Sporting JAX0Birmingham Legion1

HT 0–1Sat 10 Oct 2026, 17:00 Predictions graded

Predictions7–750%

Edges1–420%

Quick Take

Pre-match view

Context last updated 8 Oct 2026, 06:06 · Europe/Bucharest

Sporting JAX have conceded 73 league goals and Birmingham Legion have not won any of their seven tracked away matches, so the home side avoiding defeat is the likeliest outcome.

At 1.75, Sporting JAX to win or draw is one of two worthwhile prices, with a Sporting JAX win at 3.0 holding a smaller edge; the overs, both-teams-to-score and short first-half goal lines ask for more than the season supports.

Context

Birmingham Legion's 1-0 defeat at Detroit City on 3 October 2026, combined with results elsewhere, left them at 4-11-11 and outside the Eastern Conference playoff places. A side whose season objective is settled can arrive with looser selection and less urgency, which is why the elimination shapes how this fixture is read. The inference is not automatic, though: eliminated teams also play with freedom, and Legion's final-weeks selection plans are not public.
- Birmingham Legion lost 1-0 at Detroit City on 3 October 2026 in the USL Championship.
- The Eastern Conference table after that match showed Legion at 4-11-11, 11th.
- Following that defeat and other results, Legion were out of USL Championship postseason contention.
ReportedSources checked 8 Oct 2026, 06:04 · Europe/Bucharest
A first shutout of the season would run against the whole of Sporting JAX's tracked record, and their home league games alone have produced 38 goals against in 13 matches. The counterweight is Birmingham Legion's modest road attack and their winless run of seven tracked away matches, which limits how heavily the hosts might be punished.
- 14 tracked competitive matches from 20 June to 30 September 2026: no clean sheets and a goals-against average of 2.79.
The winless road run is the clearest reason the home side is favoured, and it covers roughly three months of the season. Two of those seven away matches were drawn rather than lost, so a point is not out of reach for the visitors even without a win.
- Birmingham Legion tracked away record: 7 league matches from 5 July to 3 October 2026, 0 wins, 2 draws, 5 defeats.
The clubs' most recent meeting, on 22 August 2026, saw Sporting JAX win 3-2 at Birmingham Legion through Danny Wilson's goal 11 minutes into second-half stoppage time, the club's first USL Championship away victory. It is the only recent head-to-head reference for the October rematch and shows the fixture can run to the final moments. It is a limited guide, since one late goal months earlier says little about current form and the venue has flipped to Jacksonville.
- Sporting JAX won 3-2 at Birmingham Legion on 22 August 2026 in the USL Championship.
- Danny Wilson scored 11 minutes into second-half stoppage time for the winning goal.
- The result was the first USL Championship road win for Sporting JAX's first-year men's team.
ConfirmedSources checked 8 Oct 2026, 06:04 · Europe/BucharestReport on Sporting JAX's 3-2 win at Birmingham Legionwww.jacksonville.com · 23 Aug 2026Birmingham Legion match reportwww.bhmlegion.com · 22 Aug 2026

BetBugs edges

Compare BetBugs' chances with the market's.

Positive edges · 2

Other edges · 3

The published chance does not exceed the market's implied chance.

1st Half GoalswonUncertainty band: Strong lean

Over 0.5 goals in 1st half

1.20fair 1.28

BetBugs 78% · Market 83.3%

−5.3ppshort

Both teams have scored or conceded before half-time in every one of their recent matches.

BetBugs probabilities

How likely BetBugs thought each outcome was.

Result2 of 5 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Market price 3.00
The read
Legion's away record is the weaker of two poor records and Sporting JAX have the home ground.
- Sporting JAX are 3W-5D-19L in 27 league games with 73 goals conceded.
- Their home league record is 2W-3D-8L, 20 scored and 38 conceded in 13.
- Birmingham Legion are 1W-4D-7L away, 16 scored and 25 conceded in 12.
- Sporting JAX won the only recent meeting 3-2 at Birmingham on 22 August.
BetBugs · Match WinnerlostSporting JAXEstimated chance37%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Both teams' first-half scoring is modest and a level opening period is the single most common outcome.
- Sporting JAX average 0.71 first-half goals at home; Legion average 0.71 in away first halves.
- Sporting JAX concede 0.86 first-half goals at home.
- Legion were level at half-time in 2 of their last 6 matches.
- Sporting JAX were level at half-time in 1 of their last 6.
BetBugs · First Half WinnerlostDrawEstimated chance39%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Legion's late scoring is modest and both teams have had level second halves recently.
- Sporting JAX drew the second half in 2 of their last 6 matches.
- Legion drew the second half in 3 of their last 6 matches.
- Legion average 0.43 second-half goals away and concede 1.0.
- Sporting JAX average 0.71 second-half goals at home.
BetBugs · Second Half WinnerwonDrawEstimated chance38%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Legion's away record is the weaker of two poor records and Sporting JAX have the home ground. Legion sit above Sporting JAX in the table and score more freely, while the home defence concedes regularly.
- Sporting JAX are 3W-5D-19L in 27 league games with 73 goals conceded.
- Their home league record is 2W-3D-8L, 20 scored and 38 conceded in 13.
- Legion are 4W-11D-11L in the league with 36 scored and 43 conceded.
- Sporting JAX have conceded 73 goals in 27 league matches.
BetBugs · Double ChancewonSporting JAX or Birmingham LegionEstimated chance72%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Legion's away first halves have been their weakest period and Sporting JAX are at home. Both teams' first-half scoring is modest and a level opening period is the single most common outcome.
- Sporting JAX average 0.71 first-half goals at home and 0.86 conceded.
- Legion concede 1.29 first-half goals per tracked away match.
- Sporting JAX average 0.71 first-half goals at home; Legion average 0.71 in away first halves.
- Sporting JAX concede 0.86 first-half goals at home.
BetBugs · Double Chance First HalflostSporting JAX or DrawEstimated chance72%

Goals5 of 9 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Market price 1.40
The read
Both defences concede regularly and neither side shuts opponents out often, so three goals is well within reach.
- Sporting JAX league games average 3.9 goals: 32 scored and 73 conceded in 27.
- Legion league games average 3.0 goals: 36 scored and 43 conceded in 26.
- Sporting JAX have conceded 2.79 goals per tracked competitive match.
- Legion have kept 2 clean sheets in 15 tracked matches, none of them away.
BetBugs · Goals Over/UnderlostOver 2.5Estimated chance66%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Market price 1.43
The read
Neither defence keeps clean sheets and both attacks score often enough for each side to find the net.
- Sporting JAX have kept no clean sheet in 14 tracked competitive matches.
- Legion have kept no clean sheet in 7 tracked away matches.
- Both teams scored in 5 of Sporting JAX's 7 tracked home matches.
- Both teams scored in 5 of Legion's 7 tracked away matches.
BetBugs · Both Teams to ScorelostYesEstimated chance64%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Sporting JAX have been limited to a single goal or none in most recent outings.
- Sporting JAX scored one goal or fewer in 5 of their last 6 matches.
- Sporting JAX have scored 9 goals in 14 tracked competitive matches.
- Legion have conceded only 7 goals in 7 tracked away matches.
- Legion have kept no clean sheet in 7 tracked away matches.
BetBugs · Home Goals TotalwonSporting JAX under 1.5Estimated chance54%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Legion's away scoring has been limited and they were shut out in two of their last three away games.
- Legion have scored 5 goals in 7 tracked away matches.
- Legion failed to score in 2 of their last 6 matches.
- Legion were shut out in 2 of their last 3 away games.
- Legion's 7 tracked away matches produced 12 goals in total.
BetBugs · Away Goals TotalwonBirmingham Legion under 1.5Estimated chance54%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
A Sporting JAX shutout would go against everything in their season to date.
- Sporting JAX have kept no clean sheet in 14 tracked competitive matches.
- Sporting JAX have conceded 38 goals in 13 home league games.
- Legion have scored 16 goals in 12 away league games.
- Sporting JAX conceded in every tracked home match.
BetBugs · Team to ScorewonBirmingham Legion to scoreEstimated chance90%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Legion's away shutouts have not happened in the tracked sample while Sporting JAX score at home.
- Legion have kept no clean sheet in 7 tracked away matches.
- Legion have 2 clean sheets in 15 tracked matches.
- Sporting JAX have scored 20 goals in 13 home league games.
- Sporting JAX scored in 4 of their last 6 matches.
BetBugs · Team to ScorelostSporting JAX to scoreEstimated chance87%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Market price 1.20
The read
Both teams have scored or conceded before half-time in every one of their recent matches.
- Sporting JAX's home first halves average 1.57 goals.
- Legion's away first halves average 2.0 goals.
- Every one of Sporting JAX's last six matches had a first-half goal.
- Every one of Legion's last six matches had a first-half goal.
BetBugs · 1st Half GoalswonOver 0.5 goals in 1st halfEstimated chance78%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Both teams' first-half scoring averages are under one goal, making a split half unlikely.
- Sporting JAX's first-half scoring average at home is 0.71 goals.
- Legion's first-half scoring average away is 0.71 goals.
- Legion failed to score in the first half of 3 of their last 6 matches.
- Sporting JAX failed to score in the first half of 3 of their last 6 matches.
BetBugs · Both Teams Score First HalfwonNoEstimated chance63%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Sporting JAX's home games have produced plenty of second-half goals this season.
- Sporting JAX's home second halves average 2.43 goals.
- Legion's away second halves average 1.43 goals.
- Five of Sporting JAX's last six matches produced 2 or more second-half goals.
- Sporting JAX concede 1.71 second-half goals at home.
BetBugs · Goals Over Under Second HalflostOver 1.5Estimated chance60%