II Liga - EastFull time

Predictions graded

Lechia Zielona Gora0Legia Warszawa II2

HT 0–1Sat 10 Oct 2026, 16:00 Predictions graded

Predictions2–1115%

Edges0–40%

Quick Take

Pre-match view

Context last updated 7 Oct 2026, 23:46 · Europe/Bucharest

Lechia Zielona Gora host a Legia Warszawa II side that has lost all four away league games, scoring three and conceding twelve, while Lechia themselves have won only one home league game.

A home win or draw with goals at both ends is the likeliest shape of the match. No reviewed price offers value: Lechia or draw at 1.38, both teams to score at 1.5, over 2.5 goals at 1.55 and a Lechia win at 2.1 are all too short.

Context

That split is the central fact of this fixture: the visitors' points have come almost entirely at home, and their away games have turned into heavy defeats. Lechia have won only one league game at home themselves, so the contrast is less decisive than it first looks. Four away matches is a small sample, and the margins — 1-4 at Górnik Łęczna and 1-4 at Zawisza Bydgoszcz — were wide on both occasions.
- League table: Legia Warszawa II away record 4 played, 0 wins, 4 losses, 3 goals scored, 12 conceded
- League table: Legia Warszawa II home record 5 played, 3 wins, 2 losses, 15 scored, 5 conceded
Lechia concede 2.00 goals per tracked home match and 1.14 of those before half-time, so a home shut-out is the least likely part of their game. Legia II have scored in three of four away league games, though they were also kept out once. That combination makes goals at both ends the more plausible pattern without settling who wins.
- Tracked home split: 7 matches, 1W 3D 3L, 1.71 scored and 2.00 conceded per game, both teams scored in 6, first-half goals against 1.14 per game
- Overall: 11 tracked matches, one clean sheet, 1.64 conceded per game
This is a single result rather than a pattern, and it came in a game Legia II were leading at the interval. It shows how quickly their away matches have turned, so a tight half-time score would not make the second half safe. Their 3-0 home win over Podhale Nowy Targ on 19 September shows the same squad producing a very different performance on home ground.
- 12 September 2026: Górnik Łęczna 4-1 Legia Warszawa II, half-time 0-1
- 19 September 2026: Legia Warszawa II 3-0 Podhale Nowy Targ

BetBugs edges

Compare BetBugs' chances with the market's.

Other edges · 4

The published chance does not exceed the market's implied chance.

Double ChancelostUncertainty band: Strong lean

Lechia Zielona Gora or Draw

1.38fair 1.39

BetBugs 72% · Market 72.5%

−0.5ppshort

Lechia sit higher and meet a visiting side that has lost every away league game, but their own home record shows only one win. Lechia's home games have repeatedly finished level and neither side's profile points to a decisive margin.

Both Teams to ScorelostUncertainty band: Lean

Yes

1.50fair 1.59

BetBugs 63% · Market 66.7%

−3.7ppshort

Lechia keep almost no clean sheets at home while Legia II have found the net in most away fixtures.

Goals Over/UnderlostUncertainty band: Lean

Over 2.5

1.55fair 1.61

BetBugs 62% · Market 64.5%

−2.5ppshort

Both teams' home and away splits point to goals at both ends, and Legia II's away games have been especially open.

Match WinnerlostUncertainty band: Near coin-flip

Lechia Zielona Gora

2.10fair 2.33

BetBugs 43% · Market 47.6%

−4.6ppshort

Lechia sit higher and meet a visiting side that has lost every away league game, but their own home record shows only one win.

BetBugs probabilities

How likely BetBugs thought each outcome was.

Result0 of 5 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Market price 2.10
The read
Lechia sit higher and meet a visiting side that has lost every away league game, but their own home record shows only one win.
- Lechia home split: 1W 3D 3L in 7 tracked home matches, 1.71 scored and 2.00 conceded per game
- Legia Warszawa II away split: 1W 4L in 5 tracked away matches, 1.2 scored and 2.4 conceded per game
- League table: Lechia 7th on 15 points, Legia II 14th on 9 points
- Lechia home league record 1W 3D 2L with 12 goals for and 12 against
BetBugs · Match WinnerlostLechia Zielona GoraEstimated chance43%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Both teams' first-half goal rates are low, making a level half-time score the most common single outcome.
- Lechia home first halves: 0.43 for and 1.14 against per game
- Legia II away first halves: 0.4 for and 0.6 against per game
- Combined first-half expectation is low for both sides
- Legia II's most recent away match was 1-0 at half-time
BetBugs · First Half WinnerlostDrawEstimated chance45%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Lechia finish home matches strongly while Legia II concede heavily after the break on their travels.
- Lechia score 1.29 second-half goals and concede 0.86 per tracked home match
- Legia II concede 1.8 second-half goals per tracked away match
- Legia II lost their most recent away match 1-4 after leading 1-0 at half-time
- Legia II score 1.25 second-half goals per match overall
BetBugs · Second Half WinnerlostLechia Zielona GoraEstimated chance41%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Market price 1.38
The read
Lechia sit higher and meet a visiting side that has lost every away league game, but their own home record shows only one win. Lechia's home games have repeatedly finished level and neither side's profile points to a decisive margin.
- Lechia home split: 1W 3D 3L in 7 tracked home matches, 1.71 scored and 2.00 conceded per game
- Legia Warszawa II away split: 1W 4L in 5 tracked away matches, 1.2 scored and 2.4 conceded per game
- Lechia have drawn 3 of 7 tracked home matches and 3 of 10 league games
- Legia Warszawa II have drawn none of 9 league games
BetBugs · Double ChancelostLechia Zielona Gora or DrawEstimated chance72%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Lechia are the stronger side overall but their home first halves have been slow and often losing. Both teams' first-half goal rates are low, making a level half-time score the most common single outcome.
- Lechia average 0.43 first-half goals for and 1.14 against in 7 home matches
- Lechia trailed at half-time in each of their last three home matches (0-2, 0-1, 0-2)
- Lechia home first halves: 0.43 for and 1.14 against per game
- Legia II away first halves: 0.4 for and 0.6 against per game
BetBugs · Double Chance First HalflostLechia Zielona Gora or DrawEstimated chance73%

Goals2 of 8 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Market price 1.55
The read
Both teams' home and away splits point to goals at both ends, and Legia II's away games have been especially open.
- Lechia home matches: 1.71 for and 2.00 against per game
- Legia II away matches: 1.2 for and 2.4 against per game
- Legia II's four away league games produced 15 goals
- Lechia's last six matches averaged 3.3 goals
BetBugs · Goals Over/UnderlostOver 2.5Estimated chance62%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Market price 1.50
The read
Lechia keep almost no clean sheets at home while Legia II have found the net in most away fixtures.
- Both teams scored in 9 of Lechia's 11 tracked matches and 6 of 7 home matches
- Lechia have one clean sheet in 11 matches and none at home
- Legia II scored in 3 of 4 away league games
- Legia II conceded in 4 of 5 tracked away matches
BetBugs · Both Teams to ScorelostYesEstimated chance63%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Lechia score nearly twice per home game against a defence conceding three per away fixture.
- Lechia home split: 1.71 goals per match
- Lechia home league record: 12 goals in 6 games
- Legia II conceded 12 goals in 4 away league games, 3.0 per match
- Lechia scored one or fewer in each of their last three home matches
BetBugs · Home Goals TotallostLechia Zielona Gora over 1.5Estimated chance53%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Legia II's away scoring is modest at around one goal per match, below the two needed here.
- Legia II away split: 1.2 goals per match
- Legia II league away record: 3 goals in 4 games
- Legia II scored more than one goal in one of their last four matches
- Legia II were shut out in one away league game
BetBugs · Away Goals TotallostLegia Warszawa II under 1.5Estimated chance68%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Lechia concede in essentially every home match, so a home clean sheet is unlikely.
- Lechia: no clean sheets in 7 tracked home matches
- Lechia overall: one clean sheet in 11 matches
- Legia II scored in 3 of 4 away league games
- Lechia home goals against average 2.00
BetBugs · Team to ScorewonLegia Warszawa II to scoreEstimated chance85%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Legia II concede at a high rate away from home against a side that scores regularly at home.
- Lechia scored 12 goals in 6 home league games
- Legia II concede 2.4 per tracked away match
- Legia II kept one clean sheet in 5 away matches
- Lechia home scoring average 1.71 per match
BetBugs · Team to ScorelostLechia Zielona Gora to scoreEstimated chance88%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Recent home and away matches for both sides have almost always produced a goal before the break.
- Lechia home first halves: 0.43 scored and 1.14 conceded per game
- Legia II away first halves: 0.4 scored and 0.6 conceded per game
- All three of Lechia's recent home matches had a first-half goal
- All three of Legia II's recent away matches had a first-half goal
BetBugs · 1st Half GoalswonOver 0.5 goals in 1st halfEstimated chance70%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Both teams do most of their scoring after the break and Legia II's away second halves have been especially open.
- Lechia second-half home split: 1.29 scored and 0.86 conceded
- Legia II second-half split overall: 1.25 scored and 0.75 conceded
- Legia II concede 1.8 second-half goals per away match
- Five of Legia II's last six matches had two or more second-half goals
BetBugs · Goals Over Under Second HalflostOver 1.5Estimated chance64%

League Table

II Liga - East 2026/2027

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF-GA	Pts	Form
7	Lechia Zielona Gora	10	4	3	3	20-16	15	WLWLW
14	Legia Warszawa II	9	3	0	6	18-17	9	WLLLW

6pt gap between teams

Recent Form

Lechia Zielona Gora

W3-1Sandecja Nowy SączOct 3II

L1-3Znicz PruszkówSep 19II

W1-0Resovia RzeszówSep 11II

L1-4Świt SkolwinSep 5II

L0-2Ruch ChorzówSep 2CUP

W3-1Avia ŚwidnikAug 29II

D1-1Hutnik KrakówAug 23II

L1-2Zawisza BydgoszczAug 16II

W6-1Sokół KleczewAug 8II

D2-2Olimpia GrudziądzAug 1II

D1-1Rekord Bielsko-BiałaJul 25II

L0-2Miedź Legnica IIJul 18FRI

W2-1Warta PoznańJul 18FRI

L2-3Carina GubinJul 15FRI

W2-1Barycz SułówJul 11FRI

Legia Warszawa II

W3-0Podhale Nowy TargSep 19II

L1-4Górnik ŁęcznaSep 12II

L1-2Rekord Bielsko-BiałaSep 6II

L1-4Zawisza BydgoszczAug 29II

W6-1Sokół KleczewAug 23II

L0-2Hutnik KrakówAug 16II

W5-0Świt SkolwinAug 9II

L1-2Znicz PruszkówJul 31II

L0-2Stal Stalowa WolaJul 25II

D0-0Unia SkierniewiceJul 18FRI

L1-2Radomiak RadomJul 17FRI

W4-1Barycz SułówJul 8FRI

L1-2Zawisza BydgoszczJul 4FRI

W3-0Znicz Biała PiskaMay 30III

L0-3Widzew IIMay 21III

Squad & Injuries

Lechia Zielona Gora

26 available

Attackers2

Midfielders16

Defenders6

Goalkeeper2

Legia Warszawa II

32 available

Attackers6

Midfielders16

Defenders7

Goalkeeper3