AllsvenskanFull time
Predictions gradedPre-match view
Häcken are favourites at home, but the odds (1.48) imply a 68% win probability while our model gives only 55% — no value.
Over 2.5 goals is also overpriced (implied 71.4% vs our 60%). The best approach is to avoid the heavily juiced markets and wait for live opportunities, as the recent 3-3 H2H shows this fixture can be volatile.
Compare BetBugs' chances with the market's.
Other edges · 4
The published chance does not exceed the market's implied chance.
HackenBetBugs 55% · Market 68%
The market price of 1.48 implies a 68% chance, but our model only gives Hacken 55% at home, so the favourite is overpriced and offers no value.
BetBugs 80% · Market 87%
The double chance price of 1.15 implies an 87% probability, but our model estimates only 80%, meaning the market has already priced in Hacken's strong home form and left no value.
BetBugs 60% · Market 71.4%
Both teams have high-scoring home/away splits and the recent H2H was a 6-goal thriller, but the odds already price in a high-scoring game, leaving no value.
How likely BetBugs thought each outcome was.
High-risk markets where price or context leaves too little cushion.
Implied 68% leaves no cushion vs our 55% estimate; price already reflects the directional read.
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF-GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | Hacken Qualifying | 18 | 8 | 7 | 3 | 32-26 | 31 |
| 8 |  Vasteras SK | 18 | 7 | 5 | 6 | 25-32 | 26 |