Primera CFull time

Predictions graded

Puerto Nuevo Campana2Deportivo Paraguayo3

HT 0–1Sun 20 Sept 2026, 18:00 Predictions graded

Predictions1–137%

Edges1–614%

Quick Take

Pre-match view

Context last updated 20 Sep 2026, 00:37 · Europe/Bucharest

Puerto Nuevo's poor home form (3W 5D 6L) and a reported two-man reshuffle make the draw a live outcome against a Paraguayo side fighting for survival, so the low-scoring, tight-match shape is the most likely scenario.

The home win at 1.85 is a clear avoid (54% implied vs 44% estimated), while the half-time draw at 1.91 is the only market where price and estimate align.

Context

Puerto Nuevo Campana sit seventh in Primera C Group A with 38 points from 28 games, holding a promotion play-off place. Their 14 home matches have produced 3 wins, 5 draws and 6 defeats, with 12 goals scored and 19 conceded.
The split is stark: Puerto Nuevo have won 6, drawn 6 and lost only 2 away from home, scoring 13 and conceding 8, while at home they have lost more than they have won. That means the venue does not give them the usual lift, and Deportivo Paraguayo are facing a host whose results have been better on the road. The home sample is large enough to treat as a real pattern rather than noise, though it does not by itself explain why the home games have gone worse.
- Puerto Nuevo home record in Primera C 2026: 14 played, 3 wins, 5 draws, 6 losses, 12 goals for, 19 against.
- Puerto Nuevo away record in the same season: 14 played, 6 wins, 6 draws, 2 losses, 13 goals for, 8 against.
- Overall Puerto Nuevo record: 28 played, 9 wins, 11 draws, 8 losses, 25 goals for, 27 against.
Deportivo Paraguayo are thirteenth in Primera C Group A with 27 points from 28 games, six wins, nine draws and thirteen defeats. They have scored 18 and conceded 35 across the season.
In 14 away matches they have scored 7 and conceded 19, with 2 wins, 6 draws and 6 losses, so their away games have generally been low-scoring for them and often ended without a win. That record points to a cautious away approach rather than an open one, and it also means a single goal could decide their night. The sample covers the full season, so it is a stable pattern, but it does not guarantee the same output in this specific match.
- Deportivo Paraguayo away record in Primera C 2026: 14 played, 2 wins, 6 draws, 6 losses, 7 goals for, 19 against.
- Deportivo Paraguayo overall record: 28 played, 6 wins, 9 draws, 13 losses, 18 goals for, 35 against.
- Their most recent away match was a 3-0 defeat at Lujan on 12 September 2026.
Puerto Nuevo's last two Primera C matches were a 2-0 away defeat to Central Ballester on 12 September 2026 and a 1-0 home loss to Lugano on 6 September 2026. Before that they won 3-0 away at Leandro N. Alem on 30 August 2026.
Two straight scoreless defeats sit inside a wider run of LLWLD, so the recent sample is small and mixed rather than a long slump. The relevant point for this match is that Puerto Nuevo have not scored in either of their last two games, which puts pressure on their attacking play at home. Two matches is a short window, so it should be read as a current trend rather than a settled pattern.
- 12 September 2026: Puerto Nuevo lost 2-0 away to Central Ballester.
- 6 September 2026: Puerto Nuevo lost 1-0 at home to Lugano.
- 30 August 2026: Puerto Nuevo won 3-0 away to Leandro N. Alem.
Puerto Nuevo are projected to make two changes to their starting side after the 2-0 defeat to Central Ballester, with Matías Sarmiento and Luciano Verón reported as replacements for the sent-off Rodrigo Martínez and Santiago Arellano.
Because one change follows a dismissal rather than a tactical choice, the home side's starting structure is likely to differ from kickoff, and the report does not establish how the new pair will combine. The reshuffle is reported rather than confirmed, so the exact XI remains uncertain.
- Solo Ascenso reported that Rodrigo Martínez was sent off in Puerto Nuevo’s 2-0 defeat to Central Ballester.
- The report projected Matías Sarmiento and Luciano Verón to replace Martínez and Santiago Arellano in Puerto Nuevo’s probable XI.
ReportedSources checked 20 Sep 2026, 00:36 · Europe/BucharestSolo Ascenso — Puerto Nuevo quiere volver al triunfo contra Paraguayowww.soloascenso.com.ar · 19 Sep 2026

BetBugs edges

Compare BetBugs' chances with the market's.

Other edges · 7

The published chance does not exceed the market's implied chance.

Match WinnerlostUncertainty band: Near coin-flip

Puerto Nuevo Campana

1.85fair 2.27

BetBugs 44% · Market 54%

0.0ppshort

The market prices Puerto Nuevo as a clear favourite but their home form (3W 5D 6L) is far weaker than their away form, and Paraguayo's survival incentive plus low-scoring away profile makes the draw a live outcome.

Double ChancelostUncertainty band: Strong lean

Puerto Nuevo Campana or Draw

1.33fair 1.39

BetBugs 72% · Market 75%

0.0ppshort

Puerto Nuevo's high draw share (11 of 28) and Paraguayo's dire away scoring (0.5 goals per game) support the home-or-draw angle, but at 1.33 the price already reflects most of that safety.

1 St Half ResultlostUncertainty band: Slight lean

Draw

1.91fair 1.92

BetBugs 52% · Market 52%

0.0ppshort

Both sides were level at half-time in roughly two-thirds of recent matches and average under 0.5 first-half goals each, making the half-time draw the modal outcome at a fair price.

1 St Half Double ChancelostUncertainty band: Strong lean

Puerto Nuevo Campana or Draw

1.10fair 1.28

BetBugs 78% · Market 91%

0.0ppshort

The half-time home-or-draw angle is statistically strong but the 1.10 price is far shorter than our 78% estimate justifies, offering no value.

Goals Over/UnderlostUncertainty band: Strong lean

Under 2.5

1.40fair 1.47

BetBugs 68% · Market 71.4%

0.0ppshort

Both sides' combined scoring averages (0.9 and 0.5 goals per game) and Paraguayo's 10 blanks in 15 point to a low total, with the H2H producing 0-0, 1-0 and 1-1 scorelines.

Both Teams To ScorelostUncertainty band: Lean

No

1.48fair 1.61

BetBugs 62% · Market 67.6%

0.0ppshort

Paraguayo's chronic away scoring drought (0.5 goals per away game, 10 blanks in 15) makes at least one clean sheet likely, suppressing BTTS.

BetBugs probabilities

How likely BetBugs thought each outcome was.

Result0 of 7 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Puerto Nuevo's superior league position, better overall goal difference (-2 vs -17) and recent H2H edge give them the edge, though their poor home record caps confidence; motivation to protect a playoff place (claim 1) adds urgency.
- Puerto Nuevo sit 7th in Group A with 38 points from 28 games (9W 11D 8L), while Deportivo Paraguayo are 13th with 27 points (6W 9D 13L).
- Puerto Nuevo's away record is strong (6W 6D 2L, 13 goals for, 8 against in 14), but their home record is weak (3W 5D 6L, 12 for, 19 against).
- Deportivo Paraguayo's away record is poor: 2W 6D 6L, only 7 goals scored in 14 away games, 19 conceded.
- H2H last 5: Puerto Nuevo won the most recent meeting 1-0 (May 2026) and are unbeaten in the last 3 vs Paraguayo (1W 2D).
BetBugs · Match WinnerlostPuerto Nuevo CampanaEstimated chance44%
Signal quality High · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Low-scoring Paraguayo away form plus Puerto Nuevo's high draw frequency make the home-or-draw double chance the safest result angle, supported by H2H draw patterns.
- Puerto Nuevo have drawn 11 of 28 league games (39%), the highest draw share among top-8 Group A sides.
- Deportivo Paraguayo have drawn 9 of 28 (32%) and scored only 18 goals all season (0.64 per game).
- Paraguayo's away scoring is dire: 7 goals in 14 away matches (0.5 per game).
- H2H last 5 produced 2 draws and only 1 Paraguayo win (2021, Primera D).
BetBugs · Double ChancelostPuerto Nuevo Campana or DrawEstimated chance72%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Both sides' strong tendency to reach half-time level, combined with minimal first-half scoring output, makes the half-time draw the modal outcome.
- Puerto Nuevo were level at half-time in 11 of their last 15 matches.
- Deportivo Paraguayo were level at half-time in 10 of their last 15 matches.
- Puerto Nuevo average 0.4 first-half goals; Paraguayo 0.3.
- Paraguayo trailed at half-time in only 20% of matches (leadingAtHalfTime 13%).
BetBugs · First Half WinnerlostDrawEstimated chance52%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Puerto Nuevo's relatively stronger overall scoring and Paraguayo's weak away defensive record suggest the home side is more likely to edge the second half, though the signal is modest.
- Puerto Nuevo score 0.9 goals per game overall but only 0.4 in the first half, implying second-half weighting.
- Deportivo Paraguayo concede 0.9 per game and score 0.5, with most goals against coming in the second half of matches.
- Paraguayo's away record shows 19 goals conceded in 14 away games.
- Puerto Nuevo's home record shows 12 goals scored in 14 home games.
BetBugs · Second Half WinnerlostPuerto Nuevo CampanaEstimated chance38%
Signal quality High · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Puerto Nuevo never trailed at half-time across the last 15 matches, and Paraguayo's low first-half scoring makes a home-or-draw half-time double chance highly probable.
- Puerto Nuevo were level or ahead at half-time in all 15 of their last 15 matches (leadingAtHalfTime 27%, trailingAtHalfTime 0%).
- Deportivo Paraguayo trailed at half-time in 20% of matches and led in only 13%.
- Puerto Nuevo average 0.4 first-half goals; Paraguayo 0.3.
- Paraguayo's away form is weak (2W 6D 6L).
BetBugs · Double Chance First HalflostPuerto Nuevo Campana or DrawEstimated chance78%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Puerto Nuevo's pattern of level half-times followed by stronger second-half output makes the draw-to-home HT/FT sequence the most plausible combination, though overall match volatility keeps confidence low.
- Puerto Nuevo were level at half-time in 11 of their last 15 matches.
- Puerto Nuevo's half-time result was a draw in 73% of recent matches.
- Puerto Nuevo score 0.4 first-half goals vs 0.9 overall, indicating second-half improvement.
- Deportivo Paraguayo's away record is 2W 6D 6L with 19 conceded.
BetBugs · Ht Ft DoublelostDraw / Puerto Nuevo CampanaEstimated chance22%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Puerto Nuevo's clear table and goal-difference superiority plus Paraguayo's weak away scoring support a narrow home handicap, though Puerto Nuevo's poor home record (3W 5D 6L) limits conviction.
- Puerto Nuevo are 7th (38 pts) vs Paraguayo 13th (27 pts) in Group A.
- Puerto Nuevo goal difference -2 vs Paraguayo -17.
- Paraguayo away: 2W 6D 6L, 7 goals scored in 14 away games.
- H2H last 5: Puerto Nuevo 1W 2D 0L in the last 3 meetings.
BetBugs · Asian HandicaplostPuerto Nuevo Campana -0.5Estimated chance44%

Goals1 of 7 landed

Signal quality High · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Both teams' low scoring averages (0.9 and 0.5 goals per game) and Paraguayo's frequent blanks point strongly to a low total, with no evidence of attacking upturn.
- Puerto Nuevo average 0.9 goals scored and 0.9 conceded per game across the last 15 matches.
- Deportivo Paraguayo average 0.5 goals scored and 0.9 conceded per game across the last 15 matches.
- Paraguayo have scored 0 goals in 10 of their last 15 matches.
- Puerto Nuevo have kept 4 clean sheets in their last 15; Paraguayo have kept 7.
BetBugs · Goals Over/UnderlostUnder 2.5Estimated chance68%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Paraguayo's chronic away scoring drought (0.5 goals per away game) makes a clean sheet for either side likely, reducing BTTS probability.
- Deportivo Paraguayo failed to score in 10 of their last 15 matches.
- Puerto Nuevo failed to score in 6 of their last 15 matches.
- Paraguayo away record: 7 goals in 14 away games, 19 conceded.
- H2H last 5: two 0-0/1-0 style low-scoring results, only one match with both teams scoring.
BetBugs · Both Teams to ScorelostNoEstimated chance62%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Paraguayo's away scoring rate is the weakest relevant signal, making a Puerto Nuevo clean sheet a plausible but not dominant outcome given Puerto Nuevo's own home defensive frailty (19 conceded in 14 home games).
- Deportivo Paraguayo scored 0 goals in 10 of their last 15 matches.
- Paraguayo away: 7 goals in 14 away matches (0.5 per game).
- Puerto Nuevo conceded 0.9 goals per game across the last 15 matches.
- H2H: Puerto Nuevo kept a clean sheet in the 1-0 win in May 2026.
BetBugs · Team to ScorelostDeportivo Paraguayo not to scoreEstimated chance45%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Both teams' very low first-half scoring averages and high frequency of level half-time scores make a quiet opening period the most likely scenario.
- Puerto Nuevo average 0.4 first-half goals scored across the last 15 matches.
- Deportivo Paraguayo average 0.3 first-half goals scored across the last 15 matches.
- Puerto Nuevo's half-time result was a draw in 11 of their last 15 matches.
- Paraguayo's half-time result was a draw in 10 of their last 15 matches.
BetBugs · 1st Half GoalswonUnder 1.5 goals in 1st halfEstimated chance66%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Puerto Nuevo's modest home scoring output and Paraguayo's reasonable defensive concession rate make a low home total the more likely outcome.
- Puerto Nuevo average 0.9 goals per game across the last 15 matches.
- Puerto Nuevo scored 12 goals in 14 home league games (0.86 per game).
- Puerto Nuevo failed to score in 6 of their last 15 matches.
- Deportivo Paraguayo conceded 0.9 goals per game across the last 15 matches.
BetBugs · Home Goals TotallostPuerto Nuevo Campana under 1.5Estimated chance58%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Paraguayo's extremely low away scoring rate makes a blank away total the single most likely outcome, though Puerto Nuevo's home defensive record (19 conceded in 14) leaves some risk.
- Deportivo Paraguayo average 0.5 goals per game across the last 15 matches.
- Paraguayo scored 7 goals in 14 away league games (0.5 per game).
- Paraguayo failed to score in 10 of their last 15 matches.
- Puerto Nuevo conceded 0.9 goals per game across the last 15 matches.
BetBugs · Away Goals TotallostDeportivo Paraguayo under 0.5Estimated chance48%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
The combination of Paraguayo's scoring drought and Puerto Nuevo's H2H clean sheet makes a home win-to-nil plausible, but Puerto Nuevo's leaky home defence keeps confidence low.
- Puerto Nuevo kept clean sheets in 4 of their last 15 matches.
- Deportivo Paraguayo failed to score in 10 of their last 15 matches.
- Puerto Nuevo's home record includes 19 goals conceded in 14 home games.
- H2H: Puerto Nuevo won 1-0 away in the most recent meeting (May 2026).
BetBugs · Home Win to NillostYesEstimated chance30%

Markets to Avoid

High-risk markets where price or context leaves too little cushion.

Implied 54% leaves no cushion vs our 44% estimate; the price already reflects the table-position gap while ignoring Puerto Nuevo's weak home record.

Head-to-Head

2W · 2D · 1W

W0-1Deportivo ParaguayovPuerto NuevoMay 23, 2026PRI

D0-0Puerto NuevovDeportivo ParaguayoAug 18, 2024PRI

D1-1Deportivo ParaguayovPuerto NuevoMar 17, 2024PRI

W0-3Deportivo ParaguayovPuerto NuevoSep 30, 2021PRI

L2-1Puerto NuevovDeportivo ParaguayoJun 9, 2021PRI

Puerto Nuevo Campana: 3 clean sheets1.8 goals/game avg

League Table

Primera C 2026/2027

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF-GA	Pts	Form
7	Puerto Nuevo Campana Promotion - Primera C (Promotion - Play Offs)	28	9	11	8	25-27	38	LLWLD
13	Deportivo Paraguayo	28	6	9	13	18-35	27	LWDWL

11pt gap between teams

Recent Form

Puerto Nuevo Campana

L0-2Central BallesterSep 12PRI

L0-1LuganoSep 6PRI

W3-0Leandro N. AlemAug 30PRI

L0-2Defensores de CambaceresAug 23PRI

D2-2YupanquiAug 14PRI

D1-1Juventud UnidaAug 9PRI

W1-0SacachispasJul 31PRI

D0-0Argentino RosarioJul 23PRI

L0-1FénixJul 17PRI

W1-0Estrella Del SurJul 12PRI

W2-0BerazateguiJul 5PRI

W2-1Victoriano ArenasJun 28PRI

L0-2Centro EspañolJun 14PRI

W1-0JJ UrquizaJun 6PRI

D1-1MercedesMay 30PRI

Deportivo Paraguayo

L0-3LujanSep 12PRI

W4-1Leandro N. AlemSep 6PRI

D0-0Defensores de CambaceresAug 29PRI

W2-1Juventud UnidaAug 22PRI

L0-1Sportivo BarracasAug 16PRI

L0-2SacachispasAug 10PRI

D0-0Central BallesterAug 4PRI

W2-1Argentino RosarioJul 31PRI

L0-1Estrella Del SurJul 25PRI

L0-1BerazateguiJul 11PRI

D0-0Victoriano ArenasJul 5PRI

L0-2Centro EspañolJun 27PRI

D0-0JJ UrquizaJun 13PRI

D0-0MercedesJun 6PRI

D0-0LuganoMay 30PRI

Squad & Injuries

Puerto Nuevo Campana

0 available

Attackers0

Midfielders0

Defenders0

Goalkeeper0

Deportivo Paraguayo

1 available

Attackers0

Midfielders1

Defenders0

Goalkeeper0

Puerto Nuevo Campana2Deportivo Paraguayo3

Quick Take

Context

BetBugs edges

Puerto Nuevo Campana

Puerto Nuevo Campana or Draw

Draw

Puerto Nuevo Campana or Draw

Under 2.5

No

Under 1.5

BetBugs probabilities

Result0 of 7 landed

Goals1 of 7 landed

Markets to Avoid

Puerto Nuevo Campana (Puerto Nuevo Campana) @ 1.85

Puerto Nuevo Campana or Draw @ 1.10

Under 1.5

Head-to-Head

League Table

Recent Form

Puerto Nuevo Campana

Deportivo Paraguayo

Squad & Injuries

Puerto Nuevo Campana

Deportivo Paraguayo