BundesligaFull time

Predictions graded

Freiburg1Wolfsburg1

HT 0–0Sun 3 May 2026, 17:30 Predictions graded

Predictions5–550%

Edges5–183%

PossPossession 63%–37%ShotsShots 11–13On targetOn target 3–4CornersCorners 1–7

Quick Take

Pre-match view

Context last updated 2 May 2026, 18:45 · Europe/Bucharest

Freiburg have the stronger home profile, the better recent H2H record, and the lighter injury situation, so Freiburg or Draw is the top actionable angle.

If you want more upside, Freiburg over 1.5 team goals fits the matchup better than the straight home win or the broader goals markets.

Context

M. Arnold and B. Dardai are both listed as missing in midfield.
- Defenders K. Fischer and J. Seelt are out, with Rogerio also listed as missing.
- J. Wind is unavailable in attack and Cleiton is only listed as questionable.
Freiburg played away at SC Braga in the UEFA Europa League on 2026-04-30.
- Their previous match was away at Borussia Dortmund on 2026-04-26.
- Wolfsburg have not played since the 0-0 draw with Borussia Mönchengladbach on 2026-04-25.
Wolfsburg start the round 17th on 25 points, one point below the relegation playoff line.
- They have won only 1 of their last 5 Bundesliga matches.
- Two of Wolfsburg's last 10 listed matches included a red card.
Intel flags Wolfsburg as still relatively early in Daniel Bauer's permanent spell.
- Welt reported in late December 2025 that Bauer was promoted permanently and signed through 2027.
- His early permanent run included a 3-4 defeat to Freiburg on 2025-12-20.

BetBugs edges

Compare BetBugs' chances with the market's.

Positive edges · 5

BetBugs probabilities

How likely BetBugs thought each outcome was.

Result2 of 3 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Freiburg's structural home edge, the clear H2H tilt, and Wolfsburg's heavier injury list make the home side the likelier winner even though Wolfsburg have stronger relegation stakes.
- Freiburg are 8W-4D-3L at home in the 2025 Bundesliga season, with 28 scored and 20 conceded in 15 matches.
- Wolfsburg are 4W-3D-8L away this league season and have allowed 35 goals in 15 away matches.
- Freiburg won 4 of the last 5 H2Hs with Wolfsburg between 2023-12-09 and 2025-12-20.
- Wolfsburg list M. Arnold, B. Dardai, K. Fischer, Rogerio, J. Seelt and J. Wind as missing, while Freiburg only list two questionables.
BetBugs · Match WinnerlostFreiburgEstimated chance57%
Signal quality High · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Specific venue and travel details are unavailable, but the season home-away split plus Wolfsburg's injury load make Freiburg avoiding defeat the stronger base case despite Wolfsburg's urgency.
- Freiburg avoided defeat in 12 of 15 home Bundesliga matches this season.
- Wolfsburg lost 8 of 15 away Bundesliga matches this season.
- Freiburg are 2W-0D-1L in their last 3 listed Bundesliga matches, while Wolfsburg are 1W-1D-3L in their last 5 league matches.
BetBugs · Double ChancewonFreiburg or DrawEstimated chance79%
Signal quality High · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Freiburg's stronger base level and home split make them the less likely side to be behind at halftime, while Wolfsburg's stakes keep the draw at the break a live outcome.
- Freiburg trailed at halftime in only 20% of their last 10 matches.
- Freiburg avoided a halftime deficit in 4 of their last 5 listed matches.
- Wolfsburg have only a 30% leading-at-halftime rate across their last 10 matches.
BetBugs · Double Chance First HalfwonFreiburg or DrawEstimated chance81%

Goals3 of 5 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Wolfsburg's open defensive profile and depleted back line, combined with Freiburg's steady scoring, support a game with at least three goals, while short-window fatigue data is unavailable in the input.
- Freiburg average 1.9 goals scored and 1.4 conceded across their last 10 matches.
- Wolfsburg average 1.2 goals scored and 2.2 conceded across their last 10 matches.
- Wolfsburg's last 5 Bundesliga matches have produced 16 total goals, an average of 3.2 per game.
- 3 of the last 5 H2Hs went over 2.5 goals, including 4-3 on 2025-12-20 and 3-2 on 2024-12-13.
BetBugs · Goals Over/UnderlostOver 2.5Estimated chance63%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Freiburg's home defense gives up enough chances to keep Wolfsburg live for a goal, but Wolfsburg's absences and 2.2 goals conceded per last-10 match still leave Freiburg likely to score as well.
- Freiburg concede 1.4 goals per match across their last 10 and 20 goals in 15 home league games this season.
- Wolfsburg have scored 41 goals in 31 Bundesliga matches and 20 in 15 away matches this season.
- 3 of the last 5 H2Hs saw both teams score between 2023-12-09 and 2025-12-20.
BetBugs · Both Teams to ScorewonYesEstimated chance56%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
The strongest structural and injury-based edge is Freiburg's attack against Wolfsburg's weakened away defense, which makes two home goals a reasonable expectation.
- Freiburg score 1.87 home goals per game in the 2025 Bundesliga season, with 28 in 15 matches.
- Wolfsburg concede 2.33 away goals per game this league season, with 35 in 15 matches.
- Freiburg scored in all 5 recent H2Hs and hit 2 or more goals in 3 of those 5 meetings.
- Wolfsburg are missing M. Arnold and several defenders ahead of this fixture.
BetBugs · Home Goals TotallostFreiburg over 1.5Estimated chance64%
Signal quality High · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Both teams bring enough first-half scoring and conceding activity for one goal before the break to rate clearly above even money.
- Freiburg average 0.8 first-half goals scored and 0.6 first-half goals conceded over their last 10 matches.
- Wolfsburg average 0.6 first-half goals scored and 0.8 first-half goals conceded over their last 10 matches.
- 4 of Freiburg's last 5 matches and 3 of Wolfsburg's last 5 league matches had a first-half goal.
BetBugs · 1st Half GoalswonOver 0.5 goals in 1st halfEstimated chance78%
Signal quality High · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Wolfsburg's tendency to allow more after the break and the pressure created by their relegation position support at least one second-half goal.
- Freiburg's last-10 averages imply about 1.1 second-half goals scored per match after subtracting their 0.8 first-half scoring from 1.9 total scoring.
- Wolfsburg's last-10 averages imply about 1.4 second-half goals conceded per match after subtracting 0.8 first-half conceded from 2.2 total conceded.
- 4 of Wolfsburg's last 5 Bundesliga matches had a second-half goal.
BetBugs · Goals Over Under Second HalfwonOver 0.5Estimated chance82%

Match stats0 of 2 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
The clearest tactical matchup edge in the provided data is Freiburg's shot generation against a Wolfsburg side that regularly allows volume, while detailed pressing and shape data are unavailable.
- Freiburg average 12.6 total shots across their last 10 matches.
- Wolfsburg allowed 78 shots across their last 5 Bundesliga matches, 15.6 per game.
- Freiburg generated 17 shots in their last listed home Bundesliga match against Heidenheim.
BetBugs · Home Shots TotallostFreiburg over 11.5Estimated chance64%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Relegation pressure should keep Wolfsburg's duel count high, and their recent foul and card baseline makes two or more away cards more likely than not.
- Wolfsburg average 2.1 yellow cards and 12.7 fouls across their last 10 matches.
- Wolfsburg received 2 or more yellow cards in 3 of their last 5 league matches, plus a red card against Werder Bremen.
- Wolfsburg start the round 17th on 25 points, one point below the relegation playoff line in the 2025 Bundesliga table.
BetBugs · Away Cards Over/UnderlostWolfsburg over 1.5Estimated chance62%

Head-to-Head

4W · 0D · 1W

W3-4VfL WolfsburgvSC FreiburgDec 20, 2025BL

W0-1VfL WolfsburgvSC FreiburgApr 26, 2025BL

L3-2SC FreiburgvVfL WolfsburgDec 13, 2024BL

W1-2SC FreiburgvVfL WolfsburgApr 27, 2024BL

W0-1VfL WolfsburgvSC FreiburgDec 9, 2023BL

Freiburg: 2 clean sheets3.4 goals/game avg

League Table

Bundesliga 2025/2026

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF-GA	Pts	Form
8	Freiburg	31	12	7	12	44-52	43	LWWLW
17	Wolfsburg Relegation	31	6	7	18	41-66	25	DWLLL

18pt gap between teamsWolfsburg in relegation zone

Recent Form

Freiburg

L1-2SC BragaApr 30UEF

L0-4Borussia DortmundApr 26BL

W2-11. FC HeidenheimApr 19BL

W3-1Celta VigoApr 16UEF

W1-0FSV Mainz 05Apr 12BL

W3-0Celta VigoApr 9UEF

L2-3Bayern MünchenApr 4BL

W2-1FC St. PauliMar 22BL

W5-1GenkMar 19UEF

L0-1Union BerlinMar 15BL

Wolfsburg

D0-0Borussia MönchengladbachApr 25BL

W2-1Union BerlinApr 18BL

L1-2Eintracht FrankfurtApr 11BL

L3-6Bayer LeverkusenApr 4BL

L0-1Werder BremenMar 21BL

D1-11899 HoffenheimMar 14BL

L1-2Hamburger SVMar 7BL

L0-4VfB StuttgartMar 1BL

L2-3FC AugsburgFeb 21BL

D2-2RB LeipzigFeb 15BL

Squad & Injuries

Freiburg

4 out

Attackers3

Midfielders2/9

×#6

Defenders2/11

×#37

Goalkeeper3

#6 P. Osterhage — Knee Injury

#37 M. Rosenfelder — Hamstring Injury

#6 P. Osterhage — Knee Injury

#37 M. Rosenfelder — Hamstring Injury

Wolfsburg

14 out

Attackers2/7

×#23

Midfielders4/13

×#27

×#8

×#27

×#8

Defenders4/9

×#2

×#14

×#2

×#14

Goalkeeper3

#27 M. Arnold — Groin Injury

#8 B. Dardai — Knee Injury

#2 K. Fischer — Thigh Injury

Rogerio — Muscle Injury

#14 J. Seelt — Knee Injury

#23 J. Wind — Muscle Injury

Cleiton — Ankle Injury

#27 M. Arnold — Groin Injury

#8 B. Dardai — Knee Injury

#2 K. Fischer — Thigh Injury

Rogerio — Muscle Injury

#14 J. Seelt — Knee Injury

#23 J. Wind — Muscle Injury

Cleiton — Ankle Injury

Quick Take

Context

BetBugs edges

Freiburg or Draw

Freiburg or Draw

Over 1.5

Over 0.5

Over 2.5

Over 0.5

Result2 of 3 landed

Goals3 of 5 landed

Match stats0 of 2 landed

Head-to-Head

League Table

Recent Form

Freiburg

Wolfsburg

Squad & Injuries

Freiburg

Wolfsburg