Burnley1Wolves2

HT 1–1Fri 16 Oct 2026, 19:00 Predictions graded

Predictions10–567%

Edges5–0100%

PossPossession 47%–53%ShotsShots 15–20On targetOn target 4–8CornersCorners 3–6

Quick Take

Pre-match view

Context last updated 12 Oct 2026, 18:38 · Europe/Bucharest

Wolves travel to Turf Moor fifth, against a Burnley side with a single league win, but the visitors are missing Raúl Jiménez and have scored exactly one goal in each of their last four games.

A narrow Wolves win or a low-scoring draw looks the likeliest outcome. No reviewed price is worthwhile: Wolves at 2.10, over 2.5 goals at 1.65, both teams to score at 1.60 and a first-half goal at 1.22 all ask more than the record supports.

Context

Wolves' injury bulletin on 9 October said Raúl Jiménez's knee problem, picked up against Everton in September, is taking longer to heal than expected and put him back in a temporary knee brace with no return date. He is not expected to play again this month, so the trip to Burnley is likely to go ahead without Wolves' senior centre-forward. Wolves were criticised for a lack of cutting edge in the 1-0 defeat at Middlesbrough, and the same makeshift attack may have to carry the load at Turf Moor. Reports also list Fer López and Jordan James as doubts, though those are less clear-cut than Jiménez's absence.
- Wolves' 9 October injury update said Raúl Jiménez's recovery from a knee injury is taking longer than first anticipated, with no return date confirmed.
- The striker is back in a temporary knee brace and is not expected back this month.
- The same update listed Fer López and Jordan James as doubts and said Yerson Mosquera is back in training.
ConfirmedSources checked 12 Oct 2026, 18:36 · Europe/Bucharest
Burnley had taken three points from their opening nine Championship games and Hayen was under heavy scrutiny before the international break. A 4-0 win at Watford on 10 October ended a league winless run dating back to February and lifted some of that pressure, but Hayen himself said one result 'is not a lot to claim'. The mood around the club and the confidence of the side going into a home game against a promotion-chasing Wolves team is different from a week ago. One emphatic win over a struggling Watford side is still a thin basis for expecting a sustained revival.
- Burnley beat Watford 4-0 on 10 October 2026, their first league win of the season and first in the league since February.
- The result was Nicky Hayen's first league win as Burnley head coach; he said afterwards: 'It's not that I can claim a lot of things because it's just one win.'
ConfirmedSources checked 12 Oct 2026, 18:36 · Europe/Bucharest
Local team news for Burnley's 13 October home game against Charlton listed 13 players ruled out and three more as fitness doubts, the same 13-out figure carried into the previous match at Watford. With a Tuesday-to-Friday turnaround before Wolves visit Turf Moor, the squad is being stretched across two quick games. That reduces Hayen's room to rotate and may force him to lean on the group that won at Vicarage Road. The list is a snapshot before the midweek game and could change, but the volume of absences has been consistent for more than a week.
- Burnley v Charlton Athletic team news published 12 October listed 13 players ruled out and three fitness doubts.
- The pre-Watford team news on 7 October also listed 13 ruled out, indicating a sustained absentee list rather than a one-off.
ReportedSources checked 12 Oct 2026, 18:36 · Europe/Bucharest
Peixoto said on 9 October that Krejčí 'wanted to go' during the recent window and confirmed Toti Gomes would start ahead of him after a strong Black Country derby performance. Krejčí has trained well since but the manager tied a return to 'the right commitment', leaving the centre-back's place in the side unclear. With Wolves facing three games in a week, the centre of defence is one area where Peixoto could rotate. Any reappearance at Burnley would follow a public challenge from his manager rather than a clear run of form.
- Cesar Peixoto on 9 October: Krejčí 'wanted to go' and has lost his place to Toti Gomes amid concerns over his commitment.
- Peixoto said Krejčí has trained well but Toti Gomes will play after a good performance in the Black Country derby.
ConfirmedSources checked 12 Oct 2026, 18:36 · Europe/Bucharest

BetBugs edges

Compare BetBugs' chances with the market's.

Positive edges · 1

Other edges · 4

The published chance does not exceed the market's implied chance.

1st Half GoalswonUncertainty band: Lean

Over 0.5 goals in 1st half

1.22fair 1.59

BetBugs 63% · Market 82%

−19.0ppshort

Wolves usually score before half-time and Burnley concede regularly, so a first-half goal is likely.

Both Teams to ScorewonUncertainty band: Slight lean

Yes

1.60fair 1.75

BetBugs 57% · Market 62.5%

−5.5ppshort

Burnley score in nearly every game but rarely keep clean sheets, so both teams finding the net looks likely.

Goals Over/UnderwonUncertainty band: Slight lean

Over 2.5

1.65fair 1.89

BetBugs 53% · Market 60.6%

−7.6ppshort

Burnley are involved in high-scoring games and concede regularly, so three or more goals is a slight favourite.

Match WinnerwonUncertainty band: Near coin-flip

Wolves

2.10fair 2.33

BetBugs 43% · Market 47.6%

−4.6ppshort

Wolves are much higher in the table, have a positive goal difference and meet a Burnley side without a home win.

BetBugs probabilities

How likely BetBugs thought each outcome was.

Result4 of 4 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Market price 2.10
The read
Wolves are much higher in the table, have a positive goal difference and meet a Burnley side without a home win.
- Wolves are 5th with 4 wins, 2 draws and 2 losses from 8 league games
- Wolves have won 2, drawn 1 and lost 2 of their 5 away league games
- Burnley are 22nd and have 0 wins in 4 home league games
- Wolves' two league defeats came away at West Ham and Middlesbrough, both promotion rivals
BetBugs · Match WinnerwonWolvesEstimated chance43%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Market price 2.38
The read
Wolves have gone in level at half-time in each of their last four games and Burnley start home matches cautiously.
- Burnley average 0.25 first-half goals at home and 0.5 against
- Wolves average 0.86 first-half goals away and 0.57 against
- Wolves were level at half-time in each of their last four competitive games
- Burnley's home first halves have produced few goals
BetBugs · First Half WinnerwonDrawEstimated chance43%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Burnley's strong draw habit at home and Wolves' modest away draw count make a tight shared result realistic. Wolves are much higher in the table, have a positive goal difference and meet a Burnley side without a home win.
- Burnley have drawn 4 of 9 league games, including 3 of 4 at home
- Wolves have drawn 1 of their 5 away league games
- Wolves are 5th with 4 wins, 2 draws and 2 losses from 8 league games
- Wolves have won 2, drawn 1 and lost 2 of their 5 away league games
BetBugs · Double ChancewonDraw or WolvesEstimated chance73%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Wolves have gone in level at half-time in each of their last four games and Burnley start home matches cautiously. Wolves start games on the front foot, while Burnley rarely score before the break at home.
- Burnley average 0.25 first-half goals at home and 0.5 against
- Wolves average 0.86 first-half goals away and 0.57 against
- Wolves average 1.09 first-half goals and 0.55 against in 11 competitive games
- Wolves average 0.86 first-half goals away
BetBugs · Double Chance First HalfwonDraw or WolvesEstimated chance75%

Goals5 of 7 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Market price 1.65
The read
Burnley are involved in high-scoring games and concede regularly, so three or more goals is a slight favourite.
- Burnley average 1.44 goals for and 1.89 against per league game
- Wolves average 1.82 goals for and 1.09 against per league game
- Burnley have kept 1 clean sheet in 9 league games
- Both teams scored in 8 of Burnley's 9 league games
BetBugs · Goals Over/UnderwonOver 2.5Estimated chance53%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Market price 1.60
The read
Burnley score in nearly every game but rarely keep clean sheets, so both teams finding the net looks likely.
- Both teams scored in 8 of Burnley's 9 league games
- Both teams scored in all 4 of Burnley's home league games
- Burnley have kept 1 clean sheet in 9 league games
- Wolves failed to score in only 3 of 11 competitive games
BetBugs · Both Teams to ScorewonYesEstimated chance57%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Market price 1.22
The read
Wolves usually score before half-time and Burnley concede regularly, so a first-half goal is likely.
- Burnley average 0.78 first-half goals for and 0.89 against
- Wolves average 1.09 first-half goals for and 0.55 against
- Burnley's home first halves average 0.25 goals for and 0.5 against
- Wolves' away first halves average 0.86 goals for and 0.57 against
BetBugs · 1st Half GoalswonOver 0.5 goals in 1st halfEstimated chance63%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Quiet first halves from both sides make it very unlikely that each scores before the break.
- Wolves were 0-0 at half-time in each of their last four competitive games
- Burnley average only 0.25 first-half goals at home
- Wolves allow 0.55 first-half goals per game
- Burnley allow 0.5 first-half goals at home per game
BetBugs · Both Teams Score First HalflostNoEstimated chance83%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Wolves concede little after the break and their recent games have been low-scoring, making fewer than two second-half goals slightly more likely.
- Wolves average 0.55 second-half goals against in 11 competitive games
- Wolves' away second halves average 0.57 scored and 0.71 conceded
- Burnley average 0.67 second-half goals for in 9 league games
- Wolves' last four competitive games each had only one goal overall
BetBugs · Goals Over Under Second HalfwonUnder 1.5Estimated chance51%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Burnley's home goal output is modest and Wolves concede little on the road, so one goal or none is more likely.
- Burnley average 1.25 goals in 4 home league games
- Burnley scored exactly one goal in each of their three most recent home league games listed
- Wolves' away games average only 1.29 goals conceded
- Burnley average 1.44 goals per league game overall
BetBugs · Home Goals TotalwonBurnley under 1.5Estimated chance60%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Wolves have been scoring sparingly in recent games and are missing their senior striker.
- Wolves' away league games average 1.43 goals scored
- Wolves scored one goal or none in four of their last five competitive games
- Wolves' last four competitive games each produced exactly one goal
- Wolves are without striker Raúl Jiménez for the rest of October
BetBugs · Away Goals TotallostWolves under 1.5Estimated chance52%

Match stats1 of 4 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Adding each side's home and away corner figures gives a total just below 10.5.
- Burnley's home games average 4.75 corners and 5.25 against
- Wolves' away games average 5.43 corners and 4.43 against
- Burnley average 4.56 corners and 4.44 against overall
- Wolves' away games average 4.43 corners conceded
BetBugs · Corners Over/UnderwonUnder 10.5Estimated chance57%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Adding the home and away shot figures gives about 25 total, below the line.
- Burnley's home games average 10.75 shots and 13.25 against
- Wolves' away games average 13.14 shots and 12.43 against
- Burnley average 13.78 shots and 14 against overall
- Wolves average 14.45 shots and 11.36 against overall
BetBugs · Shots Over/UnderlostUnder 28.5Estimated chance60%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Home and away figures point to about seven shots on target, below the 8.5 line.
- Burnley's home games average 3.25 shots on target and 3.5 against
- Wolves' away games average 3.14 shots on target and 4.29 against
- Burnley average 4.22 shots on target and 4.89 against overall
- Wolves average 4.18 shots on target and 3.91 against overall
BetBugs · Shots on Target Over/UnderlostUnder 8.5Estimated chance54%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
The two teams' card averages add to around four, just above the 3.5 line.
- Burnley average 2.38 yellow cards and 2.13 against in 8 league games
- Wolves average 1.27 yellow cards and 2.27 against in 11 competitive games
- Burnley's home games average 2.5 yellow cards and 2.0 against
- Wolves' away games average 1.43 yellow cards and 2.14 against
BetBugs · Cards Over/UnderlostOver 3.5Estimated chance52%