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Predictions graded

Chojniczanka Chojnice2Legia Warszawa II3

HT 0–2Sat 24 Oct 2026, 15:00 Predictions graded

Predictions6–460%

Edges2–250%

Quick Take

Pre-match view

Context last updated 23 Oct 2026, 12:37 · Europe/Bucharest

Chojniczanka's level home record meets a Legia II side that concedes heavily away but keeps scoring, so a draw is as live as a home win.

A draw or Legia II win at 2.10, under 2.5 goals at 2.75 and the draw at 4.20 are the prices with a small edge; over 2.5 goals at 1.40 and a home win at 1.67 ask for more than the record supports.

Context

Legia II have scored seven and conceded 14 in six away league matches, with first-half concessions of 0.5 per game rising to 1.83 after the break. That late leakage gives the home side a route to goals even if the opening half is tight. The sample is six away games, so it is a pattern rather than a rule.
- Away league record over six matches from 31 July to 14 October 2026: 1W-1D-4L, 7 goals scored, 14 conceded.
- Second-half away splits: 0.67 goals scored and 1.83 conceded per match, against 0.57 scored and 0.50 conceded in first halves.
- Both teams scored in 4 of those 6 away matches; Legia II kept 1 away clean sheet.
Dobrzyński's six appointments this season span four II liga games, one Polish Cup tie and one III liga match, and his 34 yellow cards and single penalty come from that mixed sample. A referee in his first II liga season taking charge of a young reserve side can shape how often the game is stopped and how much contact is allowed in midfield, and neither club has any prior working knowledge of him. The counterweight is that he has not shown a red card this season and has awarded only one penalty, so the appointment looks more like a control risk than a likely game-changing decision.
- Chojniczanka's match announcement of 22 October 2026 names Łukasz Dobrzyński (Morąg) as referee, with Michał Skrzypiński and Krzysztof Sasin as assistants and Przemysław Czerw as fourth official.
- The club states Dobrzyński has not previously refereed a Chojniczanka match and that this is his first season in the II liga.
- In six matches this season — four in the II liga, one in the Polish Cup and one in the III liga — he showed 34 yellow cards and awarded one penalty, with no red cards.
ConfirmedSources checked 23 Oct 2026, 12:35 · Europe/Bucharest
The extension settles the future of an attacker the club has been using in the first team since his February debut, and it was completed in the same week as the Legia II fixture rather than at the end of the autumn round. For a squad whose recent scoring has come from a small group, removing a contract question around a young forward keeps the attacking options stable going into a home game. Nothing in the announcement speaks to Saturday's selection, and his appearance and goal totals have been accumulated across league and cup football rather than from a fixed starting role.
- Chojniczanka announced on 21 October 2026 that it had used its option to extend the contract of 20-year-old forward Jakub Oleksiewicz by 12 months, to 31 December 2027.
- The club's own recap of his path says he has made 27 first-team appearances with six goals and one assist, and that he scored in the cup penalty shootout against Zawisza Bydgoszcz.
- J. Oleksiewicz started 2 of the 5 recent team fixtures with available lineups.
ConfirmedSources checked 23 Oct 2026, 12:35 · Europe/Bucharest
Šabala is the only current Chojniczanka player inside the club's top five scorers at central level, which gives the home fixture against a reserve side a historical reference point beyond this season's table. He is still converting, having scored from the spot in the 2:1 win at Hutnik on 17 October, so the milestone is not purely retrospective. The milestone itself changes no selection or tactical decision, and with 46 goals between him and the record no new landmark is imminent in this match.
- A Chojniczanka feature published on 29 September 2026 states that Valērijs Šabala has moved ahead of Szymon Skrzypczak into second place on the club's all-time scoring list at central level, with 44 goals.
- The same feature lists leader Tomasz Mikołajczak on 90 goals, 46 clear of Šabala.
- Šabala converted a penalty in Chojniczanka's 2:1 win at Hutnik Kraków on 17 October 2026.
- V. Šabala started 5 of the 5 recent team fixtures with available lineups.
ConfirmedSources checked 23 Oct 2026, 12:35 · Europe/Bucharest

BetBugs edges

Compare BetBugs' chances with the market's.

Positive edges · 3

BetBugs probabilities

How likely BetBugs thought each outcome was.

Result1 of 4 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Chojniczanka are at home with a better league position and face a Legia II side that has lost four of six away matches.
- Chojniczanka at home: 2W-2D-2L, 10 goals for and 10 against in 6 matches.
- Legia II away: 1W-1D-4L, 7 goals for and 14 against in 6 matches.
- League positions: Chojniczanka 8th on 18 points; Legia II 14th on 13.
BetBugs · Match WinnerlostChojniczanka ChojniceEstimated chance44%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Low first-half scoring on Legia II's away side and a balanced home first-half record make a level half likely.
- Chojniczanka home first half: 2.17 total goals per match in 6.
- Legia II away first half: 1.00 total goal per match in 6.
- Chojniczanka overall first half: 1.77 total goals; Legia II overall: 1.08.
BetBugs · First Half WinnerlostDrawEstimated chance43%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Legia II concede heavily in second halves away while Chojniczanka are tighter after the break at home.
- Chojniczanka home second half: 0.67 scored, 0.50 conceded per match in 6.
- Legia II away second half: 0.67 scored, 1.83 conceded per match in 6.
- Legia II overall second half: 1.33 scored, 1.25 conceded in 12.
BetBugs · Second Half WinnerwonChojniczanka ChojniceEstimated chance40%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Chojniczanka's home first-half scoring is modest but slightly better than Legia II's away first-half output. Low first-half scoring on Legia II's away side and a balanced home first-half record make a level half likely.
- Chojniczanka home first half: 1.00 scored, 1.17 conceded per match in 6.
- Legia II away first half: 0.50 scored, 0.50 conceded per match in 6.
- Chojniczanka home first half: 2.17 total goals per match in 6.
- Legia II away first half: 1.00 total goal per match in 6.
BetBugs · Double Chance First HalflostChojniczanka Chojnice or DrawEstimated chance74%

Goals5 of 6 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Both teams' home or away matches average well above two and a half goals, with each scoring in four of six relevant games.
- Chojniczanka home matches average 3.33 total goals (1.67 for, 1.67 against).
- Legia II away matches average 3.50 total goals (1.17 for, 2.33 against).
- Both teams scored in 4 of 6 relevant home or away matches.
BetBugs · Goals Over/UnderwonOver 2.5Estimated chance58%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Market price 1.50
The read
Both teams have scored in two-thirds of their relevant home or away matches and each concedes regularly.
- Chojniczanka both scored in 9 of 13 overall and 4 of 6 at home.
- Legia II both scored in 7 of 12 overall and 4 of 6 away.
- Chojniczanka conceded in 12 of 13; Legia II scored in 10 of 12.
BetBugs · Both Teams to ScorewonYesEstimated chance62%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Chojniczanka score at a steady home rate and face a Legia II away defence conceding more than two per match.
- Chojniczanka home: 10 goals in 6 matches, 1.67 per game.
- Legia II away: 14 goals conceded in 6 matches, 2.33 per game.
- Chojniczanka scored in 10 of 13 overall matches.
BetBugs · Home Goals TotalwonChojniczanka Chojnice over 1.5Estimated chance58%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Legia II's away scoring rate is low and Chojniczanka's home concession rate leaves them more likely to be held under two.
- Legia II away: 7 goals in 6 matches, 1.17 per game.
- Chojniczanka home: 10 goals conceded in 6 matches, 1.67 per game.
- Legia II failed to score in 2 of 12 overall matches.
BetBugs · Away Goals TotallostLegia Warszawa II under 1.5Estimated chance58%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
The relevant first-half splits average more than one goal, making at least one first-half goal more likely than not.
- Chojniczanka home first half: 2.17 total goals per match in 6.
- Legia II away first half: 1.00 total goal per match in 6.
- Chojniczanka overall first half: 1.77 total goals; Legia II overall: 1.08.
BetBugs · 1st Half GoalswonOver 0.5 goals in 1st halfEstimated chance70%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Legia II's away matches produce most of their goals after the break, pushing the second-half total above one and a half.
- Chojniczanka home second half: 1.17 total goals per match in 6.
- Legia II away second half: 2.50 total goals per match in 6.
- Legia II overall second half: 2.58 total goals per match in 12.
BetBugs · Goals Over Under Second HalfwonOver 1.5Estimated chance56%

League Table

II Liga - East 2026/2027

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF-GA	Pts	Form
8	Chojniczanka Chojnice	12	5	3	4	21-20	18	WDLWW
14	Legia Warszawa II	12	4	1	7	23-21	13	LDWWL

5pt gap between teams

Recent Form

Chojniczanka Chojnice

W2-1Hutnik KrakówOct 17II

D2-2Podhale Nowy TargOct 9II

L1-3Górnik ŁęcznaOct 4II

W3-1Olimpia GrudziądzSep 19II

W5-1Świt SkolwinSep 12II

D2-2Resovia RzeszówSep 5II

D1-1Sokół KleczewAug 29II

W2-0Stal Stalowa WolaAug 21II

W2-1Śląsk Wrocław IIAug 15II

L1-4Znicz PruszkówAug 9II

L0-2Podhale Nowy TargAug 5CUP

L0-3Sandecja Nowy SączAug 2II

L0-1Tychy 71Jul 26II

L2-3Miedz LegnicaJul 18FRI

W2-1Znicz PruszkówJul 10FRI

Legia Warszawa II

L1-2Tychy 71Oct 17II

D2-2Śląsk Wrocław IIOct 14II

W2-0Lechia Zielona GóraOct 10II

W3-0Podhale Nowy TargSep 19II

L1-4Górnik ŁęcznaSep 12II

L1-2Rekord Bielsko-BiałaSep 6II

L1-4Zawisza BydgoszczAug 29II

W6-1Sokół KleczewAug 23II

L0-2Hutnik KrakówAug 16II

W5-0Świt SkolwinAug 9II

L1-2Znicz PruszkówJul 31II

L0-2Stal Stalowa WolaJul 25II

D0-0Unia SkierniewiceJul 18FRI

L1-2Radomiak RadomJul 17FRI

W4-1Barycz SułówJul 8FRI

Squad & Injuries

Chojniczanka Chojnice

28 available

Attackers6

Midfielders10

Defenders10

Goalkeeper2

Legia Warszawa II

32 available

Attackers6

Midfielders16

Defenders7

Goalkeeper3

Chojniczanka Chojnice2Legia Warszawa II3

Quick Take

Context

BetBugs edges

Draw or Legia Warszawa II

Under 2.5

Draw

Yes

BetBugs probabilities

Result1 of 4 landed

Goals5 of 6 landed

League Table

Recent Form

Chojniczanka Chojnice

Legia Warszawa II

Squad & Injuries

Chojniczanka Chojnice

Legia Warszawa II