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Predictions graded

Sporting San Jose3AD San Carlos3

HT 3–1Tue 20 Oct 2026, 00:00 Predictions graded

Predictions7–847%

Edges3–538%

Quick Take

Pre-match view

Context last updated 16 Oct 2026, 05:08 · Europe/Bucharest

Sporting San José bring the stronger home form into a round 12 meeting with an AD San Carlos side that has not drawn a league game this season.

The hosts are the likelier winners, but San Carlos won the last meeting 1-0 and have taken three of five league away games, so the 1.57 on a home win offers nothing; the two prices with something behind them are the draw or San Carlos at 2.20 and San Carlos to win at 4.75.

Context

Inter San Carlos won the northern derby 2-1 at the Estadio Carlos Ugalde Álvarez on 13 October, with Wilmer Azofeifa scoring and Roberto Córdoba replying for the hosts. AD San Carlos now travel to Grecia for round 12, so the result is the freshest competitive picture of the visitors. The derby defeat interrupted a productive run, and San Carlos had already won away at Herediano and Alajuelense in this Apertura, so their road form does not obviously crumble after a setback. Inter's win also kept the top of the table tight, adding pressure on the games around it.
- Inter San Carlos beat AD San Carlos 2-1 on 13 October in Ciudad Quesada.
- Roberto Córdoba scored AD San Carlos's goal.
- The derby result kept the qualification race at the top of the Apertura table tight.
ConfirmedSources checked 16 Oct 2026, 05:05 · Europe/Bucharest
Sporting San José played round 11 away to Saprissa at the Estadio Ricardo Saprissa on Thursday 15 October, a match billed as a fight for first place in the Apertura. They host San Carlos on Monday 19 October, roughly three days later, while the visitors have had since 13 October to recover. That gap can push a coach toward rotating tired starters or managing minutes, though Sporting's line-up for Monday is not yet set and any rotation remains a staff choice. The scheduling is the clearest structural difference between the two sides heading into round 12.
- Sporting faced Saprissa in round 11 on 15 October at the Estadio Ricardo Saprissa.
- The round 11 fixture was billed as a contest for first place in the Apertura table.
- Sporting host San Carlos in round 12 on Monday 19 October.
ConfirmedSources checked 16 Oct 2026, 05:05 · Europe/Bucharest
Ariel Soto has collected four yellow cards across nine league appearances this Apertura, putting the Sporting defender one booking away from a suspension. A caution in Monday's home match would remove him from the following round, which can shape how a defender contests duels late in a physical game. The total comes from a card-tracking database rather than an official disciplinary notice, and a ban takes effect only if the threshold is reached, so no suspension is currently in force. Whether the staff protect him is unknown.
- Ariel Soto has four yellow cards in nine league appearances for Sporting.
- He is at risk of suspension.
- A. Soto started 5 of the 5 recent team fixtures with available lineups.
ReportedSources checked 16 Oct 2026, 05:05 · Europe/BucharestTransfermarktwww.transfermarkt.com · 16 Oct 2026
The round 12 fixture is scheduled for Monday 19 October at 6:00 pm local time at Estadio Puente Piedra, the ground Sporting use in Grecia rather than their San José name base. AD San Carlos must travel from Ciudad Quesada, and Sporting have made the venue a productive home in recent rounds. Playing outside San José also changes the pitch and crowd setting a visiting side prepares for. The venue detail matters mainly because the fixture feed left the ground unlisted, so it clarifies where the home advantage actually sits.
- The Apertura round 12 meeting between Sporting FC and San Carlos is scheduled for Monday 19 October at Estadio Puente Piedra.
- Kick-off is set for 6:00 pm local time.
- Sporting's recent home games have been staged at the Grecia venue.
ConfirmedSources checked 16 Oct 2026, 05:05 · Europe/Bucharest

BetBugs edges

Compare BetBugs' chances with the market's.

Positive edges · 2

Other edges · 6

The published chance does not exceed the market's implied chance.

Both Teams Score First HalflostUncertainty band: Strong lean

No

1.15fair 1.20

BetBugs 83% · Market 87%

−4.0ppshort

Sporting's very low first-half concession rate at home makes both teams scoring early unlikely.

Goals Over/UnderlostUncertainty band: Slight lean

Under 2.5

1.85fair 1.89

BetBugs 53% · Market 54.1%

−1.1ppshort

San Carlos's low away scoring and a tight recent head-to-head tend to keep totals down.

Both Teams to ScorelostUncertainty band: Slight lean

No

1.80fair 1.92

BetBugs 52% · Market 55.6%

−3.6ppshort

Both defences post clean sheets at a fair rate, so a blank for one side is slightly more likely.

First Half WinnerlostUncertainty band: Near coin-flip

Draw

2.20fair 2.50

BetBugs 40% · Market 45.5%

−5.5ppshort

Low first-half concession rates on both sides leave the opening period level most often.

BetBugs probabilities

How likely BetBugs thought each outcome was.

Result2 of 5 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Sporting score consistently at their adopted Grecia ground while San Carlos rarely reach a goal on the road, so the hosts carry the largest share.
- Sporting home split: 4W-1D-1L, 2.00 goals for and 0.83 against per match
- AD San Carlos away split: 3W-0D-5L, 0.88 goals for and 1.50 against per match
- Sporting home league ledger 12 goals for, 4 against across 5 games
- Head-to-head last five: two Sporting wins, two San Carlos wins, one draw
BetBugs · Match WinnerlostSporting San JoseEstimated chance47%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Market price 2.20
The read
Low first-half concession rates on both sides leave the opening period level most often.
- Sporting first-half goals against 0.17 per home match
- Five of the last six head-to-head first halves were separated by one goal or fewer
- San Carlos first-half goals for 0.63 per away match
- Sporting first-half goals for 1.33 per home match
BetBugs · First Half WinnerlostDrawEstimated chance40%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
San Carlos fade after the break away from home, giving Sporting the larger second-half share.
- Sporting second-half goals for 0.67 per match
- San Carlos away second-half goals against 0.88 per match
- San Carlos away second-half goals for 0.25 per match
- Sporting second-half goals against 0.67 per match
BetBugs · Second Half WinnerlostSporting San JoseEstimated chance41%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Sporting score consistently at their adopted Grecia ground while San Carlos rarely reach a goal on the road, so the hosts carry the largest share. Two top-four teams with similar scoring output could cancel out, keeping the draw a real share.
- Sporting home split: 4W-1D-1L, 2.00 goals for and 0.83 against per match
- AD San Carlos away split: 3W-0D-5L, 0.88 goals for and 1.50 against per match
- One draw in the last five head-to-head meetings
- Sporting concede 0.85 per match overall
BetBugs · Double ChancewonSporting San Jose or DrawEstimated chance75%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Market price 1.13
The read
Sporting start strongly at home in first halves while San Carlos score modestly early on the road. Low first-half concession rates on both sides leave the opening period level most often.
- Sporting first-half goals for 1.33 per home match
- Sporting first-half goals against 0.17 per home match
- Five of the last six head-to-head first halves were separated by one goal or fewer
BetBugs · Double Chance First HalfwonSporting San Jose or DrawEstimated chance78%

Goals5 of 10 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Market price 1.85
The read
San Carlos's low away scoring and a tight recent head-to-head tend to keep totals down.
- San Carlos average 0.88 goals per away match
- Recent San Carlos matches produced 3, 1, 1, 2, 1, 3 goals
- Sporting concede only 0.85 per match overall
- Head-to-head last five averaged 1.6 goals
BetBugs · Goals Over/UnderlostUnder 2.5Estimated chance53%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Market price 1.80
The read
Both defences post clean sheets at a fair rate, so a blank for one side is slightly more likely.
- Sporting kept 4 clean sheets in 13 matches
- San Carlos kept 7 clean sheets in 15 matches
- Sporting home clean sheets 2 in 6
- San Carlos away clean sheets 3 in 8
BetBugs · Both Teams to ScorelostNoEstimated chance52%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Sporting score two or more regularly at home against a defence conceding 1.50 away.
- Sporting home goals for 2.00 per match
- Sporting scored 2+ in 5 of their last 6 matches
- Sporting home league record 12 goals in 5 games
- San Carlos away concede 1.50 per match
BetBugs · Home Goals TotalwonSporting San Jose over 1.5Estimated chance58%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
San Carlos's away output sits well below two goals per game.
- San Carlos away goals for 0.88 per match
- San Carlos scored 1 or 0 in five of their last six
- Sporting have 4 clean sheets in 13 matches
- San Carlos overall 13 goals in 15 matches
BetBugs · Away Goals TotallostAD San Carlos under 1.5Estimated chance74%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
San Carlos have found a goal in most recent matches, so the home side more often concede.
- Sporting home clean sheets 2 in 6
- San Carlos scored in 5 of their last 6
- Sporting conceded in 4 of 6 home matches
- San Carlos away goals for 0.88 per match
BetBugs · Team to ScorewonAD San Carlos to scoreEstimated chance69%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Sporting score consistently at home, so San Carlos more often concede.
- Sporting home goals for 2.00 per match
- Sporting scored in 5 of their last 6
- San Carlos away goals against 1.50 per match
- Sporting home league 12 goals in 5 games
BetBugs · Team to ScorewonSporting San Jose to scoreEstimated chance73%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Combining a home win with a clean sheet is uncommon, so the alternative dominates.
- Sporting home clean sheets 2 in 6
- San Carlos scored in 5 of their last 6
- Sporting home 1 loss in 6
- Sporting 4 clean sheets in 13
BetBugs · Home Win to NilwonNoEstimated chance80%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Market price 1.33
The read
Both teams contribute first-half goals, so at least one before the break is likely.
- Sporting first-half goals for 1.33 per home match
- San Carlos first-half goals for 0.63 per away match
- Only one of Sporting's last six first halves was 0-0
- San Carlos conceded a first-half goal in their last away match
BetBugs · 1st Half GoalswonOver 0.5 goals in 1st halfEstimated chance73%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Market price 1.15
The read
Sporting's very low first-half concession rate at home makes both teams scoring early unlikely.
- Sporting first-half goals against 0.17 per home match
- San Carlos first-half goals for 0.63 per away match
- San Carlos first-half goals against 0.63 per away match
- Sporting first-half goals for 1.33 per home match
BetBugs · Both Teams Score First HalflostNoEstimated chance83%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Both teams score modestly after the break, so fewer than two second-half goals is more likely.
- Sporting second-half goals for 0.67 and against 0.67 per match
- San Carlos away second-half goals for 0.25 per match
- San Carlos overall second-half goals for 0.47 per match
- Sporting second-half goals against 0.67 per match
BetBugs · Goals Over Under Second HalflostUnder 1.5Estimated chance63%

Head-to-Head

2W · 1D · 2W

L1-0San CarlosvSporting San JoseSep 7, 2026PRI

W1-0Sporting San JosevSan CarlosMar 15, 2026PRI

L3-0San CarlosvSporting San JoseJan 19, 2026PRI

W0-3San CarlosvSporting San JoseSep 29, 2025PRI

D1-1Sporting San JosevSan CarlosAug 16, 2025PRI

Sporting San Jose: 2 clean sheetsAD San Carlos: 2 clean sheets2 goals/game avg

League Table

Primera División 2026/2027

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF-GA	Pts	Form
3	Sporting San Jose Promotion - Primera Division (Apertura - Play Offs: Semi-finals)	10	6	2	2	19-9	20	WWWLW
4	AD San Carlos Promotion - Primera Division (Apertura - Play Offs: Semi-finals)	11	6	0	5	10-11	18	LWWWW