Atalanta3Venezia1

HT 3–1Mon 12 Oct 2026, 16:30 Predictions graded

Predictions7–750%

Edges1–233%

PossPossession 36%–64%ShotsShots 22–19On targetOn target 11–4CornersCorners 8–7

Quick Take

Pre-match view

Context last updated 11 Oct 2026, 23:49 · Europe/Bucharest

Venezia are bottom and pointless, while Atalanta have won two of three at home but lost their last three league games.

Atalanta should still take the points, yet the 1.53 available does not justify a bet. Two reviewed prices do offer something: at least one team to be kept off the scoresheet at 2.2, and the teams to be level at half-time at 2.63.

Context

A manager working to an immediate result can change how a bottom side approaches a fixture, and Venezia's week has unfolded against reported talks with possible replacements. That uncertainty can cut both ways: it may sharpen a response or add pressure on a squad still without a point. The succession links are not settled, so no managerial change has taken effect and the practical effect on selection is uncertain.
- Venezia have taken zero points from five Serie A games and sit bottom of the table.
- Stroppa stays in post but his position is described as precarious, with the Atalanta match identified as decisive.
- Venezia have sounded out Davide Nicola and Paolo Zanetti about the role.
ReportedSources checked 11 Oct 2026, 23:46 · Europe/Bucharest
Moving to a 4-2-3-1 would place De Ketelaere centrally behind Scamacca and change how Atalanta attack a Venezia block that has conceded 13 goals in five league games. The switch is reported rather than already executed, and Sarri has signalled that Scamacca and Nikola Krstovic stay in the forward plans, so the personnel is not fixed. Atalanta's run of three straight defeats is the prompt for the reshuffle.
- Atalanta lost three consecutive Serie A games before the international break, to Roma, Cagliari and Juventus.
- Sarri has been preparing a 4-2-3-1 designed to revive Gianluca Scamacca and Charles De Ketelaere.
- Sarri's plan keeps Gianluca Scamacca and Nikola Krstovic in the forward discussion rather than discarding them.
ReportedSources checked 11 Oct 2026, 23:46 · Europe/Bucharest
Raspadori's return restores an attacking option while Sarri experiments with a new shape, giving Atalanta cover if the front line is rotated. He was listed among the absentees earlier in the week, so his availability is a genuine change rather than a stable condition. How much he plays is unclear because Sarri has described him as a multi-position forward and the starting roles are still being decided.
- Raspadori trained fully with the group on 11 October after earlier sessions doing individual work and therapy.
- G. Raspadori started 2 of the 5 recent team fixtures with available lineups.
- J. Rowe started in the same position in 2 of the 5 recent team fixtures with available lineups when G. Raspadori did not start.
ReportedSources checked 11 Oct 2026, 23:46 · Europe/Bucharest
Kossounou's and Hien's problems leave Atalanta short of the physical centre-back options Sarri has used, which matters for a defence that has conceded twice in each of the last three league games. Pompei's operation only affects goalkeeping depth behind Marco Carnesecchi. The reports come from training-ground coverage rather than a published squad list, so the final group could still change.
- Kossounou and reserve goalkeeper Pompei have been on therapy programmes rather than training with the group.
- Pompei underwent surgery for a finger fracture in early October.
- Hien and Sulemana also continued individual work in the days before the match.
ReportedSources checked 11 Oct 2026, 23:46 · Europe/Bucharest

BetBugs edges

Compare BetBugs' chances with the market's.

Positive edges · 2

Other edges · 1

The published chance does not exceed the market's implied chance.

Match WinnerwonUncertainty band: Lean

Atalanta

1.53fair 1.67

BetBugs 60% · Market 65.4%

−5.4ppshort

Atalanta's two home league wins and Venezia's pointless start point to the home side.

BetBugs probabilities

How likely BetBugs thought each outcome was.

Result3 of 5 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Market price 1.53
The read
Atalanta's two home league wins and Venezia's pointless start point to the home side.
- Atalanta's home league record this season: 2 wins, 1 loss, 4 goals scored and 3 conceded in 3 games
- Venezia have lost all five league matches, scoring 4 and conceding 13
- Atalanta's tracked competitive record: 4 wins, 3 draws, 4 losses with 0.91 goals scored per match
- Venezia's away split: 0 wins, 1 draw, 3 losses, 1.25 scored and 2.25 conceded per away match
BetBugs · Match WinnerwonAtalantaEstimated chance60%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Market price 2.63
The read
Both teams have been level at the break in most of their recent matches.
- Half-time was level in 4 of Atalanta's last 6 matches and 4 of Venezia's last 6
- Atalanta first-half goals for and against combined average 0.64 per match
- Venezia first-half goals for and against combined average 1.1 per match
BetBugs · First Half WinnerlostDrawEstimated chance44%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Venezia concede regularly after the break, which favours Atalanta in the second half.
- Atalanta average 0.55 second-half goals for and 0.73 against per competitive match
- Venezia average 1.0 second-half goals for and 1.2 against per match
- Venezia conceded a second-half goal in each of their last 6 matches
BetBugs · Second Half WinnerlostAtalantaEstimated chance42%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Atalanta's two home league wins and Venezia's pointless start point to the home side. Atalanta's low scoring and three draws in the window keep a tight draw in play.
- Atalanta's home league record this season: 2 wins, 1 loss, 4 goals scored and 3 conceded in 3 games
- Venezia have lost all five league matches, scoring 4 and conceding 13
- Atalanta have drawn 3 of 11 tracked competitive matches
- The most recent meeting between the clubs, at Atalanta in March 2025, finished 0-0
BetBugs · Double ChancewonAtalanta or DrawEstimated chance83%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Atalanta's first-half scoring is modest, but they are the side more likely to lead at the break. Both teams have been level at the break in most of their recent matches.
- Atalanta average 0.36 first-half goals for and 0.27 against across 11 competitive matches
- Venezia average 0.4 first-half goals for and 0.7 against across 10
- Half-time was level in 4 of Atalanta's last 6 matches and 4 of Venezia's last 6
- Atalanta first-half goals for and against combined average 0.64 per match
BetBugs · Double Chance First HalfwonAtalanta or DrawEstimated chance83%

Goals3 of 6 landed

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Atalanta's home games and their own low scoring point to fewer than three goals.
- Atalanta's six home matches produced 4 goals scored and 4 conceded
- Atalanta average 0.91 goals per competitive match; Venezia failed to score in 3 of 10
- Only 2 of Venezia's 5 league matches passed three total goals
BetBugs · Goals Over/UnderlostUnder 2.5Estimated chance52%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Market price 2.20
The read
Venezia's lack of away scoring and Atalanta's home clean sheets make a blank for one side more likely than not.
- Atalanta have kept a clean sheet in 3 of 6 home matches
- Venezia were held scoreless in their two most recent league games
- Venezia average 1.4 goals per competitive match but only 3 goals in their last 6
BetBugs · Both Teams to ScorelostNoEstimated chance52%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Atalanta concede regularly even at home, so Venezia scoring once is more likely than not.
- Atalanta kept 3 clean sheets in 6 home matches, so conceded in the other 3
- Atalanta have conceded in 7 of 11 competitive matches
- Venezia scored in 7 of 10 competitive matches
BetBugs · Team to ScorewonVenezia to scoreEstimated chance58%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Atalanta's home scoring has been limited to a single goal in most tracked home matches.
- Atalanta scored 4 goals across 6 tracked home matches
- Atalanta scored 1 goal in each of their last two home league games
- Venezia conceded two or more in every league game, but Atalanta's home output is 0.67 goals per match
BetBugs · Home Goals TotallostAtalanta under 1.5Estimated chance58%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Venezia have rarely scored more than once and Atalanta keep clean sheets in half their home games.
- Venezia average 1.4 goals per competitive match but 3 goals in their last 6
- Venezia failed to score in 3 of 10 competitive matches
- Atalanta kept clean sheets in 3 of 6 home matches
BetBugs · Away Goals TotalwonVenezia under 1.5Estimated chance74%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
The two teams' first-half scoring rates make at least one goal before the break slightly more likely.
- Atalanta first-half goals for and against combined average 0.64 per match
- Venezia first-half goals for and against combined average 1.1 per match
- A first-half goal arrived in 6 of the two teams' last twelve matches combined
BetBugs · 1st Half GoalswonOver 0.5 goals in 1st halfEstimated chance55%

Match stats1 of 3 landed

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Atalanta's home corner counts are low enough to keep the total below nine.
- Atalanta's home matches average 5.83 total corners
- Venezia's tracked away matches average 8.5 total corners
- Venezia average 3.4 corners per competitive match
BetBugs · Corners Over/UnderlostUnder 8.5Estimated chance55%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Combined shots on target sit right on the line, with Venezia's games slightly the busier.
- Atalanta average 4.09 shots on target and concede 5.27 per competitive match
- Venezia average 5.5 shots on target and concede 5.0 per match
- The two teams' last six matches combined averaged 9.9 shots on target
BetBugs · Shots on Target Over/UnderwonOver 9.5Estimated chance51%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Venezia's recent card counts and a bottom-of-the-table away trip point slightly over three and a half cards.
- Venezia's yellow-card counts average 2.1 for and 1.7 against per competitive match
- Atalanta's yellow-card counts average 1.44 for and 1.44 against in 9 matches
- Venezia collected 6 yellow cards against Lazio and 4 at Frosinone
BetBugs · Cards Over/UnderlostOver 3.5Estimated chance52%