Primera DivisiónFull time

Predictions graded

Municipal Perez Zeledon0AD San Carlos2

HT 0–2Sat 12 Sept 2026, 02:00 Predictions graded

Predictions7–558%

Edges5–363%

Quick Take

Pre-match view

Context last updated 10 Sep 2026, 04:17 · Europe/Bucharest

A low-scoring, tight match is expected, with a draw the most likely full-time result.

The best value is on under 0.5 first-half goals at 2.70, while the double chance and first-half BTTS 'No' markets offer no edge.

Context

San Carlos midfielder Osvaldo Rojas had started against Saprissa, Herediano, Alajuelense and Puntarenas earlier in the Apertura.
Rojas is ruled out after right-knee surgery on 8 September, with the club estimating about eight months of recovery. His absence removes an established starter from San Carlos' midfield for this match. The team will need to replace his role from within the squad, though no specific replacement is identified in the available information.
- San Carlos confirmed that Rojas had surgery on his right knee on 8 September.
- The club said he began post-operative recovery immediately after being discharged.
- San Carlos’ medical estimate is approximately eight months for full recovery.
- Rojas had started against Saprissa, Herediano, Alajuelense and Puntarenas earlier in the Apertura.
ConfirmedSources checked 10 Sep 2026, 04:16 · Europe/BucharestLa Teja: San Carlos lose Osvaldo Rojas for the Aperturawww.lateja.cr · 9 Sep 2026Noticias Repretel: San Carlos confirm Rojas surgerywww.repretel.com · 2 Sep 2026
San Carlos sits 6th in the Primera División with 9 points from 7 matches.
They beat Sporting San Jose 1-0 on 2026-09-07, LD Alajuelense 1-0 on 2026-08-24, and CS Herediano 1-0 on 2026-08-15. Those wins show they can beat teams around them, but their away record is weaker with one win and two losses in three away games.
- San Carlos beat Sporting San Jose 1-0 on 2026-09-07.
- San Carlos beat LD Alajuelense 1-0 on 2026-08-24.
- San Carlos beat CS Herediano 1-0 on 2026-08-15.
Pérez Zeledón forward José Alvarado has started 3 of the 5 recent team fixtures with available lineups.
Coach Roberth Arias said he specifically wanted Alvarado at the club and trusts his contribution. Alvarado scored in the 3-2 round-seven win at Herediano, supporting his current place in the attack. His continued involvement gives Pérez Zeledón a forward option with recent scoring form.
- Roberth Arias said he had specifically requested José Alvarado’s arrival at Pérez Zeledón.
- Arias said he trusts what Alvarado can offer the team.
- Alvarado scored in Pérez Zeledón’s 3-2 round-seven victory at Herediano.
- J. Alvarado started 3 of the 5 recent team fixtures with available lineups.
ReportedSources checked 10 Sep 2026, 04:16 · Europe/BucharestLa Nación: José Alvarado is a key Pérez Zeledón playerwww.nacion.com · 8 Sep 2026
Perez Zeledon is 7th in the table with 8 points from 7 matches.
Their home record is 1 win, 1 draw, and 1 loss. They drew 1-1 with LD Alajuelense on 2026-08-30 and lost 0-1 to Inter San Carlos on 2026-08-16. This suggests they may not have a strong home advantage against San Carlos.
- Perez Zeledon drew 1-1 with LD Alajuelense at home on 2026-08-30.
- Perez Zeledon lost 0-1 to Inter San Carlos at home on 2026-08-16.

BetBugs edges

Compare BetBugs' chances with the market's.

Positive edges · 5

BetBugs probabilities

How likely BetBugs thought each outcome was.

Result4 of 7 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Both teams have similar overall records and the H2H shows a tendency for draws, making a stalemate the most likely single outcome.
- H2H last 5: 2 draws, 2 away wins, 1 home win
- Home form: 1W 1D 1L at home this season, 2 goals scored, 2 conceded
- Away form: 1W 0D 2L away this season, 2 goals scored, 4 conceded
BetBugs · Match WinnerlostDrawEstimated chance34%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
San Carlos has a slight edge in recent H2H and Perez Zeledon's home form is not strong, so the away side or a draw is more probable.
- Away team has won 2 of last 5 H2H meetings
- Home team has only 1 win in last 5 H2H
- Away team's away record: 1W 0D 2L, but home team's home record is modest
BetBugs · Double ChancewonDraw or AD San CarlosEstimated chance62%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Both teams rarely lead at halftime, so a draw at the break is the most probable outcome.
- Home team led at halftime in only 7% of matches
- Away team led at halftime in 13% of matches
- Both teams have high draw rates at halftime in recent matches
BetBugs · First Half WinnerlostDrawEstimated chance55%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
With both teams evenly matched, the second half could also end level, though confidence is low due to limited data.
- No direct second-half result data available
- Overall match draw probability is 34%
- Second-half scoring is expected but winner is uncertain
BetBugs · Second Half WinnerwonDrawEstimated chance40%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
A draw at both halftime and fulltime is a plausible but less likely scenario given the teams' tendencies.
- First half draw probability estimated at 55%
- Full time draw probability estimated at 34%
- Combined probability lower due to dependence
BetBugs · Ht Ft DoublelostDraw/DrawEstimated chance22%
Signal quality High · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Given the low first-half lead rates and overall balance, it is very unlikely either team wins both halves.
- Neither team has shown dominance to win both halves
- Home team's first half lead rate is only 7%
- Away team's first half lead rate is 13%
BetBugs · Win Both HalveswonNoEstimated chance85%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
San Carlos is slightly more likely to lead at halftime, and a draw is also probable, so the double chance covers most scenarios.
- Away team has slightly higher first half lead rate (13% vs 7%)
- Draw is most likely first half outcome
- Combined probability of draw or away lead
BetBugs · Double Chance First HalfwonDraw or AD San CarlosEstimated chance60%

Goals3 of 5 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Both teams have low scoring averages and the H2H meetings have been relatively low-scoring, supporting under 2.5 goals.
- Home team averages 1.0 goals scored and 1.8 conceded overall
- Away team averages 0.9 goals scored and 1.4 conceded overall
- Combined average goals in H2H last 5: 2.4
BetBugs · Goals Over/UnderwonUnder 2.5Estimated chance58%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Both teams have struggled to score consistently, and the H2H shows a majority of matches where at least one team failed to score.
- Home team failed to score in 3 of last 5 matches
- Away team failed to score in 2 of last 5 matches
- H2H last 5: both teams scored in only 2 matches
BetBugs · Both Teams to ScorewonNoEstimated chance55%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Both teams have low first-half scoring rates, making a goalless first half likely.
- Home team averages 0.4 first half goals scored
- Away team averages 0.4 first half goals scored
- Home team averages 0.6 first half goals conceded, away team 0.6
BetBugs · 1st Half GoalslostUnder 0.5 goals in 1st halfEstimated chance60%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Given the low first-half scoring, goals are more likely to occur in the second half as teams open up.
- Home team's recent matches show goals often come after halftime
- Away team's recent matches also show second-half goals
- Combined second-half scoring tendency from recent form
BetBugs · Goals Over Under Second HalflostOver 0.5Estimated chance65%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Both teams rarely score in the first half, so both teams scoring in the first half is unlikely.
- Home team averages 0.4 first half goals scored
- Away team averages 0.4 first half goals scored
- Combined first half scoring is low
BetBugs · Both Teams Score First HalfwonNoEstimated chance70%

Markets to Avoid

High-risk markets where price or context leaves too little cushion.

Implied 67% leaves no cushion vs our 62% estimate; price already reflects the directional read.

Head-to-Head

3W · 1D · 1W

D1-1San CarlosvPerez ZeledonApr 25, 2026PRI

L3-1Perez ZeledonvSan CarlosJan 13, 2026PRI

W1-3Perez ZeledonvSan CarlosOct 19, 2025PRI

W0-1San CarlosvPerez ZeledonSep 2, 2025PRI

W0-2San CarlosvPerez ZeledonApr 5, 2025PRI

Municipal Perez Zeledon: 2 clean sheets2.6 goals/game avg

League Table

Primera División 2026/2027

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF-GA	Pts	Form
7	Municipal Perez Zeledon	7	2	2	3	6-10	8	WDLLD
6	AD San Carlos	7	3	0	4	5-9	9	WLWWL

1pt gap between teams

Recent Form