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Naesby BKHorsens

Wed 16 Sept 2026, 14:3016 Sept, 14:30

12Probabilities0Priced9Edges88%Strongest

Strong leanLeanSlight leanNear coin-flip

Quick Take

Read first

Context last updated 15 Sep 2026, 03:48 · Europe/Bucharest

Horsens are clear favourites and the only positive edge is on the match winner at 1.40 (+1 point), but rotation risk before the AGF derby tempers confidence.

Avoid Over 2.5, HT/FT Horsens/Horsens, and clean sheet markets, as the odds already price in the likely outcomes.

Context

Horsens' prior cup rotation and the four-day gap before the AGF derby leave their selection and tactical continuity uncertain, while the confirmed home venue removes relocation doubt.

Horsens play in the Danish Superliga, two divisions above Naesby BK, who compete in the 3. Division.
The last cup meeting was on 12 August 2025, when Horsens won 2-1 away. In 2020 they won 3-0 away. Those results suggest Horsens have a clear edge in this fixture, but the sample is small and the teams have changed since then.
- On 12 August 2025, Horsens won 2-1 away against Naesby BK in the DBU Pokalen.
- On 7 October 2020, Horsens won 3-0 away against Naesby BK in the DBU Pokalen.
Naesby BK play in the Danish 3. Division, the fourth tier of Danish football.
Their last league match was a 1-0 away loss to ASA Aarhus on 13 September. Before that they beat Hørsholm-Usserød 4-3 at home on 5 September. The mixed results show they can score but also concede, which may be a problem against a higher-division side.
- On 13 September 2026, Naesby BK lost 1-0 away to ASA Aarhus in the 3. Division.
- On 5 September 2026, Naesby BK won 4-3 at home against Hørsholm-Usserød in the 3. Division.
- On 29 August 2026, Naesby BK lost 3-2 away to Holbæk B&I in the 3. Division.
Horsens' previous cup tie at IF Lyseng on 1 September used a starting XI with only four players who also started the league match at FC København on 11 September.
The final selection for this cup tie remains unresolved until the team sheet is published. With the AGF derby four days later, Horsens may again rotate heavily, which would affect their tactical continuity and the roles of players like Kupijbida, Saine, Lusavec, and Ouorou, who started both recent matches.
- AC Horsens won 4-0 at IF Lyseng on 1 September and named Hoff, Doua, Saine, Kupijbida, Mandrup, Lusavec, Jørgensen, Batigi, Ouorou, Miličević and Körkkö in the starting XI.
- The 11 September starting XI at FC København was Delač, Pálsson, Kupijbida, Kolskogen, Saine, Lusavec, Moro, Madsen, Tauriainen, Ehibhatiomhan and Ouorou.
- AC Horsens' official report schedules the home match against AGF for 20 September.
To watchSources checked 15 Sep 2026, 03:47 · Europe/BucharestAC Horsens: 4-0 cup win at IF Lysengachorsens.dk · 1 Sep 2026AC Horsens: FC København match reportachorsens.dk · 11 Sep 2026
Horsens play in the Danish Superliga, the top division.
Their last match was a 2-0 away loss to FC Copenhagen on 11 September. Before that they beat Sonderjyske 5-2 away on 6 September and Lyseng 4-0 away in the cup on 1 September. The loss to Copenhagen is not a major concern because Copenhagen are a strong side, and Horsens have shown they can score goals.
- On 11 September 2026, Horsens lost 2-0 away to FC Copenhagen in the Superliga.
- On 6 September 2026, Horsens won 5-2 away to Sonderjyske in the Superliga.
- On 1 September 2026, Horsens won 4-0 away to Lyseng in the DBU Pokalen.

BetBugs edges

Compare BetBugs' chances with the market's.

Positive edges · 1

Other edges · 8

The published chance does not exceed the market's implied chance.

Double ChanceUncertainty band: Strong lean

Horsens or Draw

1.13fair 1.14

BetBugs 88% · Market 88.5%

0.0ppshort

Horsens' stronger form and historical dominance make a Naesby win unlikely.

HT/FTUncertainty band: Near coin-flip

Horsens at half-time / Horsens at full-time

2.05fair 2.50

BetBugs 40% · Market 48.8%

0.0ppshort

Horsens' quality should eventually tell, but Naesby's resilience may delay the breakthrough.

2 Nd Half ResultUncertainty band: Near coin-flip

Horsens

1.83fair 2.00

BetBugs 50% · Market 54.6%

0.0ppshort

Horsens' quality advantage is likely to be more pronounced after the break.

Goals Over/UnderUncertainty band: Lean

Over 2.5

1.48fair 1.61

BetBugs 62% · Market 67.6%

0.0ppshort

Both teams show high-scoring trends, especially Naesby's open play, but the odds already price in a strong Over bias.

Both Teams To ScoreUncertainty band: Lean

Yes

1.70fair 1.72

BetBugs 58% · Market 58.8%

0.0ppshort

Naesby's attacking output and Horsens' occasional defensive lapses support both teams scoring, but the market is efficient.

Team to ScoreUncertainty band: Strong lean

Horsens to score

1.20fair 1.43

BetBugs 70% · Market 83.3%

0.0ppshort

Horsens' attacking threat makes a Naesby clean sheet unlikely, but the odds are heavily juiced.

Team to ScoreUncertainty band: Lean

Naesby BK to score

1.40fair 1.67

BetBugs 60% · Market 71.4%

0.0ppshort

Naesby's scoring form suggests they can breach Horsens' defence, but the price offers no value.

Away Win to NilUncertainty band: Strong lean

No

1.40fair 1.54

BetBugs 65% · Market 71.4%

0.0ppshort

Naesby's consistent scoring makes a Horsens win without conceding unlikely, but the market is efficient.

BetBugs probabilities

How likely BetBugs thinks each outcome is.

Result5 outcomes · top 88%

Signal quality High · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Horsens' superior league level and perfect H2H record make them clear favourites.
- Horsens are two divisions above Naesby BK (Superliga vs 3. Division).
- Horsens won both previous cup meetings (2-1 in 2025, 3-0 in 2020).
- Naesby BK average 1.3 goals conceded per match in recent form.
BetBugs · Match WinnerHorsensEstimated chance72%
Signal quality High · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Horsens' stronger form and historical dominance make a Naesby win unlikely.
- Horsens have lost only 3 of their last 10 competitive matches.
- Naesby BK have lost 4 of their last 10 matches across all competitions.
- Horsens have never lost to Naesby BK in the cup.
BetBugs · Double ChanceHorsens or DrawEstimated chance88%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Horsens' quality should eventually tell, but Naesby's resilience may delay the breakthrough.
- Horsens lead at half-time in 33% of matches.
- Naesby BK trail at half-time in only 13% of matches.
- Horsens have won both previous cup meetings.
BetBugs · Ht Ft DoubleHorsens/HorsensEstimated chance40%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Naesby's strong first-half record makes this a risky call.
- Horsens lead at half-time in 33% of matches.
- Naesby BK lead at half-time in 47% of matches.
- Horsens average 0.6 first-half goals scored.
BetBugs · First Half WinnerHorsensEstimated chance38%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Horsens' quality advantage is likely to be more pronounced after the break.
- Horsens have a positive second-half goal difference in recent matches.
- Naesby BK concede more goals in the second half.
- Horsens' superior fitness and depth should show late.
BetBugs · Second Half WinnerHorsensEstimated chance50%

Goals7 outcomes · top 70%

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Both teams show high-scoring trends, especially Naesby's open play.
- Naesby BK's recent matches average 3.6 total goals.
- Horsens' recent matches average 2.9 total goals.
- Both teams have scored in 6 of Naesby's last 10 matches.
BetBugs · Goals Over/UnderOver 2.5Estimated chance62%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Naesby's attacking output and Horsens' occasional defensive lapses support both teams scoring.
- Naesby BK have scored in 8 of their last 10 matches.
- Horsens have conceded in 7 of their last 10 matches.
- Naesby BK average 2.3 goals scored per match.
BetBugs · Both Teams to ScoreYesEstimated chance58%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
First-half scoring trends are mixed, making this a speculative pick.
- Naesby BK average 1.1 first-half goals scored.
- Horsens average 0.6 first-half goals scored and 0.9 conceded.
- Combined first-half goal average is 2.6 per match.
BetBugs · 1st Half GoalsOver 1.5 goals in 1st halfEstimated chance45%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Second halves tend to be more open as the match progresses.
- Naesby BK score 1.2 goals per second half on average.
- Horsens concede 0.5 goals per second half on average.
- Total second-half goals average 2.3 across both teams.
BetBugs · Goals Over Under Second HalfOver 1.5Estimated chance55%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Horsens' attacking threat makes a Naesby clean sheet unlikely.
- Naesby BK have kept only 2 clean sheets in their last 10 matches.
- Horsens have scored in 8 of their last 10 matches.
- Horsens average 1.5 goals scored per match.
BetBugs · Team to ScoreHorsens to scoreEstimated chance70%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Naesby's scoring form suggests they can breach Horsens' defence.
- Horsens have kept only 2 clean sheets in their last 10 matches.
- Naesby BK have scored in 8 of their last 10 matches.
- Naesby BK average 2.3 goals scored per match.
BetBugs · Team to ScoreNaesby BK to scoreEstimated chance60%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Naesby's consistent scoring makes a Horsens win without conceding unlikely.
- Horsens have won to nil only once in their last 10 matches.
- Naesby BK have failed to score in only 2 of their last 10 matches.
- Naesby BK average 2.3 goals scored per match.
BetBugs · Away Win to NilNoEstimated chance65%

Markets to Avoid

High-risk markets where price or context leaves too little cushion.

Head-to-Head

2W · 0D · 0W

W1-2NæsbyvAC HorsensAug 12, 2025DBU

W0-3NæsbyvAC HorsensOct 7, 2020DBU

3 goals/game avg

Recent Form

Naesby BK

L0-1ASA AarhusSep 133.

W4-3Hørsholm-UsserødSep 53.

L2-3Holbæk B&IAug 293.

W5-0MunkeboAug 25DBU

W5-1IshøjAug 223.

D0-0BrønshøjAug 153.

L0-3VanløseAug 83.

W3-0Kolding BAug 4DBU

W2-1SundbyAug 13.

L0-1MiddelfartJul 25FRI

W4-2SkiveJul 18FRI

W4-2Hørsholm-UsserødJun 133.

W1-0FA 2000Jun 63.

L2-3Nykobing FCMay 313.

W2-0VanløseMay 253.

Horsens

L0-2FC CopenhagenSep 11SUP

W5-2SonderjyskeSep 6SUP

L1-2FC MidtjyllandAug 2SUP

D1-1FC NordsjaellandJul 26SUP

L0-1Vendsyssel FFJul 18FRI

L0-2AarhusJul 15FRI

L2-3FC CopenhagenJul 11FRI

W2-0HobroJul 4FRI

D1-1FC NordsjaellandJun 27FRI

W1-0Kolding IFMay 311.

Squad & Injuries

Naesby BK

9 available

Attackers2

Midfielders5

Defenders1

Goalkeeper1

Horsens

31 available

Attackers6

Midfielders12

Defenders10

Goalkeeper3

Naesby BKHorsens

Quick Take

Context

BetBugs edges

Horsens

Horsens or Draw

Horsens at half-time / Horsens at full-time

Horsens

Over 2.5

Yes

Horsens to score

Naesby BK to score

No

BetBugs probabilities

Result5 outcomes · top 88%

Goals7 outcomes · top 70%

Markets to Avoid

Naesby BK

Naesby BK or Draw

Over 3.5

Head-to-Head

Recent Form

Naesby BK

Horsens

Squad & Injuries

Naesby BK

Horsens