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Predictions graded

Górnik Łęczna3Chojniczanka Chojnice1

HT 2–0Sun 4 Oct 2026, 15:00 Predictions graded

Predictions11–285%

Edges5–271%

Quick Take

Pre-match view

Context last updated 2 Oct 2026, 06:42 · Europe/Bucharest

Second-placed Górnik Łęczna host a Chojniczanka side unbeaten in five league games, with Valērijs Šabala scoring in each of his last five.

Górnik's home record of three wins from four and 10 goals makes them the likelier winner, but their recent league games have been quiet before the break. Of the prices reviewed, only 3.2 on no goals in the first half offers anything; Górnik at 1.88 and Over 2.5 at 1.65 ask more than the record justifies.

Context

Šabala's run is Chojniczanka's most sustained individual scoring sequence in four years and has helped the club take seven points from its last three league games. A striker scoring in five straight matches is a plausible edge for the visitors, though it is a form signal rather than a tactical one. The counterweight is the opponent and the context: Górnik have kept three clean sheets in their last five league games, including the 0-0 at Zawisza and home wins of 4-0 and 1-0, and Šabala's streak was assembled against a range of mid-table opposition rather than the division's front-runners. It is a genuine talking point, but it should not be read as a repeatable match-winning mechanism on its own.
- Chojniczanka's official account said on 29 September 2026 that Valērijs Šabala had scored in each of the club's five previous matches.
- The same post named the previous Chojniczanka player with such a run as Artur Pląskowski, who scored in six straight games in 2021-22.
- The club listed Šabala second on its all-time scorers at central level with 44 goals, behind Tomasz Mikołajczak on 90.
- A 19 September 2026 club post recorded Šabala's fifth consecutive goal, a fourth-minute opener in the 3-1 win over Olimpia Grudziądz.
ConfirmedSources checked 2 Oct 2026, 06:39 · Europe/Bucharest
Neither side has lost in five league games and both have taken 11 points from that run, so recent results alone do not separate them. The venues do: Górnik have scored 10 and conceded 4 in four home league games, while Chojniczanka have 8 scored and 6 conceded from four away games, making Łęczna's home form the clearer edge on this season's record.
- II Liga East standings, fetched 2 October 2026: Górnik Łęczna 2nd, 9 played, 5W-2D-2L, 18 scored, 9 conceded, last-five form DWWWD.
- Chojniczanka Chojnice 8th, 9 played, 4W-2D-3L, 16 scored, 14 conceded, last-five form WWDDW.
- Górnik home league record: 4 played, 3W-0D-1L, 10 scored, 4 conceded. Chojniczanka away league record: 4 played, 2W-1D-1L, 8 scored, 6 conceded.
The Chojniczanka fixture is the final Łęczna home game held under the club's existing floodlights, a small milestone for a side already reshaping its stadium infrastructure. The projected playing effect is minimal, since the match itself runs its course before any work starts and no change touches the pitch or the ball. What it does explain is why Górnik's later October home games, including the 27 October Polish Cup tie with GKS Katowice, are being scheduled as afternoon fixtures. It is background for readers following the club's season rather than a factor in this result.
- Górnik Łęczna announced on 25 September 2026 that LED floodlight modernisation at their stadium will start after the Chojniczanka match.
- The club said all home fixtures after 5 October will be played in daylight because of the works.
ConfirmedSources checked 2 Oct 2026, 06:39 · Europe/Bucharest
The club's own card report rules out any suspension carry-over from the 0-0 at Zawisza on 18 September, so selection for this fixture is unaffected. The note matters mainly as forward-looking discipline information, because four regulars sit one booking from a ban that would remove them from a later game. Since none of the four is unavailable now, the immediate impact on Sunday's match is limited to confirming that Górnik have no forced absences behind this particular risk.
- Górnik Łęczna's card report published on 30 September 2026 states that yellow cards for Paweł Jaroszyński and Jindrich Novotny in the 0-0 at Zawisza Bydgoszcz do not trigger a suspension for the Chojniczanka match.
- The club listed Jaroszyński, Adam Deja, Jakub Myszor and Novotny on three bookings, one away from a ban.
ConfirmedSources checked 2 Oct 2026, 06:39 · Europe/Bucharest

BetBugs edges

Compare BetBugs' chances with the market's.

Positive edges · 2

Other edges · 5

The published chance does not exceed the market's implied chance.

Double Chance First HalfwonUncertainty band: Strong lean

Górnik Łęczna or Draw

1.20fair 1.28

BetBugs 78% · Market 83.3%

−5.3ppshort

Górnik's first-half defence is strong and Chojniczanka concede early goals, so a narrow home lead at the break is possible. Both teams do most of their scoring after the break, which makes a level first half the most likely single outcome.

Double ChancewonUncertainty band: Strong lean

Górnik Łęczna or Draw

1.25fair 1.32

BetBugs 76% · Market 80%

−4.0ppshort

The higher-placed team with the better home record and a stronger goal difference has the clearest route to the win. Both teams are in solid form and have shown they can cancel each other out over recent weeks.

Goals Over/UnderwonUncertainty band: Slight lean

Over 2.5

1.65fair 1.79

BetBugs 56% · Market 60.6%

−4.6ppshort

Both teams score at a healthy rate and Chojniczanka's recent matches have been high-scoring, so three goals is a realistic total.

Both Teams to ScorewonUncertainty band: Slight lean

Yes

1.57fair 1.82

BetBugs 55% · Market 63.7%

−8.7ppshort

Chojniczanka's scoring run and Górnik's regular home scoring make goals at both ends the more likely outcome.

Match WinnerwonUncertainty band: Near coin-flip

Górnik Łęczna

1.88fair 2.00

BetBugs 50% · Market 53.2%

−3.2ppshort

The higher-placed team with the better home record and a stronger goal difference has the clearest route to the win.

BetBugs probabilities

How likely BetBugs thought each outcome was.

Result3 of 5 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Market price 1.88
The read
The higher-placed team with the better home record and a stronger goal difference has the clearest route to the win.
- Górnik are 2nd with 17 points from 9 games (5W-2D-2L, 18 scored, 9 conceded).
- Their home league record is 3W-0D-1L with 10 goals scored and 4 conceded.
- Chojniczanka are 8th with 14 points from 9 games (4W-2D-3L).
BetBugs · Match WinnerwonGórnik ŁęcznaEstimated chance50%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Market price 2.30
The read
Both teams do most of their scoring after the break, which makes a level first half the most likely single outcome.
- Górnik were level at half-time in 4 of their last 6 league games.
- Górnik average 0.7 first-half goals for and 0.3 against.
- Chojniczanka's away first-half averages are 0.6 scored and 0.6 conceded.
BetBugs · First Half WinnerlostDrawEstimated chance45%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Górnik do most of their scoring after the break and have the stronger second-half numbers.
- Górnik average 1.3 second-half goals for and 0.6 against, and 1.6 for at home.
- Chojniczanka concede 1.0 second-half goals per away match.
- Górnik scored 4 second-half goals in two of their last six league games.
BetBugs · Second Half WinnerlostGórnik ŁęcznaEstimated chance46%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Market price 1.25
The read
The higher-placed team with the better home record and a stronger goal difference has the clearest route to the win. Both teams are in solid form and have shown they can cancel each other out over recent weeks.
- Górnik are 2nd with 17 points from 9 games (5W-2D-2L, 18 scored, 9 conceded).
- Their home league record is 3W-0D-1L with 10 goals scored and 4 conceded.
- Górnik have drawn 2 of 9 league games, both inside their last six.
- Chojniczanka have drawn 2 of 9 league games.
BetBugs · Double ChancewonGórnik Łęczna or DrawEstimated chance76%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Market price 1.20
The read
Górnik's first-half defence is strong and Chojniczanka concede early goals, so a narrow home lead at the break is possible. Both teams do most of their scoring after the break, which makes a level first half the most likely single outcome.
- Górnik average 0.7 first-half goals for and 0.3 against per competitive match.
- Chojniczanka concede 0.9 first-half goals per competitive match.
- Górnik were level at half-time in 4 of their last 6 league games.
- Górnik average 0.7 first-half goals for and 0.3 against.
BetBugs · Double Chance First HalfwonGórnik Łęczna or DrawEstimated chance78%

Goals8 of 8 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Market price 1.65
The read
Both teams score at a healthy rate and Chojniczanka's recent matches have been high-scoring, so three goals is a realistic total.
- Górnik's 10 competitive matches average 2.0 goals for and 0.9 against.
- Chojniczanka's 10 average 1.6 for and 1.6 against.
- Chojniczanka's last six league games produced 15 goals for them and 6 against.
BetBugs · Goals Over/UnderwonOver 2.5Estimated chance56%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Market price 1.57
The read
Chojniczanka's scoring run and Górnik's regular home scoring make goals at both ends the more likely outcome.
- Chojniczanka have scored in each of their last six league matches.
- Górnik have scored in five of their last six league games.
- Górnik conceded in 6 of 10 competitive matches this season.
BetBugs · Both Teams to ScorewonYesEstimated chance55%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Górnik score at a high rate in front of their own crowd, so two or more from them is a reasonable expectation.
- Górnik average 2.0 goals per competitive match and 2.4 per home match.
- They have scored two or more in three of their last six league games.
- Chojniczanka concede 1.6 goals per match across 10 competitive games.
BetBugs · Home Goals TotalwonGórnik Łęczna over 1.5Estimated chance55%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Górnik's defence is the strongest part of their team, so holding the visitors to one goal or fewer is the more likely outcome.
- Górnik's goals-against average is 0.9 per match and 0.8 at home.
- Chojniczanka's overall scoring average is 1.6 per match.
- Górnik kept four clean sheets in ten competitive matches.
BetBugs · Away Goals TotalwonChojniczanka Chojnice under 1.5Estimated chance55%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
The visitors score consistently enough that keeping them out for the whole match is the less likely outcome.
- Chojniczanka have scored in each of their last six league games.
- Chojniczanka average 1.6 goals per competitive match.
- Górnik conceded in 6 of their 10 competitive matches.
BetBugs · Team to ScorewonChojniczanka Chojnice to scoreEstimated chance67%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Chojniczanka's matches almost always see an early goal, which lifts the chance of at least one before the break.
- Chojniczanka's last six league games all produced a first-half goal.
- Górnik's competitive matches average 1.0 first-half goals in total.
- Chojniczanka's matches average 1.6 first-half goals in total.
BetBugs · 1st Half GoalswonOver 0.5 goals in 1st halfEstimated chance60%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Low first-half scoring on both sides makes a blank at one end before the break much more likely.
- Górnik have kept the first half clean in most of their recent league games.
- Górnik's first-half goals-against average is 0.3 per match.
- Only 3 of Chojniczanka's last 6 league games had both teams scoring before half-time.
BetBugs · Both Teams Score First HalfwonNoEstimated chance80%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Górnik score most of their goals late and Chojniczanka's games also produce second-half goals, so two or more after the break is plausible.
- Górnik's matches average 1.9 second-half goals combined (1.3 for, 0.6 against).
- Chojniczanka's matches average 1.6 second-half goals combined (0.9 for, 0.7 against).
- Górnik's last six league games averaged 2.3 second-half goals in total.
BetBugs · Goals Over Under Second HalfwonOver 1.5Estimated chance54%

Head-to-Head

0W · 1D · 3W

D0-0Górnik ŁęcznavChojniczanka ChojniceMar 18, 2023I L

L0-2Górnik ŁęcznavChojniczanka ChojniceJan 28, 2023FRI

L2-0Chojniczanka ChojnicevGórnik ŁęcznaJan 28, 2023FRI

L2-1Chojniczanka ChojnicevGórnik ŁęcznaAug 19, 2022I L

Chojniczanka Chojnice unbeaten in 4 meetingsChojniczanka Chojnice: 3 clean sheets1.8 goals/game avg

League Table

II Liga - East 2026/2027

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF-GA	Pts	Form
2	Górnik Łęczna	9	5	2	2	18-9	17	DWWWD
8	Chojniczanka Chojnice	9	4	2	3	16-14	14	WWDDW

3pt gap between teams

Recent Form

Górnik Łęczna

D2-2Widzew ŁódźSep 26FRI

D0-0Zawisza BydgoszczSep 18II

W4-1Legia Warszawa IISep 12II

W4-0Sokół KleczewSep 5II

W1-0Rekord Bielsko-BiałaAug 30II

D1-1Sandecja Nowy SączAug 21II

W5-2Podhale Nowy TargAug 14II

L0-2Śląsk Wrocław IIAug 9II

W2-0KaliszAug 5CUP

L0-1Avia ŚwidnikAug 1II

W3-2Świt SkolwinJul 25II

L0-2Hapoel KatamonJul 19FRI

W4-1Chełmianka ChełmJul 11FRI

L0-1Hetman ZamoscJul 8FRI

L2-4Stal RzeszówJul 4FRI

Chojniczanka Chojnice

W3-1Olimpia GrudziądzSep 19II

W5-1Świt SkolwinSep 12II

D2-2Resovia RzeszówSep 5II

D1-1Sokół KleczewAug 29II

W2-0Stal Stalowa WolaAug 21II

W2-1Śląsk Wrocław IIAug 15II

L1-4Znicz PruszkówAug 9II

L0-2Podhale Nowy TargAug 5CUP

L0-3Sandecja Nowy SączAug 2II

L0-1Tychy 71Jul 26II

L2-3Miedz LegnicaJul 18FRI

W2-1Znicz PruszkówJul 10FRI

W2-0Olimpia ElblągJul 7FRI

L0-2Arka GdyniaJul 4FRI

L1-4Petrolul PloiestiJul 2FRI

Squad & Injuries

Górnik Łęczna

26 available

Attackers5

Midfielders13

Defenders6

Goalkeeper2

Chojniczanka Chojnice

28 available

Attackers6

Midfielders10

Defenders10

Goalkeeper2

Quick Take

Context

BetBugs edges

Under 0.5 goals in 1st half

Draw

Górnik Łęczna or Draw

Górnik Łęczna or Draw

Over 2.5

Yes

Górnik Łęczna

Result3 of 5 landed

Goals8 of 8 landed

Head-to-Head

League Table

Recent Form

Górnik Łęczna

Chojniczanka Chojnice

Squad & Injuries

Górnik Łęczna

Chojniczanka Chojnice