NEC Nijmegen2Fortuna Sittard2

HT 1–1Sun 18 Oct 2026, 18:00 Predictions graded

Predictions9–660%

Edges3–443%

PossPossession 74%–26%ShotsShots 24–5On targetOn target 7–3CornersCorners 13–0

Quick Take

Pre-match view

Context last updated 14 Oct 2026, 18:55 · Europe/Bucharest

NEC have not won at home in the league and face Fortuna three days after a Europa League tie, while Fortuna are unbeaten away.

The draw or a Fortuna win looks the likelier outcome, and 2.40 for Fortuna to avoid defeat offers something, as do 4.75 on a Fortuna win, 2.70 on a level first half, 4.00 on no first-half goal, 2.90 on under 2.5 goals and 1.25 on not both teams scoring before the break. NEC's 1.53 win price asks more than their form supports.

Context

NEC's preparation is shaped by a home Europa League tie against Levski Sofia on Thursday 15 October, three days before this game. Dick Schreuder's side are winless in six and still without a point in Europe, so the league fixture arrives inside a compressed week that can influence selection and intensity. Fortuna, by contrast, had no competitive midweek match and used the break for a friendly. The scheduling gap is real but not decisive: NEC are at home for both games and may still field a strong side depending on how the European tie develops.
- NEC Nijmegen host Levski Sofia in the Europa League on Thursday 15 October.
- NEC have gone six matches without a win, their last victory coming at the end of August.
- NEC lost 5-0 away to Juventus in their previous Europa League match.
ConfirmedSources checked 14 Oct 2026, 18:53 · Europe/Bucharest
Schreuder is without Bram Nuytinck, Philippe Sandler and Emre Mor, thinning his defensive and attacking options across a week that includes this fixture. Mitchel Bakker, Adam Tahaui and Isak Hansen-Aarøen were left out of the Europa League squad, so they are fresh and eligible for the league game, while Ayodele Thomas is on an individual programme after a disciplinary omission at Ajax. Because the injury list applies to the Thursday European tie, the exact availability for Sunday is not yet settled. The effect on the starting XI is therefore likely but not certain, and Fortuna could face a rotated NEC.
- Bram Nuytinck, Philippe Sandler and Emre Mor are unavailable through injury.
- Mitchel Bakker, Adam Tahaui and Isak Hansen-Aarøen are not registered for the Europa League.
- Ayodele Thomas missed the Ajax match for disciplinary reasons and is following an individual programme.
ConfirmedSources checked 14 Oct 2026, 18:53 · Europe/Bucharest
Fortuna's most recent league meeting with NEC, a 3-2 away win, says more about the fixture's character than about current form. NEC led through Tjaronn Chery before second-half goals from Iván Márquez, Mohamed Ihattaren and Justin Hubner turned it around, with Bryan Linssen replying in stoppage time. The comeback underlines how quickly this matchup can swing and gives Fortuna recent evidence that they can win in Nijmegen. It is one result from a previous squad and season, so it belongs as context rather than a forecast.
- Fortuna Sittard won 3-2 away to NEC in the clubs' most recent league meeting.
- NEC led through Tjaronn Chery in the 19th minute before Iván Márquez equalised.
- Mohamed Ihattaren and Justin Hubner scored for Fortuna after the break, and Bryan Linssen pulled one back in stoppage time.
ConfirmedSources checked 14 Oct 2026, 18:53 · Europe/BucharestForza Footballforzafootball.com · 10 May 2026
The fixture is full of familiar faces. Perr Schuurs and Kaj Sierhuis now play for NEC after spells at Fortuna, while Rodrigo Guth, Iván Márquez and Mark Branderhorst moved from NEC to Fortuna. Guth and Branderhorst are defensive regulars who know the opposition's patterns, and any of these players facing a former club adds a personal edge to selection and duels. Whether they start is a separate question, since the reunion itself does not establish a playing advantage either way.
- Perr Schuurs and Kaj Sierhuis are NEC players who previously played for Fortuna Sittard.
- Rodrigo Guth, Iván Márquez and Mark Branderhorst are Fortuna players who previously played for NEC.
ReportedSources checked 14 Oct 2026, 18:53 · Europe/Bucharest

BetBugs edges

Compare BetBugs' chances with the market's.

Positive edges · 6

BetBugs probabilities

How likely BetBugs thought each outcome was.

Result3 of 5 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Market price 4.75
The read
Fortuna have been strong on their travels and won in Nijmegen last season, while NEC are short-handed and had a short week.
- Fortuna are unbeaten away in the league: 3 wins, 1 draw, 9 scored, 6 conceded
- Fortuna won the most recent meeting 3-2 at NEC
- NEC are without Nuytinck, Sandler and Mor, and had a midweek European game
BetBugs · Match WinnerlostFortuna SittardEstimated chance43%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Market price 2.70
The read
First halves are usually tighter and the break arrives level in a large share of matches.
- NEC first-half total averages 1.67 goals
- Fortuna first-half total averages 1.45 goals
- NEC were level at half-time in most of their recent draws
BetBugs · First Half WinnerwonDrawEstimated chance44%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Second halves have been tight in several of both teams' games, so a level half is plausible.
- NEC second-half total averages 1.59 goals
- Fortuna second-half total averages 2.0 goals
- NEC were level after the break in a number of recent games
BetBugs · Second Half WinnerwonDrawEstimated chance37%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
NEC have not won at home in the league this season and have only two wins in total, while Fortuna have taken three wins and a draw on their travels. Fortuna have been strong on their travels and won in Nijmegen last season, while NEC are short-handed and had a short week.
- NEC overall: 2 wins, 4 draws, 6 losses in 12 competitive matches, 8 scored, 11 conceded
- NEC league home record: 0 wins, 2 draws, 2 losses, 5 scored, 8 conceded in 4
- Fortuna are unbeaten away in the league: 3 wins, 1 draw, 9 scored, 6 conceded
- Fortuna won the most recent meeting 3-2 at NEC
BetBugs · Double ChancelostNEC Nijmegen or Fortuna SittardEstimated chance73%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
First halves are usually tighter and the break arrives level in a large share of matches. Fortuna have the better first-half numbers at both ends and have started away games brightly.
- NEC first-half total averages 1.67 goals
- Fortuna first-half total averages 1.45 goals
- Fortuna first half: 0.89 scored, 0.56 conceded per game
- NEC first half: 0.5 scored, 1.17 conceded per game
BetBugs · Double Chance First HalfwonDraw or Fortuna SittardEstimated chance76%

Goals4 of 7 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Both teams concede regularly and their recent matches have produced goals at both ends.
- NEC competitive matches: 14 scored, 25 conceded, both scored in 8 of 12
- Fortuna competitive matches: 14 scored, 17 conceded, both scored in 6 of 9
- NEC home games average 3.4 goals and Fortuna away games average 3.4
BetBugs · Goals Over/UnderwonOver 2.5Estimated chance63%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Market price 1.44
The read
Both sides have scored and conceded in most of their matches, so both finding the net is likely.
- NEC have seen both teams score in 8 of 12, including all 5 home games
- Fortuna have seen both teams score in 6 of 9
- NEC concede 2.08 per game and Fortuna concede 1.89
BetBugs · Both Teams to ScorewonYesEstimated chance64%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
NEC have struggled to score more than once at home through the season.
- NEC home: 5 goals in 5 games, 1.2 per game
- NEC scored one or fewer in 4 of their 5 home matches
- Fortuna conceding 1.6 per away game
BetBugs · Home Goals TotallostNEC Nijmegen under 1.5Estimated chance69%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Fortuna's away returns are uneven and they could be held to one goal or fewer.
- Fortuna's away-block metrics show only 4 goals scored across 5 matches
- Fortuna have scored one or fewer in half of their recent away games
- NEC kept one clean sheet in 12
BetBugs · Away Goals TotallostFortuna Sittard under 1.5Estimated chance52%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Both teams concede before the break regularly, so a first-half goal is likely.
- NEC first-half average total 1.67 goals
- Fortuna first-half average total 1.45 goals
- NEC conceded a first-half goal in over half their matches
BetBugs · 1st Half GoalswonOver 0.5 goals in 1st halfEstimated chance72%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Market price 1.25
The read
NEC rarely score before the break, making two first-half goals unlikely.
- NEC first-half goals for average 0.5 per game
- Fortuna first-half goals against average 0.56 per game
- NEC scored before half-time in only a few of their recent matches
BetBugs · Both Teams Score First HalflostNoEstimated chance82%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Second halves involving these teams have averaged close to two goals.
- NEC second-half average total 1.59 goals
- Fortuna second-half average total 2.0 goals
- Fortuna conceded four second-half goals against Ajax
BetBugs · Goals Over Under Second HalfwonOver 1.5Estimated chance56%

Match stats2 of 3 landed

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Combined corner counts sit close to the line, with Fortuna's away games giving up many corners.
- NEC average 4.25 corners, opponents 3.42
- Fortuna average 2.78 corners, opponents 7.22
- NEC home games average around 9 corners total
BetBugs · Corners Over/UnderwonOver 7.5Estimated chance57%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Both defences allow plenty of shots on target, which points to a combined total near or above the line.
- NEC shots on target 3.83, opponents 5.08
- Fortuna shots on target 4.33, opponents 6.0
- NEC concede 5.08 shots on target per game and Fortuna 6.0
BetBugs · Shots on Target Over/UnderwonOver 8.5Estimated chance52%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Both teams pick up bookings regularly, giving around three cards a game between them.
- NEC average 1.58 yellows, opponents 1.58
- Fortuna average 1.86 yellows, opponents 1.29
- Fortuna have had one red card in nine matches
BetBugs · Cards Over/UnderlostOver 2.5Estimated chance65%