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Deportivo ParaguayoClub Mercedes

Sat 3 Oct 2026, 18:003 Oct, 18:00

14Probabilities3Priced5Edges78%Strongest

Strong leanLeanSlight leanNear coin-flip

Quick Take

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Context last updated 2 Oct 2026, 17:21 · Europe/Bucharest

Deportivo Paraguayo have already secured their place in Primera C and host a Mercedes side that sits sixth but has lost four of seven away matches tracked since mid-June.

Mercedes avoiding defeat is the likeliest result, with both clubs on 10 draws from 30 league games. Mercedes to win at 2.05 asks more than the record supports, but Deportivo to be ahead at half-time at 4.2 and over 2.5 goals at 2.5 both hold up, though both come with clear caveats.

Context

Deportivo's division status is settled before Fecha 31, while Mercedes carry the stronger 2026 season but a losing away record and a low-scoring recent history in this fixture. The head-to-head has produced six goals across the last five meetings, so the sporting conditions point to a tight, low-scoring home game rather than a fixture with major stakes.

Deportivo Paraguayo's 1-1 draw with Lugano at the Estadio Guaraní on 26 September clinched their place in Primera C for another season, with Federico Pellegrino equalising in the 5th minute after Matías Benardoni's opener. It is the one change that alters what this Fecha 31 home fixture means: relegation is no longer part of the equation for the hosts. The limitation is that a settled objective says nothing certain about approach, and the regular phase still runs on, so the result cannot be read as either a release or a drop-off in intensity.
- Deportivo Paraguayo drew 1-1 with Lugano at home on 26 September 2026 in Fecha 30 of the Primera C regular phase.
- The draw secured the club's place in Primera C for the following season.
- Federico Pellegrino equalised for Deportivo Paraguayo in the 5th minute after Matías Benardoni had given Lugano a 1st-minute lead.
ConfirmedSources checked 2 Oct 2026, 17:18 · Europe/Bucharest
Mercedes have not lost to Deportivo since March 2024, and the 2-0 a year before this fixture shows the tie can open up once Mercedes get in front. The counterweight is the venue: the two meetings staged at the Estadio Guaraní finished 0-0 and 0-1, one goal in total across both visits, so the series reads tight whenever Deportivo host.
- Club Mercedes beat Deportivo Paraguayo 2-0 in Primera C on 3 October 2025.
- In the five meetings listed between 8 March 2024 and 6 June 2026, Mercedes won three and drew two.
- The two meetings staged at Deportivo Paraguayo's ground, on 8 March 2024 and 26 September 2025, produced one goal in total.
This is the away version of Mercedes: nearly half their road games have ended in defeat, and they have scored 11 goals in 15 away matches. That softens the edge their sixth place and their hold on this fixture give them, and it is why Deportivo, with their place in the division already secured, can still make this an awkward trip.
- Mercedes' 2026 Primera C home record is 15 matches, 7 wins, 6 draws and 2 defeats, with 18 goals scored and 9 conceded.
- Their away record in the same season is 15 matches, 4 wins, 4 draws and 7 defeats, with 11 scored and 14 conceded.
- They sit sixth on 43 points from 30 matches as of 2 October 2026.
The round is fixed for 15:00 local time on Saturday 3 October at Deportivo Paraguayo's Estadio Guaraní, with Facundo Carretero refereeing and Matías Panozzo, Tomás Pérez and Juan Ferreyra on the lines. That pins down the venue, kickoff and round for a fixture whose schedule and ground were otherwise unlisted, which frames how the two sides prepare for the trip and the playing conditions. No further detail on pitch state, attendance or weather has been published, so nothing beyond the arrangements themselves can be built on it.
- The fixture is Fecha 31 of the Primera C Zona A regular phase, scheduled for Saturday 3 October at 15:00.
- It is set for Deportivo Paraguayo's Estadio Guaraní.
- Facundo Carretero was appointed referee, with Matías Panozzo, Tomás Pérez and Juan Ferreyra as assistants.
ConfirmedSources checked 2 Oct 2026, 17:18 · Europe/Bucharest

BetBugs edges

Compare BetBugs' chances with the market's.

Positive edges · 2

Other edges · 3

The published chance does not exceed the market's implied chance.

Both Teams to ScoreUncertainty band: Lean

No

1.57fair 1.61

BetBugs 62% · Market 63.7%

−1.7ppshort

Mercedes' defense and the low-scoring head-to-head make both teams scoring less likely.

1st Half GoalsUncertainty band: Lean

Over 0.5 goals in 1st half

1.50fair 1.61

BetBugs 62% · Market 66.7%

−4.7ppshort

Both teams have enough first-half scoring to make at least one goal more likely than not.

Match WinnerUncertainty band: Near coin-flip

Club Mercedes

2.05fair 2.78

BetBugs 36% · Market 48.8%

−12.8ppshort

Mercedes has the stronger season record and has avoided defeat in this fixture for five matches.

BetBugs probabilities

How likely BetBugs thinks each outcome is.

Result5 outcomes · top 75%

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Market price 2.05
The read
Mercedes has the stronger season record and has avoided defeat in this fixture for five matches.
- Mercedes ranks 6th with 43 points
- Mercedes has 3 wins and 2 draws in last five head-to-head
- Away overall averages 1.27 goals scored per game
BetBugs · Match WinnerClub MercedesMarket price2.05Estimated chance36%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
First halves in this league are often cautious and both teams score little before the break.
- Home first-half average is 0.47 goals overall
- Away first-half average is 0.53 goals overall
- Away drew first half in 3 of last 6
BetBugs · First Half WinnerDrawEstimated chance45%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Second halves involving Deportivo have often been level, and both teams score little after the break at home.
- Home drew 4 of last 6 second halves
- Home second-half average is 0.33 for and 0.33 against at home
- Away away second-half average is 0.43 for and 0.71 against
BetBugs · Second Half WinnerDrawEstimated chance40%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Both sides draw often and the most recent meeting at this ground was goalless. Mercedes has the stronger season record and has avoided defeat in this fixture for five matches.
- Both teams have drawn 10 of 30 league games
- Two of the last five head-to-head meetings ended level
- Mercedes ranks 6th with 43 points
- Mercedes has 3 wins and 2 draws in last five head-to-head
BetBugs · Double ChanceDraw or Club MercedesEstimated chance70%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Deportivo has started well at home recently and can lead at the break. First halves in this league are often cautious and both teams score little before the break.
- Home first-half average is 0.67 goals at home
- Away away first-half average is 0.43 conceded
- Home first-half average is 0.47 goals overall
- Away first-half average is 0.53 goals overall
BetBugs · Double Chance First HalfDeportivo Paraguayo or DrawEstimated chance75%

Goals9 outcomes · top 78%

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
The head-to-head record and both teams' away/home scoring rates point to few goals.
- Last five head-to-head totals were 0, 2, 0, 3 and 1
- Home overall averages 0.80 goals scored per game
- Away away averages 0.86 goals scored per game
BetBugs · Goals Over/UnderUnder 2.5Estimated chance58%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Market price 1.57
The read
Mercedes' defense and the low-scoring head-to-head make both teams scoring less likely.
- Away has 7 clean sheets in 15 matches
- Both teams scored in only 1 of last 5 head-to-heads
- Away away both-scored in 1 of 7
BetBugs · Both Teams to ScoreNoMarket price1.57Estimated chance62%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Deportivo's home scoring is low and Mercedes has kept clean sheets away from home.
- Home overall averages 0.80 goals per game
- Away away has 3 clean sheets in 7
- Home failed to score in 5 of 9 home matches
BetBugs · Home Goals TotalDeportivo Paraguayo under 1.5Estimated chance70%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Mercedes' away scoring is modest and Deportivo's home defense has been fairly solid.
- Away away averages 0.86 goals per game
- Away failed to score in 3 of 7 away matches
- Home home concedes 0.89 goals per game
BetBugs · Away Goals TotalClub Mercedes under 1.5Estimated chance78%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Mercedes usually finds a goal on the road, making a Deportivo clean sheet less likely.
- Away scored in 4 of 7 away matches
- Home home conceded in 7 of 9
- Away overall averages 1.27 goals per game
BetBugs · Team to ScoreClub Mercedes to scoreEstimated chance70%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Deportivo has been finding the net more often recently, so Mercedes may not keep a clean sheet.
- Home scored in four of its last six
- Away away conceded in 4 of 7
- Home home averages 1.00 goal per game
BetBugs · Team to ScoreDeportivo Paraguayo to scoreEstimated chance55%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Market price 1.50
The read
Both teams have enough first-half scoring to make at least one goal more likely than not.
- Home first-half average is 0.67 goals at home
- Away away first-half average is 0.43 goals
- At least one first-half goal in 5 of home's last 6
BetBugs · 1st Half GoalsOver 0.5 goals in 1st halfMarket price1.50Estimated chance62%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Early goals for both teams have been uncommon in Mercedes matches.
- Both scored first half in only 1 of away's last 6
- First-half goal averages are under 0.7 each
- Away away first-half average is 0.43 goals
BetBugs · Both Teams Score First HalfNoEstimated chance78%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
The home split and Deportivo's recent second halves point to fewer than two goals after the break.
- Home home second-half average is 0.33 for and 0.33 against
- Away away second-half average is 0.43 for and 0.71 against
- Home drew 4 of last 6 second halves
BetBugs · Goals Over Under Second HalfUnder 1.5Estimated chance62%