Parma vs Pisa: result, stats and head-to-head

Result3 of 3 landed

Signal quality High · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Structural home/away edge (Core 5 #3) is decisive: Pisa have not won a single away league game all season, so avoiding defeat at Parma already implies a home/draw outcome in the strong majority of equivalent fixtures.
- Parma sit 14th with 39 pts vs Pisa 20th with 18 pts — 21-point gap in current Serie A table
- Pisa away record 2025-26: 0W-8D-8L in 16 away matches, scoring only 16 and conceding 39
- Parma home record this season: 3W-6D-7L — draws common, losses to top-tier opponents
- Pisa recent 5 league matches: LLLLW (single win vs Cagliari with opponent red card)
BetBugs · Double ChancewonParma or DrawEstimated chance78%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Combines structural home/away edge (#3) and H2H psychology (#2: Parma won the 3 most recent meetings) — Pisa's complete inability to win away gives Parma the clear edge despite modest attacking output.
- Parma rank 14 (39 pts) vs Pisa rank 20 (18 pts) — Pisa relegation-bound with 21-pt gap
- Pisa 0 away wins in 16 matches (0% away win rate in Serie A 2025-26)
- Parma won last 3 direct meetings including the reverse fixture this season (Pisa 0-1 Parma, Dec 2025)
- Parma averaged 0.9 goals scored in last 5 with competitive draws vs Napoli and Lazio
BetBugs · Match WinnerwonParmaEstimated chance48%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Combines H2H psychology (#2) and structural edge (#3): with draw as a stake refund, Parma's clear superiority and Pisa's impossible away form give strong support to Parma avoiding defeat.
- Parma won reverse fixture 1-0 away at Pisa in December 2025
- Pisa 0 wins in 16 away matches this season
- Parma won last 3 H2H meetings
- 21-point league gap between the two clubs
BetBugs · Handicap ResultwonParma -0Estimated chance60%

Goals4 of 5 landed

Signal quality High · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Tactical matchup edge (#5) and stakes (#1): Pisa's crisis under new coach Hiljemark incentivises an ultra-defensive, point-preserving away setup, and Parma's attack has been blunted (0.9 gpg), strongly favouring a low-scoring game.
- Parma averaging only 0.9 goals for / 1.0 against in last 10 — low-event pattern
- Pisa averaging 0.5 goals for / 2.0 against in last 10; away goals for 1.0/game (16 in 16)
- Parma recent home matches vs Napoli (1-1), Cremonese (0-2) — 2 of last 3 home games under 2.5
- H2H: last 5 meetings produced 2, 5, 3, 1, 0 goals — 3 of 5 at or below 2.5
BetBugs · Goals Over/UnderwonUnder 2.5Estimated chance68%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Pisa's anaemic away scoring (Core 5 #5 tactical + #3 structural) is the primary driver — they routinely fail to find the net on the road, making BTTS No the favoured side.
- Pisa failed to score in 3 of last 5 matches (0 vs Roma, Torino, Como)
- Pisa away: only 16 goals in 16 games (1.0 per away match, often blank)
- Parma recent home games: kept 0 clean sheets in last 5 home matches per provided form
- H2H: 3 of last 5 meetings saw at least one side fail to score
BetBugs · Both Teams to ScorewonNoEstimated chance58%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Structural edge (#3) and tactical matchup (#5): Pisa's abysmal away attack plus Parma's willingness to sit deep (46.7% possession, 10 shots/g) creates a realistic scenario where Pisa do not score at all.
- Pisa scored in only 8 of 16 away matches (16 goals, often 0 or 1)
- Pisa blanked in recent games vs Roma (0-3), Torino (0-1), Como (0-5)
- Parma beat Udinese 1-0 and drew 0-0 style games recently, showing defensive base
- Parma home goals against: 22 in 16 — modest but not elite
BetBugs · Team to ScorewonPisa not to scoreEstimated chance42%
Signal quality High · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Motivation/tactics (#1, #5): Pisa's defensive crisis posture and inability to score away (0 or 1 goal in most trips) makes fewer than 2 goals the dominant outcome.
- Pisa averaged 0.5 goals per game in last 10 matches overall
- Pisa away: 16 goals in 16 games = exactly 1.0 per away match
- In last 5, Pisa scored 0,0,0,1,3 — median 0
- Pisa trailing at HT in 40% of games, leading only 10%
BetBugs · Away Goals TotalwonPisa Under 1.5Estimated chance72%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Tactical (#5) and stakes (#1): cautious opening likely given Pisa's defensive, damage-control away approach and Parma's sluggish attack, with Parma 1H scored average (0.4) pointing to a scoreless 40 minutes being plausible but not dominant — hence LOW confidence.
- Parma 1H goals scored 0.4/g, 1H conceded 0.2/g in last 10 — very low 1H activity
- Pisa 1H goals scored 0.2/g, 1H conceded 0.7/g in last 10
- Parma 1H goals combined expected ≈ 0.6 for + 0.7 against ≈ under-skewed
- Parma leading at HT 20% / trailing 0% of games — frequent 0-0 halves
BetBugs · 1st Half GoalslostUnder 0.5 goals in 1st halfEstimated chance38%

Match stats1 of 3 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Tactical matchup (#5): both sides post low corner averages, and Pisa in particular barely generates attacking set pieces (3.2/g), making Under 9.5 the statistically supported side.
- Parma averaging 4.6 corners per game in last 10
- Pisa averaging just 3.2 corners per game in last 10
- Combined average ≈ 7.8 corners — well below 9.5
- Recent Pisa games: 5, 3, 1, 1, 1 corners — very low corner volume
BetBugs · Corners Over/UnderlostUnder 9.5Estimated chance62%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Tactical (#5): with both teams averaging under 3 SoT each and a defensive script expected (#1 stakes), total on-target shots are likely to stay modest.
- Parma 2.7 shots on target per game in last 10
- Pisa 2.7 shots on target per game in last 10
- Combined ≈ 5.4 SoT — low-volume attacking profile from both
- Parma concede 46.7% possession but restrict opponent SoT (3 vs Udinese, 3 vs Lazio)
BetBugs · Shots on Target Over/UnderwonUnder 8.5Estimated chance60%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Tactical matchup (#5): high foul count from both teams (especially Pisa at 13.6) combined with relegation-pressure stakes (#1) historically pushes cards past 3.5.
- Parma averaging 1.7 yellow cards per game in last 10
- Pisa averaging 1.7 yellow cards per game in last 10
- Combined ≈ 3.4 yellows plus any reds; Pisa saw reds in 1 of last 5
- Pisa fouls 13.6/g, Parma 11.2/g — high foul volume on both sides
BetBugs · Cards Over/UnderlostOver 3.5Estimated chance66%

The percentage shows our estimated chance. Tap a row for the context and share card.18+ · predictions, not guarantees

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF-GA	Pts	Form
14	Parma	33	9	12	12	24-40	39	WDDLL
20	Pisa Relegation - Serie B	33	2	12	19	24-60	18	LLLLW

Parma1Pisa0

Quick Take

Context

BetBugs edges

Under 2.5

BetBugs probabilities

Result3 of 3 landed

Goals4 of 5 landed

Match stats1 of 3 landed

Head-to-Head

League Table

Recent Form

Parma

Pisa

Squad & Injuries

Parma

Pisa