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Predictions graded

Boreham Wood3Altrincham1

HT 0–1Sat 3 Oct 2026, 14:00 Predictions graded

Predictions13–381%

Edges3–443%

Quick Take

Pre-match view

Context last updated 30 Sep 2026, 22:08 · Europe/Bucharest

Unbeaten leaders Boreham Wood host third-placed Altrincham, who have won seven of eight and took the last meeting 3-1.

A home win is the likelier result, though not a comfortable one. Five quotes hold up: Altrincham level or ahead at half-time at 1.85, Altrincham to avoid defeat at 2.63, half-time level at 2.8, an Altrincham win at 5.0, and no first-half goals at 4.0. Boreham Wood's 1.45 sits shorter than the evidence justifies.

Context

Boreham Wood's 3-1 win over Kidderminster Harriers on 29 September left them unbeaten after 11 league games and seven points clear of the chasing pack, while Altrincham's 1-0 win at Gateshead was their seventh victory in eight. That combination makes this the strongest test of the leaders' start, because the visitors are the only side in the division on a comparable run. Both clubs played on 29 September, so the four-day turnaround is identical and does not favour either side.
- Boreham Wood beat Kidderminster Harriers 3-1 at home on 29 September 2026 to stay unbeaten after 11 National League games.
- Boreham Wood lead the table by seven points.
- Altrincham won 1-0 at Gateshead on 29 September 2026, their seventh win in eight matches, to move up to third.
ConfirmedSources checked 30 Sep 2026, 22:07 · Europe/Bucharest
Owen Evans, Altrincham's first-choice goalkeeper, was ruled out for 10-12 weeks with a calf injury in mid-September, and the club covered the gap by signing Harry Isted on a short-term deal on 29 September. Isted was released by Forest Green in the summer and had enquiries from Sutton, Carlisle, Worthing and Hartlepool, so this is a notable addition rather than a stop-gap. It leaves Neil Gibson choosing between Isted and the keepers already in the squad for a fixture where the smallest goalkeeping error is likely to be punished.
- Altrincham signed goalkeeper Harry Isted on a short-term contract on 29 September 2026 and put him in the squad for that night's game at Gateshead.
- Owen Evans, Altrincham's first-choice goalkeeper, was ruled out for 10-12 weeks with a calf injury in mid-September.
- Isted, 29, was released by Forest Green Rovers in the summer and drew enquiries from Sutton United, Carlisle United, Worthing and Hartlepool United.
ConfirmedSources checked 30 Sep 2026, 22:07 · Europe/Bucharest
Jay Bird scored twice in Boreham Wood's 3-1 win over Kidderminster Harriers on 29 September, a brace that took him to four goals in three games. For a side whose threat has been spread across the forward line, a striker arriving at a top-of-the-table fixture in that form gives Luke Garrard an obvious focal point. Altrincham have kept clean sheets in two of their last three league matches, so the run meets its sternest test yet.
- Jay Bird scored twice in Boreham Wood's 3-1 home win over Kidderminster Harriers on 29 September 2026.
- He has scored four goals in his last three games.
- J. Bird started 4 of the 5 recent team fixtures with available lineups.
ConfirmedSources checked 30 Sep 2026, 22:07 · Europe/Bucharest
Jimmy Knowles scored the only goal of Altrincham's 1-0 win at Gateshead on 29 September, running from deep and finishing across the goalkeeper. It was the seventh win in eight games for Neil Gibson's side and showed how much of their threat comes from Knowles breaking beyond the last line. He also missed a late penalty at 1-0, the kind of narrow margin that has kept these wins close and may be harder to protect at the division's strongest home side.
- Jimmy Knowles scored in the 21st minute of Altrincham's 1-0 win at Gateshead on 29 September 2026.
- Knowles had a late penalty saved at 1-0.
- J. Knowles started 4 of the 5 recent team fixtures with available lineups.
ConfirmedSources checked 30 Sep 2026, 22:07 · Europe/Bucharest

BetBugs edges

Compare BetBugs' chances with the market's.

Positive edges · 5

BetBugs probabilities

How likely BetBugs thought each outcome was.

Result2 of 5 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
The unbeaten leaders score three a game at home and face an Altrincham side that has lost three of five away while conceding nearly two per road match.
- Boreham Wood are 10W 2D 0L in 12 competitive matches, with 5W 1D 0L at home at 3.0 goals scored per home game.
- Altrincham's away record is 2W 0D 3L, scoring 1.0 and conceding 1.8 per away game.
- Boreham Wood's home games have all produced both teams scoring, but they still won five of six.
- Altrincham have won seven of their last eight, six by a single goal, and won the most recent meeting 3-1.
BetBugs · Match WinnerwonBoreham WoodEstimated chance53%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Market price 2.80
The read
Both teams have had several goalless first halves recently, making a level interval the single most likely outcome.
- Boreham Wood's recent home matches included three goalless first halves.
- Altrincham average 0.6 first-half goals away from home.
- Altrincham's away games average 1.6 first-half goals in total.
- Boreham Wood had three 0-0 half-time scores in their last six matches.
BetBugs · First Half WinnerlostDrawEstimated chance44%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Altrincham's away second-half scoring is very low, making a level second period a strong possibility.
- Altrincham average 0.4 second-half goals away from home.
- Boreham Wood's second-half home games average 2.33 goals in total.
- Boreham Wood's recent home games included three second halves without a goal for either side in one instance.
- Altrincham drew the second half in 3 of their last 6 matches.
BetBugs · Second Half WinnerlostDrawEstimated chance40%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
The unbeaten leaders score three a game at home and face an Altrincham side that has lost three of five away while conceding nearly two per road match. Altrincham arrive in strong form with a recent head-to-head win and a fit-again attacking threat, so an away victory is plausible.
- Boreham Wood are 10W 2D 0L in 12 competitive matches, with 5W 1D 0L at home at 3.0 goals scored per home game.
- Altrincham's away record is 2W 0D 3L, scoring 1.0 and conceding 1.8 per away game.
- Altrincham sit third with seven wins in their last eight, six coming by a single goal.
- They won the most recent meeting 3-1 in January 2026 and have seven points from the last four head-to-heads.
BetBugs · Double ChancewonBoreham Wood or AltrinchamEstimated chance77%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Boreham Wood's home first-half scoring is more than double Altrincham's away output, favouring an early home lead. Both teams have had several goalless first halves recently, making a level interval the single most likely outcome.
- Boreham Wood average 1.5 first-half goals at home and concede 0.67.
- Altrincham average 0.6 first-half goals away and concede 1.0.
- Boreham Wood's recent home matches included three goalless first halves.
- Altrincham average 0.6 first-half goals away from home.
BetBugs · Double Chance First HalflostBoreham Wood or DrawEstimated chance80%

Goals11 of 11 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Market price 1.36
The read
Boreham Wood's home matches have produced goals at both ends every time, and Altrincham's away games also average close to three.
- Boreham Wood's six home games average 4.5 total goals, with both teams scoring in all six.
- Altrincham's away games average 2.8 total goals, with both teams scoring in three of five.
- Boreham Wood have scored in all 12 competitive matches at 2.75 per game.
- Altrincham have scored in 9 of 11 competitive matches.
BetBugs · Goals Over/UnderwonOver 2.5Estimated chance67%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Market price 1.53
The read
Boreham Wood always concede at home while scoring themselves, and Altrincham have scored in three of five away games.
- Both teams scored in all six of Boreham Wood's home games.
- Both teams scored in three of Altrincham's five away games and eight of their 11 competitive matches.
- Boreham Wood have kept two clean sheets in 12; Altrincham none in five away games.
- Boreham Wood have scored in all 12 competitive matches.
BetBugs · Both Teams to ScorewonYesEstimated chance63%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Boreham Wood score heavily at home and face an away defence conceding close to two goals per game.
- Boreham Wood average 3.0 goals per home game.
- They have scored at least two in five of their six home matches.
- Altrincham concede 1.8 per away game.
- Jay Bird has four goals in his last three games.
BetBugs · Home Goals TotalwonBoreham Wood over 1.5Estimated chance73%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Altrincham's away goal output has been limited to about one per game against stronger home defences.
- Altrincham have scored 5 goals across five away matches.
- Their away average is 1.0 goal per game.
- Boreham Wood have kept two clean sheets in 12 competitive matches.
- Altrincham scored one goal in each of their last three away league matches before Gateshead.
BetBugs · Away Goals TotalwonAltrincham under 1.5Estimated chance63%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Boreham Wood have conceded in every home game this season, which makes an Altrincham goal the more likely outcome.
- Boreham Wood have conceded in all six home games at 1.5 per match.
- Altrincham have scored in three of five away games.
- Altrincham scored in five of their last six matches.
- Boreham Wood have only two clean sheets in 12 competitive matches.
BetBugs · Team to ScorewonAltrincham to scoreEstimated chance71%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Boreham Wood have scored in every match this season and their home scoring rate is high, so Altrincham are unlikely to shut them out.
- Boreham Wood have scored in each of their 12 competitive matches.
- Altrincham have kept no clean sheet in five away games.
- Boreham Wood average 3.0 goals per home game.
- Altrincham concede 1.8 per away game.
BetBugs · Team to ScorewonBoreham Wood to scoreEstimated chance87%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Boreham Wood have conceded in every home match, so any home win is more likely to come with an Altrincham goal than without.
- Boreham Wood have conceded in all six home games.
- Altrincham have scored in three of their five away games.
- Boreham Wood have only two clean sheets in 12 competitive matches.
- Altrincham have scored in five of their last six matches.
BetBugs · Home Win to NilwonNoEstimated chance84%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Boreham Wood's scoring record makes it very unlikely Altrincham win this match without conceding.
- Boreham Wood have scored in all 12 competitive matches.
- Altrincham have no away clean sheet in five away games.
- Boreham Wood average 3.0 goals per home game.
- Altrincham concede 1.8 per away game.
BetBugs · Away Win to NilwonNoEstimated chance92%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Both teams' first-half numbers point to at least one goal, though not overwhelmingly in Boreham Wood's recent home games.
- Boreham Wood home first halves average 2.17 goals in total.
- Altrincham away first halves average 1.6 goals in total.
- Three of Boreham Wood's last six matches were goalless at half-time.
- Altrincham scored first-half goals in 3 of their last 6 matches.
BetBugs · 1st Half GoalswonOver 0.5 goals in 1st halfEstimated chance72%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
One or both teams failing to score before half-time has been the norm in Boreham Wood's recent matches.
- Both teams scored in the first half in only 2 of Boreham Wood's last 6 matches.
- Altrincham average 0.6 first-half goals away from home.
- Boreham Wood's home first-half defence concedes 0.67 per game.
- Three of Boreham Wood's last six matches were goalless at half-time.
BetBugs · Both Teams Score First HalfwonNoEstimated chance70%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Boreham Wood's home second halves average well over two goals, so two or more after the break is a slight favourite.
- Boreham Wood home second halves average 2.33 goals in total.
- Altrincham away second halves average 1.2 goals in total.
- Boreham Wood scored two second-half goals in 3 of their last 6 matches.
- Altrincham scored both goals in the second half at Forest Green.
BetBugs · Goals Over Under Second HalfwonOver 1.5Estimated chance54%

Head-to-Head

2W · 1D · 2W

L3-1AltrinchamvBoreham WoodJan 24, 2026NAT

W3-1Boreham WoodvAltrinchamSep 13, 2025NAT

L0-1Boreham WoodvAltrinchamMar 16, 2024NAT

D1-1AltrinchamvBoreham WoodAug 19, 2023NAT

W0-2AltrinchamvBoreham WoodJan 28, 2023NAT

2.6 goals/game avg

League Table

National League 2026/2027

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF-GA	Pts	Form
1	Boreham Wood Promotion - League Two	10	8	2	0	26-11	26	WWWDW
8	Altrincham	10	6	0	4	15-15	18	WWWLW

8pt gap between teamsBoreham Wood leads the league

Recent Form

Boreham Wood

W3-0Solihull MoorsSep 26NAT

W4-1Harrogate TownSep 19NAT

W2-1ScunthorpeSep 16NAT

D1-1EastleighSep 12NAT

W2-1Newcastle United U21Sep 8NAT

W2-1CarlisleSep 5NAT

W3-2WorthingAug 31NAT

W2-1Boston UnitedAug 27NAT

W3-0Forest GreenAug 22NAT

W5-2Leeds United U21Aug 18NAT

W3-1FC Halifax TownAug 15NAT

D3-3TamworthAug 8NAT

W2-1Norwich City U21Jul 31FRI

W2-1Dagenham & RedbridgeJul 28FRI

W2-1Tottenham Hotspur U21Jul 21FRI

Altrincham

W3-0AFC HornchurchSep 26NAT

W2-1AFC FyldeSep 19NAT

W2-1HartlepoolSep 16NAT

L1-5WokingSep 12NAT

W2-1EastleighSep 4NAT

W2-1Forest GreenAug 31NAT

W2-1FC Halifax TownAug 28NAT

L0-1Boston UnitedAug 22NAT

L0-1Sutton UtdAug 15NAT

L1-3SouthendAug 8NAT

W1-0Manchester United U21Jul 31FRI

L2-5MacclesfieldJul 25FRI

D0-0ChorleyJul 21FRI

D2-2Colwyn BayJul 11FRI

W3-1GatesheadApr 25NAT

Squad & Injuries

Boreham Wood

22 available

Attackers6

Midfielders8

Defenders6

Goalkeeper2

Altrincham

25 available

Attackers9

Midfielders8

Defenders6

Goalkeeper2

Boreham Wood3Altrincham1

Quick Take

Context

BetBugs edges

Draw or Altrincham

Draw or Altrincham

Draw

Altrincham

Under 0.5 goals in 1st half

Over 2.5

Yes

BetBugs probabilities

Result2 of 5 landed

Goals11 of 11 landed

Head-to-Head

League Table

Recent Form

Boreham Wood

Altrincham

Squad & Injuries

Boreham Wood

Altrincham