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Predictions graded

Freiburg3Wolfsburg2

HT 1–2Wed 28 Oct 2026, 17:00 Predictions graded

Predictions8–189%

Edges7–188%

PossPossession 61%–39%ShotsShots 17–6On targetOn target 3–2CornersCorners 7–2

Quick Take

Pre-match view

Context last updated 28 Oct 2026, 11:38 · Europe/Bucharest

A Bundesliga side with a 5-0-1 home record against a second-division Wolfsburg who have lost once in ten: Freiburg should have enough to advance, though three defeats in their last six make it less routine than it looks.

The 1.57 on a Freiburg win asks more than that form justifies, and the short goals and corners quotes do not compensate. None of the reviewed prices is worth taking.

Context

Freiburg have won three of the last five meetings, including both 2025 visits to Wolfsburg.
The last five meetings split 3-1-1 in Freiburg's favour and three of them reached three goals or more: 4-3, 3-2 and 1-2 sit alongside a 1-1 in May 2026 and a 1-0 Freiburg win in April 2025. That history sits alongside, not instead of, current form, with Freiburg beaten three times in their last six and Wolfsburg beaten once in ten. It argues for a close, open game rather than a comfortable home win.
- Freiburg won 4-3 away to Wolfsburg in the Bundesliga on 20 December 2025.
- The last five meetings: 1-1 (3 May 2026), 3-4 (20 Dec 2025), 0-1 (26 Apr 2025), 3-2 (13 Dec 2024), 1-2 (27 Apr 2024) — three Freiburg wins, one draw, one Wolfsburg win, with three matches producing three goals or more.
Freiburg's home scoring rate is the most reliable part of their case for this tie.
Those six home matches produced 19 Freiburg goals and eight against, with only one clean sheet. The record is built on scoring rather than containment, which keeps the visitors in the tie even if the home side dominate territory. It is not unblemished either: the single home defeat in that run was a 1-3 loss to Bayern München on 25 October.
- Freiburg's six competitive home matches in the tracked window (27 Aug to 25 Oct 2026): 5W-0D-1L, 3.17 goals for and 1.33 against per game, one clean sheet.
- Across those six home games Freiburg scored 19 and conceded 8; both teams scored in five of the six.
The officiating team is set for the match at Europa-Park Stadion. This fixes a fixture-specific administrative detail ahead of Freiburg versus Wolfsburg. The appointment does not itself establish a selection, tactical or preparation change for either side.
- Sören Storks is assigned as referee for the DFB-Pokal second-round match.
- Christian Bandurski and Asmir Osmanagic are the assistant referees, with Timo Gerach on video-assistant duties.
ConfirmedSources checked 28 Oct 2026, 11:36 · Europe/BucharestDFB fixture centredatencenter.dfb.de · 28 Oct 2026
Freiburg are scheduled to host this tie at Europa-Park Stadion at 18:00 local time. The venue and kick-off define the immediate fixture setting for both teams. No unusual pitch, weather or travel condition is established by the available evidence.
- The DFB-Pokal second-round match is scheduled for 28 October 2026.
- Kick-off is set for 18:00 local time at Europa-Park Stadion.
ConfirmedSources checked 28 Oct 2026, 11:36 · Europe/BucharestMatch schedulewww.augsburger-allgemeine.de · 28 Oct 2026

BetBugs edges

Compare BetBugs' chances with the market's.

Other edges · 8

The published chance does not exceed the market's implied chance.

Match WinnerwonUncertainty band: Near coin-flip

Freiburg

1.57fair 2.13

BetBugs 47% · Market 63.7%

−16.7ppshort

Freiburg are the higher-division team with a near-perfect home record, while Wolfsburg have been drawing rather than winning against weaker opposition.

Goals Over/UnderwonUncertainty band: Lean

Over 2.5

1.38fair 1.61

BetBugs 62% · Market 72.5%

−10.5ppshort

Both sides are involved in consistently high-scoring games, and Wolfsburg's recent matches have been especially open.

Both Teams to ScorewonUncertainty band: Lean

Yes

1.48fair 1.64

BetBugs 61% · Market 67.6%

−6.6ppshort

Neither defence is secure and Wolfsburg carry a steady scoring threat even away from home.

Away Goals TotalwonUncertainty band: Strong lean

Wolfsburg over 0.5

1.30fair 1.33

BetBugs 75% · Market 76.9%

−1.9ppshort

Wolfsburg find the net regularly and Freiburg rarely keep opponents out, especially at home.

Home Goals TotalwonUncertainty band: Lean

Freiburg over 1.5

1.43fair 1.67

BetBugs 60% · Market 69.9%

−9.9ppshort

Freiburg's home scoring rate is high and Wolfsburg's second-division defence has been generous.

1st Half GoalswonUncertainty band: Strong lean

Over 0.5 goals in 1st half

1.18fair 1.33

BetBugs 75% · Market 84.7%

−9.7ppshort

Both teams' first halves regularly produce at least one goal, with each side conceding before the break at a similar rate.

Home CornerswonUncertainty band: Lean

Freiburg over 5.5

1.50fair 1.67

BetBugs 60% · Market 66.7%

−6.7ppshort

Freiburg generate steady corner volume at home while Wolfsburg give away plenty on the road.

BetBugs probabilities

How likely BetBugs thought each outcome was.

Result1 of 1 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Market price 1.57
The read
Freiburg are the higher-division team with a near-perfect home record, while Wolfsburg have been drawing rather than winning against weaker opposition.
- Freiburg: 8W-1D-3L in 12 competitive matches, 2.58 goals for and 1.42 against per game
- Freiburg at home: 5W-0D-1L, 3.17 goals for and 1.33 against per game
- Wolfsburg are a 2. Bundesliga side this season: 4W-5D-1L in 10 competitive matches, 1.4 conceded per game
- Round one: Freiburg beat Düsseldorf 5-1; Wolfsburg needed a 6-5 penalty shootout against Altglienicke
BetBugs · Match WinnerwonFreiburgEstimated chance47%

Goals5 of 5 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Market price 1.38
The read
Both sides are involved in consistently high-scoring games, and Wolfsburg's recent matches have been especially open.
- Freiburg matches average 4.0 combined goals (2.58 for, 1.42 against)
- Wolfsburg matches average 3.7 combined goals (2.3 for, 1.4 against)
- Both teams scored in 9 of Freiburg's 12 and 6 of Wolfsburg's 10 competitive games
- Wolfsburg's last six: 1-1, 3-1, 4-4, 5-1, 0-1, 4-4
BetBugs · Goals Over/UnderwonOver 2.5Estimated chance62%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Market price 1.48
The read
Neither defence is secure and Wolfsburg carry a steady scoring threat even away from home.
- Both teams scored in 9 of Freiburg's 12 competitive matches and in 5 of their 6 home games
- Wolfsburg scored in five of their last six and conceded in five of six
- Wolfsburg conceded four goals twice in their last six (Nürnberg 4-4, Cottbus 4-4)
BetBugs · Both Teams to ScorewonYesEstimated chance61%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Market price 1.30
The read
Wolfsburg find the net regularly and Freiburg rarely keep opponents out, especially at home.
- Freiburg kept only 2 clean sheets in 12 competitive matches, 1 in 6 at home
- Wolfsburg scored in 7 of 10 competitive matches and in 5 of their last 6
- Wolfsburg average 2.3 goals per game overall and 2.2 in their five away matches
BetBugs · Away Goals TotalwonWolfsburg over 0.5Estimated chance75%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Market price 1.43
The read
Freiburg's home scoring rate is high and Wolfsburg's second-division defence has been generous.
- Freiburg average 2.58 goals per game overall and 3.17 across six home matches
- Freiburg scored in 11 of their 12 competitive matches
- Wolfsburg concede 1.5 goals per game and shipped four twice in their last six
BetBugs · Home Goals TotalwonFreiburg over 1.5Estimated chance60%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Market price 1.18
The read
Both teams' first halves regularly produce at least one goal, with each side conceding before the break at a similar rate.
- Freiburg's first halves average 1.83 goals (1.0 for, 0.83 against)
- Wolfsburg's first halves average 1.67 goals (0.83 for, 0.83 against)
- Freiburg scored a first-half goal in four of their last six; Wolfsburg in five of their last six
BetBugs · 1st Half GoalswonOver 0.5 goals in 1st halfEstimated chance75%

Match stats2 of 3 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Market price 1.60
The read
Both teams win a healthy number of corners, and Wolfsburg's away matches in particular are corner-heavy.
- Freiburg average 6.33 corners and concede 3.33, a 9.67 match total
- Wolfsburg average 6.4 corners and concede 6.3, a 12.7 match total
- Wolfsburg's five away games average 6.2 corners for and 7.8 against
BetBugs · Corners Over/UnderlostOver 9.5Estimated chance62%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Market price 1.50
The read
Freiburg generate steady corner volume at home while Wolfsburg give away plenty on the road.
- Freiburg average 6.33 corners per match and 6.0 in six home games
- Wolfsburg concede 6.3 corners per match overall and 7.8 in five away games
- Freiburg's opponents average only 3.33 corners, so territory should favour the home side
BetBugs · Home CornerswonFreiburg over 5.5Estimated chance60%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Freiburg's low shots-conceded rate pulls combined shot volume below the line despite Wolfsburg's open games.
- Freiburg matches average 27.1 total shots (18.3 for, 8.8 against)
- Wolfsburg matches average 34.0 total shots (18.4 for, 15.6 against)
- Wolfsburg's five away games average 36.2 shots, right at the line
BetBugs · Shots Over/UnderwonUnder 36.5Estimated chance60%