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Predictions graded

Sutton United0Boreham Wood2

HT 0–0Fri 9 Oct 2026, 18:45 Predictions graded

Predictions10–471%

Edges3–350%

Quick Take

Pre-match view

Context last updated 8 Oct 2026, 22:58 · Europe/Bucharest

Boreham Wood arrive top and unbeaten; Sutton have not won in four league games.

The leaders' away scoring against a home side with three home wins is the matchup's tension, and Boreham Wood should have too much, most likely after half-time. The 1.7 win price does not justify a bet, but the first half to end level at 2.4 and both teams not to score before the break at 1.22 carry a slim edge.

Context

Whitfield joined on a short-term loan on 14 September 2026 and has scored six goals in six appearances, form that earned him a place on September's National League player-of-the-month shortlist. His loan runs only to mid-December, the longest period permitted outside a transfer window, so Barrow retain the option of recalling him before the season's second half. Sutton have conceded in each of their last four league matches, including three in a 3-3 home draw with Forest Green, which is the defensive record the visitors' in-form loanee arrives against.
- Ben Whitfield joined Boreham Wood from Barrow on a short-term loan on 14 September 2026.
- The loan runs to mid-December 2026, the longest period permitted outside a transfer window.
- Whitfield has scored six goals in six appearances for Boreham Wood.
- Boreham Wood's September National League award nominations are manager Luke Garrard and player Ben Whitfield.
ConfirmedSources checked 8 Oct 2026, 22:56 · Europe/Bucharest
Garrard's side have not lost a league game this season and lead the division, and he sits on September's manager-of-the-month shortlist alongside his forward Ben Whitfield. Boreham Wood's away record is the strongest in the division according to the fixture previews, and they visit a Sutton team without a league win in four matches. Sutton's two home league wins this season came against Eastleigh and Hartlepool, both by a single goal, so the leaders' away record meets a ground where the home side has already taken maximum points twice.
- Luke Garrard is Boreham Wood's manager and is shortlisted for September's National League manager-of-the-month award.
- Boreham Wood are unbeaten in the National League and lead the division.
- Boreham Wood published a pre-match interview with Garrard ahead of the trip to Sutton United.
- Sutton United's own preview billed Friday's fixture as a meeting with the league leaders.
ConfirmedSources checked 8 Oct 2026, 22:56 · Europe/Bucharest
Agutter has led Sutton through the season and used the club's pre-match preview to frame the visitors as untested: 'I don't think they have been properly tested this year.' It is a pointed line from a manager whose own side are without a league win in four matches and whose two home league victories, over Eastleigh and Hartlepool, both finished 2-1. Bullish framing from a coach is not evidence of a tactical change, and Sutton's team news for the fixture centres on a returning international rather than a selection surprise.
- Chris Agutter is Sutton United's manager.
- Agutter's preview of the fixture: 'I don't think they have been properly tested this year.'
- Sutton United go into the match without a win in four National League games.
ConfirmedSources checked 8 Oct 2026, 22:56 · Europe/Bucharest
Francis was recalled by Grenada for September's CONCACAF Nations League fixtures and started for them on 28 September, and Sutton's team news for Friday carries the Grenada flag in its headline. His return restores an option for a home side without a league win in four matches, and it is the main availability note either club has published for the fixture. The team news does not indicate whether he starts, so the change is to the available squad rather than to a confirmed XI.
- Sutton United's team news for Friday's match is headed 'Back from duty' with the Grenada flag.
- Jermaine Francis was recalled by Grenada in September 2026.
- Jermaine Francis started for Grenada on 28 September 2026.
- J. Francis started 0 of the 5 recent team fixtures with available lineups.
ConfirmedSources checked 8 Oct 2026, 22:56 · Europe/Bucharest

BetBugs edges

Compare BetBugs' chances with the market's.

Positive edges · 2

Other edges · 4

The published chance does not exceed the market's implied chance.

1st Half GoalslostUncertainty band: Strong lean

Over 0.5 goals in 1st half

1.25fair 1.28

BetBugs 78% · Market 80%

−2.0ppshort

The first-half scoring rates from both sides point to at least one goal.

Goals Over/UnderlostUncertainty band: Lean

Over 2.5

1.60fair 1.67

BetBugs 60% · Market 62.5%

−2.5ppshort

The away side scores regularly and Sutton's home games have produced goals.

Both Teams to ScorelostUncertainty band: Lean

Yes

1.62fair 1.67

BetBugs 60% · Market 61.7%

−1.7ppshort

Boreham Wood almost always score away, and Sutton have enough home threat to reply.

BetBugs probabilities

How likely BetBugs thought each outcome was.

Result5 of 5 landed

Signal quality High · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Market price 1.70
The read
Boreham Wood are unbeaten and have been much the stronger side away from home.
- Boreham Wood are top with 10 wins and 2 draws in 12 league matches.
- Away record: 5 wins, 1 draw, 0 losses; 15 goals scored, 5 conceded.
- Boreham Wood won both recent meetings, including 1-0 in April 2026.
- Sutton are without a league win in four matches.
BetBugs · Match WinnerwonBoreham WoodEstimated chance57%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Market price 2.40
The read
A tight first half is plausible given the combined first-half scoring rate.
- Sutton first half overall: 0.5 for, 0.5 against; home: 0.83 for, 0.67 against.
- Boreham Wood first half overall: 1.07 for, 0.43 against; away: 0.67 for, 0.17 against.
- Combined first-half average is around 1.5 goals.
- Boreham Wood were level at half-time in two of their last six matches.
BetBugs · First Half WinnerwonDrawEstimated chance44%
Signal quality High · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Boreham Wood's second-half scoring away from home is the strongest part of their record.
- Boreham Wood score 1.83 second-half goals away; Sutton concede 0.83 second-half goals at home.
- Boreham Wood scored 11 second-half goals in their last six matches.
- Recent wins include 3-1, 3-1, 3-0 and 4-1.
- Sutton conceded seven second-half goals in their last six matches.
BetBugs · Second Half WinnerwonBoreham WoodEstimated chance50%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Sutton have been drawing frequently and can hold a strong opponent. Boreham Wood are unbeaten and have been much the stronger side away from home.
- Sutton have drawn 3 of 12 league matches, including 1 home draw.
- Boreham Wood have drawn 2 of 12 league matches, including 1 away draw.
- Boreham Wood are top with 10 wins and 2 draws in 12 league matches.
- Away record: 5 wins, 1 draw, 0 losses; 15 goals scored, 5 conceded.
BetBugs · Double ChancewonDraw or Boreham WoodEstimated chance82%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
A tight first half is plausible given the combined first-half scoring rate. Boreham Wood have the better first-half numbers and can take an early lead.
- Sutton first half overall: 0.5 for, 0.5 against; home: 0.83 for, 0.67 against.
- Boreham Wood first half overall: 1.07 for, 0.43 against; away: 0.67 for, 0.17 against.
- Boreham Wood score 0.67 first-half goals away and concede 0.17.
- Sutton concede 0.67 first-half goals at home.
BetBugs · Double Chance First HalfwonDraw or Boreham WoodEstimated chance80%

Goals5 of 9 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Market price 1.60
The read
The away side scores regularly and Sutton's home games have produced goals.
- Sutton home matches average 2.83 total goals; Boreham Wood away matches average 3.33.
- Boreham Wood scored 15 goals in six away matches.
- Sutton conceded 9 goals in six home matches.
- Both teams scored in 12 of Boreham Wood's 14 competitive matches.
BetBugs · Goals Over/UnderlostOver 2.5Estimated chance60%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Market price 1.62
The read
Boreham Wood almost always score away, and Sutton have enough home threat to reply.
- Boreham Wood scored in all six away matches.
- Sutton scored in four of six home matches.
- Both teams scored in 12 of Boreham Wood's 14 competitive matches.
- Both teams scored in 5 of Sutton's 12 league matches.
BetBugs · Both Teams to ScorelostYesEstimated chance60%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Sutton's home scoring is modest and Boreham Wood have been hard to break down away.
- Sutton average 1.33 home goals.
- Boreham Wood concede 0.83 goals per away match.
- Boreham Wood kept two clean sheets in six away matches.
- Sutton failed to score in two of six home matches.
BetBugs · Home Goals TotalwonSutton United under 1.5Estimated chance62%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Boreham Wood have been prolific away and Sutton concede regularly at home.
- Boreham Wood average 2.5 away goals.
- Boreham Wood scored 15 goals in six away matches.
- Sutton concede 1.5 goals per home match.
- Boreham Wood scored in all six away matches.
BetBugs · Away Goals TotalwonBoreham Wood over 1.5Estimated chance65%
Signal quality High · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Boreham Wood's away scoring record strongly points to them finding the net.
- Boreham Wood scored in all six away matches.
- Boreham Wood scored in all 14 competitive matches.
- Boreham Wood average 2.5 away goals.
- Sutton kept one clean sheet in six home matches.
BetBugs · Team to ScorewonBoreham Wood to scoreEstimated chance92%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Sutton usually score at home, and Boreham Wood concede in most matches.
- Sutton scored in four of six home matches.
- Boreham Wood kept two clean sheets in six away matches.
- Boreham Wood conceded in 12 of 14 competitive matches.
- Sutton average 1.33 home goals.
BetBugs · Team to ScorelostSutton United to scoreEstimated chance70%
Signal quality High · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Market price 1.25
The read
The first-half scoring rates from both sides point to at least one goal.
- Sutton home first half: 0.83 for, 0.67 against.
- Boreham Wood away first half: 0.67 for, 0.17 against.
- Combined first-half average is around 1.5 goals.
- Boreham Wood scored first-half goals in three of their last six matches.
BetBugs · 1st Half GoalslostOver 0.5 goals in 1st halfEstimated chance78%
Signal quality High · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Market price 1.22
The read
Boreham Wood rarely concede in the first half away, so both scoring early is unlikely.
- Boreham Wood away first half concedes 0.17 per game; Sutton home first half scores 0.83.
- Sutton overall first half: 0.5 for, 0.5 against.
- Boreham Wood first-half away: 0.67 for, 0.17 against.
- Boreham Wood conceded only one first-half goal in six away games.
BetBugs · Both Teams Score First HalfwonNoEstimated chance82%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Both teams' second-half records point to multiple goals after the break.
- Boreham Wood average 1.83 second-half goals away; Sutton concede 0.83 second-half goals at home.
- Sutton second-half home goals for 0.5, against 0.83.
- Combined second-half expected goals is around 2.3.
- Boreham Wood scored 11 second-half goals in their last six matches.
BetBugs · Goals Over Under Second HalfwonOver 1.5Estimated chance68%

Markets to Avoid

High-risk markets where price or context leaves too little cushion.

The 3.8 price requires 26.3%, above our 25.0% estimate.

Head-to-Head

1W · 2D · 2W

L1-0Boreham WoodvSutton UtdApr 25, 2026NAT

W3-4Sutton UtdvBoreham WoodSep 3, 2025NAT

D0-0Boreham WoodvSutton UtdApr 2, 2021NAT

L2-0Sutton UtdvBoreham WoodFeb 13, 2021NAT

D0-0Sutton UtdvBoreham WoodApr 18, 2020NAT

Sutton United: 2 clean sheetsBoreham Wood: 4 clean sheets2 goals/game avg

League Table

National League 2026/2027

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF-GA	Pts	Form
11	Sutton United	12	5	3	4	14-16	18	DLDDW
1	Boreham Wood Promotion - League Two	12	10	2	0	32-13	32	WWWWW

14pt gap between teamsBoreham Wood leads the league

Recent Form

Sutton United

D1-1Kidderminster HarriersOct 3NAT

L0-2TamworthSep 30NAT

D3-3Forest GreenSep 26NAT

D1-1FC Halifax TownSep 19NAT

W2-1EastleighSep 15NAT

L0-2ScunthorpeSep 12NAT

L0-3BarrowSep 5NAT

L0-2WealdstoneAug 31NAT

W1-0GatesheadAug 28NAT

W2-1HartlepoolAug 22NAT

W1-0AltrinchamAug 15NAT

W3-0WokingAug 8NAT

W3-2Southampton U21Aug 1FRI

W2-1Folkestone InvictaJul 28FRI

W2-0HorshamJul 25FRI

Boreham Wood

W3-1AltrinchamOct 3NAT

W3-1Kidderminster HarriersSep 29NAT

W3-0Solihull MoorsSep 26NAT

W4-1Harrogate TownSep 19NAT

W2-1ScunthorpeSep 16NAT

D1-1EastleighSep 12NAT

W2-1Newcastle United U21Sep 8NAT

W2-1CarlisleSep 5NAT

W3-2WorthingAug 31NAT

W2-1Boston UnitedAug 27NAT

W3-0Forest GreenAug 22NAT

W5-2Leeds United U21Aug 18NAT

W3-1FC Halifax TownAug 15NAT

D3-3TamworthAug 8NAT

W2-1Norwich City U21Jul 31FRI

Squad & Injuries

Sutton United

28 available

Attackers5

Midfielders12

Defenders9

Goalkeeper2

Boreham Wood

22 available

Attackers5

Midfielders8

Defenders7

Goalkeeper2

Quick Take

Context

BetBugs edges

Draw

No

Over 0.5 goals in 1st half

Over 2.5

Yes

Boreham Wood

Result5 of 5 landed

Goals5 of 9 landed

Markets to Avoid

Boreham Wood

Over 0.5 goals in 1st half

Head-to-Head

League Table

Recent Form

Sutton United

Boreham Wood

Squad & Injuries

Sutton United

Boreham Wood