Cagliari0Bologna2

HT 0–0Sat 24 Oct 2026, 13:00 Predictions graded

Predictions5–742%

Edges2–250%

PossPossession 57%–43%ShotsShots 4–10On targetOn target 1–5CornersCorners 1–6

Quick Take

Pre-match view

Context last updated 23 Oct 2026, 10:15 · Europe/Bucharest

Cagliari's strong league position meets a Bologna side missing Piccoli and Orsolini, but Cagliari's 4-0 loss at Monza and Bologna's clean-sheet run in this fixture keep the game tight.

Cagliari are the more likely winner, with a draw plausible in a low-scoring match. Cagliari to win at 3.1, Cagliari to win or draw at 1.53 and both teams to score — no — at 1.85 are the quoted prices that justify interest.

Context

Piccoli started all seven league games, so his absence removes the fixed target man from a side that has scored six goals in seven matches. Palladino framed the replacement as an open contest between three different profiles: Dovbyk as a penalty-area striker, Enem as a link player he said could be useful in this specific fixture, and Odgaard between the lines. The choice changes how Bologna attack crosses and second balls rather than only who finishes them, which is why the identity of the starter is worth waiting for. No single replacement has been confirmed, so any read on Bologna's attacking shape stays provisional until the team sheet.
- Piccoli was hurt in the first half against Inter and is expected to miss at least three weeks.
- He had played all seven Serie A matches this season and scored in the 2-2 draw with Sassuolo.
- Palladino said Dovbyk, Enem and Odgaard begin with equal chances of replacing him, describing Enem as a link player who could help in this particular game and Odgaard as capable of starting.
ConfirmedSources checked 23 Oct 2026, 10:11 · Europe/Bucharest
Cagliari conceded four at Monza in the one game their coach could not influence from the touchline, having previously conceded three goals across their first six league fixtures combined. The response is a shift back to a lone centre-forward with an extra body behind him, which changes how high Cagliari press and how many players they commit at the Unipol Domus. Because the plan is described as probable rather than settled, the personnel chosen around the striker carries as much weight as the shape itself. Bologna's own lack of a fixed centre-forward makes the midfield and second-ball battle the likely deciding area of the game.
- Pisacane was suspended for the Monza match and returns to the dugout for this fixture.
- Cagliari have worked this week on going back to a one-striker system, with some changes in personnel possible.
- Cagliari had the best defensive record in Serie A before conceding four at Monza, according to Palladino's own pre-match assessment.
ConfirmedSources checked 23 Oct 2026, 10:11 · Europe/Bucharest
A coach appointed during an international break has had three matches, and Bologna's only win in that spell came at Lecce, so the side is still being rebuilt rather than refined. Selection hierarchies are the practical consequence: Palladino has openly invited competition for places, which makes Bologna's XI and shape in Cagliari less predictable than a settled team's. The week without a midweek fixture gives him room to keep adjusting roles, including where Odgaard and Mbangula sit behind the striker. Against that, continuity can be worth as much as fresh ideas, and Bologna's attacking absences limit how much of the intended structure can actually be fielded.
- Palladino took over during the October international break and has three matches behind him, with improvements noted in build-up play and defensive solidity still to come.
- He told the team on Monday that he wants internal competition, singling out players who had featured little.
- Bologna have five points from seven league games under the change of coach.
ConfirmedSources checked 23 Oct 2026, 10:11 · Europe/Bucharest
With Orsolini out, Bologna lose the wide attacker who has been a constant in their front line, and Palladino explicitly rejected moving Cambiaghi to wing-back to keep him further forward. That pushes the wide work onto Bernardeschi, Cambiaghi and Darmian, and reduces the number of established crossing and set-piece options available. Cover exists, so this is a reshaped attack rather than a collapsed one, and the effect is mostly on how Bologna progress down the flanks rather than on who leads the line. The doubt was listed during the training week, so a late change to the front three remains possible.
- Orsolini is recovering from a muscular injury and was in doubt for the Cagliari game.
- Bologna's probable line-up fields Bernardeschi and Cambiaghi from the start, with Cambiaghi kept in the front line rather than at wing-back.
- Bologna are without three regulars for this fixture, with Piccoli and Holm also unavailable.
- R. Orsolini started 1 of the 5 recent team fixtures with available lineups.
ReportedSources checked 23 Oct 2026, 10:11 · Europe/Bucharest

BetBugs edges

Compare BetBugs' chances with the market's.

BetBugs probabilities

How likely BetBugs thought each outcome was.

Result2 of 5 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Market price 3.10
The read
Cagliari have the stronger league record and home advantage, while Bologna are lower in the table and missing attacking options.
- Cagliari have 13 points from 7 Serie A games; Bologna have 5.
- Cagliari are 4W1D2L in the league, Bologna 1W2D4L.
- Cagliari's home league split is 1W1D1L; Bologna's away split is 1W0D2L.
- Bologna are without Piccoli and Orsolini.
BetBugs · Match WinnerlostCagliariEstimated chance41%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Low first-half scoring on both sides makes a level half-time score the most likely outcome.
- Cagliari's home first-half goals for and against are 0.71 and 0.43.
- Bologna's away first-half goals for and against are 0.25 and 0.0.
- Both teams' first-half totals are below one goal per match.
- The last meeting finished 0-0.
BetBugs · First Half WinnerwonDrawEstimated chance46%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Low second-half scoring on both sides makes a shared half the most likely result.
- Cagliari's home second-half goals for and against are 0.14 and 0.57.
- Bologna's away second-half goals for and against are 0.50 and 0.75.
- Both teams' second-half totals are low.
- The last meeting finished 0-0.
BetBugs · Second Half WinnerlostDrawEstimated chance52%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Market price 1.53
The read
Cagliari have the stronger league record and home advantage, while Bologna are lower in the table and missing attacking options. Both sides have low-scoring records and this fixture has recently been tight, so a draw is plausible.
- Cagliari have 13 points from 7 Serie A games; Bologna have 5.
- Cagliari are 4W1D2L in the league, Bologna 1W2D4L.
- Cagliari and Bologna have each scored six league goals this season.
- Bologna's away split is 2W0D2L with two goals scored and three conceded.
BetBugs · Double ChancelostCagliari or DrawEstimated chance73%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Cagliari's home first-half scoring gives them the better chance of leading at the break. Low first-half scoring on both sides makes a level half-time score the most likely outcome.
- Cagliari average 0.71 first-half goals at home.
- Bologna average 0.25 first-half goals away.
- Cagliari's home first-half goals for and against are 0.71 and 0.43.
- Bologna's away first-half goals for and against are 0.25 and 0.0.
BetBugs · Double Chance First HalfwonCagliari or DrawEstimated chance78%

Goals2 of 4 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Market price 1.67
The read
Both teams' season averages and the recent meetings point to a low-scoring game.
- Cagliari average 1.00 goals for and 1.08 against in 12 competitive matches.
- Bologna average 1.11 goals for and 1.44 against in 9 competitive matches.
- Bologna's away split has 0.75 goals for and 0.75 against in 4 matches.
- The last meeting finished 0-0 with Bologna keeping three clean sheets in the last four head-to-heads.
BetBugs · Goals Over/UnderwonUnder 2.5Estimated chance60%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Market price 1.85
The read
The recent meetings and Bologna's away scoring rate make at least one clean sheet likely.
- Bologna kept clean sheets in three of the last four meetings.
- Bologna's away split has both teams scoring in only 1 of 4 matches.
- Cagliari's home split has both teams scoring in 3 of 7 matches.
- Bologna are missing Piccoli and Orsolini.
BetBugs · Both Teams to ScorewonNoEstimated chance59%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Both teams have usually produced at least one first-half goal in recent matches.
- Cagliari's home first-half goals for and against are 0.71 and 0.43.
- Bologna's away first-half goals for and against are 0.25 and 0.0.
- Cagliari's last six matches had first-half goals in five.
- Bologna's last six matches had first-half goals in four.
BetBugs · 1st Half GoalslostOver 0.5 goals in 1st halfEstimated chance58%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Low second-half scoring rates on both sides make under 1.5 the stronger side.
- Cagliari's home second-half total is 0.71 goals.
- Bologna's away second-half total is 1.25 goals.
- Cagliari score 0.14 second-half goals at home.
- Bologna score 0.50 second-half goals away.
BetBugs · Goals Over Under Second HalflostUnder 1.5Estimated chance82%

Match stats1 of 3 landed

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Cagliari's home corner volume and Bologna's away concession rate point to a total above 8.5.
- Cagliari average 5.43 corners at home.
- Bologna average 2.50 corners away.
- Bologna concede 5.75 corners away.
- Cagliari concede 4.43 corners at home.
BetBugs · Corners Over/UnderlostOver 8.5Estimated chance54%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Both sides' shot volumes and opponent allowances leave the match near the 25.5 line with over possible.
- Cagliari average 14.0 shots at home.
- Bologna average 10.0 shots away.
- Cagliari allow 15.57 shots at home.
- Bologna allow 12.25 shots away.
BetBugs · Shots Over/UnderlostOver 25.5Estimated chance53%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
The teams' own shots-on-target numbers add to under 8.5, making the lower side more likely.
- Cagliari average 3.86 shots on target at home.
- Bologna average 3.75 shots on target away.
- The combined own average is 7.61.
- Bologna allow only 2.75 shots on target away.
BetBugs · Shots on Target Over/UnderwonUnder 8.5Estimated chance53%