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Predictions graded

Cuba2St Kitts and Nevis2

HT 1–1Mon 5 Oct 2026, 21:00 Predictions graded

Predictions11–473%

Edges3–260%

PossPossession 52%–48%ShotsShots 25–13On targetOn target 6–5CornersCorners 5–5

Quick Take

Pre-match view

Context last updated 4 Oct 2026, 18:33 · Europe/Bucharest

Cuba and St Kitts meet again three days after a 3-3 draw in which Cuba led 3-1 with ten minutes left.

Cuba are the likelier winners, but 1.67 asks more than their form supports. Over 2.5 goals at 1.50 and at least one first-half goal at 1.22 are the two priced options with a value lean; both teams to score at 1.57 is about fair.

Context

These teams opened their League B Group C double-header on October 2 with a 3-3 draw, so the rematch comes with almost no turnaround for squad rotation or tactical reset. Cuba moved 3-1 ahead and still conceded in the 82nd and 88th minutes, which is the clearest warning against treating the first meeting as a settled Cuba win. What one match cannot resolve is whether that late lapse is a repeatable weakness or a single collapse, and the immediate return gives both sides a direct chance to answer it.
- The sides drew 3-3 in League B Group C on October 2 at the Hasely Crawford Stadium in Port of Spain, Trinidad and Tobago.
- Cuba led 3-1 before St Kitts scored in the 82nd and 88th minutes to level.
- Cuba had 22 shots to St Kitts' 16, but both sides registered seven shots on target and four goalkeeper saves.
- St Kitts received three yellow cards to Cuba's one.
ConfirmedSources checked 4 Oct 2026, 18:31 · Europe/BucharestBBC Sport live match coveragewww.bbc.com · 2 Oct 2026
Perez scored from midfield in the 29th and 51st minutes as Cuba built a 3-1 lead, so he is the player St Kitts' defence has the freshest evidence of failing to contain. Because the rematch follows within three days, both teams carry the same personnel and the same recent memory into it. Whether the brace reflects a durable attacking role or one productive afternoon against a defence that then tightened is unresolved, so it stays a positional note rather than a fixed edge.
- Yunior Perez scored for Cuba in the 29th and 51st minutes of the October 2 draw.
- M. Camejo provided the assist for Cuba's 51st-minute goal.
ConfirmedSources checked 4 Oct 2026, 18:31 · Europe/BucharestBBC Sport live match coveragewww.bbc.com · 2 Oct 2026
The four-goal win shows what Cuba can do to this opponent in a home fixture, but it came in a November 2024 pair of matches in which the home side won both games, and the sides drew 3-3 in October 2026 after Cuba had built a 3-1 lead. The 4-0 is therefore the high end of the series rather than a dependable guide to the rematch, where Cuba are again the listed home side.
- Cuba 4-0 St Kitts and Nevis, CONCACAF Nations League, November 18, 2024 — one of three head-to-head meetings recorded between November 2024 and October 2026.
Cuba's home matches in this window have ended in a win or a defeat without exception, the most recent being a 2-0 win over Bonaire on September 28, 2026. The same split contains the 4-0 win over St Kitts in November 2024 but also the two home defeats that keep this from being a straightforward home edge. St Kitts' 3-3 comeback on October 2 came with Cuba listed as the away side, so it does not count against this home sample, though it does show Cuba can be caught from 3-1 ahead.
- Cuba home competitive record in the tracked window (November 18, 2024 – September 28, 2026): 5 matches, 3 wins, 0 draws, 2 defeats, 3 clean sheets.

BetBugs edges

Compare BetBugs' chances with the market's.

Positive edges · 3

BetBugs probabilities

How likely BetBugs thought each outcome was.

Result2 of 5 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Market price 1.67
The read
Cuba's strong home scoring and St Kitts' poor away defence point to a home win.
- Cuba home: 3W 0D 2L in 5, scoring 2.2 and conceding 0.8 per game
- St Kitts away: 1W 0D 2L in 3, conceding 3.67 per game
- Cuba won the last home meeting 4-0 in November 2024
BetBugs · Match WinnerlostCubaEstimated chance55%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Market price 2.05
The read
Cuba's strong first-half home numbers and St Kitts' away first-half leaks favour a Cuba lead.
- Cuba home first half: 1.2 GF, 0.4 GA
- St Kitts away first half: 1.0 GF, 1.67 GA
- Recent H2H half-time: Cuba 2-1 St Kitts
BetBugs · First Half WinnerlostCubaEstimated chance45%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
St Kitts' poor away second-half record suggests Cuba can win the second half.
- Cuba home second half: 1.0 GF, 0.4 GA
- St Kitts away second half: 0.33 GF, 2.0 GA
- Recent H2H second half: Cuba 1-2 St Kitts
BetBugs · Second Half WinnerlostCubaEstimated chance48%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Cuba's strong home scoring and St Kitts' poor away defence point to a home win. The quick rematch and St Kitts' late fightback make a draw plausible.
- Cuba home: 3W 0D 2L in 5, scoring 2.2 and conceding 0.8 per game
- St Kitts away: 1W 0D 2L in 3, conceding 3.67 per game
- The sides drew 3-3 on October 2 in the same fixture
- Cuba home: 0 draws in 5; St Kitts away: 0 draws in 3
BetBugs · Double ChancewonCuba or DrawEstimated chance80%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Cuba's strong first-half home numbers and St Kitts' away first-half leaks favour a Cuba lead. Both teams can score early, but a tight opening half is possible.
- Cuba home first half: 1.2 GF, 0.4 GA
- St Kitts away first half: 1.0 GF, 1.67 GA
BetBugs · Double Chance First HalfwonCuba or DrawEstimated chance78%

Goals7 of 8 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Market price 1.50
The read
Both defences have conceded goals regularly and the recent meeting was high-scoring.
- Recent H2H produced six goals on October 2
- Cuba home average total goals: 3.0; St Kitts away average total: 5.0
- Cuba home 2.2 GF, St Kitts away 3.67 GA
BetBugs · Goals Over/UnderwonOver 2.5Estimated chance75%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Market price 1.57
The read
Both teams have scored regularly in recent matches.
- St Kitts scored in 5 of last 6 competitive matches
- Cuba scored in all of last 6 competitive matches
- Recent H2H both scored (3-3)
BetBugs · Both Teams to ScorewonYesEstimated chance65%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Cuba's home scoring and St Kitts' away defence favour at least two Cuba goals.
- Cuba home average 2.2 goals scored
- St Kitts away average 3.67 goals conceded
- Cuba scored 2+ in at least three home matches
BetBugs · Home Goals TotalwonCuba over 1.5Estimated chance70%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
St Kitts' away scoring record suggests they may be limited to one goal or fewer.
- St Kitts away average 1.33 goals scored
- Cuba home average 0.8 goals conceded
- St Kitts failed to score in one of three away matches
BetBugs · Away Goals TotallostSt Kitts and Nevis under 1.5Estimated chance60%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
St Kitts' recent scoring makes it likely Cuba will concede.
- St Kitts scored in 2 of 3 away matches
- Cuba conceded in both home losses
- Recent H2H St Kitts scored 3
BetBugs · Team to ScorewonSt Kitts and Nevis to scoreEstimated chance55%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
St Kitts have conceded heavily away and Cuba score well at home.
- St Kitts away: 0 clean sheets in 3
- St Kitts away average 3.67 goals conceded
- Cuba home average 2.2 goals scored
BetBugs · Team to ScorewonCuba to scoreEstimated chance90%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Market price 1.22
The read
Both teams' first-half numbers point to at least one goal before the break.
- Cuba home first half: 1.2 GF, 0.4 GA
- St Kitts away first half: 1.0 GF, 1.67 GA
- Recent H2H first half had 3 goals
BetBugs · 1st Half GoalswonOver 0.5 goals in 1st halfEstimated chance85%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Second-half goal averages and the recent comeback suggest at least two goals after the break.
- Cuba home second half total: 1.4 goals
- St Kitts away second half total: 2.33 goals
- Recent H2H second half had 3 goals
BetBugs · Goals Over Under Second HalfwonOver 1.5Estimated chance65%

Match stats2 of 2 landed

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
The recent match and small samples suggest corners may stay below 10.5.
- Recent H2H total corners: 7
- Cuba home corners average 7.0
- St Kitts away corners average 4.5
BetBugs · Corners Over/UnderwonUnder 10.5Estimated chance55%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Recent matches and Cuba's home card numbers point to over 3.5 cards.
- Cuba home yellow cards: 2.0, opponent 4.33
- St Kitts away yellow cards: 0.5, opponent 1.0
- Recent H2H total yellow cards: 4
BetBugs · Cards Over/UnderwonOver 3.5Estimated chance70%

Head-to-Head

1W · 1D · 1W

D3-3St. Kitts and NevisvCubaOct 2, 2026CON

W4-0CubavSt. Kitts and NevisNov 18, 2024CON

L2-1St. Kitts and NevisvCubaNov 14, 2024CON

4.3 goals/game avg

Recent Form

Cuba

D3-3St. Kitts and NevisOct 2CON

W2-0BonaireSep 28CON

W3-0GrenadaSep 25CON

D1-1Dominican RepublicMar 29CON

D2-2MartiniqueMar 26CON

W2-0MartiniqueNov 16CON

W3-0St. LuciaNov 12CON

L0-2GrenadaOct 11FRI

L0-1St. Vincent / GrenadinesOct 9FRI

L0-7St. Vincent / GrenadinesOct 5FRI

L1-2BermudaJun 10WOR

W1-0Antigua and BarbudaJun 6WOR

L0-4Trinidad and TobagoMar 25CON

L1-2Trinidad and TobagoMar 21CON

W4-0St. Kitts and NevisNov 18CON

St Kitts and Nevis

D3-3CubaOct 2CON

W3-0GrenadaSep 29CON

W2-1BonaireSep 26CON

W4-2Solomon IslandsMar 30FIF

L0-4IndonesiaMar 27FIF

L2-6BelizeNov 18CON

D0-0Sint MaartenNov 12CON

W2-1Saint MartinOct 5FRI

W5-0Saint MartinOct 4FRI

L2-3GrenadaJun 10WOR

L2-6Trinidad and TobagoJun 6WOR

L1-4Saint MartinMay 25FRI

L0-3St. Vincent / GrenadinesMay 25FRI

W4-2AnguillaMay 24FRI

L1-3St. Vincent / GrenadinesMay 20FRI

Squad & Injuries

Cuba

21 available

Attackers5

Midfielders8

Defenders5

Goalkeeper3

St Kitts and Nevis

26 available

Attackers5

Midfielders11

Defenders7

Goalkeeper3

Quick Take

Context

BetBugs edges

Over 2.5

Over 0.5 goals in 1st half

Yes

Cuba

Cuba

Result2 of 5 landed

Goals7 of 8 landed

Match stats2 of 2 landed

Head-to-Head

Recent Form

Cuba

St Kitts and Nevis

Squad & Injuries

Cuba

St Kitts and Nevis