2. BundesligaFull time

Predictions graded

Paderborn 072Karlsruhe2

HT 1–0Fri 8 May 2026, 16:30 Predictions graded

Predictions7–278%

Edges5–183%

PossPossession 49%–51%ShotsShots 19–7On targetOn target 6–4CornersCorners 4–1

Quick Take

Pre-match view

Context last updated 4 May 2026, 13:10 · Europe/Bucharest

Paderborn's strong home form and Karlsruhe's poor away record point to a home win, but recent H2H blowouts in both directions add risk.

The best betting value lies in over 3.5 goals at 1.85, supported by high-scoring trends in this fixture and both teams' leaky defenses.

Context

Kettemann was appointed Paderborn head coach on 20 May 2025 after leaving Karlsruhe's U19.
- This is his first professional head-coach role, adding personal significance to the fixture.
- Direct staff crossover often provides tactical insights into the opponent's setup.
Sihlaroğlu is listed as 'Missing Fixture' with jumper's knee.
- No other Karlsruhe injuries reported, but losing a squad player reduces depth.
- Paderborn have no reported injuries, giving them a full-strength advantage.
Last four H2H results: 4-0, 3-0, 2-1, 1-1.
- Two of the last three were clean-sheet wins for the away side.
- The last two games in Karlsruhe were opposite blowouts: 3-0 KSC then 4-0 Paderborn.
Home record: 10W-2D-4L, 33 goals scored, 25 conceded.
- Last 5 home matches: 3 wins, 1 draw, 1 loss.
- Paderborn have scored in 15 of 16 home games but kept only 5 clean sheets.

BetBugs edges

Compare BetBugs' chances with the market's.

Positive edges · 1

Other edges · 6

The published chance does not exceed the market's implied chance.

Match WinnerlostUncertainty band: Slight lean

Paderborn 07

1.43fair 1.82

BetBugs 55% · Market 70%

0.0ppshort

Paderborn's strong home form (10W-2D-4L) and Karlsruhe's poor away record (3W-4D-9L) give the hosts a clear edge, but the odds already reflect this.

Double ChancewonUncertainty band: Strong lean

Paderborn 07 or Draw

1.14fair 1.25

BetBugs 80% · Market 88%

0.0ppshort

Paderborn are unbeaten in 75% of home matches while Karlsruhe have won only 19% of away games, making a home win or draw highly probable.

Goals Over/UnderwonUncertainty band: Lean

Over 2.5

1.33fair 1.67

BetBugs 60% · Market 75.2%

0.0ppshort

Both teams' matches this season and recent H2H history show a strong trend toward high-scoring games, supporting over 2.5 goals.

Both Teams To ScorewonUncertainty band: Lean

Yes

1.50fair 1.67

BetBugs 60% · Market 66.7%

0.0ppshort

Both teams consistently find the net in their respective home/away fixtures, and Paderborn's defensive record at home (1.56 goals conceded per game) gives Karlsruhe a chance to score.

2 Nd Half Goals Over/UnderwonUncertainty band: Lean

Over 1.5

1.57fair 1.67

BetBugs 60% · Market 63.7%

0.0ppshort

Both teams tend to produce more goals after the break, with Paderborn's home matches and Karlsruhe's away matches frequently seeing second-half scoring.

BetBugs probabilities

How likely BetBugs thought each outcome was.

Result2 of 3 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Paderborn's strong home form and Karlsruhe's poor away record, combined with the recent 4-0 H2H win, give Paderborn a clear edge.
- Paderborn home record: 10W-2D-4L, 33 goals scored, 25 conceded in 16 matches this season.
- Karlsruhe away record: 3W-4D-9L, 17 goals scored, 33 conceded in 16 matches.
- Paderborn last 5 home matches: 3 wins, 1 draw, 1 loss (vs top-half teams).
- H2H last meeting: Paderborn won 4-0 away at Karlsruhe on 13 Dec 2025.
BetBugs · Match WinnerlostPaderborn 07Estimated chance55%
Signal quality High · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Paderborn are very hard to beat at home, while Karlsruhe struggle on the road, making a home win or draw highly likely.
- Paderborn home record: 10W-2D-4L (75% unbeaten at home).
- Karlsruhe away record: only 3 wins in 16 away matches (19% win rate).
- Paderborn have lost only 4 of 16 home games this season.
- Karlsruhe have lost 9 of 16 away games.
BetBugs · Double ChancewonPaderborn 07 or DrawEstimated chance80%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Paderborn's tendency to start strong at home and Karlsruhe's slow starts on the road suggest a home lead at the break, though the probability is modest.
- Paderborn home: led at half-time in 40% of last 10 matches (form data).
- Karlsruhe away: trailed at half-time in 40% of last 10 matches.
- Paderborn have scored first in 4 of last 5 home matches.
- Karlsruhe have conceded first in 4 of last 5 away matches.
BetBugs · First Half WinnerwonPaderborn 07Estimated chance40%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Paderborn's superior second-half performance at home and Karlsruhe's struggles after the break give the hosts a slight edge to win the second half.
- Paderborn home second-half record: won 6, drawn 6, lost 4 in 16 home matches (estimated from overall).
- Karlsruhe away second-half record: won 3, drawn 4, lost 9 in 16 away matches.
- Paderborn have outscored opponents in the second half in 3 of last 5 home matches.
- Karlsruhe have been outscored in the second half in 3 of last 5 away matches.
BetBugs · Second Half Winnernot gradablePaderborn 07Estimated chance45%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
While Paderborn are favorites, leading at half-time and winning is not a frequent occurrence, but the matchup against a poor away side makes it a plausible low-probability outcome.
- Paderborn home: led at half-time and won in 6 of 16 home matches (38%).
- Karlsruhe away: trailed at half-time and lost in 7 of 16 away matches (44%).
- Paderborn have won both halves in 2 of last 5 home matches.
- Karlsruhe have lost both halves in 2 of last 5 away matches.
BetBugs · Ht Ft Doublenot gradablePaderborn 07 / Paderborn 07Estimated chance30%

Goals4 of 4 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Both teams' matches this season and recent H2H history show a strong trend toward high-scoring games, supporting over 2.5 goals.
- Paderborn home matches average 3.6 total goals (33 scored, 25 conceded in 16 games).
- Karlsruhe away matches average 3.1 total goals (17 scored, 33 conceded in 16 games).
- Last 5 H2H meetings: 4-0, 3-0, 2-1, 1-1, 3-0 – 4 of 5 had over 2.5 goals.
- Paderborn's last 8 matches: 6 had over 2.5 goals.
BetBugs · Goals Over/UnderwonOver 2.5Estimated chance60%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Both teams consistently find the net in their respective home/away fixtures, and Paderborn's defensive record at home (1.56 goals conceded per game) gives Karlsruhe a chance to score.
- Paderborn home: both teams scored in 11 of 16 home matches (69%).
- Karlsruhe away: both teams scored in 10 of 16 away matches (63%).
- Paderborn have scored in 15 of 16 home games; Karlsruhe have scored in 12 of 16 away games.
- Last 5 H2H: both teams scored in 2 of 5, but recent form suggests more open play.
BetBugs · Both Teams to ScorewonYesEstimated chance60%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Paderborn's home matches often start with early action, and Karlsruhe's away games see first-half goals, though the evidence is not overwhelming.
- Paderborn home first-half goals: average 1.0 scored, 1.1 conceded in last 10 overall (form data).
- Karlsruhe away first-half goals: average 0.4 scored, 0.9 conceded in last 10 overall.
- Paderborn's last 5 home matches: 4 had at least 1 first-half goal, 2 had over 1.5.
- H2H last meeting: 0-0 at half-time, but previous meetings had first-half goals.
BetBugs · 1st Half GoalswonOver 1.5 goals in 1st halfEstimated chance55%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Both teams tend to produce more goals after the break, with Paderborn's home matches and Karlsruhe's away matches frequently seeing second-half scoring.
- Paderborn home second-half goals: average 1.2 scored, 0.8 conceded in last 10 overall.
- Karlsruhe away second-half goals: average 1.2 scored, 0.9 conceded in last 10 overall.
- Paderborn's last 5 home matches: 4 had over 1.5 second-half goals.
- Karlsruhe's last 5 away matches: 3 had over 1.5 second-half goals.
BetBugs · Goals Over Under Second HalfwonOver 1.5Estimated chance60%

Match stats1 of 2 landed

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
The corner counts in this fixture have occasionally been high, and both teams' recent matches show potential for double-digit corners, though the evidence is mixed.
- Paderborn home corners: average 4.4 per match, opponent corners 3.8 (last 10 overall).
- Karlsruhe away corners: average 3.3 per match, opponent corners 5.2 (last 10 overall).
- Combined average corners in Paderborn home matches: ~8.2, but recent H2H had 8, 9, 5, 7, 11 corners.
- Last 5 H2H: 3 of 5 had over 9.5 corners.
BetBugs · Corners Over/UnderlostOver 9.5Estimated chance55%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
While average card counts are moderate, the competitive nature of this fixture and recent H2H spikes suggest a reasonable chance of exceeding 4.5 cards.
- Paderborn home cards: average 1.8 yellow, 0.5 red in last 10 overall.
- Karlsruhe away cards: average 2.1 yellow, 0 red in last 10 overall.
- Combined average cards: ~3.9, but recent H2H had 8, 4, 4, 3, 2 cards.
- Paderborn's last 5 home matches: 3 had over 4.5 cards.
BetBugs · Cards Over/UnderwonOver 4.5Estimated chance55%

Head-to-Head

3W · 1D · 1W

W0-4Karlsruher SCvSC Paderborn 07Dec 13, 20252.

L3-0Karlsruher SCvSC Paderborn 07May 18, 20252.

W1-2SC Paderborn 07vKarlsruher SCDec 21, 20242.

D1-1SC Paderborn 07vKarlsruher SCApr 13, 20242.

W0-3Karlsruher SCvSC Paderborn 07Nov 5, 20232.

Paderborn 07: 2 clean sheets3 goals/game avg

League Table

2. Bundesliga 2025/2026

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF-GA	Pts	Form
4	Paderborn 07	32	17	7	8	55-43	58	LLDWW
8	Karlsruhe	32	12	7	13	50-60	43	WLLWL

15pt gap between teams

Recent Form

Paderborn 07

L1-5SV ElversbergMay 32.

L2-3FC Schalke 04Apr 262.

D1-1Hannover 96Apr 182.

W4-31. FC MagdeburgApr 122.

W2-0SpVgg Greuther FürthApr 52.

W2-1Dynamo DresdenMar 212.

D2-2Arminia BielefeldMar 142.

D1-1Eintracht BraunschweigMar 72.

W2-11. FC KaiserslauternFeb 282.

W5-2Hertha BSCFeb 222.

Karlsruhe

W2-1SV Darmstadt 98May 32.

L1-3Hannover 96Apr 252.

L0-3SV ElversbergApr 172.

W4-1Arminia BielefeldApr 102.

L0-1FC Schalke 04Apr 52.

L0-1SV WehenMar 26FRI

W3-1SpVgg Greuther FürthMar 202.

L0-31. FC KaiserslauternMar 152.

D3-3Dynamo DresdenMar 82.

W3-11. FC MagdeburgMar 12.

Squad & Injuries

Paderborn 07

24 available

Attackers6

Midfielders11

Defenders4

Goalkeeper3

Karlsruhe

1 out

Attackers5

Midfielders14

Defenders8

Goalkeeper3

E. Sihlaroğlu — Jumpers knee

Paderborn 072Karlsruhe2

Quick Take

Context

BetBugs edges

Over 3.5

Paderborn 07

Paderborn 07 or Draw

Paderborn 07 at half-time / Paderborn 07 at full-time

Over 2.5

Yes

Over 1.5

BetBugs probabilities

Result2 of 3 landed

Goals4 of 4 landed

Match stats1 of 2 landed

Head-to-Head

League Table

Recent Form

Paderborn 07

Karlsruhe

Squad & Injuries

Paderborn 07

Karlsruhe