Rapid Vienna3WSG Tirol0

HT 1–0Fri 18 Sept 2026, 17:30 Predictions graded

Predictions6–460%

Edges5–271%

PossPossession 57%–43%ShotsShots 17–5On targetOn target 7–1CornersCorners 6–3

Quick Take

Pre-match view

Context last updated 15 Sep 2026, 00:34 · Europe/Bucharest

Rapid Vienna are strong favourites at home, but the odds on the match winner, double chance, and over 2.5 goals offer no value.

The only positive edge is over 1.5 first-half goals at 1.91, where the model sees a 60% chance versus the implied 52.4%.

Context

Rapid Vienna are second in the Bundesliga with 15 points from six games and have won all three home matches this season.
Their home scoring is exceptional: 12 goals in three games, including an 8-0 win over Grazer AK on 16 August and a 3-1 win over Sturm Graz on 30 August. They also lead at half-time in 80% of matches overall, so WSG Tirol may need to defend well from the start. However, WSG Tirol have won their last two away league games without conceding, so this is not a guaranteed pattern.
- Rapid Vienna have scored 12 goals in 3 home league games this season.
- They beat Grazer AK 8-0 at home on 16 August 2026.
- They lead at half-time in 80% of matches this season.
WSG Tirol are fifth in the Bundesliga with 8 points from six games and have a positive away record of two wins and one loss.
They won 1-0 at Austria Vienna on 2 September and 4-0 at Austria Lustenau on 28 August, keeping clean sheets in both. That suggests they can defend well away from home, but Rapid Vienna's home attack is much stronger than those opponents, so this test is harder.
- WSG Tirol won 1-0 at Austria Vienna on 2 September 2026.
- They won 4-0 at Austria Lustenau on 28 August 2026.
- Their away record is 2 wins and 1 loss in 3 games.
Rapid Vienna used a 4-2-3-1 in their 3-0 win at Wolfsberg on 12 September.
That structure provides the current baseline for how Rapid can build and press against WSG Tirol. It is a recent anchor, not confirmation of Friday's selection.
- Rapid were listed in a 4-2-3-1 formation at Wolfsberg on 12 September.
- Rapid won that Bundesliga match 3-0.
ConfirmedSources checked 15 Sep 2026, 00:33 · Europe/BucharestSky Sport lineup: Wolfsberg vs Rapid Wiensport.sky.de · 12 Sep 2026
The teams have met five times in the Bundesliga since December 2023.
Rapid Vienna won 4-1 at home on 14 September 2025 and 2-0 at home on 18 August 2024, and the other three meetings were draws or a Rapid away win. That consistent record suggests Rapid know how to handle WSG Tirol, but past results do not guarantee the same outcome this season.
- Rapid Vienna beat WSG Tirol 4-1 at home on 14 September 2025.
- Rapid Vienna beat WSG Tirol 2-0 at home on 18 August 2024.
- Rapid Vienna are unbeaten in the last 5 meetings (3 wins, 2 draws).

BetBugs edges

Compare BetBugs' chances with the market's.

Positive edges · 1

Other edges · 6

The published chance does not exceed the market's implied chance.

Match WinnerwonUncertainty band: Strong lean

Rapid Vienna

1.33fair 1.39

BetBugs 72% · Market 75.2%

0.0ppshort

Rapid's perfect home record and WSG's poor away form support the home win, but the odds already reflect that dominance.

Double ChancewonUncertainty band: Strong lean

Rapid Vienna or Draw

1.10fair 1.11

BetBugs 90% · Market 90.9%

0.0ppshort

The double chance is nearly a lock given Rapid's home strength, but the odds offer no value.

1 St Half ResultwonUncertainty band: Slight lean

Rapid Vienna

1.67fair 1.82

BetBugs 55% · Market 59.9%

0.0ppshort

Rapid's tendency to lead at half-time is strong, but the odds already price that likelihood.

HT/FTwonUncertainty band: Near coin-flip

Rapid Vienna at half-time / Rapid Vienna at full-time

1.85fair 2.00

BetBugs 50% · Market 54%

0.0ppshort

Rapid often lead at half-time and win, but the odds are slightly short of our estimate.

Goals Over/UnderwonUncertainty band: Strong lean

Over 2.5

1.36fair 1.54

BetBugs 65% · Market 73.5%

0.0ppshort

Both teams have high scoring averages, but the odds are heavily juiced toward Over, leaving no value despite the predictor's lean.

BetBugs probabilities

How likely BetBugs thought each outcome was.

Result4 of 4 landed

Signal quality High · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Rapid Vienna's superior league position, perfect home form, and strong H2H record give them a clear edge, supported by motivation to keep pace with LASK at the top.
- Rapid Vienna are 2nd with 15 points from 6 matches (5W-0D-1L), while WSG Tirol are 5th with 8 points (2W-2D-2L).
- Rapid Vienna have a perfect home record this season: 3 wins, 12 goals scored, 1 conceded.
- WSG Tirol have not won at home this season (0W-2D-1L) and have lost 2 of their last 3 away matches.
- In the last 5 H2H meetings, Rapid Vienna won 2, drew 2, lost 1, including a 4-1 home win in September 2025.
BetBugs · Match WinnerwonRapid ViennaEstimated chance72%
Signal quality High · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Given Rapid Vienna's strong home form and WSG Tirol's inconsistent away results, the double chance heavily favors the home side avoiding defeat.
- Rapid Vienna have not lost at home this season (3W-0D-0L).
- WSG Tirol have only 1 win in their last 5 away matches across all competitions.
- Rapid Vienna have lost only once in their last 15 matches overall.
BetBugs · Double ChancewonRapid Vienna or DrawEstimated chance90%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Rapid Vienna's tendency to start strongly and WSG Tirol's occasional slow starts give the home side an edge in the first half.
- Rapid Vienna have led at half-time in 80% of their last 15 matches.
- WSG Tirol have trailed at half-time in 33% of their last 15 matches.
- Rapid Vienna scored 2 first-half goals in their last home match against WSG Tirol (4-1 win).
BetBugs · First Half WinnerwonRapid ViennaEstimated chance55%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Rapid Vienna's pattern of leading at half-time and converting to full-time wins, especially at home, supports the HT/FT double.
- Rapid Vienna have led at half-time and won the match in 5 of their last 6 wins.
- WSG Tirol have lost 2 of their last 3 away matches, both after trailing at half-time.
- Rapid Vienna have won all 3 home matches this season, leading at half-time in 2 of them.
BetBugs · Ht Ft DoublewonRapid Vienna/Rapid ViennaEstimated chance50%

Goals1 of 3 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Both teams have high scoring averages, and Rapid Vienna's home games have been particularly high-scoring, making over 2.5 goals likely.
- Rapid Vienna average 3.3 goals scored per match in their last 15 matches.
- WSG Tirol average 2.6 goals scored per match in their last 15 matches.
- Rapid Vienna's home matches this season have averaged 4.3 total goals (12 scored, 1 conceded in 3 games).
- WSG Tirol's away matches this season have averaged 3.0 total goals (6 scored, 3 conceded in 3 games).
BetBugs · Goals Over/UnderwonOver 2.5Estimated chance65%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
WSG Tirol have shown they can score away from home, and Rapid Vienna's defense has not kept many clean sheets recently, so both teams scoring is plausible.
- WSG Tirol have scored in 5 of their last 6 matches.
- Rapid Vienna have conceded in 4 of their last 6 matches.
- WSG Tirol have scored in all 3 away matches this season (6 goals total).
BetBugs · Both Teams to ScorelostYesEstimated chance58%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Both teams tend to score in the first half, and Rapid Vienna's strong first-half performances suggest an early goal is likely.
- Rapid Vienna average 1.7 first-half goals per match in their last 15 matches.
- WSG Tirol average 1.3 first-half goals per match in their last 15 matches.
- Rapid Vienna have led at half-time in 80% of their last 15 matches.
BetBugs · 1st Half GoalslostOver 1.5 goals in 1st halfEstimated chance60%

Match stats1 of 3 landed

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Both teams generate a moderate number of corners, and their combined average suggests a total over 9.5 corners is possible.
- Rapid Vienna average 5.5 corners per match in their last 15 matches.
- WSG Tirol average 5.3 corners per match in their last 15 matches.
- Combined average corners per match for both teams is 10.8.
BetBugs · Corners Over/UnderlostOver 9.5Estimated chance55%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Rapid Vienna's high shot volume and WSG Tirol's moderate contribution make over 8.5 shots on target a reasonable expectation.
- Rapid Vienna average 7.0 shots on target per match in their last 15 matches.
- WSG Tirol average 3.8 shots on target per match in their last 15 matches.
- Combined average shots on target per match is 10.8.
BetBugs · Shots on Target Over/UnderlostOver 8.5Estimated chance55%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
The combined average of yellow cards is close to 3.5, and the competitive nature of the match could push the total over.
- Rapid Vienna average 1.5 yellow cards per match in their last 15 matches.
- WSG Tirol average 1.8 yellow cards per match in their last 15 matches.
- Combined average yellow cards per match is 3.3.
BetBugs · Cards Over/UnderwonOver 3.5Estimated chance55%