Dalstorps IF3Vastra Frolunda IF0

HT 1–0Fri 11 Sept 2026, 17:30 Predictions graded

Predictions8–280%

Edges3–175%

Quick Take

Pre-match view

Context last updated 10 Sep 2026, 16:14 · Europe/Bucharest

Dalstorps' strong home form and Västra Frölunda's poor away record make Dalstorps or Draw the top value bet at odds of 1.62, with a model edge of +16 points.

Avoid Over 2.5 goals and Both Teams to Score, as the market overprices them relative to the model, and Dalstorps' reported injuries could reduce scoring.

Context

Dalstorps IF sit 3rd in Division 2 - Västra Götaland with 36 points from 20 matches.
Their home record is 6 wins, 3 draws, and 1 loss, with 23 goals scored and 11 conceded. This home strength could give them an edge against Vastra Frolunda IF, who have a weaker away record.
- Dalstorps IF home record: 6 wins, 3 draws, 1 loss in 10 matches.
- Dalstorps IF have scored 23 goals and conceded 11 at home this season.
- Dalstorps IF lost only once at home, to Åstorp on 2026-05-16 (2-4).
Dalstorps enter this home match after a 2-1 loss at Galtabäck on 5 September, with the club stating the squad is dealing with injuries and tired players.
The fitness concerns could limit Dalstorps' rotation options and force them to manage minutes carefully, especially in the second half. The club still views this fixture as important for their qualifying-place push, so they may need to balance risk with the need for points.
- Dalstorps lost 2-1 at Galtabäck on 5 September.
- The club said the squad was dealing with injuries and tired players.
- Dalstorps described the Västra Frölunda fixture as the next step if it is to keep fighting for the qualifying place.
ConfirmedSources checked 10 Sep 2026, 16:13 · Europe/BucharestDalstorps IF: Förlust i Galtabäckdalstorpsif.web.sportadmin.se · 7 Sep 2026
Vastra Frolunda IF are 6th in Division 2 - Västra Götaland with 33 points from 20 matches.
Their away record is 3 wins, 2 draws, and 4 losses, with 13 goals scored and 16 conceded. This away weakness could be a factor against a strong home side like Dalstorps IF.
- Vastra Frolunda IF away record: 3 wins, 2 draws, 4 losses in 9 matches.
- Vastra Frolunda IF have scored 13 goals and conceded 16 away this season.
- Vastra Frolunda IF lost 0-4 away to Kongahälla on 2026-08-14.
Dalstorps IF and Vastra Frolunda IF have met three times in recent seasons.
The most recent match on 2026-05-31 ended 1-1. The previous two meetings in 2021 were split, with each team winning at home. This history indicates no clear dominance, but the current home advantage may tilt the balance.
- 2026-05-31: Västra Frölunda 1-1 Dalstorps (Division 2 - Västra Götaland).
- 2021-11-06: Dalstorps 0-1 Västra Frölunda.
- 2021-08-28: Västra Frölunda 3-1 Dalstorps.

BetBugs edges

Compare BetBugs' chances with the market's.

Positive edges · 1

Other edges · 3

The published chance does not exceed the market's implied chance.

Match WinnerwonUncertainty band: Near coin-flip

Dalstorps IF

2.00fair 2.08

BetBugs 48% · Market 50%

0.0ppshort

Dalstorps' strong home form (6W 3D 1L) and superior goal difference give them an edge, but the odds are slightly below our estimate.

Goals Over/UnderwonUncertainty band: Lean

Over 2.5

1.43fair 1.72

BetBugs 58% · Market 69.9%

0.0ppshort

Both teams average over 1.9 goals scored per match, but the odds imply a 70% chance of Over 2.5, far above our 58% estimate.

BetBugs probabilities

How likely BetBugs thought each outcome was.

Result4 of 4 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Dalstorps' strong home form and superior goal difference give them the edge, though fitness concerns from the intelligence report temper confidence.
- Dalstorps home record: 6W 3D 1L in 10, 23 goals scored, 11 conceded
- Dalstorps overall: 10W 6D 4L, 38 goals scored, 23 conceded
- Västra Frölunda away record: 3W 2D 4L in 9, 13 goals scored, 16 conceded
- Dalstorps recent form: LWDWW (last 5)
BetBugs · Match WinnerwonDalstorps IFEstimated chance48%
Signal quality High · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Dalstorps' strong home form and Västra Frölunda's mediocre away record make a home win or draw highly likely.
- Dalstorps home record: 6W 3D 1L in 10
- Västra Frölunda away record: 3W 2D 4L in 9
- H2H last meeting: 1-1 draw at Västra Frölunda
BetBugs · Double ChancewonDalstorps IF or DrawEstimated chance78%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Dalstorps have a slight first half edge, but the probability is low due to the draw possibility.
- Dalstorps leading at half time in 47% of recent matches
- Västra Frölunda leading at half time in 40% of recent matches
- Dalstorps first half goal difference: +0.5 per game
BetBugs · First Half WinnerwonDalstorps IFEstimated chance40%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Dalstorps are capable of leading at half time and winning, but the combined probability is modest.
- Dalstorps home win rate: 60%
- Dalstorps first half lead rate: 47%
- Västra Frölunda away loss rate: 44%
BetBugs · Ht Ft DoublewonDalstorps IF / Dalstorps IFEstimated chance30%

Goals4 of 6 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Both teams have high scoring averages, suggesting a good chance of at least three goals.
- Dalstorps average goals per match: 2.0 scored, 1.3 conceded
- Västra Frölunda average goals per match: 1.9 scored, 1.6 conceded
- Combined average total goals: 3.3 per match
BetBugs · Goals Over/UnderwonOver 2.5Estimated chance58%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Both teams consistently score and concede, making BTTS likely.
- Dalstorps scored in 13 of 15 recent matches
- Västra Frölunda scored in 12 of 15 recent matches
- Both teams have conceded regularly: Dalstorps 1.3 per game, Västra Frölunda 1.6 per game
BetBugs · Both Teams to ScorelostYesEstimated chance62%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
First half scoring averages suggest a moderate chance of over 1.5 goals, but confidence is low due to variability.
- Dalstorps first half goals average: 0.9 scored, 0.4 conceded
- Västra Frölunda first half goals average: 0.8 scored, 0.9 conceded
- Combined first half average: 1.7 goals
BetBugs · 1st Half GoalslostOver 1.5 goals in 1st halfEstimated chance45%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Second half scoring averages are higher, but confidence remains low without detailed half-by-half data.
- Dalstorps second half goals average: 1.1 scored, 0.9 conceded
- Västra Frölunda second half goals average: 1.1 scored, 0.7 conceded
- Combined second half average: 2.0 goals
BetBugs · Goals Over Under Second HalfwonOver 1.5Estimated chance50%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Dalstorps' home defense is solid but not dominant, and Västra Frölunda usually score away.
- Dalstorps home goals conceded average: 1.1 per game
- Dalstorps kept clean sheets in 3 of 10 home matches
- Västra Frölunda away goals scored average: 1.44 per game
BetBugs · Team to ScorewonVastra Frolunda IF not to scoreEstimated chance35%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Dalstorps' strong home scoring makes a Västra Frölunda clean sheet unlikely.
- Västra Frölunda away clean sheets: 1 in 9 matches
- Dalstorps home goals scored average: 2.3 per game
- Dalstorps failed to score at home only once in 10 matches
BetBugs · Team to ScorewonDalstorps IF to scoreEstimated chance75%

Markets to Avoid

High-risk markets where price or context leaves too little cushion.

Implied 37% vs our estimate of 30% leaves no value; the away side's poor away form makes this a trap.

Prediction history

Dalstorps IF has been highly reliable when projected to exceed 2.5 goals

Dalstorps IF has fulfilled 4 of 5 Over 2.5 goals predictions, a strong 80% fulfilment rate. The average estimated probability was 60.4%, with an expected 3 fulfilled predictions, so they outperformed expectation. At home, they have fulfilled all 3 such predictions, while away they fulfilled 1 of 2.

Recent evidence for Dalstorps IF5 matches

Date / competitionMatch resultPredictedActualResult

26 Jun·Division 2 - Västra Götaland