AC Horsens5SonderjyskE1

HT 3–1Sun 25 Oct 2026, 15:00 Predictions graded

Predictions8–189%

Edges6–0100%

PossPossession 47%–53%ShotsShots 17–19On targetOn target 7–6CornersCorners 2–4

Quick Take

Pre-match view

Context last updated 25 Oct 2026, 00:57 · Europe/Bucharest

Horsens are the better side and SønderjyskE have not won away in the league all season, but Horsens have won only once at home in six, so the gap is narrower than the table suggests.

Horsens to avoid defeat is the likeliest outcome; at 1.44 the price asks for more than their form supports. The half-time version at 1.33 is closest to fair and still offers no clear advantage.

Context

Horsens scored five from 16 shots, with nine on target, their biggest attacking return in the six matches listed for them. It also continues a high-scoring head-to-head: three of the last five meetings have produced five goals or more. That win came away from home, though, and Horsens have managed one win in six home league games this season.
- SønderjyskE 2-5 AC Horsens, Superliga, 6 September 2026: 2-1 at half-time, 16 shots to 11, 9 on target to 3.
- The last five head-to-heads produced 7, 5, 5, 3 and 3 goals.
The away split is the clearest reason to favour Horsens: no win in five league trips, four goals scored and 11 conceded, including a 3-0 loss at Aarhus on 12 October. Horsens' home form of one win, three draws and two defeats is why that edge is not larger, and SønderjyskE did score twice in the September meeting. Both teams have leaked goals — 19 conceded by Horsens, 24 by SønderjyskE.
- Standings after 11 rounds: SønderjyskE 11th, 8 points, 2W-2D-7L, 16 goals for, 24 against.
- SønderjyskE away league record: 5 played, 0 wins, 1 draw, 4 defeats, 4 scored, 11 conceded.
- Horsens home league record: 6 played, 1 win, 3 draws, 2 defeats, 7 scored, 9 conceded.
It was the only time in their last six competitive matches that SønderjyskE scored more than twice, and the 9-1 corner margin is far above the 5.2 for and 6.6 against they average in the five away games with corner data. Their two league games either side of it produced one goal in total, a 0-3 loss at Aarhus and a 1-1 draw at Lyngby. The contrast is between home and away, and this fixture is away.
- SønderjyskE 4-0 Silkeborg, Superliga, 18 October 2026: 3-0 at half-time, 15 shots to 7, 7 on target to 3, 9 corners to 1.
It was the middle game of a three-match league run of draws, followed by a 0-0 with Randers on 16 October. Horsens had 17 shots to Silkeborg's 14, with seven on target each, so the attacking output was there without a win. For a side that has drawn half of its six home league games, turning promising positions into three points has been the sticking point.
- Silkeborg 3-3 AC Horsens, Superliga, 11 October 2026: Horsens 2-0 up at half-time, 17 shots to 14, 7 on target each.

BetBugs edges

Compare BetBugs' chances with the market's.

Positive edges · 1

Other edges · 5

The published chance does not exceed the market's implied chance.

Double ChancewonUncertainty band: Strong lean

AC Horsens or Draw

1.44fair 1.47

BetBugs 68% · Market 69.4%

−1.4ppshort

Horsens are the better-placed side and the visitors have not won any of five away league games.

Goals Over/UnderwonUncertainty band: Lean

Over 2.5

1.70fair 1.72

BetBugs 58% · Market 58.8%

−0.8ppshort

Both venue splits and a consistently high-scoring head-to-head point to at least three goals.

Both Teams to ScorewonUncertainty band: Slight lean

Yes

1.57fair 1.79

BetBugs 56% · Market 63.7%

−7.7ppshort

Horsens should score against a leaky away defence and SønderjyskE have found the net in most away games.

1st Half GoalswonUncertainty band: Strong lean

Over 0.5 goals in 1st half

1.30fair 1.43

BetBugs 70% · Market 76.9%

−6.9ppshort

Both teams' venue splits show roughly a goal per game before the break, and SønderjyskE concede early away.

Goals Over Under Second HalfwonUncertainty band: Strong lean

Over 0.5

1.22fair 1.25

BetBugs 80% · Market 82%

−2.0ppshort

Both teams' second halves at these venues have averaged well over a goal, making a blank half unlikely.

BetBugs probabilities

How likely BetBugs thought each outcome was.

Result2 of 2 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Market price 1.44
The read
Horsens are the better-placed side and the visitors have not won any of five away league games.
- Horsens are 6th on 13 points; SønderjyskE are 11th on 8.
- SønderjyskE's away league record is 0 wins, 1 draw, 4 defeats with 4 scored and 11 conceded in 5.
- Horsens won the September meeting 5-2.
- Horsens have avoided defeat in 4 of their 6 home league games (1W-3D-2L).
BetBugs · Double ChancewonAC Horsens or DrawEstimated chance68%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Market price 1.33
The read
SønderjyskE rarely lead at the break away from home, while Horsens' home first halves have been tight.
- SønderjyskE have scored 1 first-half goal in 7 away matches while conceding 9.
- Horsens' home first halves: 2 scored, 4 conceded in 6 games.
- SønderjyskE were 0-3 down at half-time at Aarhus.
BetBugs · Double Chance First HalfwonAC Horsens or DrawEstimated chance76%

Goals5 of 5 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Market price 1.70
The read
Both venue splits and a consistently high-scoring head-to-head point to at least three goals.
- The last five head-to-heads produced 3, 3, 5, 5 and 7 goals.
- SønderjyskE's away league games average 3.0 goals (4 for, 11 against in 5).
- Horsens' home league games average 2.67 goals (7 for, 9 against in 6).
BetBugs · Goals Over/UnderwonOver 2.5Estimated chance58%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Market price 1.57
The read
Horsens should score against a leaky away defence and SønderjyskE have found the net in most away games.
- Both teams scored in 4 of the last 5 meetings, including the 5-2 in September.
- Horsens score 1.17 per home game, while SønderjyskE concede 2.2 per away game.
- SønderjyskE have scored 4 goals across 5 away league games.
BetBugs · Both Teams to ScorewonYesEstimated chance56%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
SønderjyskE's away scoring is thin and their best attacking displays have come at home.
- SønderjyskE average 0.8 goals per away league game (4 in 5).
- They lost 3-0 at Aarhus and drew 1-1 at Lyngby, failing to reach two in either.
- Horsens concede 1.5 per home game, so one away goal remains plausible.
BetBugs · Away Goals TotalwonSonderjyskE under 1.5Estimated chance62%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Market price 1.30
The read
Both teams' venue splits show roughly a goal per game before the break, and SønderjyskE concede early away.
- Horsens' home first halves average 1.0 goal (0.33 for, 0.67 against).
- SønderjyskE's away first halves average 1.43 goals (0.14 for, 1.29 against).
- The September meeting was 1-2 at half-time, three first-half goals.
BetBugs · 1st Half GoalswonOver 0.5 goals in 1st halfEstimated chance70%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Market price 1.22
The read
Both teams' second halves at these venues have averaged well over a goal, making a blank half unlikely.
- Horsens' home second halves average 1.67 goals (0.83 for, 0.83 against).
- SønderjyskE's away second halves average 1.57 goals (0.86 for, 0.71 against).
- The September meeting produced three second-half goals.
BetBugs · Goals Over Under Second HalfwonOver 0.5Estimated chance80%

Match stats1 of 2 landed

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Both teams' venue splits comfortably clear nine corners per match, driven by SønderjyskE's high concession rate.
- Horsens' home matches average 10.3 corners (3.2 for, 7.2 against).
- SønderjyskE's away matches average 11.8 corners (5.2 for, 6.6 against).
- SønderjyskE's 4-0 win over Silkeborg featured 9-1 corners.
BetBugs · Corners Over/UnderlostOver 8.5Estimated chance60%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Both teams allow plenty of shots, so a busy match with more than 23 attempts is well supported.
- Horsens' home matches average 25.3 shots (11.2 for, 14.2 against).
- SønderjyskE's away matches average 29.8 shots (12.2 for, 17.6 against).
- The September meeting produced 27 shots (16-11).
BetBugs · Shots Over/UnderwonOver 23.5Estimated chance66%