La Liga 2Full timeFeatured

Predictions graded

Eibar2Cordoba0

HT 2–0Sun 24 May 2026, 16:30 Predictions graded

Predictions8–280%

Edges3–175%

PossPossession 41%–59%ShotsShots 9–20On targetOn target 2–5CornersCorners 2–13

Quick Take

Pre-match view

Context last updated 20 May 2026, 19:49 · Europe/Bucharest

Eibar's strong home form and playoff motivation give them the edge, but the value lies in the first-half draw (2.30) and corners over 9.5 (1.85), where our estimates exceed the implied odds.

The match is likely to be tight and low-scoring, with a cautious start before second-half intensity rises.

Context

San José stated 'the playoff is more expensive than ever' and 'we cannot fail' in his 16 May press conference.
- Eibar sit 8th, two points behind the playoff places with two games left, making a home win essential.
Córdoba have 60 points after 40 games, six behind 6th-placed Castellón and Burgos.
- All playoff contenders play simultaneously, meaning Córdoba could be out of contention before full-time if they trail and rivals lead.
Eibar home record: 13W-4D-3L, 35 goals scored, 17 conceded in 20 matches.
- Last 5 home matches: 4 wins, 1 loss, with 12 goals scored and 6 conceded.
- 8 home clean sheets this season, including a 3-0 win over AD Ceuta and 0-0 draw with Burgos.
Martón suffered the injury at Mirandés but was declared '100% available' by San José on 16 May.
- Eibar still have Peru Nolaskoain and Guruzeta out, but Martón's return adds depth up front.

BetBugs edges

Compare BetBugs' chances with the market's.

Positive edges · 3

BetBugs probabilities

How likely BetBugs thought each outcome was.

Result2 of 3 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Eibar's strong home form and high-stakes motivation to keep playoff hopes alive give them a clear edge, supported by a dominant H2H home win last season.
- Eibar home record: 13W-4D-3L, 35GF-17GA in 20 matches this season
- Cordoba away record: 8W-5D-7L, 29GF-31GA in 20 matches
- Eibar last 5 home matches: 4W-0D-1L, 12GF-6GA
- H2H last home meeting: Eibar 4-1 Cordoba (May 2025)
BetBugs · Match WinnerwonEibarEstimated chance45%
Signal quality High · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Eibar's home resilience and Cordoba's inconsistent away form make an Eibar win or draw highly probable, especially with Eibar's superior defensive record.
- Eibar home record: only 3 losses in 20 home games this season
- Cordoba away record: 7 losses in 20 away games
- Eibar last 15 overall: 10W-2D-3L, 1.5 GF, 0.7 GA per game
- Cordoba last 15 overall: 6W-1D-8L, 1.5 GF, 2.0 GA per game
BetBugs · Double ChancewonEibar or DrawEstimated chance75%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Eibar's tendency to start cautiously and Cordoba's poor first-half performances make a draw at halftime the most likely scenario.
- Eibar first half record: led at HT in 60% of last 15, but only 0.9 GF
- Cordoba first half record: led at HT in 13%, trailed in 47% of last 15
- Eibar last 5 home: led at HT in 2, drew 2, trailed 1
- Cordoba last 5 away: led at HT in 0, drew 3, trailed 2
BetBugs · First Half WinnerlostDrawEstimated chance50%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Eibar's ability to push for a win in the second half, especially at home with playoff stakes, supports a draw-to-win pattern, though it's a low-probability specific outcome.
- Eibar home record when drawing at HT: 4W-2D-1L in 7 such matches this season
- Cordoba away record when drawing at HT: 2W-2D-2L in 6 such matches
- Eibar last 5: drew at HT in 2, won both full-time
- Cordoba last 5: drew at HT in 3, won 1, lost 1, drew 1 full-time
BetBugs · Ht Ft Doublenot gradableDraw / EibarEstimated chance25%

Goals4 of 5 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Eibar's tight home defense and Cordoba's moderate away scoring, combined with recent low-scoring trends, suggest a match with fewer than three goals.
- Eibar home goals average: 1.75 GF, 0.85 GA per game this season
- Cordoba away goals average: 1.45 GF, 1.55 GA per game
- Eibar last 5 matches: 4 of 5 had under 2.5 goals
- H2H last 3 meetings: 0-0, 4-1, 2-1 (two of three under 2.5)
BetBugs · Goals Over/UnderwonUnder 2.5Estimated chance55%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Eibar's solid home defense could shut out Cordoba, but Cordoba's recent away scoring form introduces uncertainty, making a clean sheet for one side plausible.
- Eibar home clean sheets: 8 in 20 home games (40%)
- Cordoba away failed to score: 5 in 20 away games (25%)
- Eibar last 5 home matches: 2 clean sheets
- Cordoba last 5 away matches: scored in 4 of 5
BetBugs · Both Teams to ScorewonNoEstimated chance55%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Eibar's defensive solidity at home gives them a decent chance of a clean sheet, though Cordoba's ability to score on the road tempers confidence.
- Eibar home clean sheets: 8 in 20 (40%)
- Cordoba away failed to score: 5 in 20 (25%)
- Eibar last 5 home: 2 clean sheets
- Cordoba last 5 away: failed to score once
BetBugs · Team to ScorewonCordoba not to scoreEstimated chance40%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Both teams tend to start slowly, with Eibar's strong first-half defense and Cordoba's low first-half scoring output pointing to a quiet opening period.
- Eibar first half goals: 0.9 per game, conceded 0.3 per game in last 15
- Cordoba first half goals: 0.4 per game, conceded 1.2 per game in last 15
- Eibar last 5 matches: 3 of 5 had 0 first-half goals
- Cordoba last 5 matches: 3 of 5 had 0 or 1 first-half goal
BetBugs · 1st Half GoalslostUnder 1.5 goals in 1st halfEstimated chance65%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Second-half intensity often increases in playoff-deciding matches, and both teams have shown the ability to score after the break, though Eibar's defense keeps it a coin flip.
- Eibar second half goals: 0.6 per game, conceded 0.4 per game in last 15
- Cordoba second half goals: 1.1 per game, conceded 0.8 per game in last 15
- Eibar last 5 home: 3 of 5 had over 1.5 second-half goals
- Cordoba last 5 away: 3 of 5 had over 1.5 second-half goals
BetBugs · Goals Over Under Second HalfwonOver 1.5Estimated chance50%

Match stats2 of 2 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Cordoba's high corner count, especially away from home, combined with Eibar's tendency to concede corners, makes a total over 9.5 corners likely.
- Eibar home corners average: 3.5 per game, concede 5.5 per game (total 9.0)
- Cordoba away corners average: 7.7 per game, concede 5.1 per game (total 12.8)
- Cordoba last 5 matches: 4 of 5 had over 9.5 corners
- Eibar last 5 home matches: 3 of 5 had over 9.5 corners
BetBugs · Corners Over/UnderwonOver 9.5Estimated chance60%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Both teams average over 2.5 cards per game, and recent matches consistently exceed 4.5 total cards, indicating a physical, high-stakes encounter.
- Eibar home yellow cards: 2.6 per game in last 15
- Cordoba away yellow cards: 2.5 per game in last 15
- Eibar last 5 matches: 4 of 5 had over 4.5 cards
- Cordoba last 5 matches: 4 of 5 had over 4.5 cards
BetBugs · Cards Over/UnderwonOver 4.5Estimated chance60%

Head-to-Head

2W · 2D · 1W

D0-0CordobavEibarDec 13, 2025SEG

W4-1EibarvCordobaMay 25, 2025SEG

L2-1CordobavEibarDec 17, 2024SEG

W3-0EibarvCordobaMay 23, 2015LL

D1-1CordobavEibarJan 16, 2015LL

Eibar: 2 clean sheets2.6 goals/game avg

League Table

Segunda División 2025/2026

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF-GA	Pts	Form
8	Eibar	40	18	10	12	49-38	64	LWLWW
9	Cordoba	40	17	9	14	56-58	60	LWWWW

4pt gap between teams

Recent Form

Eibar

L1-2Cultural LeonesaMay 16SEG

W1-0MirandesMay 10SEG

L2-4MalagaMay 2SEG

W3-0AlbaceteApr 24SEG

W2-1HuescaApr 19SEG

D0-0ValladolidApr 13SEG

W3-0AD Ceuta FCApr 5SEG

W1-0Real Sociedad IIApr 2SEG

W3-1Las PalmasMar 29SEG

W1-0FC AndorraMar 21SEG

D0-0BurgosMar 15SEG

W1-0LeganesMar 8SEG

W3-1CadizMar 1SEG

L0-1Deportivo La CorunaFeb 21SEG

W2-1Racing SantanderFeb 15SEG

Cordoba

L1-2AlbaceteMay 15SEG

W1-0Granada CFMay 10SEG

W2-1CastellónMay 2SEG

W3-2Sporting GijonApr 26SEG

W2-1Cultural LeonesaApr 18SEG

W1-0ZaragozaApr 11SEG

W3-1CadizApr 4SEG

L0-2Deportivo La CorunaMar 31SEG

D2-2MirandesMar 27SEG

L0-4BurgosMar 22SEG

L0-2Real Sociedad IIMar 15SEG

L3-4Racing SantanderMar 8SEG

L1-4FC AndorraMar 2SEG

L2-3AD Ceuta FCFeb 25SEG

L1-2AlmeriaFeb 21SEG

Squad & Injuries

Eibar

29 available

Attackers7

Midfielders10

Defenders9

Goalkeeper3

Cordoba

31 available

Attackers9

Midfielders7

Defenders12

Goalkeeper3

Quick Take

Context

BetBugs edges

Draw

Under 2.5

Over 9.5

Eibar or Draw

Under 1.5

Result2 of 3 landed

Goals4 of 5 landed

Match stats2 of 2 landed

Head-to-Head

League Table

Recent Form

Eibar

Cordoba

Squad & Injuries

Eibar

Cordoba