AC Horsens0Randers0

HT 0–0Fri 16 Oct 2026, 17:00 Predictions graded

Predictions4–1029%

Edges1–325%

PossPossession 68%–32%ShotsShots 10–10On targetOn target 5–3CornersCorners 4–7

Quick Take

Pre-match view

Context last updated 12 Oct 2026, 18:21 · Europe/Bucharest

Randers' three-match league slide meets a Horsens side that has won only once at home.

The likelier outcome is a Horsens win or draw, though Randers' 3-0 win at Brondby in September keeps the away threat alive. Horsens at 2.75 and Horsens to avoid defeat at 1.57 are both potential value; Over 2.5 goals at 1.75 is fairly priced and Both Teams to Score at 1.65 asks too much.

Context

Randers centre-back Wessel Dammers was reported by Danish commentator Emil Stark on 8 October as probably not ready, with Hopland named as the best alternative; Stark said the club's injury picture would become clearer after the 11 October game against Viborg. The uncertainty matters because Randers have lost three straight league matches and the centre of defence is where they have looked most stretched. The note predates the Viborg match and does not confirm Dammers' availability for Friday, so it should be read as an unresolved selection question rather than a settled absence.
- Danish commentator Emil Stark posted on 8 October that Randers defender Wessel Dammers was probably not ready to play.
- Stark named Hopland as the best alternative at the back and said Randers' injury situation would be clearer after the 11 October game.
To watchSources checked 12 Oct 2026, 18:19 · Europe/Bucharest
AC Horsens conceded three second-half goals in their 3-3 draw at Silkeborg on 11 October, and the club-focused outlet Alt om AC Horsens published a piece that same day titled 'The defence has been scattered to the winds: how AC Horsens will get a stronger defence'. An earlier 30 September analysis framed October as decisive and said success would require a stronger defensive unit. The intended fix is directly relevant to a home game against a Randers side that has also been conceding, but the material is preview and analysis rather than confirmed team news, so the actual selection and shape remain open.
- Alt om AC Horsens published an 11 October piece titled 'The defence has been scattered to the winds: how AC Horsens will get a stronger defence'.
- An earlier 30 September piece framed October as decisive and said success requires a stronger defensive unit.
- Horsens conceded three second-half goals in their 3-3 draw at Silkeborg on 11 October.
ReportedSources checked 12 Oct 2026, 18:19 · Europe/Bucharest
The 0-2 home defeat to Viborg on 11 October was Randers' third straight Superliga loss. They had 16 shots to Viborg's 21 but only four on target, so the game turned on finishing and defending rather than territory. Whether that slide follows them to Horsens is the central question of the fixture.
- 11 October 2026: Randers 0-2 Viborg at home in the Superliga, a third consecutive league defeat
- Randers had 16 shots with 4 on target; Viborg had 21 shots with 4 on target
That 6 September win is Randers' most convincing away result in the tracked sample and shows a side that can score three times from only nine shots. It is the main counterweight to their three-match league slide, and a reminder that the away side has already produced one clean-sheet win on the road.
- 6 September 2026: Brondby 0-3 Randers in the Superliga
- Randers: 9 shots, 6 on target; Brondby: 19 shots, 2 on target

BetBugs edges

Compare BetBugs' chances with the market's.

Positive edges · 3

BetBugs probabilities

How likely BetBugs thought each outcome was.

Result2 of 5 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Market price 2.75
The read
Horsens sit higher and Randers are on a three-game league losing run, giving the home side a modest edge.
- Horsens home league record 1W-2D-2L, 7 goals for and 9 against
- Randers have lost their last three Superliga games
- Horsens rank 6 on 12 points; Randers rank 8 on 10
BetBugs · Match WinnerlostAC HorsensEstimated chance41%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Both teams produce very little in the first half, making a level interval the most likely outcome.
- Horsens home first-half goals for 0.4 per game
- Randers away first-half goals for 0.33 per game
- Randers away first-half goals against 0.67 per game
BetBugs · First Half WinnerwonDrawEstimated chance48%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Randers have been notably stronger after the break away from home.
- Randers away second half 1.67 scored, 0.5 conceded per game
- Randers scored three second-half goals in the cup win at Vendsyssel
- Horsens home second-half goals against 1.0 per game
BetBugs · Second Half WinnerlostRandersEstimated chance35%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Horsens sit higher and Randers are on a three-game league losing run, giving the home side a modest edge. Randers score freely away from home and Horsens leak goals at their own ground.
- Horsens home league record 1W-2D-2L, 7 goals for and 9 against
- Randers have lost their last three Superliga games
- Randers away split 3W-0D-3L with 2.0 goals per away game
- Randers won 3-0 at Brondby on 6 September
BetBugs · Double ChancelostAC Horsens or RandersEstimated chance73%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Both teams produce very little in the first half, making a level interval the most likely outcome. Randers have shown they can edge the opening period even if their first-half scoring rate is low.
- Horsens home first-half goals for 0.4 per game
- Randers away first-half goals for 0.33 per game
- Randers away first half 0.33 scored, 0.67 conceded per game
- Horsens home first-half goals against 0.8 per game
BetBugs · Double Chance First HalfwonDraw or RandersEstimated chance75%

Goals1 of 5 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Market price 1.75
The read
Both sides are involved in high-scoring games and neither defence looks secure.
- Horsens matches average 3.83 total goals (2.08 for, 1.75 against)
- 9 of Horsens' 12 competitive games had both teams scoring
- Randers' last two league games produced 2 and 6 goals
BetBugs · Goals Over/UnderlostOver 2.5Estimated chance59%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Market price 1.65
The read
Horsens almost always concede and Randers have scored in most recent outings.
- Horsens both teams scored in 9 of 12 competitive games
- Horsens conceded in 11 of 12 competitive matches
- Randers both teams scored in 5 of 12 but in 4 of their last 6
BetBugs · Both Teams to ScorelostYesEstimated chance58%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Both teams' first-half totals average around one goal, so at least one before the break is likely.
- Horsens home first-half goals combined 1.2 per game
- Randers away first-half goals combined 1.0 per game
- Horsens first half conceded 0.75 on average
BetBugs · 1st Half GoalslostOver 0.5 goals in 1st halfEstimated chance67%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
With both teams averaging well under one first-half goal, at least one is likely to be blanked before the break.
- Horsens home first-half goals for 0.4 per game
- Randers away first-half goals for 0.33 per game
- Horsens overall first-half goals against 0.75 per game
BetBugs · Both Teams Score First HalfwonNoEstimated chance83%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Both teams' second halves average around two goals, so more than one after the break is likely.
- Horsens home second-half goals combined 2.0 per game
- Randers away second-half goals combined 2.17 per game
- Randers scored three second-half goals at Vendsyssel
BetBugs · Goals Over Under Second HalflostOver 1.5Estimated chance60%

Match stats1 of 4 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Both teams concede plenty of corners, and the combined match total usually sits above 7.5.
- Horsens matches average 9.6 corners (3.0 for, 6.6 against)
- Randers matches average 11.7 corners (4.0 for, 7.7 against)
- Horsens' opponents average 6.6 corners; Randers' opponents 7.7
BetBugs · Corners Over/UnderwonOver 7.5Estimated chance70%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Both teams' games comfortably exceed 22.5 total shots, driven by opponents' high shot counts.
- Horsens matches average 26.7 shots (11.8 for, 14.9 against)
- Randers matches average 27.3 shots (10.5 for, 16.8 against)
- Randers' opponents average 16.8 shots per game
BetBugs · Shots Over/UnderlostOver 22.5Estimated chance65%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Combined shots on target hover just above the line, with several recent games clearing it.
- Horsens matches average 9.6 shots on target (4.9 for, 4.7 against)
- Randers matches average 8.6 shots on target (3.4 for, 5.2 against)
- Randers' opponents average 5.2 on target per game
BetBugs · Shots on Target Over/UnderlostOver 8.5Estimated chance55%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Discipline figures for both teams point to a card count around four.
- Randers average 1.8 yellows and concede 1.2 per game
- Horsens average 1.7 yellows from opponents
- Randers' 3-0 win at Brondby produced four cards
BetBugs · Cards Over/UnderlostUnder 4.5Estimated chance57%