Sporting JAX0Birmingham Legion1

HT 0–1Wed 14 Oct 2026, 23:00 Predictions graded

Predictions7–750%

Edges2–340%

Quick Take

Pre-match view

Context last updated 13 Oct 2026, 23:11 · Europe/Bucharest

Sporting JAX and Birmingham replay from 0-0 behind closed doors, with both clubs already out of the playoff race and Birmingham needing a result to avoid last place.

Sporting JAX's home record and their August win in Birmingham give them a narrow edge, though Birmingham have drawn 11 of 26 league games. Three prices hold up: Sporting JAX to win or draw at 1.88, a Sporting JAX win at 3.3, and under 2.5 goals at 2.9.

Context

The game originally kicked off Oct. 10 at Hodges Stadium, but a lightning delay stopped play with Birmingham 1-0 ahead 49 minutes in, and it was later abandoned rather than completed. The replayed fixture restarts from kickoff, so that goal and the 49 minutes already played are wiped and this match effectively begins level. It is also scheduled for a Wednesday night without spectators, removing the home-crowd element Sporting JAX would normally have and adding a midweek game to both clubs' late-season run-in. The available evidence does not explain why the make-up is closed to fans or confirm broadcast arrangements, so the wider practical impact is only partly established.
- Birmingham's Oct. 10 USL Championship match at Sporting JAX was suspended for a lightning delay with Legion leading 1-0 after 49 minutes.
- The same game was abandoned after Sporting JAX trailed in the second half.
- The fixture was rescheduled for Wednesday, Oct. 14 at 7 p.m. ET at Hodges Stadium, to restart from kickoff.
- The make-up will be played behind closed doors.
ConfirmedSources checked 13 Oct 2026, 23:08 · Europe/Bucharest
With neither club able to reach the playoffs, the clearest remaining incentive in the replay is the final table: Birmingham need a result to stay above first-year Sporting JAX and avoid a second successive last-place finish. That context shapes how both sides might approach a midweek, spectator-free game in which pride and end-of-season positioning are the only stakes. The read on the table situation comes from a single local reporter rather than an official league source, so the precise gap between the clubs is not independently established here.
- Both Sporting JAX and Birmingham Legion are already out of playoff contention.
- A result for Birmingham would guarantee the club finishes above the expansion side and avoids consecutive last-place seasons.
ReportedSources checked 13 Oct 2026, 23:08 · Europe/Bucharest
The Aug. 22 meeting in Birmingham produced a 3-2 away win for Sporting JAX, sealed by Danny Wilson's goal deep into second-half stoppage time and recalled as the first road win in the men's team's history. It is the only completed league meeting between the clubs this season, since the October fixture was abandoned before a result could stand. That first win came in Birmingham, however, whereas the replay is at Hodges Stadium with no crowd, so the venue change makes the August result only partly transferable.
- Sporting Club Jacksonville won 3-2 at Birmingham Legion FC on Aug. 22.
- It was the first USL Championship road win in the first-year club's men's soccer history.
- Danny Wilson scored 11 minutes into second-half stoppage time for the winning goal.
ConfirmedSources checked 13 Oct 2026, 23:08 · Europe/BucharestMatch reportwww.jacksonville.com · 23 Aug 2026
Seven winless away matches between 5 July and 3 October make Birmingham's road form the weakest part of their season. Sporting JAX's home record is only modest, so the contrast is not decisive, yet it does improve the home side's chances of avoiding defeat. Birmingham's 11 draws in 26 league games is the counterweight.
- Birmingham's away split for the tracked window shows 0 wins, 2 draws and 5 defeats in 7 matches (5 Jul–3 Oct 2026).
- They average 1.14 goals scored and 2.29 conceded per away game across that sample.

BetBugs edges

Compare BetBugs' chances with the market's.

Positive edges · 3

BetBugs probabilities

How likely BetBugs thought each outcome was.

Result2 of 5 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Market price 3.30
The read
Sporting JAX have the slightly better home record and won the August meeting away, giving them a narrow edge between two eliminated sides.
- Sporting JAX home: 2W-1D-4L, 1.43 scored and 2.57 conceded per game
- Birmingham away: 0W-2D-5L, 1.14 scored and 2.29 conceded per game
- Head-to-head Aug 22: Sporting JAX won 3-2 at Birmingham
BetBugs · Match WinnerlostSporting JAXEstimated chance37%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Neither side scores much before the break, making a level first half the most likely single outcome.
- Both teams average under one first-half goal
- Sporting JAX home: 0.71 first-half goals for, 0.86 against
- Birmingham away: 0.71 for, 1.29 against
BetBugs · First Half WinnerlostDrawEstimated chance42%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Second halves in these teams' matches often see goals at both ends, which can leave the half level.
- Sporting JAX second half at home: 0.71 for, 1.71 against
- Birmingham second half away: 0.43 for, 1.00 against
- Second-half goals have been shared in several recent matches for both sides
BetBugs · Second Half WinnerwonDrawEstimated chance37%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Sporting JAX have the slightly better home record and won the August meeting away, giving them a narrow edge between two eliminated sides. Birmingham have been the stronger side across the season and should trouble a Sporting JAX defence that concedes heavily at home.
- Sporting JAX home: 2W-1D-4L, 1.43 scored and 2.57 conceded per game
- Birmingham away: 0W-2D-5L, 1.14 scored and 2.29 conceded per game
- Birmingham: 23 points from 26 league games against Sporting JAX's 14 from 27
- Birmingham score 1.73 per game overall against 1.21 for Sporting JAX
BetBugs · Double ChancewonSporting JAX or Birmingham LegionEstimated chance72%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Sporting JAX's home first-half scoring is marginally better than Birmingham's away first-half record, giving them a small edge before the break. Neither side scores much before the break, making a level first half the most likely single outcome.
- Sporting JAX average 0.71 first-half goals at home and concede 0.86
- Birmingham average 0.71 first-half goals away and concede 1.29
- Both teams average under one first-half goal
- Sporting JAX home: 0.71 first-half goals for, 0.86 against
BetBugs · Double Chance First HalflostSporting JAX or DrawEstimated chance74%

Goals5 of 9 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Both defences concede regularly and Sporting JAX's games in particular have produced plenty of goals.
- Sporting JAX matches average 4.00 total goals (1.21 for, 2.79 against)
- Birmingham matches average 3.67 total goals
- Sporting JAX have conceded four goals in three of their last six matches
BetBugs · Goals Over/UnderlostOver 2.5Estimated chance62%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Market price 1.38
The read
Both sides score and concede with regularity, and neither keeps many clean sheets.
- Sporting JAX both teams scored in 9 of 14 matches with no clean sheets
- Birmingham both teams scored in 11 of 15 matches
- Sporting JAX home: both teams scored in 5 of 7
BetBugs · Both Teams to ScorelostYesEstimated chance66%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Sporting JAX have struggled to score more than once in recent games, making a single-goal or blank home output more likely.
- Sporting JAX average 1.43 goals at home across 7 matches
- Sporting JAX scored one or fewer in five of their last six matches
- Birmingham concede 2.29 per away game
BetBugs · Home Goals TotalwonSporting JAX under 1.5Estimated chance60%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Birmingham's away scoring has been modest despite their stronger overall numbers.
- Birmingham average 1.14 goals across 7 away matches
- Birmingham have one away win and scored once or fewer in several road games
- Sporting JAX still concede 2.57 per home game
BetBugs · Away Goals TotalwonBirmingham Legion under 1.5Estimated chance62%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Sporting JAX have conceded in every match this season, making a clean sheet very unlikely.
- No clean sheets for Sporting JAX in 14 matches
- Sporting JAX concede 2.57 goals per home game
- Birmingham have scored in 13 of 15 matches
BetBugs · Team to ScorewonBirmingham Legion to scoreEstimated chance87%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Birmingham concede regularly away and Sporting JAX find the net in most home games.
- Birmingham have no away clean sheets in this window
- Sporting JAX have scored in 5 of 7 home matches
- Birmingham concede 2.29 goals per away game
BetBugs · Team to ScorelostSporting JAX to scoreEstimated chance88%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Market price 1.18
The read
Both teams are regularly involved in first-half goals, so a goal before the break is more likely than not.
- Sporting JAX home first-half total: 1.57 goals
- Birmingham away first-half total: 2.00 goals
- Sporting JAX conceded in the first half in five of their last six matches
BetBugs · 1st Half GoalswonOver 0.5 goals in 1st halfEstimated chance78%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
With both sides averaging well under one first-half goal, at least one team failing to score before the break is likely.
- Both teams average under one first-half goal
- Sporting JAX score 0.71 first-half goals at home
- Birmingham score 0.71 first-half goals away
BetBugs · Both Teams Score First HalfwonNoEstimated chance78%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Second halves involving these sides have produced goals at both ends, supporting more than one after the break.
- Sporting JAX home second-half total: 2.43 goals
- Birmingham away second-half total: 1.43 goals
- Sporting JAX conceded two or more second-half goals in four of their last six
BetBugs · Goals Over Under Second HalflostOver 1.5Estimated chance57%