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Predictions graded

AC Milan2Bologna4

HT 2–1Wed 28 Oct 2026, 17:30 Predictions graded

Predictions2–529%

Edges2–529%

PossPossession 66%–34%ShotsShots 8–9On targetOn target 3–5CornersCorners 2–3

Quick Take

Pre-match view

Context last updated 27 Oct 2026, 03:43 · Europe/Bucharest

Milan are unbeaten in Serie A and perfect at home, but Bologna have won two away games and Milan lost 0-3 at Bournemouth on 22 October.

Milan winning is the likeliest outcome; at 1.6 the price asks too much. The quotes offering something are under 2.5 goals at 1.91 and under 1.5 first-half goals at 1.44.

Context

Two 26 October reports identify a left-thigh injury and say Loftus-Cheek will not be available against Bologna. That removes a midfield option from Milan's matchday selection and may require a replacement in that unit. The reports are not a club medical statement, so the availability change remains reported rather than officially confirmed.
- Calciomercato.it reported on 26 October that tests found a lesion in the flexor muscle of Loftus-Cheek's left thigh and said he would miss Bologna.
- Universo A.C. Milan separately reported that the injury would rule him out for at least two weeks, including the Bologna match.
ReportedSources checked 27 Oct 2026, 03:41 · Europe/Bucharest
MilanPress's 26 October preview describes Palladino considering changes following Bologna's previous fixture, with specific alternatives named. That makes Bologna's likely midfield and attacking selection less settled for the trip to AC Milan. The report does not give a final XI, and no official team news was available in the X evidence.
- MilanPress reported on 26 October that Palladino was considering turnover for the Milan trip.
- The report named N. Moro and S. Mbangula as options to come in and said A. Dovbyk was heading for the bench.
ReportedSources checked 27 Oct 2026, 03:41 · Europe/Bucharest
Milan's home league sample is only three matches, but eight goals for and two against is the strongest part of their start. Bologna are 2W-0D-2L on the road with four scored and three conceded, so they have travelled competently. Milan's edge here rests on that league form rather than on their recent European outing.
- Serie A 2026-27 standings after eight rounds: Milan are 4th with 18 points, a 5W-3D-0L record, 16 goals for and 7 against.
- Milan's home record in that same eight-game sample: 3W-0D-0L, 8 goals for, 2 against.
- Bologna are 13th with 8 points from eight games (2W-2D-4L) and an away record of 2W-0D-2L, 4 for and 3 against.
The last two league meetings both went Milan's way without conceding: 3-0 in Bologna in February 2026 and 1-0 at home in September 2025. The counterweight is the Coppa Italia, where Bologna won 1-0 at San Siro in May 2025. Bologna also won 2-1 at home in February 2025, so the series is closer than the league run suggests.
- 3 Feb 2026, Serie A in Bologna: Bologna 0-3 AC Milan.
- 14 Sep 2025, Serie A at San Siro: AC Milan 1-0 Bologna.
- 14 May 2025, Coppa Italia at San Siro: AC Milan 0-1 Bologna.
- 27 Feb 2025, Serie A in Bologna: Bologna 2-1 AC Milan.

BetBugs edges

Compare BetBugs' chances with the market's.

Positive edges · 2

Other edges · 5

The published chance does not exceed the market's implied chance.

Match WinnerlostUncertainty band: Lean

AC Milan

1.60fair 1.72

BetBugs 58% · Market 62.5%

−4.5ppshort

Milan's unbeaten league run and strong home record give them the clearer route to victory.

Away Goals TotallostUncertainty band: Strong lean

Bologna under 1.5

1.22fair 1.37

BetBugs 73% · Market 82%

−9.0ppshort

Bologna's attacking absences and modest away output make one goal or fewer likely.

Corners Draw No BetlostUncertainty band: Slight lean

AC Milan, draw no bet on corners

1.25fair 1.75

BetBugs 57% · Market 80%

−23.0ppshort

Bologna give up plenty of corners, and Milan's home split favours them in the corner count.

BetBugs probabilities

How likely BetBugs thought each outcome was.

Result0 of 1 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Market price 1.60
The read
Milan's unbeaten league run and strong home record give them the clearer route to victory.
- AC Milan are 5W-3D-0L in Serie A and 3W-0D-0L at home with 8 goals for and 2 against.
- Bologna are 13th with 2W-2D-4L and are missing attackers Orsolini and Piccoli.
- Recent league H2H: Milan won 3-0 at Bologna in Feb 2026 and 1-0 at home in Sep 2025.
BetBugs · Match WinnerlostAC MilanEstimated chance58%

Goals1 of 4 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Market price 1.91
The read
Bologna's reduced attack and low away scoring make a high-scoring game less likely.
- Milan average 1.82 goals scored and 1.09 conceded; Bologna average 1.22 and 1.44.
- Bologna away averages are 1.0 goal scored and 0.75 conceded per match.
- Bologna are missing attacking options Orsolini and Piccoli.
BetBugs · Goals Over/UnderlostUnder 2.5Estimated chance55%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Market price 1.44
The read
Both sides start slowly by the numbers, pointing to few first-half goals.
- Milan average 0.55 first-half goals for and 0.45 against.
- Bologna average 0.56 first-half goals for and 0.33 against; away 0.25 for and 0.0 against.
- Both teams' first-half scoring is well below one goal per match.
BetBugs · 1st Half GoalslostUnder 1.5 goals in 1st halfEstimated chance78%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Market price 1.22
The read
Bologna's attacking absences and modest away output make one goal or fewer likely.
- Bologna average 1.0 goal per away match and 1.22 overall.
- Bologna are without injured attackers Orsolini and Piccoli.
- Milan have kept four clean sheets in 11 competitive matches.
BetBugs · Away Goals TotallostBologna under 1.5Estimated chance73%
Signal quality High · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Market price 1.13
The read
Milan's scoring record at home makes at least one goal the likely outcome.
- Milan have scored in 9 of 11 competitive matches.
- Milan scored in 3 of 4 home matches and scored 8 goals in 3 league home games.
- Bologna have conceded in 3 of 4 away matches.
BetBugs · Home Goals TotalwonAC Milan over 0.5Estimated chance84%

Match stats1 of 2 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Market price 1.50
The read
Milan's matches are low on total corners, and the combined home/away split sits below the line.
- Milan average 3.73 corners for and 3.36 against, a 7.09 total.
- Bologna average 3.67 corners for and 5.67 against, a 9.34 total.
- Milan home total is 6.25 corners; Bologna away total is 8.25.
BetBugs · Corners Over/UnderwonUnder 9.5Estimated chance62%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Market price 1.25
The read
Bologna give up plenty of corners, and Milan's home split favours them in the corner count.
- Milan average 4.0 home corners and concede 2.25 at home.
- Bologna average 2.75 away corners and concede 5.5 away.
- Bologna concede 5.67 corners per match overall.
BetBugs · Corners Draw No BetlostAC Milan, draw no bet on cornersEstimated chance57%

Markets to Avoid

High-risk markets where price or context leaves too little cushion.

The 1.6 price requires 62.5%, above our 58.0% estimate.

Prediction history

AC Milan: 2/6 recent goals projections matched

2 of 6 comparable goals projections involving AC Milan matched the recorded result. This is a limited recent sample, not a guarantee for this match.

Recent evidence for AC Milan6 matches

Date / competitionMatch resultPredictedActualResult

24 May·Serie A

AC Milan1-2

Cagliari

BetBugsUnder 2.5 goals·58%→3 total goals

Missed

24 May 2026

Serie A

AC Milan1-2

Cagliari

Under 2.5 goals

58%probability

3 total goals

Missed

17 May·Serie A

Genoa1-2

AC Milan

BetBugsUnder 2.5 goals·60%→3 total goals

Missed

17 May 2026

Serie A

Genoa1-2

AC Milan

Under 2.5 goals

60%probability

3 total goals

Missed

10 May·Serie A

AC Milan2-3

Atalanta

BetBugsUnder 2.5 goals·55%→5 total goals

Missed

10 May 2026

Serie A

AC Milan2-3

Atalanta

Under 2.5 goals

55%probability

5 total goals

Missed

26 Apr·Serie A

AC Milan0-0

Juventus

BetBugsUnder 2.5 goals·72%→0 total goals

Matched

26 Apr 2026

Serie A

AC Milan0-0

Juventus

Under 2.5 goals

72%probability

0 total goals

Matched

19 Apr·Serie A

Hellas Verona0-1

AC Milan

BetBugsUnder 2.5 goals·52%→1 total goal

Matched

19 Apr 2026

Serie A

Hellas Verona0-1

AC Milan

Under 2.5 goals

52%probability

1 total goal

Matched

Head-to-Head

3W · 0D · 2W

W0-3BolognavAC MilanFeb 3, 2026SA

W1-0AC MilanvBolognaSep 14, 2025SA

L0-1AC MilanvBolognaMay 14, 2025CI

W3-1AC MilanvBolognaMay 9, 2025SA

L2-1BolognavAC MilanFeb 27, 2025SA

AC Milan: 2 clean sheets2.4 goals/game avg

League Table

Serie A 2026/2027

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF-GA	Pts	Form
4	AC Milan Champions League league stage	8	5	3	0	16-7	18	WWDWD
13	Bologna	8	2	2	4	8-10	8	WLWDL

10pt gap between teams

Recent Form

AC Milan

W2-0UdineseOct 25SA

L0-3BournemouthOct 22UEF

W3-2AtalantaOct 18SA

W4-0Red Bull SalzburgOct 15UEF

W4-2Manchester UnitedAug 15FRI

L0-3ChelseaAug 8FRI

D1-1InterAug 5FRI

D2-2CelticJul 25FRI

Bologna

L0-1BrightonAug 15FRI

L1-4PisaAug 8FRI

W3-1CambuurAug 1FRI

W2-0Iraklis 1908Jul 25FRI

D1-11. FC HeidenheimJul 22FRI

L0-4Arminia BielefeldJul 18FRI

D3-3InterMay 23SA

Squad & Injuries

AC Milan

14 out

Attackers4

Midfielders10/14

×#21

×#56

×#8

×#22

×#12

×#21

×#56

×#8

×#22

×#12

Defenders4/9

×#46

×#34

×#46

×#34

Goalkeeper5

#21 S. Chukwueze — Hip Injury

#46 M. Gabbia — Thigh Injury

#56 A. Saelemaekers — Ankle Injury

#34 M. Gila — Ankle Injury

#8 R. Loftus-Cheek — Thigh Injury

#22 D. Moreira — Thigh Injury

#12 A. Rabiot — Calf Injury

#21 S. Chukwueze — Hip Injury

#46 M. Gabbia — Thigh Injury

#56 A. Saelemaekers — Ankle Injury

#34 M. Gila — Ankle Injury

#8 R. Loftus-Cheek — Thigh Injury

#22 D. Moreira — Thigh Injury

#12 A. Rabiot — Calf Injury

Bologna

6 out

Attackers4/10

×#7

×#91

×#7

×#91

Midfielders2/11

×#2

Defenders9

Goalkeeper5

#2 E. Holm — Thigh Injury

#7 R. Orsolini — Thigh Injury

#91 R. Piccoli — Hamstring Injury

#2 E. Holm — Thigh Injury

#7 R. Orsolini — Thigh Injury

#91 R. Piccoli — Hamstring Injury

Quick Take

Context

BetBugs edges

Under 2.5

Under 1.5 goals in 1st half

AC Milan

Bologna under 1.5

Under 9.5

AC Milan, draw no bet on corners

AC Milan over 0.5

Result0 of 1 landed

Goals1 of 4 landed

Match stats1 of 2 landed

Markets to Avoid

AC Milan over 0.5

Head-to-Head

League Table

Recent Form

AC Milan

Bologna

Squad & Injuries

AC Milan

Bologna