Serie AFull timeFeatured

Predictions graded

Genoa 1Venezia0

HT 1–0Sun 25 Oct 2026, 14:00 Predictions graded

Predictions4–450%

Edges4–450%

PossPossession 45%–55%ShotsShots 7–19On targetOn target 4–5CornersCorners 2–10

Quick Take

Pre-match view

Context last updated 24 Oct 2026, 21:43 · Europe/Bucharest

Genoa, 17th, host bottom club Venezia, whose Serie A away run without a win now stands at 29 matches back to February 2022, while every Genoa point has come at home.

Genoa to win or draw is the likeliest result, yet 1.30 asks for more than that record supports. Two quotes do hold: over 2.5 goals at 1.95 and Genoa to take more than 4.5 corners at 1.88.

Context

The 29-match away sequence is a concrete long-term backdrop to Venezia's trip to Genoa. It makes the away setting a relevant part of this fixture's context because their most recent Serie A road win was in February 2022. The supplied evidence establishes the run but does not identify a current tactical or availability cause for it.
- Venezia are winless across their last 29 Serie A away matches.
- That run contains 10 draws and 19 defeats.
- Their last away league win was a 2-1 victory at Torino on 12 February 2022.
ConfirmedSources checked 24 Oct 2026, 21:41 · Europe/BucharestSerie A fixture previewen.legaseriea.it · 23 Oct 2026
Venezia's season has been heavy on defending and light on creation, and their one win reflected that.
Venezia's single league victory this season came from defending rather than control: they scored once, put four shots on target to Napoli's ten and did not win a corner. It is the clearest recent evidence they can absorb pressure, but it also shows how little they created themselves. Whether they can repeat that away from home is the open question, given three away league defeats with three goals scored and eight conceded.
- Venezia beat Napoli 1-0 at home in Serie A on 17 October 2026.
- Venezia had nine shots to Napoli's 29 and four on target to Napoli's ten.
- Venezia took no corners; Napoli took 12.
Genoa's heaviest home result in the sample came early in the season, when Como scored three times before the break and added a fourth after it. Genoa had 11 shots to Como's 20 and two on target to nine, so the scoreline reflected a clear gap on the day. It stands as the main counterweight to the idea that home advantage settles this fixture, and Genoa have conceded eight goals across four home league games.
- Genoa lost 4-1 at home to Como in Serie A on 4 September 2026.
- Genoa trailed 3-1 at half-time.
- Genoa had 11 shots to Como's 20 and two on target to nine.
Nicola's past at Genoa has two directly sourced anchors: 183 appearances as a player and a 22-match spell as coach in 2020. It gives this particular Genoa-Venezia meeting a clear personal connection beyond the ordinary league fixture. The evidence documents the reunion, rather than a selection, tactical, or preparation change.
- Nicola played for Genoa from 1995/96 to 2001/02, making 183 competitive appearances and scoring four goals.
- He coached Genoa from January to August 2020, with eight wins, five draws and nine defeats in 22 competitive matches.
- Nicola is Venezia's current coach for this fixture.
ConfirmedSources checked 24 Oct 2026, 21:41 · Europe/BucharestSerie A fixture previewen.legaseriea.it · 23 Oct 2026

BetBugs edges

Compare BetBugs' chances with the market's.

Positive edges · 2

Other edges · 6

The published chance does not exceed the market's implied chance.

Double ChancewonUncertainty band: Strong lean

Genoa or Draw

1.30fair 1.43

BetBugs 70% · Market 76.9%

−6.9ppshort

Venezia's long failure to win on the road plus a Genoa side that picks up its points at home makes a home win or draw the most likely pair of outcomes.

Home Goals TotalwonUncertainty band: Strong lean

Genoa over 0.5

1.20fair 1.39

BetBugs 72% · Market 83.3%

−11.3ppshort

Genoa find a goal in most matches and face the leakiest defence in the league.

1st Half GoalswonUncertainty band: Strong lean

Over 0.5 goals in 1st half

1.35fair 1.47

BetBugs 68% · Market 74.1%

−6.1ppshort

Both teams concede regularly before the break, so a first-half goal is the more likely single outcome.

Away Goals TotalwonUncertainty band: Strong lean

Venezia under 1.5

1.36fair 1.54

BetBugs 65% · Market 73.5%

−8.5ppshort

Venezia create little and score rarely, so holding them to one goal or fewer is well supported.

BetBugs probabilities

How likely BetBugs thought each outcome was.

Result1 of 1 landed

Signal quality High · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Market price 1.30
The read
Venezia's long failure to win on the road plus a Genoa side that picks up its points at home makes a home win or draw the most likely pair of outcomes.
- Venezia are winless in their last 29 Serie A away matches (10 draws, 19 defeats).
- Venezia's league away record this season is 0 wins, 3 defeats, 3 goals scored and 8 conceded.
- All four of Genoa's league points have come at home (1W 1D 2L in four home games).
BetBugs · Double ChancewonGenoa or DrawEstimated chance70%

Goals3 of 5 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Market price 1.20
The read
Genoa find a goal in most matches and face the leakiest defence in the league.
- Genoa have scored in five of their last six matches.
- Genoa scored four goals across four home league games.
- Venezia have conceded 16 goals in seven league games and kept one clean sheet in their last six.
BetBugs · Home Goals TotalwonGenoa over 0.5Estimated chance72%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Market price 1.95
The read
Both teams' recent matches have been goal-heavy, with Venezia in particular involved in open, high-scoring games.
- Venezia's last six matches produced 21 goals (3.5 per game).
- Genoa's last six matches produced 16 goals (2.7 per game).
- Venezia's seven league games average 3.1 goals; Genoa's average 2.6.
BetBugs · Goals Over/UnderlostOver 2.5Estimated chance56%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Market price 1.78
The read
Both sides have a consistent habit of scoring and conceding, so each team finding the net is a fair central outcome.
- Both teams scored in four of Genoa's last six and four of Venezia's last six.
- Genoa have conceded in five of their last six matches.
- Venezia have scored in five of their last six matches.
BetBugs · Both Teams to ScorelostYesEstimated chance55%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Market price 1.35
The read
Both teams concede regularly before the break, so a first-half goal is the more likely single outcome.
- First-half goals came in four of Genoa's last six and four of Venezia's last six matches.
- Genoa average 0.56 first-half goals for and 0.78 against.
- Venezia average 0.4 first-half goals for and 1.0 against.
BetBugs · 1st Half GoalswonOver 0.5 goals in 1st halfEstimated chance68%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Market price 1.36
The read
Venezia create little and score rarely, so holding them to one goal or fewer is well supported.
- Venezia have scored 6 goals in 7 league games (0.86 per game) and 3 in 3 away games.
- Venezia scored one goal or none in four of their last six matches.
- Venezia managed 9 shots and 4 on target while beating Napoli 1-0.
BetBugs · Away Goals TotalwonVenezia under 1.5Estimated chance65%

Match stats0 of 2 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Market price 1.88
The read
Genoa generate a solid corner count at home and Venezia concede a high number on their travels.
- Genoa average 6.5 corners in home matches.
- Venezia's away opponents average 5.75 corners.
- Genoa took 10 corners against Sudtirol and 8 against Frosinone at home.
BetBugs · Home CornerslostGenoa over 4.5Estimated chance63%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Market price 1.45
The read
Both teams commit enough fouls to make a combined card count above three and a half the likelier outcome.
- Genoa average 2.3 yellows and their opponents 1.6 per game.
- Venezia average 2.3 yellows and their opponents 1.3 per game.
- Genoa's last four league matches produced 5, 8, 6 and 5 cards; Venezia's Lazio and Frosinone games produced 6 each.
BetBugs · Cards Over/UnderlostOver 3.5Estimated chance62%

Markets to Avoid

High-risk markets where price or context leaves too little cushion.

The 1.3 price requires 76.9%, above our 70.0% estimate.

Head-to-Head

2W · 0D · 3W

L2-0GenoavVeneziaFeb 17, 2025SA

L2-0VeneziavGenoaSep 21, 2024SA

W1-3VeneziavGenoaJul 20, 2024FRI

W1-4GenoavVeneziaJul 22, 2023FRI

L1-0GenoavVeneziaJan 16, 2023SER

Venezia: 3 clean sheets2.8 goals/game avg

League Table

Serie A 2026/2027

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF-GA	Pts	Form
17	Genoa	7	1	1	5	5-13	4	LWLDL
20	Venezia Relegation	7	1	0	6	6-16	3	WLLLL

1pt gap between teamsVenezia in relegation zone

Recent Form

Genoa

L0-2AS RomaOct 17SA

W2-1FiorentinaOct 10SA

L0-2RapidOct 2FRI

L1-2ParmaSep 20SA

W1-0SudtirolSep 15CI

D1-1FrosinoneSep 12SA

L1-4ComoSep 4SA

L0-1LazioAug 30SA

L0-2NapoliAug 22SA

W4-1AscoliAug 16CI

L0-1Deportivo La CorunaAug 8FRI

L1-10BournemouthAug 4FRI

W1-0LeicesterAug 1FRI

D2-2Vicenza VirtusJul 25FRI

W2-1TrentoJul 19FRI

Venezia

W1-0NapoliOct 17SA

L1-3AtalantaOct 12SA

L0-2LazioSep 19SA

L2-4FiorentinaSep 11SA

L2-3FrosinoneSep 6SA

L1-2UdineseSep 2CI

L0-2AC MilanAug 28SA

L0-2LecceAug 23SA

W3-2ModenaAug 15CI

D2-2Stade Brestois 29Aug 8FRI

L3-4Saint EtienneAug 1FRI

W3-0GalatasarayJul 27FRI

W8-0Vis PesaroJul 23FRI

W4-2Dolomiti BellunesiJul 19FRI

W2-0PalermoMay 8SER

Squad & Injuries

Genoa

10 out

Attackers4/9

×#29

×#17

×#29

×#17

Midfielders4/11

×#11

×#97

×#11

×#97

Defenders14

Goalkeeper3

#29 L. Colombo — Ankle Injury

L. Venturino — Knee Injury

#17 E. Havel — Ankle Injury

#11 F. Meichtry — Muscle Injury

#97 D. Sow — Thigh Injury

#29 L. Colombo — Ankle Injury

L. Venturino — Knee Injury

#17 E. Havel — Ankle Injury

#11 F. Meichtry — Muscle Injury

#97 D. Sow — Thigh Injury

Venezia

12 out

Attackers2/6

×#9

Midfielders4/14

×#6

×#4

×#6

×#4

Defenders4/10

×#17

×#14

×#17

×#14

Goalkeeper4

#9 A. Adorante — Hernia

#6 G. Busio — Thigh Injury

#4 B. Franjic — Shoulder Injury

M. Sverko — Hip Injury

#17 A. Bella-Kotchap — Thigh Injury

#14 T. Correia — Thigh Injury

#9 A. Adorante — Hernia

#6 G. Busio — Thigh Injury

#4 B. Franjic — Shoulder Injury

M. Sverko — Hip Injury

#17 A. Bella-Kotchap — Thigh Injury

#14 T. Correia — Thigh Injury

Quick Take

Context

BetBugs edges

Over 2.5

Genoa over 4.5

Genoa or Draw

Genoa over 0.5

Yes

Over 0.5 goals in 1st half

Venezia under 1.5

Over 3.5

Result1 of 1 landed

Goals3 of 5 landed

Match stats0 of 2 landed

Markets to Avoid

Genoa or Draw

Head-to-Head

League Table

Recent Form

Genoa

Venezia

Squad & Injuries

Genoa

Venezia