Freiburg - Heidenheim

🇩🇪 BundesligaUpcoming

Sunday, April 19, 2026 at 13:30

Quick Take

Freiburg's dominant home record (1.86 GPG, 7W in 14 at Schwarzwald-Stadion) exploits Heidenheim's catastrophic away form (1W in 14, 0.79 GPG) and missing defensive personnel; back **Freiburg –1.0 @ 2.70** (42% model vs 37% implied) for the strongest edge.

Total Goals HomeOver 1.5 (Freiburg)0.68%+4.3pp

Asian HandicapFreiburg -1.00.42%+5.0pp

Context Signals

Asian Handicap — Freiburg -1.0

HIGHMarket

Freiburg scored 2+ goals in 57% of home matches this season while Heidenheim concede -1.29 goals per away game; market underprices the probability of a 2+ margin win given the structural gap in home/away performance.

•Freiburg 2+ goals in 8/14 home matches (57%)
•Heidenheim -1.29 GD per away game, conceded 29 in 14 away matches
•Freiburg won last H2H at home 1-0, won 3-0 away in Sep 2024

Total Goals Home — Over 1.5 (Freiburg)

MEDIUMMarket

Freiburg's strong home scoring average (1.86/game) combined with Heidenheim's league-worst away defense (2.07 goals conceded per away match) and missing key defenders (Gimber, Paqarada) makes 2+ Freiburg goals the clear lean.

•Freiburg: 1.86 goals/game at home (26 in 14 matches)
•Heidenheim: 2.07 goals conceded/away game (29 in 14 away)
•Heidenheim missing defenders Gimber and Paqarada

Betting Edges

Implied: 63.7% → Our estimate: 68% → Edge: +4.3pts

•Freiburg: 1.86 goals/game at home (26 in 14 matches)
•Heidenheim: 2.07 goals conceded/away game (29 in 14 away)
•Heidenheim missing defenders Gimber and Paqarada

Implied: 37% → Our estimate: 42% → Edge: +5pts

•Freiburg 2+ goals in 8/14 home matches (57%)
•Heidenheim -1.29 GD per away game, conceded 29 in 14 away matches
•Freiburg won last H2H at home 1-0, won 3-0 away in Sep 2024

Model probabilities

Double ChanceFreiburg or Draw82%High

Heidenheim's single away win all season against Freiburg's respectable home fortress makes a Heidenheim away victory highly unlikely, even accounting for relegation desperation.

Signal quality: High · Uncertainty band: Strong lean

Home Goals TotalOver 1.568%High

Freiburg's strong home scoring rate combined with Heidenheim's league-worst away defensive record and defensive injuries makes 2+ Freiburg goals the most likely scenario.

Signal quality: High · Uncertainty band: Strong lean

Cards Over/UnderOver 3.565%Medium

Ittrich's above-average card rate (4.37/game) applied to a relegation-pressure match featuring a desperate Heidenheim side strongly supports over 3.5 total yellows.

Signal quality: Medium · Uncertainty band: Strong lean

Goals Over/UnderOver 2.558%Medium

Heidenheim's porous away defense (29 conceded in 14 away games) combined with Freiburg's home attacking output and a generally high-scoring H2H series supports over 2.5 goals.

Signal quality: Medium · Uncertainty band: Lean

Home Clean SheetNo58%Medium

Freiburg's home clean sheet rate of ~29% and Heidenheim's recent goal-scoring uptick (including 3 vs Leverkusen, 3 vs Union Berlin) suggest Heidenheim will likely breach Freiburg's defense at least once.

Signal quality: Medium · Uncertainty band: Lean

Corners Over/UnderUnder 9.558%Medium

Both teams generate modest corner counts and Heidenheim's low away possession limits their offensive set-piece generation, keeping the combined corner total likely below 10.

Signal quality: Medium · Uncertainty band: Lean

1st Half GoalsUnder 1.558%Medium

Both teams' modest first-half goal outputs and the H2H pattern of tight first halves (3 of 5 level at break) favor under 1.5 first-half goals.

Signal quality: Medium · Uncertainty band: Lean

Match WinnerFreiburg57%High

Freiburg's solid home record combined with Heidenheim's catastrophic away form (1 win in 14) and depleted attacking options creates a strong structural home advantage that outweighs any desperation-driven uplift.

Signal quality: High · Uncertainty band: Slight lean

Home Shots TotalOver 11.555%Medium

Freiburg's baseline shot output of 12.2 combined with Heidenheim's tendency to allow opponents significant shooting opportunities on the road supports Freiburg exceeding 11.5 shots.

Signal quality: Medium · Uncertainty band: Slight lean

Both Teams to ScoreYes52%Medium

While Heidenheim's away attack is weak (0.79 GPG away), Freiburg's home defense isn't watertight (1.36 GA at home) and Heidenheim's recent scoring run in their last 4 matches (10 goals) slightly favors both teams finding the net.

Signal quality: Medium · Uncertainty band: Slight lean

Asian HandicapFreiburg -142%Medium

The massive quality gap in home-vs-away splits and Heidenheim's -1.29 goal differential per away game gives Freiburg a reasonable chance of winning by 2+, though Heidenheim's desperation adds variance.

Signal quality: Medium · Uncertainty band: Near coin-flip

Markets to Avoid

Double Chance Freiburg or Draw:Whilst statistically sound (82% model vs 84.7% implied), the tight margin and high vig on low-odds (-0.12 edge) leaves minimal buffering if Heidenheim's relegation desperation drives a late equaliser or upset. Safer to back Freiburg -1 if pursuing this thesis.

1st Half Result Freiburg:Freiburg's first-half leading rate (30%) does not support the 2.10 odds (47.6% implied). First-half form is volatile; insufficient conviction relative to odds offered.

Goals Over/Under Over 2.5:Predictor estimates 58% but odds at 1.62 imply 61.7%—no edge margin. The vig is tight and no mispricing exists; medium confidence doesn't justify the odds cost.

Freiburg enters this Bundesliga clash as overwhelming favorites, and the underlying data supports that positioning. The hosts sit 8th on 40 points with a solid home record (7W–4D–3L), while Heidenheim arrive from bottom place on 19 points with the league's worst away record: just 1 win in 14 matches. That catastrophic 1W–13 away run (11 goals for, 29 against) presents a structural advantage that even relegation desperation may struggle to overcome. Freiburg's home-ground averages tell the story—1.86 goals per game offensively, 1.

Recent Form

Freiburg

W3-1Celta VigoApr 16UEF

W1-0FSV Mainz 05Apr 12BL

W3-0Celta VigoApr 9UEF

L2-3Bayern MünchenApr 4BL

W2-1FC St. PauliMar 22BL

W5-1GenkMar 19UEF

L0-1Union BerlinMar 15BL

L0-1GenkMar 12UEF

D3-3Bayer LeverkusenMar 7BL

L0-2Eintracht FrankfurtMar 1BL

Heidenheim

W3-1Union BerlinApr 11BL

D2-2Borussia MönchengladbachApr 4BL

D3-3Bayer LeverkusenMar 21BL

L0-1Eintracht FrankfurtMar 14BL

L2-41899 HoffenheimMar 7BL

L0-2Werder BremenFeb 28BL

D3-3VfB StuttgartFeb 22BL

L0-1FC AugsburgFeb 15BL

L0-2Hamburger SVFeb 7BL

L2-3Borussia DortmundFeb 1BL

League Table

Bundesliga 2025/2026

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF-GA	Pts	Form
8	Freiburg	29	11	7	11	42-47	40	WLWLD
18	Heidenheim Relegation	29	4	7	18	32-64	19	WDDLL

21pt gap between teamsHeidenheim in relegation zone

Head-to-Head

1W · 1D · 3W

L2-11. FC HeidenheimvSC FreiburgDec 6, 2025BL

L1-0SC Freiburgv1. FC HeidenheimFeb 8, 2025BL

W0-31. FC HeidenheimvSC FreiburgSep 21, 2024BL

D1-1SC FreiburgvFC HeidenheimMay 11, 2024BL

L3-2FC HeidenheimvSC FreiburgDec 20, 2023BL

2.8 goals/game avg

Squad & Injuries

Freiburg

6 out

Attackers2

Midfielders2/10

×#6

Defenders2/11

×#37

Goalkeeper3

D. Kyereh — Lacking Match Fitness

#6 P. Osterhage — Knee Injury

#37 M. Rosenfelder — Hamstring Injury

D. Kyereh — Lacking Match Fitness

#6 P. Osterhage — Knee Injury

#37 M. Rosenfelder — Hamstring Injury

Heidenheim

8 out

Attackers4/7

×#31

×#29

×#31

×#29

Midfielders2/9

×#5

Defenders8

Goalkeeper3

#31 S. Conteh — Knee Injury

#5 B. Gimber — Knock

#29 M. Kaufmann — Injury

L. Paqarada — Knee Injury

#31 S. Conteh — Knee Injury

#5 B. Gimber — Knock

#29 M. Kaufmann — Injury

L. Paqarada — Knee Injury