Bayer Leverkusen2Freiburg1

HT 1–1Sun 18 Oct 2026, 13:30 Predictions graded

Predictions11–379%

Edges2–340%

PossPossession 49%–51%ShotsShots 12–11On targetOn target 5–2CornersCorners 4–3

Quick Take

Pre-match view

Context last updated 14 Oct 2026, 01:45 · Europe/Bucharest

Freiburg's club-record start meets Leverkusen's perfect home league record, with both clubs also playing in Europe on Thursday.

Leverkusen's home scoring and the 2-0 win in the last meeting here give them the edge, but Freiburg's unbeaten run and 2.91 goals a game keep the away side live. Three prices offer something: Freiburg or a draw at 2.05, both teams not to score at 2.38, and the draw at 4.20. Over 2.5 goals at 1.45 and a Leverkusen win at 1.67 do not.

Context

Freiburg arrive on a club-record 13 points from five Bundesliga games, level with Borussia Dortmund at the top, while Leverkusen are fourth on 10 after a 4-3 win at Mainz. The standings frame the contest as a test of Freiburg's unbeaten start rather than a routine away day, and the gap between the sides is small. Only five matches have been played, so the table exaggerates the separation and Leverkusen have already faced a demanding run. The result will not settle either season, but it decides which side carries the early pace.
- Freiburg have taken 13 points from five Bundesliga matches, a club record at this stage of a season.
- Freiburg lead the table level on points with Borussia Dortmund and ahead of Bayern Munich.
- Leverkusen sit fourth on 10 points after a 4-3 win at Mainz.
ConfirmedSources checked 14 Oct 2026, 01:44 · Europe/Bucharest
Suzuki was sent off in the 64th minute of Freiburg's 2-1 win over Schalke and will miss the next Bundesliga match through suspension. Freiburg closed that game with ten men and still won it late through Keisuke Goto, so the ban removes a forward option from the squad travelling to Leverkusen and forces a reshuffle of the attacking positions. Freiburg's depth has absorbed absences during their unbeaten start, which limits how much the suspension should shift the assessment, but it narrows the coach's choices for a fixture decided by fine margins.
- Suzuki collected a yellow card then a red in the 64th minute against Schalke.
- Freiburg finished the match with ten men and won it late through a Keisuke Goto goal.
- Y. Suzuki started 4 of the 5 recent team fixtures with available lineups.
ConfirmedSources checked 14 Oct 2026, 01:44 · Europe/Bucharest
Ben Seghir has picked up another injury, one the club expects to be brief but the latest in a recurring pattern that has repeatedly interrupted his spell at Leverkusen. For this fixture it leaves a creative option uncertain and raises the question of whether the staff can rely on him week to week. Leverkusen have other attacking routes, including a settled striker and wide options, so the practical effect is limited unless the problem proves longer than described. The pattern itself, rather than the single setback, is the story.
- Ben Seghir has sustained another injury during his Leverkusen spell.
- The setback is not expected to be long-term, but it continues a recurring pattern that has interrupted his time at the club.
- E. Ben Seghir started 0 of the 5 recent team fixtures with available lineups.
- P. Schick started in the same position in 4 of the 5 recent team fixtures with available lineups when E. Ben Seghir did not start.
ReportedSources checked 14 Oct 2026, 01:44 · Europe/Bucharest
Both clubs play European league-phase fixtures on Thursday, three days before this game, with Leverkusen travelling to Lech Poznań in the Europa League and Freiburg hosting Jablonec in the Conference League. The extra journey and shorter recovery window fall on Leverkusen, and Poznań is close to a full house, adding a demanding away environment on top of the trip. Freiburg avoid travel and stay at home. Rotation is likely for both, so the schedule may dilute rather than decide the contest, but it is a genuine preparation factor on a short turnaround.
- Leverkusen play away at Lech Poznań in the Europa League on Thursday 15 October.
- Freiburg host FK Jablonec in the Conference League on the same evening.
- The Poznań ground is effectively sold out for the game.
ConfirmedSources checked 14 Oct 2026, 01:44 · Europe/Bucharest

BetBugs edges

Compare BetBugs' chances with the market's.

Positive edges · 3

BetBugs probabilities

How likely BetBugs thought each outcome was.

Result4 of 4 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Leverkusen's home scoring and clean-sheet record plus the last meeting give them the stronger claim, while Freiburg's away form is less dominant than their table position.
- Leverkusen competitive record 5W-2D-1L, goals for 2.63 and against 1.13 per match
- Leverkusen home league record 2 wins from 2 with 6 scored and none conceded
- Freiburg away league record 1W-1D-0L with 3 scored and 2 conceded
- Last meeting at Leverkusen finished 2-0 to the home side
BetBugs · Match WinnerwonBayer LeverkusenEstimated chance46%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Both teams' first-half scoring is moderate, so a level opening period is the most likely single outcome.
- Leverkusen first-half goals for 1.0 and against 0.5 per match
- Freiburg first-half goals for 1.18 and against 0.82 per match
- Leverkusen home first-half goals against 0
BetBugs · First Half WinnerwonDrawEstimated chance40%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Leverkusen's second-half scoring and stronger home defence give them the better claim after the break.
- Leverkusen second-half goals for 1.625 and against 0.625 per match
- Freiburg second-half goals for 1.727 and against 0.455 per match
- Leverkusen second-half goals for at home 1.25 per match
BetBugs · Second Half WinnerwonBayer LeverkusenEstimated chance42%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Leverkusen start strongly at home and rarely trail early, giving them the better first-half claim. Both teams' first-half scoring is moderate, so a level opening period is the most likely single outcome.
- Leverkusen first-half goals for 1.0 and against 0.5 per match
- Leverkusen first-half goals against at home 0
- Freiburg first-half goals for 1.18 and against 0.82 per match
BetBugs · Double Chance First HalfwonBayer Leverkusen or DrawEstimated chance77%

Goals5 of 7 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Market price 1.45
The read
Both sides score and concede at rates that point to a high-scoring game.
- Leverkusen competitive goals for 2.63 and against 1.13 per match
- Freiburg competitive goals for 2.91 per match
- Recent meetings produced 3-3, 2-2, 5-1 and 3-2
BetBugs · Goals Over/UnderwonOver 2.5Estimated chance65%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Both teams find the net regularly, and Freiburg's scoring run makes a response likely even if Leverkusen lead.
- Freiburg scored in 10 of 11 competitive matches
- Leverkusen scored in all 8 competitive matches
- Both teams scored in 8 of Freiburg's 11 competitive matches
BetBugs · Both Teams to ScorewonYesEstimated chance54%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Leverkusen have scored multiple goals in most matches, making two or more at home plausible.
- Leverkusen overall goals for 2.63 per match
- Leverkusen home goals for 2.25 per match
- Leverkusen scored 4 in two recent home league wins
BetBugs · Home Goals TotalwonBayer Leverkusen over 1.5Estimated chance58%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Freiburg's consistent scoring makes it more likely than not that they find a goal.
- Freiburg scored in 10 of 11 competitive matches
- Leverkusen clean sheets 4 of 8 competitive matches
- Freiburg away goals for 2.6 per match
BetBugs · Team to ScorewonFreiburg to scoreEstimated chance67%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Market price 1.20
The read
Both teams regularly score before the break, making at least one first-half goal likely.
- Leverkusen first-half goals for plus against 1.5 per match
- Freiburg first-half goals for plus against 2.0 per match
- Freiburg scored a first-half goal in all 6 recent matches
- Leverkusen scored a first-half goal in 5 of 6 recent matches
BetBugs · 1st Half GoalswonOver 0.5 goals in 1st halfEstimated chance78%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Leverkusen's clean first-half home record makes both teams scoring early the less likely outcome.
- Leverkusen have not conceded a first-half goal at home
- Leverkusen first-half goals against 0.5 per match
- Freiburg first-half goals against 0.82 per match
BetBugs · Both Teams Score First HalflostNoEstimated chance74%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Second halves have produced the bulk of goals for both teams, so two or more after the break is likely.
- Leverkusen second-half goals for plus against 2.25 per match
- Freiburg second-half goals for plus against 2.18 per match
- Freiburg second-half goals for 2.0 per match in their last four
BetBugs · Goals Over Under Second HalflostOver 1.5Estimated chance70%

Match stats2 of 3 landed

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Freiburg's matches have generally finished below this line, pulling the expected total under.
- Freiburg corners 5.27 and opponent corners 3.18 per match, combined 8.45
- Leverkusen corners 7.13 and opponent corners 3.25 per match, combined 10.38
- Freiburg recent matches show totals of 8, 9 and 11
BetBugs · Corners Over/UnderwonUnder 10.5Estimated chance53%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Both teams' combined on-target totals have mostly stayed below 13, favouring the under.
- Leverkusen shots on target 7.13 and opponent 3.63, combined 10.75
- Freiburg shots on target 6.45 and opponent 2.82, combined 9.27
- Freiburg recent matches produced 5, 10, 9 and 8 combined shots on target
BetBugs · Shots on Target Over/UnderwonUnder 13.5Estimated chance74%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Both teams' matches average above three cards, and recent Freiburg games have been feisty.
- Leverkusen yellows 1.13 and opponent yellows 2.0 per match, combined 3.13
- Freiburg yellows 1.18 and opponent yellows 2.0 per match, combined 3.18
- Recent Freiburg matches produced 4, 5 and 6 total cards
BetBugs · Cards Over/UnderlostOver 2.5Estimated chance55%

Prediction history

Bayer Leverkusen: 3/5 recent goals projections matched

3 of 5 comparable goals projections involving Bayer Leverkusen matched the recorded result. This is a limited recent sample, not a guarantee for this match.

Recent evidence for Bayer Leverkusen5 matches

Date / competitionMatch resultPredictedActualResult

16 May·Bundesliga