Puerto Nuevo Campana1JJ Urquiza4

HT 0–2Sun 4 Oct 2026, 18:00 Predictions graded

Predictions5–936%

Edges0–30%

Quick Take

Pre-match view

Context last updated 3 Oct 2026, 01:15 · Europe/Bucharest

Two low-scoring Primera C sides meet with Puerto Nuevo's home form (3W 5D 7L) against Urquiza's habit of drawing away, nine of 15 away league games.

The likeliest picture is a tight match that at least one side fails to score in. Both teams to score – No at 1.5 is the only reviewed price that offers anything; Under 2.5 goals at 1.36 gives nothing back, and the draw at 2.88 carries no clear advantage.

Context

The five supplied meetings between these clubs run from 27 March 2024 to 6 June 2026, and four of the five were won by the visiting team.
Urquiza won three of the last five meetings and both of the two played at Puerto Nuevo's ground, which is the main counterweight to their poor away season. Puerto Nuevo's 1-0 win at Urquiza on 6 June 2026 is the recent evidence pointing the other way, and four of the five meetings were won by the visiting side. No single game in the series produced more than three goals.
- 8 March 2025: Puerto Nuevo 1-2 JJ Urquiza, Primera C
- 27 March 2024: Puerto Nuevo 0-1 JJ Urquiza, Primera C
- 6 June 2026: JJ Urquiza 0-1 Puerto Nuevo, Primera C
- Five supplied meetings from 27 March 2024 to 6 June 2026, 10 goals in total
Ninth place and 38 points from 30 games have been built largely on the road, where Puerto Nuevo have six wins, six draws and three defeats from 15.
Only three home wins in 15 attempts, with 22 goals conceded at home, is the clearest weakness in a side sitting ninth. It frames a fixture against visitors who have drawn nine of their 15 away league games and lost only five. The counterweight is the away side's own record: just one win in 15 away league games this season.
- Primera C 2026 table (fetched 2 October 2026): Puerto Nuevo 9th, 38 points from 30 games, 9W 11D 10L
- Home league record: 15 games, 3W 5D 7L, 14 goals scored, 22 conceded
- Away league record: 15 games, 6W 6D 3L, 13 scored, 9 conceded
Three wins and seven draws in those 15 tracked matches show how rarely Urquiza's games are separated.
Nine clean sheets in 15 matches, with only six goals conceded, is a large part of why this fixture looks likely to stay low-scoring. The same window shows just five goals scored and only three wins, so the shutouts have rarely turned into victories. Both figures come from a 15-match competitive sample and are a short-run picture rather than a settled level.
- Tracked window 13 June to 28 September 2026: 15 competitive matches, 3W 7D 5L
- Five goals scored and six conceded; nine clean sheets in 15 matches
- Both teams scored in three of those 15 matches
Puerto Nuevo's own scoring is split almost evenly between halves, 0.40 per game before the break and 0.53 after it.
One goal conceded before half-time across the whole window, against a rate of a goal a game afterwards, is the sharpest split in Puerto Nuevo's record. It suggests most of the damage against them has arrived in the second half of matches, which matters in a fixture expected to stay tight. The sample is 15 matches, so the gap should be read as a short-run pattern.
- 15 tracked matches, 14 June to 25 September 2026: 0.40 first-half goals scored and 0.07 conceded per game
- Same window: 0.53 second-half goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game
- Five clean sheets across those 15 matches

BetBugs edges

Compare BetBugs' chances with the market's.

Positive edges · 2

Other edges · 1

The published chance does not exceed the market's implied chance.

Goals Over/UnderlostUncertainty band: Strong lean

Under 2.5

1.36fair 1.37

BetBugs 73% · Market 73.5%

−0.5ppshort

Both attacks are among the weakest in the division, so a third goal in the match is unlikely.

BetBugs probabilities

How likely BetBugs thought each outcome was.

Result1 of 5 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Market price 2.88
The read
Both sides score rarely and Urquiza's away matches finish level far more often than not.
- JJ Urquiza have drawn 9 of 15 away league games this season and 14 of 30 overall
- Puerto Nuevo have drawn 11 of 30 league games
- Urquiza have scored 15 and conceded 25 in 30 league games, a very low-scoring record
- The last five head-to-head meetings produced 10 goals in total
BetBugs · Match WinnerlostDrawEstimated chance36%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
First halves in this fixture look extremely low-scoring, which makes a level half-time score the most likely outcome.
- Urquiza's seven tracked away matches contain no first-half goals for them
- Puerto Nuevo's home split shows 0.11 first-half goals conceded per game
- Puerto Nuevo's 15 tracked matches average 0.40 first-half goals for and 0.07 against
BetBugs · First Half WinnerlostDrawEstimated chance55%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Second-half scoring is low for both teams, so a level second half is the most likely single outcome.
- Puerto Nuevo average 0.53 second-half goals for and 1.00 against across 15 tracked matches
- Urquiza average 0.33 second-half goals for and 0.27 against in 15 tracked matches
- Neither side averages close to a goal in the second half
BetBugs · Second Half WinnerlostDrawEstimated chance45%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Both sides score rarely and Urquiza's away matches finish level far more often than not. Puerto Nuevo's weak home record and the head-to-head history point to the visitors, even though Urquiza almost never win away.
- JJ Urquiza have drawn 9 of 15 away league games this season and 14 of 30 overall
- Puerto Nuevo have drawn 11 of 30 league games
- Urquiza have won four of the last five head-to-head meetings, including both played at Puerto Nuevo
- Puerto Nuevo have lost 7 of 15 home league games this season
BetBugs · Double ChancewonDraw or JJ UrquizaEstimated chance69%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Puerto Nuevo start games solidly and Urquiza rarely lead at the break, so a narrow half-time lead is the main home route. First halves in this fixture look extremely low-scoring, which makes a level half-time score the most likely outcome.
- Puerto Nuevo have conceded one first-half goal across 15 tracked matches (0.07 per game)
- Puerto Nuevo's home split shows 0.44 first-half goals scored per game
- Urquiza's seven tracked away matches contain no first-half goals for them
- Puerto Nuevo's home split shows 0.11 first-half goals conceded per game
BetBugs · Double Chance First HalflostPuerto Nuevo Campana or DrawEstimated chance87%

Goals4 of 9 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Market price 1.36
The read
Both attacks are among the weakest in the division, so a third goal in the match is unlikely.
- Puerto Nuevo's tracked matches average 2.0 goals per game, Urquiza's 1.4
- Urquiza have scored just 15 goals in 30 league games and conceded 25
- Puerto Nuevo have kept five clean sheets in 15 tracked matches
- The last five meetings between the clubs produced 10 goals in total
BetBugs · Goals Over/UnderlostUnder 2.5Estimated chance73%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Market price 1.50
The read
Both defences have been far more reliable than the attacks, making a clean sheet in the match the more likely outcome.
- Urquiza have scored 5 goals in 15 away league games
- Urquiza have kept nine clean sheets in 15 tracked matches
- Puerto Nuevo have kept five clean sheets in 15 tracked matches
- Four of the last five head-to-head meetings had at least one side failing to score
BetBugs · Both Teams to ScorelostNoEstimated chance70%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
The home side's scoring output is low and Urquiza's defence has been the stronger unit in this window.
- Puerto Nuevo score 0.93 per game across 15 tracked matches and 14 goals in 15 home league games
- Urquiza have kept nine clean sheets in their 15 tracked matches
- Puerto Nuevo have failed to score in four of their last six league games
BetBugs · Home Goals TotalwonPuerto Nuevo Campana under 1.5Estimated chance77%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
The visitors' away scoring is the weakest part of their game, making two goals very unlikely.
- Urquiza average 0.6 goals per game across 15 tracked matches and 5 in 15 away league games
- Puerto Nuevo have kept five clean sheets in 15 tracked matches
- Urquiza have failed to score in several recent away games, including 0-0 draws at Defensores de Cambaceres and at home to General Lamadrid
BetBugs · Away Goals TotallostJJ Urquiza under 1.5Estimated chance83%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Puerto Nuevo have conceded in the large majority of their home matches this season.
- Puerto Nuevo have conceded 22 goals in 15 home league games this season
- Puerto Nuevo's home split shows 1.22 second-half goals conceded per game
- Urquiza scored four goals across their last six league matches
BetBugs · Team to ScorewonJJ Urquiza to scoreEstimated chance53%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
The home side score in most of their home games, so a full shut-out for the visitors is the less likely outcome.
- Puerto Nuevo have scored 14 goals in 15 home league games
- Puerto Nuevo average 0.93 goals per game across 15 tracked matches
- Urquiza concede 0.8 per game in the tracked window
BetBugs · Team to ScorewonPuerto Nuevo Campana to scoreEstimated chance59%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Both teams' first-half scoring rates are very low, making a goalless opening period slightly more likely than not.
- Puerto Nuevo's 15 tracked matches average 0.40 first-half goals for and 0.07 against
- Urquiza's seven tracked away matches contain no first-half goals for them
- Puerto Nuevo's home split shows 0.11 first-half goals conceded per game
BetBugs · 1st Half GoalslostUnder 0.5 goals in 1st halfEstimated chance53%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
The first-half scoring rates of both sides are extremely low, so at least one team going in at the break scoreless is very likely.
- Puerto Nuevo concede 0.07 first-half goals per game across 15 tracked matches
- Urquiza's seven tracked away matches contain no first-half goals for them
- Urquiza average 0.27 first-half goals for across 15 tracked matches
BetBugs · Both Teams Score First HalfwonNoEstimated chance92%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Second-half scoring for both sides sits at roughly one goal per game combined, so two or more is unlikely.
- Puerto Nuevo average 0.53 second-half goals for and 1.00 against across 15 tracked matches
- Urquiza average 0.33 second-half goals for and 0.27 against across 15 tracked matches
- Puerto Nuevo's home split shows 0.44 second-half goals scored per game
BetBugs · Goals Over Under Second HalflostUnder 1.5Estimated chance71%