Mlada Boleslav1Teplice0

HT 1–0Sat 17 Oct 2026, 13:00 Predictions graded

Predictions9–564%

Edges4–267%

PossPossession 52%–48%ShotsShots 9–20On targetOn target 3–2CornersCorners 3–8

Quick Take

Pre-match view

Context last updated 13 Oct 2026, 18:01 · Europe/Bucharest

Mlada Boleslav have won every home league game this season, but Teplice have won three of four away and took the last meeting at this ground 2-0.

Mlada Boleslav are the likelier winners, though 1.95 is not a price to back. The one reviewed price worth taking is both teams to score — No at 2.05.

Context

Mladá Boleslav arrived at this fixture as the division's overachievers: third after nine rounds with a game in hand, a summer without transfer spending and a squad built without foreign players. That profile explains why the home side is trusted despite a smaller budget than the clubs around it, and it gives the game a clear contrast with a Teplice team that has also started well. The caveat is momentum: a 0-3 league defeat at Viktoria Plzeň on 10 October and a rearranged midweek league game before this one mean the league position reflects the season's opening months more than current form.
- Mladá Boleslav were third after nine Czech Liga rounds with a game in hand, without summer transfer spending.
- The squad contains no foreign players.
ReportedSources checked 13 Oct 2026, 17:59 · Europe/Bucharest
Mladá Boleslav's rearranged league fixture at Bohemians 1905 is listed for Wednesday 14 October, three days after their trip to Viktoria Plzeň and three before this game, so the squad is asked to play three league matches in eight days. That can push a coach towards rotation or load management, and Teplice, whose previous league game was on 11 October, have the calmer week into the fixture. The date rests on the rearranged schedule rather than a settled weekend slot, and Mladá Boleslav's rotation choices are not visible in advance.
- Mladá Boleslav's rearranged league game at Bohemians 1905 is listed for 14 October 2026.
- Mladá Boleslav's league games around it are at Viktoria Plzeň on 10 October and at home to Teplice on 17 October.
ReportedSources checked 13 Oct 2026, 17:59 · Europe/Bucharest
Teplice's 2-0 win at this ground on 23 May 2026 is the most recent meeting, with Idris Hopi and Matyáš Kozák scoring late in a relegation-round fixture watched by 912 people. The previous meeting, a 3-2 Mladá Boleslav win at Teplice in September 2025, shows recent games between the clubs have produced goals and away results. The end-of-season context of the May match limits how much it forecasts a mid-October league game, but Mladá Boleslav cannot point to comfortable control of this opponent at home.
- Teplice won 2-0 at Mladá Boleslav on 23 May 2026 in the relegation round, Idris Hopi scoring on 64 minutes and Matyáš Kozák on 90+4, before 912 spectators at Lokotrans Aréna.
- Mladá Boleslav won 3-2 at Teplice on 13 September 2025, Matyáš Vojta scoring twice and Michal Ševčík once, with Matej Pulkrab and John Auta scoring for Teplice.
ConfirmedSources checked 13 Oct 2026, 17:59 · Europe/BucharestBBC Sportwww.bbc.com · 23 May 2026BBC Sportwww.bbc.com · 13 Sep 2025
Donát, 25, committed to a new long-term contract on 13 October, four days before kick-off. The deal keeps a defender from the first-team squad at the club and fits Mladá Boleslav's pattern of retaining the players behind their strong start rather than rebuilding. It is an off-field signal, not a change to who is available, so it should be read as club context around the fixture rather than a factor in the result.
- Denis Donát, a 25-year-old defender, agreed a new long-term contract with Mladá Boleslav on 13 October 2026.
- D. Donát started 2 of the 5 recent team fixtures with available lineups.
ConfirmedSources checked 13 Oct 2026, 17:59 · Europe/Bucharest

BetBugs edges

Compare BetBugs' chances with the market's.

Positive edges · 1

Other edges · 5

The published chance does not exceed the market's implied chance.

1st Half GoalswonUncertainty band: Strong lean

Over 0.5 goals in 1st half

1.29fair 1.32

BetBugs 76% · Market 77.5%

−1.5ppshort

Both teams score regularly before the break, so a first-half goal is likely.

Both Teams Score First HalfwonUncertainty band: Strong lean

No

1.20fair 1.39

BetBugs 72% · Market 83.3%

−11.3ppshort

Mlada Boleslav rarely concede before the break, making both teams scoring early unlikely.

Match WinnerwonUncertainty band: Near coin-flip

Mlada Boleslav

1.95fair 2.17

BetBugs 46% · Market 51.3%

−5.3ppshort

Mlada Boleslav have won every home league game while barely conceding, which makes them the likeliest winner.

BetBugs probabilities

How likely BetBugs thought each outcome was.

Result2 of 4 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Market price 1.95
The read
Mlada Boleslav have won every home league game while barely conceding, which makes them the likeliest winner.
- League home record 4-0-0 with 10 scored and 1 conceded
- Overall 7-2-2, scoring 2.18 per game
- Teplice have won 3 of 4 away league games
BetBugs · Match WinnerwonMlada BoleslavEstimated chance46%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Market price 2.25
The read
Teplice concede relatively few early goals and often reach the break level.
- Mlada Boleslav first-half 1.27 for, 0.55 against
- Teplice first-half 0.83 for, 0.83 against
- Teplice have had goalless first halves in 3 of their last 6
BetBugs · First Half WinnerlostDrawEstimated chance42%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Mlada Boleslav keep a solid second-half defensive record and hold a slight edge after the break.
- Mlada Boleslav second-half 0.91 for, 0.55 against
- Teplice second-half 1.25 for, 0.58 against
- Mlada Boleslav concede 0.55 second-half goals per game
BetBugs · Second Half WinnerlostMlada BoleslavEstimated chance39%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Mlada Boleslav's first-half scoring and their home record point to them leading at the break. Teplice concede relatively few early goals and often reach the break level.
- Mlada Boleslav 1.27 first-half goals for, 0.55 against
- 1.5 first-half goals per home game with none conceded
- Mlada Boleslav first-half 1.27 for, 0.55 against
- Teplice first-half 0.83 for, 0.83 against
BetBugs · Double Chance First HalfwonMlada Boleslav or DrawEstimated chance82%

Goals3 of 6 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Market price 1.70
The read
Both teams average more than two goals scored per game, pointing to three or more in the match.
- Mlada Boleslav 2.18 scored and 1.09 conceded per game
- Teplice 2.08 scored and 1.42 conceded per game
- Combined scoring average 4.26 goals per game
BetBugs · Goals Over/UnderlostOver 2.5Estimated chance54%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Market price 2.05
The read
Mlada Boleslav's home record shows few matches where both sides score.
- Mlada Boleslav home record 10-1 with 3 clean sheets
- Both teams scored in only 4 of 11 Mlada Boleslav games
- Teplice failed to score in 2 of 12
BetBugs · Both Teams to ScorewonNoEstimated chance55%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Mlada Boleslav average more than two goals in front of their own crowd.
- Mlada Boleslav score 2.18 per game overall
- 2.5 per game across four home league games, 10 goals
- Scored twice or more in 4 of their last 6
BetBugs · Home Goals TotallostMlada Boleslav over 1.5Estimated chance62%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Market price 1.29
The read
Both teams score regularly before the break, so a first-half goal is likely.
- Mlada Boleslav first-half goals for 1.27 per game
- Teplice first-half goals for 0.83 per game
- Mlada Boleslav 1.5 first-half goals per home game
BetBugs · 1st Half GoalswonOver 0.5 goals in 1st halfEstimated chance76%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Market price 1.20
The read
Mlada Boleslav rarely concede before the break, making both teams scoring early unlikely.
- Mlada Boleslav concede no first-half goals in four home league games
- Teplice failed to score first-half in 3 of their last 6
- Teplice average 0.83 first-half goals
BetBugs · Both Teams Score First HalfwonNoEstimated chance72%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Both teams score in the second half, so two or more goals after the break is plausible.
- Mlada Boleslav second-half 0.91 for, 0.55 against
- Teplice second-half 1.25 for, 0.58 against
- Combined second-half average 2.16 goals
BetBugs · Goals Over Under Second HalflostOver 1.5Estimated chance52%

Match stats4 of 4 landed

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Both teams generate around six corners a game and Teplice take even more away, pointing above the line.
- Mlada Boleslav 5.89 corners per game, Teplice 5.78
- Teplice take 7.0 corners per away game
- Mlada Boleslav home opponents take 6.25 corners
BetBugs · Corners Over/UnderwonOver 10.5Estimated chance56%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Both teams concede a high volume of shots, so the match total should exceed the line.
- Mlada Boleslav 12.67 shots for, 17.78 against
- Teplice 15.67 for, 15.22 against
- Mlada Boleslav home opponents average 18.5 shots
BetBugs · Shots Over/UnderwonOver 28.5Estimated chance60%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Both teams put around four to five shots on target, keeping the combined figure near or below the line.
- Mlada Boleslav 5.11 on target, Teplice 4.2
- Mlada Boleslav home 5.5, Teplice away 3.75
- Combined average around 9
BetBugs · Shots on Target Over/UnderwonUnder 9.5Estimated chance55%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Both teams and their opponents pick up bookings at a rate that sits just above the line.
- Mlada Boleslav 1.44 yellow cards, opponents 2.22
- Teplice 1.9 yellow, opponents 1.8
- Combined card average about 3.7
BetBugs · Cards Over/UnderwonOver 3.5Estimated chance52%