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AntofagastaDeportes Iquique

Sun 27 Sept 2026, 15:3027 Sept, 15:30

15Probabilities7Priced7Edges84%Strongest

Strong leanLeanSlight leanNear coin-flip

Quick Take

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Context last updated 26 Sep 2026, 17:39 · Europe/Bucharest

Level at 1-1, these two settle a Copa Chile quarter-final place in Antofagasta, where the hosts have won four of seven home games.

Antofagasta look the likelier winners, though Iquique have held them to 1-1 twice in the past six weeks. Two quoted prices offer something: level at half-time at 2.1, and over 2.5 goals at 2.0. The 1.95 for Antofagasta to win is not one of them.

Context

The tie is decided in one game in Antofagasta, where the hosts have won four of seven home matches while Iquique concede almost nothing before half-time. Hernán Peña's comments about a small squad are a reported freshness concern for the visitors, not a confirmed absence.

The tie is level after a 1-1 first leg at the Estadio Tierra de Campeones, so the second leg alone decides who reaches the quarter-finals. Antofagasta host at the Estadio Regional Calvo y Bascuñán, the ground the squad returned to straight after the first leg to prepare for Sunday's 12:30 kick-off. That setting matters because Iquique must now get a result on the road, with their coach's own post-match view being that the tie remains there to be won despite spells where his team lost its shape. The caveat is that the level scoreline came from a game Iquique led from the third minute, so the tie offers no settled read on which side's approach travels better.
- Deportes Iquique and Deportes Antofagasta drew 1-1 at the Estadio Tierra de Campeones in the first leg of the Copa Chile round of 16 on 23 September.
- The second leg is set for Sunday 27 September at 12:30 local time (15:30 GMT) at the Estadio Regional Calvo y Bascuñán, with Antofagasta hosting.
ConfirmedSources checked 26 Sep 2026, 17:37 · Europe/BucharestCooperativawww.cooperativa.cl · 23 Sep 2026
Peña, in charge at Deportes Iquique, said after the first leg that his team had the game to win and that 90 minutes remain to qualify in Antofagasta. His reference to a short squad points to a freshness and rotation constraint for the away leg rather than a change in how the side sets up. The remarks come from local radio coverage of his post-match comments and no specific absence or injury is attached to them, so they set a risk to monitor rather than a confirmed selection problem. The practical effect on Sunday's XI is therefore still open.
- After the 1-1 first leg, Deportes Iquique coach Hernán Peña said his side should have won the match and that 90 minutes remained to qualify in Antofagasta.
- He pointed to spells in which his team lost its order and to the physical strain on a short squad.
ReportedSources checked 26 Sep 2026, 17:37 · Europe/Bucharest
Marcoleta's squad came back to Antofagasta after the first leg to prepare at the Estadio Regional Calvo y Bascuñán, where the club put tickets on sale for the Sunday 12:30 kick-off. His earlier build-up was already organised around recovery and set-piece work, with the group training double sessions after the clásico against Cobreloa. That points to a home side set up to attack the tie in front of its own crowd, having finished the first leg the stronger of the two teams. The limitation is that the second-half improvement came against an Iquique side that had led since the third minute, so it is not yet evidence Antofagasta will control the return.
- After the first leg, Antofagasta returned home to prepare for the return at the Estadio Regional Calvo y Bascuñán, with the aim of making home advantage count.
- Before the first leg, Marcoleta's group trained in double sessions focused on physical recovery after the clásico against Cobreloa and on set pieces.
- The club opened ticket sales for the second leg on 25 September.
ReportedSources checked 26 Sep 2026, 17:37 · Europe/Bucharest
That 4-0 is the most recent meeting in Antofagasta in the record, so the hosts have shown they can win this fixture heavily on their own ground. It does not settle Sunday's second leg: the two meetings since, both in Iquique in August and September 2026, finished 1-1, and Iquique have lost only two of seven away games. The return leg is a one-game decider for a quarter-final place.
- 29 March 2026: Antofagasta 4-0 Deportes Iquique in the Primera B, played in Antofagasta (one match).

BetBugs edges

Compare BetBugs' chances with the market's.

Positive edges · 2

Other edges · 5

The published chance does not exceed the market's implied chance.

Both Teams Score First HalfUncertainty band: Strong lean

No

1.15fair 1.19

BetBugs 84% · Market 87%

−3.0ppshort

First-half goals against both of these teams are rare, making one side scoring at most the likely case.

Double ChanceUncertainty band: Strong lean

Antofagasta or Draw

1.25fair 1.32

BetBugs 76% · Market 80%

−4.0ppshort

Antofagasta win most home games, score freely there and have beaten Iquique heavily in this stadium twice in the past year. Iquique have kept this opponent level twice recently and their low concession rate supports another tight, level contest.

1st Half GoalsUncertainty band: Strong lean

Over 0.5 goals in 1st half

1.40fair 1.52

BetBugs 66% · Market 71.4%

−5.4ppshort

Both teams score before half-time at a reasonable rate when playing at home or away respectively.

Both Teams to ScoreUncertainty band: Slight lean

Yes

1.88fair 1.92

BetBugs 52% · Market 53.2%

−1.2ppshort

Each side has scored in the majority of their relevant home or away matches and both found the net in the first leg.

Match WinnerUncertainty band: Near coin-flip

Antofagasta

1.95fair 2.08

BetBugs 48% · Market 51.3%

−3.3ppshort

Antofagasta win most home games, score freely there and have beaten Iquique heavily in this stadium twice in the past year.

BetBugs probabilities

How likely BetBugs thinks each outcome is.

Result5 outcomes · top 80%

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Market price 1.95
The read
Antofagasta win most home games, score freely there and have beaten Iquique heavily in this stadium twice in the past year.
- Antofagasta home: 4 wins, 2 draws, 1 loss in 7, scoring 2.0 and conceding 0.86 per game
- Antofagasta won the last two home meetings with Iquique 4-0 and 3-1
- Iquique away: 3 wins, 2 draws, 2 losses in 7
- Iquique's coach spoke of physical strain on a small squad before the trip
BetBugs · Match WinnerAntofagastaMarket price1.95Estimated chance48%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Market price 2.10
The read
Both teams concede very little before the break, which points to a level first half.
- Iquique have conceded 0.13 first-half goals per game across 15 matches
- Antofagasta concede 0.29 first-half goals per home game
- Both recent head-to-heads were level at half-time or finished 1-1
BetBugs · First Half WinnerDrawMarket price2.10Estimated chance54%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Antofagasta finish home games strongly and Iquique concede more after the break on their travels.
- Antofagasta average 1.0 second-half goals at home
- Antofagasta concede 0.57 second-half goals at home
- Iquique concede 0.86 second-half goals away
BetBugs · Second Half WinnerAntofagastaEstimated chance38%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Market price 1.25
The read
Antofagasta win most home games, score freely there and have beaten Iquique heavily in this stadium twice in the past year. Iquique have kept this opponent level twice recently and their low concession rate supports another tight, level contest.
- Antofagasta home: 4 wins, 2 draws, 1 loss in 7, scoring 2.0 and conceding 0.86 per game
- Antofagasta won the last two home meetings with Iquique 4-0 and 3-1
- Two 1-1 draws between these clubs in the past six weeks
- Antofagasta drew 2 of 7 home games; Iquique drew 2 of 7 away
BetBugs · Double ChanceAntofagasta or DrawMarket price1.25Estimated chance76%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Antofagasta start well at home but Iquique's first-half defence is the strongest part of their game. Both teams concede very little before the break, which points to a level first half.
- Antofagasta average 1.0 first-half goals at home
- Antofagasta concede 0.29 first-half goals at home
- Iquique have conceded 0.13 first-half goals per game across 15 matches
- Antofagasta concede 0.29 first-half goals per home game
BetBugs · Double Chance First HalfAntofagasta or DrawEstimated chance80%

Goals10 outcomes · top 84%

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Market price 2.00
The read
Both sides' home and away games average close to three goals, and Antofagasta have produced two big scoring days recently.
- Antofagasta home games average 2.86 combined goals
- Iquique away games average 2.86 combined goals
- Antofagasta scored 4 and 3 in two of their last six matches
BetBugs · Goals Over/UnderOver 2.5Market price2.00Estimated chance52%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Market price 1.88
The read
Each side has scored in the majority of their relevant home or away matches and both found the net in the first leg.
- Both teams scored in 4 of Antofagasta's 7 home games
- Both teams scored in 4 of Iquique's 7 away games
- Iquique scored in the first leg and Antofagasta scored in both recent meetings
BetBugs · Both Teams to ScoreYesMarket price1.88Estimated chance52%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Antofagasta have scored at two goals a game at home, so two or more is a realistic outcome.
- Antofagasta average 2.0 goals per home game
- Antofagasta scored 3 against Temuco at home and 4 away at Copiapo
- Antofagasta failed to score in 2 of 7 home games
BetBugs · Home Goals TotalAntofagasta over 1.5Estimated chance51%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Iquique's recent scoring has been thin and Antofagasta concede little at home.
- Iquique have scored 3 goals in their last 6 matches combined
- Iquique blanked in three of their last six
- Antofagasta conceded 0.86 goals per home game
BetBugs · Away Goals TotalDeportes Iquique under 1.5Estimated chance56%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Iquique have scored in most of their away games and found the net in the first leg of this tie.
- Iquique scored in 5 of 7 away matches
- Iquique scored in the first leg at home
- Antofagasta conceded in 4 of 7 home matches
BetBugs · Team to ScoreDeportes Iquique to scoreEstimated chance63%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Antofagasta score regularly at home and Iquique concede in most away games.
- Antofagasta scored in 5 of 7 home matches
- Antofagasta average 2.0 goals per home game
- Iquique conceded 6 goals in 7 away matches
BetBugs · Team to ScoreAntofagasta to scoreEstimated chance81%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Iquique's away scoring makes a clean-sheet home win the less likely outcome of an Antofagasta victory.
- Iquique scored in 5 of 7 away matches
- Iquique scored in the first leg
- Antofagasta conceded in 4 of 7 home matches
BetBugs · Home Win to NilNoEstimated chance78%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Market price 1.40
The read
Both teams score before half-time at a reasonable rate when playing at home or away respectively.
- Antofagasta average 1.0 first-half goals at home
- Iquique average 0.71 first-half goals away
- First-leg goal came in the third minute
BetBugs · 1st Half GoalsOver 0.5 goals in 1st halfMarket price1.40Estimated chance66%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Market price 1.15
The read
First-half goals against both of these teams are rare, making one side scoring at most the likely case.
- Iquique have conceded 2 first-half goals in 15 matches
- Antofagasta conceded 0.29 first-half goals per home game
- Iquique scored only one first-half goal in their last six matches
BetBugs · Both Teams Score First HalfNoMarket price1.15Estimated chance84%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Recent games involving both teams have been low-scoring overall, which limits second-half output.
- Antofagasta's last six matches produced 9 goals in total
- Iquique's last six matches produced 8 goals in total
- Neither recent head-to-head produced more than two goals
BetBugs · Goals Over Under Second HalfUnder 1.5Estimated chance52%