Marseille4Le Havre3

HT 2–0Sun 25 Oct 2026, 16:15 Predictions graded

Predictions6–275%

Edges4–267%

PossPossession 53%–47%ShotsShots 11–22On targetOn target 5–7CornersCorners 4–3

Quick Take

Pre-match view

Context last updated 24 Oct 2026, 21:51 · Europe/Bucharest

Bottom side Le Havre, winless in seven league games and short of defenders, visit a Marseille team who have themselves lost twice at home in the league.

Marseille should win, but 1.50 for the home victory asks too much of a side beaten 1-0 in both recent European matches. The better quotes are under 1.5 first-half goals at 1.60, Le Havre to take over 3.5 corners at 1.95 and over 2.5 cards at 1.45.

Context

Le Havre have played seven league games without a win, drawing two and losing five, and sit 18th with two points. They have scored five goals and conceded eleven across that span, with one point from three away trips. The season is young, but this is the form and standing they bring to the Vélodrome.
- Ligue 1 standings as of 24 October 2026: Le Havre 18th, 7 played, 0 wins, 2 draws, 5 defeats, 5 goals for, 11 against
- Away record: 3 played, 0 wins, 1 draw, 2 defeats, 3 goals for, 5 against
Le Havre have produced one first-half goal across eight competitive matches, an average of 0.13 per game, while their second-half rate is 0.75. Opponents have managed only 0.5 first-half goals per match in the same span. That points to quiet openings in their games, though a single early goal would quickly change the shape.
- Le Havre first-half goals for: 0.125 average across 8 competitive matches, 17 May to 18 October 2026
- Second-half goals for: 0.75 average across the same 8 matches
- First-half goals against: 0.5 average
Le Havre have averaged 5.1 corners across eight competitive matches and 4.5 in four away games. The count has held up in matches they lost, so territory is not entirely one-way against them. Corner numbers swing from game to game on samples this small, making the away figure the more cautious reference.
- Le Havre corners: 5.125 average across 8 competitive matches, 17 May to 18 October 2026
- Away corners: 4.5 average across 4 away matches
The most recent supplied meeting between these sides produced a 6-2 Marseille victory, an unusually emphatic result for this fixture. It gives this return match a clear recent head-to-head reference point. That scoreline was shaped by Le Havre playing with ten men after Gautier Lloris's dismissal, so it is not direct evidence of the expected balance with 11 players.
- Marseille beat Le Havre 6-2 at the Vélodrome on 18 October 2025.
- Mason Greenwood scored four goals in that match.
- Le Havre defender Gautier Lloris was sent off for handball.
ConfirmedSources checked 24 Oct 2026, 21:50 · Europe/BucharestLigue 1ligue1.com · 18 Oct 2025

BetBugs edges

Compare BetBugs' chances with the market's.

Positive edges · 3

BetBugs probabilities

How likely BetBugs thought each outcome was.

Result1 of 1 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Market price 1.50
The read
Marseille have dominated this fixture for years and face the bottom side, whose defence is badly depleted.
- Le Havre are 18th with 0 wins in 7 Ligue 1 games (2 draws, 5 defeats, 5 goals scored)
- Marseille have won the last five head-to-head meetings, including 6-2 and 5-1 at the Vélodrome
- Marseille's home league record is 7 goals for and 5 against in 3 matches
- Le Havre are without four defenders and a goalkeeper through injury
BetBugs · Match WinnerwonMarseilleEstimated chance62%

Goals4 of 5 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Market price 1.50
The read
Marseille's home games are wide open and this fixture has produced goals in bulk recently.
- Marseille's three home league games produced 7 goals for and 5 against, an average of 4.0 per game
- The last two Vélodrome meetings with Le Havre finished 6-2 and 5-1
- Le Havre's league games average 2.29 goals (5 for, 11 against in 7)
- Le Havre have kept one clean sheet in eight competitive matches
BetBugs · Goals Over/UnderwonOver 2.5Estimated chance57%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Market price 1.48
The read
Marseille create plenty at the Vélodrome and a patched-up Le Havre back line is likely to concede more than once.
- Marseille scored 7 goals in 3 home Ligue 1 matches, an average of 2.33
- Marseille scored 6 and 5 in the last two home meetings with Le Havre
- Le Havre have conceded 5 goals in 3 away league games
- Le Havre's defence is missing Jelert, Pembele, Zagadou and Toure
BetBugs · Home Goals TotalwonMarseille over 1.5Estimated chance64%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Le Havre have found the net on the road and Marseille's home defence has been generous this season.
- Le Havre have scored 3 goals in 3 away league matches this season
- Marseille have conceded 5 goals in 3 home league games and kept 2 clean sheets in 11 competitive matches
- Le Havre scored in four of the last five head-to-head meetings
- Marseille are missing defender Cornelius and have a doubt over Koum Mbondo
BetBugs · Away Goals TotalwonLe Havre over 0.5Estimated chance60%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Market price 1.60
The read
Both teams do most of their scoring after the break and Le Havre rarely threaten before half-time.
- Marseille average 0.55 first-half goals for and 0.64 against in 11 competitive matches
- Le Havre average 0.13 first-half goals for and 0.5 against in 8 competitive matches
- Le Havre have not scored a first-half goal in any of their last six matches
- Marseille's last four first halves produced 0, 2, 0 and 0 goals
BetBugs · 1st Half GoalslostUnder 1.5 goals in 1st halfEstimated chance74%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Most of both teams' goals arrive after the interval, and Le Havre's weakened defence tends to tire.
- Marseille average 1.09 second-half goals for and 0.91 against
- Le Havre average 0.83 second-half goals for and 1.0 against
- Marseille's 5-2 win at Angers included three second-half goals
- Le Havre's last four matches produced second-half goals for both sides
BetBugs · Goals Over Under Second HalfwonOver 1.5Estimated chance57%

Match stats1 of 2 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Market price 1.95
The read
Le Havre win a steady supply of corners even in defeats, and Marseille's defending invites them.
- Le Havre average 5.1 corners per competitive match and 4.5 in away matches
- Le Havre took 7, 5, 7, 4, 5 and 5 corners across their recent league games
- Marseille concede 4.4 corners per match
- Marseille's opponents took 7 corners in the recent home defeat to PSG
BetBugs · Away CornerslostLe Havre over 3.5Estimated chance67%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Market price 1.45
The read
Both teams' matches regularly pass three cards and Le Havre's struggles have brought bookings and dismissals.
- Marseille's matches average 3.8 cards (1.6 for them, 2.2 for opponents)
- Le Havre's matches average 3.1 cards (1.5 for them, 1.6 for opponents)
- Le Havre have collected a red card in two of the last four league games
- The recent Auxerre and Toulouse games involving Le Havre produced four and four cards
BetBugs · Cards Over/UnderwonOver 2.5Estimated chance76%

Prediction history

Marseille: 3/6 recent winner projections matched

3 of 6 comparable winner projections favouring Marseille matched the recorded result. This is a limited recent sample, not a guarantee for this match.

Recent evidence for Marseille6 matches

Date / competitionMatch resultPredictedActualResult

17 May·Ligue 1