home games
- AC Milan rank 4th, Genoa 14th; 26-point gap
BetBugs · Double ChancewonDraw or AC MilanEstimated chance75%
Signal quality High · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Both teams have low first-half win rates and frequently go into the break level, making a halftime draw the most probable outcome.
- Genoa led at HT in only 13% of matches; AC Milan in 27%
- Genoa trailed at HT in 33%; AC Milan in 33%
- H2H last 5: 3 draws at halftime
- Genoa last 5 first halves: 1W-2D-2L; AC Milan: 1W-1D-3L
BetBugs · First Half WinnerwonDrawEstimated chance65%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
AC Milan's superior fitness and tendency to score late on the road give them a slight edge in the second half, though Genoa's resilience keeps confidence low.
- AC Milan away record: 10 wins, often decided late
- Genoa home second-half record: negative goal difference
- AC Milan scored 60% of away goals in second half (16 of 26)
- Genoa conceded 58% of home goals in second half (14 of 24)
BetBugs · Second Half Winnernot gradableAC MilanEstimated chance40%

Goals4 of 6 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Both teams have moderate scoring rates and recent H2H meetings have been tight, suggesting a low-scoring affair is likely.
- Genoa avg goals: 1.2 scored, 1.3 conceded per game
- AC Milan avg goals: 1.1 scored, 1.1 conceded per game
- H2H last 5: 3 matches under 2.5 goals
- Genoa last 5 home games: 3 under 2.5 goals
BetBugs · Goals Over/UnderlostUnder 2.5Estimated chance60%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Genoa's recent scoring form and AC Milan's defensive lapses make it probable both teams find the net, consistent with H2H trends.
- Genoa scored in 4 of last 5 matches
- AC Milan conceded in 4 of last 5 matches
- H2H last 5: both teams scored in 3 matches
- Genoa home goals: 21 in 18; AC Milan away goals: 26 in 18
BetBugs · Both Teams to ScorewonYesEstimated chance55%
Signal quality High · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Genoa's leaky home defense and AC Milan's consistent away scoring make a home clean sheet highly unlikely.
- Genoa kept only 3 clean sheets in 18 home games
- AC Milan scored in 15 of 18 away games
- Genoa conceded in 13 of last 15 overall
- AC Milan failed to score in only 3 away games all season
BetBugs · Team to ScorewonAC Milan to scoreEstimated chance80%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
AC Milan's recent defensive fragility and Genoa's home scoring record suggest the visitors are unlikely to keep a clean sheet.
- AC Milan kept 5 clean sheets in 18 away games
- Genoa scored in 12 of 18 home games
- Genoa scored in 4 of last 5 matches overall
- AC Milan conceded in 4 of last 5 matches
BetBugs · Team to ScorewonGenoa to scoreEstimated chance65%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Both teams are slow starters with low first-half scoring averages, and H2H history shows few early goals.
- Genoa first-half goals avg: 0.3 per game
- AC Milan first-half goals avg: 0.4 per game
- Genoa first-half goals conceded avg: 0.5; AC Milan: 0.5
- H2H last 5: 4 matches had 0 or 1 first-half goal
BetBugs · 1st Half GoalslostUnder 1.5 goals in 1st halfEstimated chance70%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Both teams tend to score more after halftime, and recent matches show a pattern of second-half activity, though confidence is tempered by overall low scoring.
- Genoa avg second-half goals: 0.9 (1.2 total - 0.3 first half)
- AC Milan avg second-half goals: 0.7 (1.1 total - 0.4 first half)
- H2H last 5: 3 matches had 2+ second-half goals
- Genoa last 5: 4 matches had 2+ second-half goals
BetBugs · Goals Over Under Second HalfwonOver 1.5Estimated chance55%

Match stats2 of 2 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Both teams generate moderate corner counts, and recent H2H meetings have stayed under 10 corners, supporting an under on the total.
- Genoa avg corners: 4.0 per game; AC Milan avg: 3.2
- Genoa opponent corners avg: 4.5; AC Milan opponent corners avg: 4.1
- H2H last 5: total corners 8, 7, 9, 11, 6 (avg 8.2)
- Genoa last 5 home corners: 5, 5, 7, 3, 5 (avg 5.0)
BetBugs · Corners Over/UnderwonUnder 9.5Estimated chance60%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
AC Milan's slightly higher card count and competitive H2H history suggest a moderate card total, though low averages keep confidence low.
- Genoa avg yellow cards: 1.2 per game; AC Milan avg: 1.8
- Genoa opponent yellow cards avg: 2.3; AC Milan opponent avg: 2.1
- H2H last 5: total cards 4, 5, 3, 6, 4 (avg 4.4)
- AC Milan last 5 away: 4, 2, 3, 2, 4 cards (avg 3.0)
BetBugs · Cards Over/UnderwonOver 3.5Estimated chance55%

Head-to-Head

0W · 3D · 2W

D1-1AC MilanvGenoaJan 8, 2026SA

L1-2GenoavAC MilanMay 5, 2025SA

D0-0AC MilanvGenoaDec 15, 2024SA

D3-3AC MilanvGenoaMay 5, 2024SA

L0-1GenoavAC MilanOct 7, 2023SA

AC Milan unbeaten in 5 meetingsAC Milan: 2 clean sheets2.4 goals/game avg

League Table

Serie A 2025/2026

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF-GA	Pts	Form
14	Genoa	36	10	11	15	40-48	41	DDLWW
4	AC Milan Promotion - Champions League (League phase)	36	19	10	7	50-32	67	LLDWL

26pt gap between teams

Recent Form

Genoa

D0-0FiorentinaMay 10SA

D0-0AtalantaMay 2SA

L0-2ComoApr 26SA

W2-1PisaApr 19SA

W2-1SassuoloApr 12SA

L0-2JuventusApr 6SA

L0-2UdineseMar 20SA

W2-0Hellas VeronaMar 15SA

W2-1AS RomaMar 8SA

L0-2InterFeb 28SA

W3-0TorinoFeb 22SA

D0-0CremoneseFeb 15SA

L2-3NapoliFeb 7SA

L2-3LazioJan 30SA

W3-2BolognaJan 25SA

AC Milan

L2-3AtalantaMay 10SA

L0-2SassuoloMay 3SA

D0-0JuventusApr 26SA

W1-0Hellas VeronaApr 19SA

L0-3UdineseApr 11SA

L0-1NapoliApr 6SA

W3-2TorinoMar 21SA

L0-1LazioMar 15SA

W1-0InterMar 8SA

W2-0CremoneseMar 1SA

L0-1ParmaFeb 22SA

D1-1ComoFeb 18SA

W2-1PisaFeb 13SA

W3-0BolognaFeb 3SA

D1-1AS RomaJan 25SA

Squad & Injuries

Genoa

36 available

Attackers8

Midfielders10

Defenders12

Goalkeeper6

AC Milan

27 available

Attackers7

Midfielders9

Defenders7

Goalkeeper4

Quick Take

Context

BetBugs edges

Draw

AC Milan to score

Yes

Under 9.5

Draw or AC Milan

Under 1.5

Result2 of 3 landed

Goals4 of 6 landed

Match stats2 of 2 landed

Head-to-Head

League Table

Recent Form

Genoa

AC Milan

Squad & Injuries

Genoa

AC Milan