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Predictions graded

Paderborn0Stuttgart2

HT 0–1Sat 10 Oct 2026, 13:30 Predictions graded

Predictions6–460%

Edges3–443%

PossPossession 51%–49%ShotsShots 24–18On targetOn target 6–8CornersCorners 7–5

Quick Take

Pre-match view

Context last updated 6 Oct 2026, 10:07 · Europe/Bucharest

Stuttgart's 23-match away scoring run and four wins in five meetings with Paderborn collide with a side that has lost both away league games, conceding seven, and a Paderborn team whose last home league game finished 3-1 in their favour.

Stuttgart are narrow favourites, but Paderborn to win or draw at 2.3, to lead at half-time at 4.33, to win at 4.5, over 10.5 corners at 1.95 and under 2.5 goals at 3 all hold an edge; Stuttgart at 1.57 does not.

Context

Stuttgart have conceded in all four league games so far, including three at Dortmund, so any change at the back carries weight against a Paderborn side that scored three past Hoffenheim at home in September. A reshuffled defence is exactly the kind of condition that can soften how a clear favourite is read. The update comes from a single German reporter with no club confirmation of either the injury or the expected replacements, so the scale of the disruption should be treated as provisional.
- Ameen Al-Dakhil is definitively unavailable for the Paderborn fixture.
- A diagnosis on Ramon Hendriks remains pending, leaving his involvement in the match open.
ReportedSources checked 6 Oct 2026, 10:04 · Europe/Bucharest
Seimen, one of Germany's most closely watched young goalkeepers, completed 70 minutes in a 5-0 friendly win on 1 October, his first outing since an injury layoff. Stuttgart have taken three points from four league matches, so the goalkeeping call is one of several decisions facing Sebastian Hoeness ahead of the Paderborn trip. The comeback came in a friendly rather than a competitive fixture, so it establishes fitness more clearly than readiness or a guaranteed starting place.
- Dennis Seimen played 70 minutes as Stuttgart beat Greuther Fuerth 5-0 on 1 October 2026.
- Seimen had been out for around two and a half months before that friendly.
ReportedSources checked 6 Oct 2026, 10:04 · Europe/Bucharest
The reference point is the promotion season Paderborn have just completed, when Baur was their main creative force before Celtic signed him. With three goals in four league matches, Paderborn need a settled route into the box if they are to trouble a Stuttgart defence that has conceded in every league game. The preview weighs attacking options rather than settling on one, so it points to an open selection question rather than a fixed plan.
- Mika Baur joined Celtic from Paderborn in August 2026.
- Paderborn's creative options ahead of the Stuttgart fixture centre on Ulrich and Vidovic.
ReportedSources checked 6 Oct 2026, 10:04 · Europe/Bucharest
Paderborn's home form is one win and one defeat from two league games, and the Hoffenheim match is the only time they have scored more than once in the league this season.
Paderborn won that game without controlling it, 13 shots to 23, and Stuttgart have conceded in every league game this season. A repeat of that home cutting edge is Paderborn's clearest route into the match, though Freiburg's 0-1 win in Paderborn in September shows how quickly the same fixture can go the other way.
- Paderborn beat Hoffenheim 3-1 at home on 20 September 2026, scoring twice in the first half.
- Paderborn took 13 shots to Hoffenheim's 23 in that match, with five shots on target to Hoffenheim's two.
- Paderborn's other home league match this season, against Freiburg on 5 September, was a 0-1 defeat.

BetBugs edges

Compare BetBugs' chances with the market's.

Positive edges · 5

BetBugs probabilities

How likely BetBugs thought each outcome was.

Result2 of 4 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Stuttgart's stronger historical record and scoring threat make them the narrow favourites despite poor away results.
- Stuttgart have won four of the five competitive meetings with Paderborn.
- Stuttgart have scored in each of their last 23 Bundesliga away matches.
- Stuttgart have scored 6 goals in 4 league games this season.
- Paderborn have conceded 5 goals in 4 league games.
BetBugs · Match WinnerwonStuttgartEstimated chance40%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Market price 4.33
The read
Paderborn have started well at home, while Stuttgart have trailed at half-time in both away league games.
- Paderborn scored twice in the first half of their 3-1 home win over Hoffenheim.
- Stuttgart lost the first half in both away league games (0-1 at Hoffenheim, 0-1 at Bayern).
- Paderborn's home league first-half goals average is 1.25.
BetBugs · First Half WinnerlostPaderbornEstimated chance38%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Paderborn have home advantage and Stuttgart's away league form is poor, so a home win is a real possibility. Stuttgart's stronger historical record and scoring threat make them the narrow favourites despite poor away results.
- Paderborn have 4 points from 4 Bundesliga games, with a home record of 1 win and 1 loss.
- Paderborn beat Hoffenheim 3-1 at home in their most recent home league match.
- Stuttgart have won four of the five competitive meetings with Paderborn.
- Stuttgart have scored in each of their last 23 Bundesliga away matches.
BetBugs · Double ChancewonPaderborn or StuttgartEstimated chance72%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Paderborn have started well at home, while Stuttgart have trailed at half-time in both away league games. Both teams have had level first halves in recent league matches, making a draw at the break plausible.
- Paderborn scored twice in the first half of their 3-1 home win over Hoffenheim.
- Stuttgart lost the first half in both away league games (0-1 at Hoffenheim, 0-1 at Bayern).
- Paderborn's 0-0 draw with Mainz was level at half-time.
- Stuttgart were level at half-time in their 0-1 loss to Dortmund.
BetBugs · Double Chance First HalflostPaderborn or DrawEstimated chance70%

Goals1 of 3 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Stuttgart's matches have been high-scoring and their away games have featured goals, pointing to over 2.5.
- Stuttgart's four league games have averaged 3.75 total goals.
- Stuttgart's away league games produced 3 and 6 goals.
- Paderborn's four league games have averaged 2.0 total goals.
BetBugs · Goals Over/UnderlostOver 2.5Estimated chance62%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Market price 1.44
The read
Stuttgart usually score away and concede chances, while Paderborn found the net at home last time out.
- Stuttgart have scored in 23 consecutive away Bundesliga matches.
- Stuttgart have conceded in all four league games.
- Paderborn scored three at home to Hoffenheim in their last home league game.
BetBugs · Both Teams to ScorelostYesEstimated chance60%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Market price 1.17
The read
Most league games for both teams have produced at least one first-half goal.
- Three of Paderborn's four league games had a first-half goal.
- Three of Stuttgart's four league games had a first-half goal.
- Paderborn's home league first-half goals average is 1.25.
BetBugs · 1st Half GoalswonOver 0.5 goals in 1st halfEstimated chance75%

Match stats3 of 3 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Market price 1.95
The read
Stuttgart's games often produce double-digit corners, and Paderborn's last home match had 11.
- Stuttgart's four league games average 12.5 total corners.
- Paderborn's four league games average 10.8 total corners.
- Paderborn's last home match had 11 corners.
BetBugs · Corners Over/UnderwonOver 10.5Estimated chance62%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Both teams' league games have averaged more than 30 total shots, supporting over 28.5.
- Stuttgart's four league games average 33.3 total shots.
- Paderborn's four league games average 30.3 total shots.
- Stuttgart's away league games average 29.3 total shots.
BetBugs · Shots Over/UnderwonOver 28.5Estimated chance68%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Stuttgart's high shots-on-target numbers push the match total above 9.5.
- Stuttgart's four league games average 11.5 shots on target.
- Stuttgart's away league games produced 13 shots on target twice.
- Paderborn's home games average 9.0 shots on target.
BetBugs · Shots on Target Over/UnderwonOver 9.5Estimated chance55%

Head-to-Head

2W · 1D · 0W

W1-2SC Paderborn 07vVfB StuttgartJan 31, 2023DFB

W1-2SC Paderborn 07vVfB StuttgartMay 23, 2015BL

D0-0VfB StuttgartvSC Paderborn 07Dec 20, 2014BL

Paderborn unbeaten in 3 meetings2 goals/game avg

League Table

Bundesliga 2026/2027

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF-GA	Pts	Form
12	Paderborn	4	1	1	2	3-5	4	WLLD
15	Stuttgart	4	1	0	3	6-9	3	LLWL

1pt gap between teams

Recent Form

Paderborn

W1-0DC UnitedSep 30FRI

W3-11899 HoffenheimSep 20BL

L0-3Borussia DortmundSep 12BL

L0-1SC FreiburgSep 5BL

D0-0FSV Mainz 05Aug 29BL

W4-2Phönix LübeckAug 23DFB

D2-2Werder BremenAug 8FRI

W2-0VfL OsnabrückAug 1FRI

W3-1Fagiano OkayamaJul 17FRI

D0-0VfL WolfsburgMay 21BL

W2-0SV Darmstadt 98May 172.

D2-2Karlsruher SCMay 82.

L1-5SV ElversbergMay 32.

L2-3FC Schalke 04Apr 262.

D1-1Hannover 96Apr 182.

Stuttgart

W5-0SpVgg Greuther FürthOct 1FRI

W3-01. FC HeidenheimSep 25FRI

L0-1Borussia DortmundSep 19BL

L1-21899 HoffenheimSep 12BL

W3-1VikingSep 9UEF

W4-11. FC KölnSep 4BL

L1-5Bayern MünchenAug 28BL

W4-0Hansa RostockAug 21DFB

L0-1FulhamAug 15FRI

W3-1EvertonAug 8FRI

D2-2Paris FCAug 1FRI

W8-1Kickers OffenbachJul 29FRI

W5-0HollenbachJul 25FRI

W7-0BalingenJul 19FRI

L0-3Bayern MünchenMay 23DFB

Squad & Injuries

Paderborn

31 available

Attackers6

Midfielders13

Defenders10

Goalkeeper2

Stuttgart

34 available

Attackers12

Midfielders6

Defenders12

Goalkeeper4

Quick Take

Context

BetBugs edges

Paderborn or Draw

Paderborn

Over 10.5

Paderborn

Under 2.5

Over 0.5 goals in 1st half

Yes

Result2 of 4 landed

Goals1 of 3 landed

Match stats3 of 3 landed

Head-to-Head

League Table

Recent Form

Paderborn

Stuttgart

Squad & Injuries

Paderborn

Stuttgart