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Freiburg - Wolfsburg
🇩🇪 BundesligaUpcoming
Sunday, May 3, 2026 at 17:30
Quick Take
Freiburg have the stronger home profile, the better recent H2H record, and the lighter injury situation, so Freiburg or Draw is the top actionable angle. If you want more upside, Freiburg over 1.5 team goals fits the matchup better than the straight home win or the broader goals markets.
2 Nd Half Goals Over/UnderOver 0.582%+0.0pp
1 St Half Double ChanceHome or Draw81%+6.0pp
Double ChanceHome or Draw79%+11.0pp
Context Signals
Betting Edges
Market & pick
Implied
Model
Edge
Model probabilities
Market & pick
Model
Markets to Avoid
Match Winner Home (Freiburg):Our Freiburg win estimate still sits 17 points above the market's 40% implied rate, which is too wide for a liquid 1X2 and suggests late lineup or motivation information may be missing, so the safer expression is Home or Draw.
Handicap Result Home (-1):All five recent Freiburg-Wolfsburg meetings were settled by a single goal, so asking Freiburg to win by 2+ in a three-way handicap with roughly 10% margin is too aggressive for this matchup.
1st Half Result Home (Freiburg):The first-half signal supports Freiburg avoiding a deficit rather than leading outright, and the first-half 1X2 book carries about a 10% overround in a market where halftime draws remain common.
Freiburg come into this with the cleaner statistical profile, and the case is backed by multiple angles rather than one noisy trend. They are 8W-4D-3L at home in the Bundesliga, while Wolfsburg are 4W-3D-8L away and have conceded 35 goals in 15 road matches. The recent head-to-head is also hard to ignore: Freiburg have won four of the last five league meetings.
The squad context adds to that lean. Wolfsburg's missing list is much heavier in the provided data, including M. Arnold, B. Dardai, K. Fischer, Rogerio, J. Seelt and J. Wind, while Freiburg only carry two questionables.
Recent Form
Freiburg
L1-2SC BragaApr 30UEF
L0-4Borussia DortmundApr 26BL
W2-11. FC HeidenheimApr 19BL
W3-1Celta VigoApr 16UEF
W1-0FSV Mainz 05Apr 12BL
W3-0Celta VigoApr 9UEF
L2-3Bayern MünchenApr 4BL
W2-1FC St. PauliMar 22BL
W5-1GenkMar 19UEF
L0-1Union BerlinMar 15BL
Wolfsburg
D0-0Borussia MönchengladbachApr 25BL
W2-1Union BerlinApr 18BL
L1-2Eintracht FrankfurtApr 11BL
L3-6Bayer LeverkusenApr 4BL
L0-1Werder BremenMar 21BL
D1-11899 HoffenheimMar 14BL
L1-2Hamburger SVMar 7BL
L0-4VfB StuttgartMar 1BL
L2-3FC AugsburgFeb 21BL
D2-2RB LeipzigFeb 15BL
League Table
Bundesliga 2025/2026| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF-GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8 | Freiburg | 31 | 12 | 7 | 12 | 44-52 | 43 |
| 17 | Wolfsburg Relegation | 31 | 6 | 7 | 18 | 41-66 | 25 |
18pt gap between teamsWolfsburg in relegation zone
Head-to-Head
4W · 0D · 1WW3-4VfL WolfsburgvSC FreiburgDec 20, 2025BL
W0-1VfL WolfsburgvSC FreiburgApr 26, 2025BL
L3-2SC FreiburgvVfL WolfsburgDec 13, 2024BL
W1-2SC FreiburgvVfL WolfsburgApr 27, 2024BL
W0-1VfL WolfsburgvSC FreiburgDec 9, 2023BL
Freiburg: 2 clean sheets3.4 goals/game avg
Squad & Injuries
Freiburg
4 out#6 P. Osterhage — Knee Injury
#37 M. Rosenfelder — Hamstring Injury
#6 P. Osterhage — Knee Injury
#37 M. Rosenfelder — Hamstring Injury
Wolfsburg
14 out#27 M. Arnold — Groin Injury
#8 B. Dardai — Knee Injury
#2 K. Fischer — Thigh Injury
Rogerio — Muscle Injury
#14 J. Seelt — Knee Injury
#23 J. Wind — Muscle Injury
Cleiton — Ankle Injury
#27 M. Arnold — Groin Injury
#8 B. Dardai — Knee Injury
#2 K. Fischer — Thigh Injury
Rogerio — Muscle Injury
#14 J. Seelt — Knee Injury
#23 J. Wind — Muscle Injury
Cleiton — Ankle Injury