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Predictions graded

Rudes Zagreb4Lokomotiva Zagreb1

HT 1–1Fri 21 Aug 2026, 18:00 Predictions graded

Predictions4–736%

Edges4–450%

PossPossession 58%–42%ShotsShots 14–7On targetOn target 6–1CornersCorners 3–5

Quick Take

Pre-match view

Context last updated 20 Aug 2026, 15:44 · Europe/Bucharest

Lokomotiva are clear favorites based on form and H2H, but the odds offer no value.

The best betting edge is over 1.5 first-half goals at 2.15, with an 8.5-point edge due to Rudeš's early defensive lapses.

Context

Rudeš lost the second half in all three HNL matches this season (0-2, 0-2, 1-2).
- They conceded 12 goals overall, with 8 coming after the break.
- Lokomotiva have won the second half in two of their last three HNL matches.
Last four H2H: Lokomotiva 2W, 2D, Rudeš 0W.
- Rudeš scored only once in the first three of those meetings.
- The last H2H ended 3-3, showing Rudeš can score but still did not win.
The HNL fixture page confirms the match is at Velika Gorica on 21 August.
- Rudeš's usual home ground is in Zagreb, so this is a neutral or unfamiliar setting.
- No other venue-related factors are reported.

BetBugs edges

Compare BetBugs' chances with the market's.

Positive edges · 1

Other edges · 7

The published chance does not exceed the market's implied chance.

Match WinnerlostUncertainty band: Strong lean

Lokomotiva Zagreb

1.43fair 1.54

BetBugs 65% · Market 69.9%

0.0ppshort

Lokomotiva's superior form and H2H dominance make them clear favorites, but the odds are slightly short of our estimate, leaving no value.

Double ChancelostUncertainty band: Strong lean

Draw or Lokomotiva Zagreb

1.13fair 1.18

BetBugs 85% · Market 88.5%

−3.5ppshort

Rudes' poor form and H2H record make a home win unlikely, but the market has priced this in heavily.

1 St Half ResultlostUncertainty band: Near coin-flip

Lokomotiva Zagreb

1.88fair 2.22

BetBugs 45% · Market 53.2%

0.0ppshort

Lokomotiva's stronger first-half performances and Rudes' early deficits favor an away lead at the break, but the odds are too short.

HT/FTlostUncertainty band: Near coin-flip

Lokomotiva Zagreb at half-time / Lokomotiva Zagreb at full-time

2.10fair 2.50

BetBugs 40% · Market 47.6%

−7.6ppshort

Lokomotiva's ability to control games from the start and Rudes' poor first halves support a HT/FT away double, but the price is not generous.

BetBugs probabilities

How likely BetBugs thought each outcome was.

Result0 of 5 landed

Signal quality High · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Lokomotiva's superior form and H2H dominance make them clear favorites.
- Rudes have lost all 3 HNL matches this season, conceding 12 goals.
- Lokomotiva have won 2 of their last 3 HNL matches.
- Lokomotiva are unbeaten in the last 4 H2H meetings (2W, 2D).
BetBugs · Match WinnerlostLokomotiva ZagrebEstimated chance65%
Signal quality High · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Rudes' poor form and H2H record make a home win unlikely.
- Rudes have not won any of their last 3 HNL matches.
- Lokomotiva have avoided defeat in 4 of their last 5 HNL matches.
- H2H: Rudes have not beaten Lokomotiva in the last 4 meetings.
BetBugs · Double ChancelostDraw or Lokomotiva ZagrebEstimated chance85%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Lokomotiva's stronger first-half performances and Rudes' early deficits favor an away lead at the break.
- Lokomotiva led at halftime in 2 of their last 3 HNL matches.
- Rudes trailed at halftime in all 3 HNL matches this season.
- Lokomotiva's first-half goal difference is +0.5 per game; Rudes' is 0.
BetBugs · First Half WinnerlostLokomotiva ZagrebEstimated chance45%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Rudes' second-half collapses and Lokomotiva's late strength point to an away second-half win.
- Rudes have lost the second half in all 3 HNL matches (0-2, 0-2, 1-2).
- Lokomotiva have won the second half in 2 of their last 3 HNL matches.
- Rudes' second-half goal difference is -1.3 per game.
BetBugs · Second Half WinnerlostLokomotiva ZagrebEstimated chance50%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Lokomotiva's ability to control games from the start and Rudes' poor first halves support a HT/FT away double.
- Lokomotiva led at halftime and won full time in 2 of their last 3 HNL matches.
- Rudes have not led at halftime in any HNL match this season.
- H2H: Lokomotiva won both halves in the 3-0 win in March 2024.
BetBugs · Ht Ft DoublelostLokomotiva Zagreb/Lokomotiva ZagrebEstimated chance40%

Goals4 of 4 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Both teams have been involved in high-scoring games, and Rudes' defense is leaky.
- Rudes' HNL matches average 4.7 total goals (14 goals in 3 games).
- Lokomotiva's HNL matches average 3.3 total goals (10 goals in 3 games).
- Last H2H meeting ended 3-3.
BetBugs · Goals Over/UnderwonOver 2.5Estimated chance60%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Both teams have shown ability to score, and Rudes' defense is vulnerable.
- Rudes have scored in 2 of their 3 HNL matches.
- Lokomotiva have scored in 2 of their 3 HNL matches.
- Rudes have conceded in every HNL match this season.
BetBugs · Both Teams to ScorewonYesEstimated chance55%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Rudes' early defensive lapses and Lokomotiva's first-half scoring suggest goals before halftime.
- Rudes' first halves average 1.8 total goals (0.9 for, 0.9 against).
- Lokomotiva's first halves average 1.1 total goals (0.8 for, 0.3 against).
- Rudes have conceded first-half goals in all 3 HNL matches.
BetBugs · 1st Half GoalswonOver 1.5 goals in 1st halfEstimated chance55%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Rudes' second-half collapses and Lokomotiva's late scoring make over 1.5 second-half goals likely.
- Rudes' second halves average 2.9 total goals (0.8 for, 2.1 against).
- Lokomotiva's second halves average 2.2 total goals (0.8 for, 1.4 against).
- Rudes have conceded 8 second-half goals in 3 HNL matches.
BetBugs · Goals Over Under Second HalfwonOver 1.5Estimated chance55%

Match stats0 of 2 landed

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Both teams' corner averages suggest a total around 9, making over 8.5 a coin flip.
- Lokomotiva average 5.4 corners per game; Rudes average 2.7 corners per game.
- Lokomotiva's matches average 9.4 total corners (based on available data).
- Rudes' matches average 9.7 total corners (based on available data).
BetBugs · Corners Over/UnderlostOver 8.5Estimated chance50%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
The combined card averages hover around the line, making over 4.5 a marginal call.
- Rudes average 1.7 yellow cards per game; Lokomotiva average 3.0 yellow cards per game.
- Combined average yellow cards: 4.7 per game.
- Rudes have received a red card in 1 of 3 HNL matches.
BetBugs · Cards Over/UnderlostOver 4.5Estimated chance50%

Markets to Avoid

High-risk markets where price or context leaves too little cushion.

Implied 70% leaves no cushion vs our 65% estimate; price already reflects the directional read.

Head-to-Head

1W · 2D · 2W

D3-3RudesvNK Lokomotiva ZagrebMay 18, 2024HNL

L3-0NK Lokomotiva ZagrebvRudesMar 9, 2024HNL

D0-0RudesvNK Lokomotiva ZagrebDec 3, 2023HNL

L1-0NK Lokomotiva ZagrebvRudesSep 15, 2023HNL

W1-2RudesvNK Lokomotiva ZagrebApr 20, 2019HNL

Lokomotiva Zagreb: 3 clean sheets2.6 goals/game avg

League Table

HNL 2026/2027

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF-GA	Pts	Form
10	Rudes Zagreb Relegation - Prva NL	3	0	0	3	2-12	0	LLL
4	Lokomotiva Zagreb Promotion - Conference League (Qualification)	3	2	0	1	6-4	6	LWW

6pt gap between teamsRudes Zagreb in relegation zone

Recent Form

Rudes Zagreb

L0-4Dinamo ZagrebAug 14HNL

L1-6NK OsijekAug 8HNL

L1-2HNK RijekaAug 2HNL

D1-1GöztepeJul 26FRI

L0-5Shakhtar DonetskJul 19FRI

W3-1Olimpija LjubljanaJul 5FRI

L3-4CukarickiJul 1FRI

W3-1SesveteMay 29FIR

W3-0DugopoljeMay 23FIR

L2-3HNK CibaliaMay 15FIR

W3-0Karlovac 1919May 8FIR

D1-1Dubrava ZagrebMay 2FIR

W2-0Croatia ZmijavciApr 26FIR

W2-1HrvaceApr 19FIR

D1-1OpatijaApr 10FIR

Lokomotiva Zagreb

L0-1NK OsijekAug 15HNL

W3-1HNK GoricaAug 8HNL

W3-2Istra 1961Aug 1HNL

W4-0Sturm Graz IIJul 25FRI

D0-0KarpatyJul 17FRI

W3-1Epitsentr DunayivtsiJul 13FRI

D2-2FK PartizanJul 10FRI

W3-1BravoJul 4FRI

W2-1Vllaznia ShkodërJul 1FRI

W2-1NK VarazdinJun 27FRI

D0-0Dinamo ZagrebMay 23HNL

D1-1HNK Hajduk SplitMay 16HNL

D1-1NK VarazdinMay 9HNL

L0-3HNK RijekaMay 3HNL

D0-0NK OsijekApr 25HNL

Squad & Injuries

Rudes Zagreb

41 available

Attackers11

Midfielders14

Defenders12

Goalkeeper4

Lokomotiva Zagreb

36 available

Attackers6

Midfielders15

Defenders13

Goalkeeper2

Quick Take

Context

BetBugs edges

Over 1.5

Lokomotiva Zagreb

Draw or Lokomotiva Zagreb

Lokomotiva Zagreb

Lokomotiva Zagreb at half-time / Lokomotiva Zagreb at full-time

Over 2.5

Yes

Over 1.5

Result0 of 5 landed

Goals4 of 4 landed

Match stats0 of 2 landed

Markets to Avoid

Lokomotiva Zagreb

Draw or Lokomotiva Zagreb

Head-to-Head

League Table

Recent Form

Rudes Zagreb

Lokomotiva Zagreb

Squad & Injuries

Rudes Zagreb

Lokomotiva Zagreb