Vastra Frolunda IF2Astorps Ff0

HT 1–0Sun 27 Sept 2026, 11:00 Predictions graded

Predictions8–657%

Edges2–167%

Quick Take

Pre-match view

Context last updated 25 Sep 2026, 18:08 · Europe/Bucharest

Frölunda's one home league defeat in 11 meets an Åstorp side that has won four of its last six and scores more away than at home.

A home win with goals in it is the most likely shape of the afternoon. Frölunda at 1.83 asks too much, and so do three or more goals at 1.3 and a first-half goal at 1.17. Fewer than three goals at 3 and a goalless first half at 4 are the two prices with a small edge.

Context

Västra Frölunda have taken two of the last three meetings, including the most recent one 3-0 in Åstorp in May 2026.
Recent history between these clubs points to a clear margin rather than a tight game: 3-0 to Frölunda in Åstorp in May 2026, 3-0 to Åstorp in September 2025, and 2-0 to Frölunda in April 2025. None of the three finished level, and the losing side was kept off the scoresheet every time. Three matches is a small sample, so the pattern is a hint rather than a dependable guide.
- 24 May 2026: Åstorp 0-3 Västra Frölunda in Division 2 Västra Götaland, a three-goal away win
- 7 September 2025: Åstorp 3-0 Västra Frölunda, a three-goal home win
- 6 April 2025: Västra Frölunda 2-0 Åstorp
Frölunda sit seventh on 33 points from 22 league games, and their home form is the reason they are there.
Frölunda's league record is 6W-4D-1L at home, with 28 goals scored and 15 conceded in 11 games, against 3W-2D-6L away. They come into this fixture after losing 0-3 at Dalstorps on 11 September and 1-4 at Galtabacks on 20 September, both on the road. Playing at home is the strongest argument for the home side; two heavy away defeats in the last fortnight are the strongest argument against reading too much into it.
- Västra Frölunda 2026 league record: 22 played, 9W-6D-7L, 42 goals for, 38 against, seventh on 33 points
- Home league record: 11 played, 6W-4D-1L, 28 scored, 15 conceded
- Away league record: 11 played, 3W-2D-6L, 14 scored, 23 conceded
- Recent league form: LLWLW
Åstorp are 11th on 26 points with a WLWLW run of league form, and their away scoring is the brighter half of their season.
Åstorp's 18 away goals in 11 league games are nearly double the 10 they have managed in 11 home games, even though the away results (4W-2D-5L) are only marginally better than the home ones (3W-3D-5L). For this fixture it suggests the visitors are likelier to score than their 11th place implies, which works against the home side keeping a clean sheet. It does not by itself point to an Åstorp result, since they still concede regularly on their travels, 21 goals in 11 games.
- Åstorp away league record 2026: 11 played, 4W-2D-5L, 18 scored, 21 conceded
- Åstorp home league record 2026: 11 played, 3W-3D-5L, 10 scored, 15 conceded
- Overall 2026 league record: 22 played, 7W-5D-10L, 28 scored, 36 conceded, 11th on 26 points
- Recent league form: WLWLW

BetBugs edges

Compare BetBugs' chances with the market's.

Positive edges · 2

Other edges · 1

The published chance does not exceed the market's implied chance.

Match WinnerwonUncertainty band: Near coin-flip

Vastra Frolunda IF

1.83fair 2.08

BetBugs 48% · Market 54.6%

−6.6ppshort

Frölunda have been far stronger at home than on the road this season, while Åstorp's away results are only mid-table.

BetBugs probabilities

How likely BetBugs thought each outcome was.

Result3 of 4 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Market price 1.83
The read
Frölunda have been far stronger at home than on the road this season, while Åstorp's away results are only mid-table.
- Västra Frölunda league home record: 6W-4D-1L, 28 scored and 15 conceded in 11 home games
- Åstorp away league record: 4W-2D-5L, 18 scored and 21 conceded in 11 away games
- Frölunda won the May 2026 meeting 3-0 away and have won two of the last three head-to-heads
- Tracked home split for Frölunda is 4W-3D-1L in eight home matches
BetBugs · Match WinnerwonVastra Frolunda IFEstimated chance48%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
First-half scoring rates on both sides are modest, which keeps the level half-time score in front.
- Frölunda home first halves average 1.625 goals in total per tracked match
- Åstorp away first halves average 1.875 goals in total per tracked match
- Frölunda's first-half totals overall are 0.6 scored and 1.07 conceded per match
BetBugs · First Half WinnerlostDrawEstimated chance44%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Frölunda's second-half scoring at home is the strongest half statistic in the evidence.
- Frölunda second halves at home: 1.375 goals scored and 0.75 conceded per tracked match
- Åstorp second halves away: 0.75 scored and 0.625 conceded per tracked match
- Frölunda's tracked second halves overall: 0.87 scored and 1.0 conceded per match
BetBugs · Second Half WinnerwonVastra Frolunda IFEstimated chance38%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Frölunda hold the better first-half scoring and conceding numbers at home, but the margins are small. First-half scoring rates on both sides are modest, which keeps the level half-time score in front.
- Frölunda first halves at home: 0.875 goals scored, 0.75 conceded per tracked match
- Åstorp first halves away: 0.875 scored, 1.0 conceded per tracked match
- Frölunda home first halves average 1.625 goals in total per tracked match
- Åstorp away first halves average 1.875 goals in total per tracked match
BetBugs · Double Chance First HalfwonVastra Frolunda IF or DrawEstimated chance78%

Goals5 of 10 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Both teams' home and away records point to a high-scoring match, and Frölunda's recent games have produced plenty of goals.
- Frölunda home league games average 3.9 goals (28 scored, 15 conceded in 11)
- Åstorp away league games average 3.5 goals (18 scored, 21 conceded in 11)
- Frölunda's last two matches produced five and four goals
- Tracked overall averages: Frölunda 3.5 goals per match, Åstorp 2.8
BetBugs · Goals Over/UnderlostOver 2.5Estimated chance63%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Neither side keeps clean sheets often and both have scored regularly in their home and away matches.
- Frölunda kept only 2 clean sheets in 8 tracked home matches
- Åstorp kept only 1 clean sheet in 8 tracked away matches
- Both teams scored in 9 of Frölunda's 15 tracked matches and 8 of Åstorp's 15
BetBugs · Both Teams to ScorelostYesEstimated chance64%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Frölunda have scored at least twice in the majority of their home league games.
- Frölunda scored 28 goals in 11 league home games (2.55 per game)
- Tracked home scoring average for Frölunda is 2.25 goals per game
- Åstorp conceded 21 goals in 11 away league games (1.91 per game)
BetBugs · Home Goals TotalwonVastra Frolunda IF over 1.5Estimated chance57%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Åstorp's away scoring is modest and Frölunda concede fewer than 1.5 goals per home game.
- Åstorp scored one goal or fewer in three of their last six matches
- Åstorp average 1.64 goals per away league game
- Frölunda kept 2 clean sheets in 8 tracked home matches
BetBugs · Away Goals TotalwonAstorps Ff under 1.5Estimated chance60%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Åstorp's run of scoring in every recent match makes a Frölunda clean sheet the less likely outcome.
- Åstorp have scored in each of their last six matches
- Åstorp scored 18 goals across 11 away league games
- Frölunda kept only 2 clean sheets in 8 tracked home matches
BetBugs · Team to ScorelostAstorps Ff to scoreEstimated chance77%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Frölunda's strong home scoring record makes it unlikely they are kept off the scoresheet.
- Frölunda scored 28 goals in 11 league home games (2.55 per game)
- Åstorp kept only 1 clean sheet in 8 tracked away matches
- Frölunda scored three goals in their most recent home league match
BetBugs · Team to ScorewonVastra Frolunda IF to scoreEstimated chance87%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Åstorp's habit of scoring on the road makes a Frölunda win without conceding unlikely.
- Åstorp have scored in each of their last six matches
- Frölunda kept only 2 clean sheets in 8 tracked home matches
- Åstorp scored 18 goals in 11 away league games
BetBugs · Home Win to NillostNoEstimated chance87%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
First-half goals appeared in nearly every recent match for both teams and the tracked half totals are close to two per match.
- Frölunda home matches: 0.875 first-half goals scored and 0.75 conceded per match
- Åstorp away matches: 0.875 first-half goals scored and 1.0 conceded per match
- None of Frölunda's last six matches was goalless at half-time
- Åstorp's most recent match was 1-0 at half-time
BetBugs · 1st Half GoalswonOver 0.5 goals in 1st halfEstimated chance73%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Low first-half scoring rates on both sides point to at most one team scoring before the break.
- Frölunda's first-half scoring average is 0.6 goals per tracked match
- Åstorp's first-half scoring average is 0.67 goals per tracked match
- Only one team scored before half-time in most of the recent matches reviewed
BetBugs · Both Teams Score First HalfwonNoEstimated chance68%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Second halves have been more productive than first halves for these teams, especially Frölunda at home.
- Frölunda home second halves: 1.375 scored and 0.75 conceded, 2.125 goals per match
- Åstorp away second halves: 0.75 scored and 0.625 conceded, 1.375 goals per match
- Frölunda's tracked second halves overall average 1.87 goals per match
BetBugs · Goals Over Under Second HalflostOver 1.5Estimated chance52%