HNK Gorica1Rudes Zagreb2

HT 0–1Fri 9 Oct 2026, 16:00 Predictions graded

Predictions6–843%

Edges0–20%

PossPossession 64%–36%ShotsShots 14–10On targetOn target 5–3CornersCorners 7–3

Quick Take

Pre-match view

Context last updated 6 Oct 2026, 09:22 · Europe/Bucharest

Bottom-two HNL relegation six-pointer: Gorica, one point above Rudeš, host the bottom club after their first league win of the season.

Gorica are the likelier winner, but 1.57 asks too much for a side with no home league win. The half-time draw at 2.3 and the full-time draw at 3.8 are the two quoted prices that offer something; Rudeš's four away defeats are the risk.

Context

Going into the break, Rudeš sat bottom of the HNL and three points behind the team immediately above them, while Gorica's 1-0 win at Istra 1961 on 19 September was their first of the season and moved them off the foot of the table. The two clubs are separated by a single place, so this is the round's most direct relegation six-pointer and the fixture with the most immediate table consequence. Neither side has produced a sustained run this season, so the three-week pause has reset both rather than rewarded either.
- Gorica's 1-0 win at Istra 1961 on 19 September was their first league win of the season and lifted them above Rudeš.
- Rudeš went into the international break bottom of the HNL, three points behind the team immediately above them.
- Rudeš and Gorica are the two sides fighting to avoid last place, with the clubs separated by a single position.
ConfirmedSources checked 6 Oct 2026, 09:20 · Europe/Bucharest
Kučiš and Kavelj operate in midfield, Moustapha in defence and Wisdom in attack, so the four absences cut through the middle, back and front of the squad rather than one line. All are listed only as unavailable through injury with no stated return, which leaves the composition of Gorica's starting eleven and the make-up of the bench open. Gorica already carry a thin attacking output, so the onus falls on the players who remain to take on more minutes in a match the club will expect to control at home.
- Stjepan Kučiš, Hadji Issa Moustapha, Ante Kavelj and Sule Wisdom Aondowase are listed as unavailable through injury.
- The four absences span midfield, defence and attack rather than a single unit.
- No return date is given for any of the four.
ReportedSources checked 6 Oct 2026, 09:20 · Europe/BucharestFotMob match centre, Rudeš vs HNK Goricawww.fotmob.com · 6 Oct 2026
Mario Carević remains HNK Gorica's head coach through the international break after the club backed him following a narrow defeat at Dinamo Zagreb in early September. His team responded by eliminating Uskok Klis in the Croatian Cup and then taking their first league win of the season, 1-0 at Istra 1961. That sequence matters here because Gorica now host a bottom-two fixture that offers the clearest chance to keep collecting points. His position looked less secure a month ago, but nothing since indicates a change on the bench.
- Carević is the head coach at HNK Gorica.
- After a narrow league defeat at Dinamo Zagreb in early September, Gorica's leadership kept him in place and the team then eliminated Uskok Klis from the Croatian Cup.
- Gorica followed that with a first league win of the season, 1-0 at Istra 1961 on 19 September.
ConfirmedSources checked 6 Oct 2026, 09:20 · Europe/Bucharest
Rudeš brought in five players in the September window, four on loan and one permanent, giving the club a substantially different squad to the one that opened the season. They arrive after a run in which Rudeš shipped six goals at Osijek and four at Dinamo Zagreb, so the additions are aimed squarely at a defence and midfield that had been overrun. Several of the deals were completed near the close of the window, which makes integration the open question rather than availability. The new options give the coaching staff levers that were not there in the opening rounds.
- Rudeš completed loan deals for Saad El Haddad from Venezia, Marko Zebić from Dinamo Zagreb, Cheick Diabate from Samsunspor and Paul Vranjicic from Uskok Klis.
- Rudeš also signed Filip Taraba from Istra 1961 for €200k.
- The additions span centre-back, midfield and attack and arrived after a start in which Rudeš conceded heavily and sat bottom of the table.
ReportedSources checked 6 Oct 2026, 09:20 · Europe/BucharestFlashscore team profile, Rudešwww.flashscore.com · 6 Oct 2026

BetBugs edges

Compare BetBugs' chances with the market's.

BetBugs probabilities

How likely BetBugs thought each outcome was.

Result0 of 5 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Gorica sit a place above Rudes after their first league win of the season, and Rudes have taken nothing on the road while conceding heavily.
- Gorica have 5 points from 8 league games; Rudes have 4.
- Rudes have lost all four away league matches, conceding 11 goals.
- Gorica have won four of the last five head-to-head meetings, including a 6-0 cup win.
- Gorica have drawn two and lost two of their four home league games, scoring three.
BetBugs · Match WinnerlostHNK GoricaEstimated chance42%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Market price 2.30
The read
Gorica never score before the break and Rudes have often been level at half-time, making a tied opening period the most likely outcome.
- Gorica have not scored a first-half goal in eight league matches.
- Gorica were level at half-time in three of their last six matches.
- Rudes were level at half-time in three of their last six matches.
- Rudes average 0.55 first-half goals per competitive match.
BetBugs · First Half WinnerlostDrawEstimated chance53%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Gorica do their scoring after the break while Rudes concede regularly in second halves, which favours the home side in that period.
- Gorica score 0.63 and concede 0.5 second-half goals per league game.
- Rudes concede 1.18 second-half goals per competitive match.
- Rudes have conceded in four of their last five league matches.
BetBugs · Second Half WinnerlostHNK GoricaEstimated chance36%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Gorica sit a place above Rudes after their first league win of the season, and Rudes have taken nothing on the road while conceding heavily. Both sides are bottom-two teams with limited scoring, and Gorica's home league games have repeatedly finished level.
- Gorica have 5 points from 8 league games; Rudes have 4.
- Rudes have lost all four away league matches, conceding 11 goals.
- Gorica have drawn two of their four home league matches.
- Gorica have scored five goals in eight league games and scored once or fewer in five of their last six.
BetBugs · Double ChancelostHNK Gorica or DrawEstimated chance72%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Rudes concede early goals and half-time leads against them are common, so Gorica can edge the opening period even with their own slow starts. Gorica never score before the break and Rudes have often been level at half-time, making a tied opening period the most likely outcome.
- Gorica have not scored a first-half goal in any of their eight league matches.
- Rudes have conceded 1.27 first-half goals per competitive match.
- Gorica have not scored a first-half goal in eight league matches.
- Gorica were level at half-time in three of their last six matches.
BetBugs · Double Chance First HalflostHNK Gorica or DrawEstimated chance77%

Goals3 of 6 landed

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Gorica's matches are low-scoring, and their weak attack makes a small number of goals the likeliest shape of this game.
- Gorica's eight league matches have produced 17 goals, 5 scored and 12 conceded.
- Gorica's four home league games have produced nine goals.
- Gorica have scored once or fewer in five of their last six matches.
- Only two of Gorica's last six matches went above 2.5 goals.
BetBugs · Goals Over/UnderlostUnder 2.5Estimated chance53%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Gorica's attack is the weakest part of this fixture and they have been blanked repeatedly, which limits how often both sides score.
- Gorica have scored five goals in eight league games.
- Gorica have been shut out in three of their last six matches.
- Rudes have failed to score in two of their last six matches.
- Gorica kept two clean sheets in their last six league matches.
BetBugs · Both Teams to ScorelostNoEstimated chance54%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Gorica's habit of conceding before half-time gives the opening period a good chance of producing at least one goal.
- Gorica have conceded eight first-half goals in eight league games.
- Gorica conceded a first-half goal in three of their last six matches.
- Rudes have scored first-half goals in two of their last six matches.
- Rudes have conceded 1.27 first-half goals per competitive match.
BetBugs · 1st Half GoalswonOver 0.5 goals in 1st halfEstimated chance57%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Rudes' second halves are consistently high-scoring at both ends, which lifts the chance of two or more goals after the break.
- Rudes' last six second halves produced 16 goals.
- All of Rudes' last six matches produced at least two second-half goals.
- Rudes' second halves average 1.18 goals for and 1.18 against per competitive match.
- Gorica's last six second halves produced seven goals.
BetBugs · Goals Over Under Second HalfwonOver 1.5Estimated chance54%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Gorica's scoring output is the weakest in the league, keeping them to one goal or fewer in most recent matches.
- Gorica average 0.75 goals in home league games.
- Gorica have scored five goals in eight league matches.
- Gorica have scored once or fewer in five of their last six matches.
BetBugs · Home Goals TotalwonHNK Gorica under 1.5Estimated chance62%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Rudes have produced very little on the road this season, keeping their away goal count low in most matches.
- Rudes have scored three goals in four away league matches.
- Rudes' away league record is four defeats with 11 goals conceded.
- Gorica kept two clean sheets in their last six league matches.
BetBugs · Away Goals TotallostRudes Zagreb under 1.5Estimated chance67%

Match stats3 of 3 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Both teams concede far more corners than they win, so the combined corner count has cleared this line in most recent matches.
- Gorica's matches average 8.4 total corners, 2.6 for and 5.75 against.
- Rudes' matches average 10.1 total corners, 3.5 for and 6.6 against.
- Four of Gorica's last six and four of Rudes' last five matches produced more than 6.5 corners.
BetBugs · Corners Over/UnderwonOver 6.5Estimated chance70%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Both sides concede a high volume of shots, and total shot counts in their matches have almost always cleared this line.
- Gorica's league matches average 26.6 total shots (9.9 for, 16.8 against).
- Rudes' matches average 26.5 total shots (9.1 for, 17.4 against).
- Five of Gorica's last six and all five of Rudes' recent tracked matches reached at least 20 total shots.
BetBugs · Shots Over/UnderwonOver 19.5Estimated chance80%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Both defences face a steady stream of accurate attempts, so the combined on-target count has regularly cleared this line.
- Gorica's league matches average 9.25 shots on target combined.
- Rudes' matches average 9.25 shots on target combined.
- Five of Gorica's last six and all five of Rudes' recent tracked matches had more than 5.5 shots on target combined.
BetBugs · Shots on Target Over/UnderwonOver 5.5Estimated chance78%