Ligue 1Full time

Predictions graded

Brest1Racing Strasbourg2

HT 1–2Wed 13 May 2026, 17:00 Predictions graded

Predictions5–456%

Edges4–267%

PossPossession 48%–52%ShotsShots 21–10On targetOn target 6–5CornersCorners 5–4

Quick Take

Pre-match view

Context last updated 12 May 2026, 11:30 · Europe/Bucharest

Brest's unbeaten H2H run and home form make them hard to beat, but the real value is in the cards (over 3.5 at 2.80, 62% model probability) and corners (under 9.5 at 1.80, 60% model probability) markets.

Goals are likely, but the main lines offer no edge, while Strasbourg's injuries and mid-season coaching change add uncertainty.

Context

Brest's last five Ligue 1 results: 0W-2D-3L, with defeats to PSG, Paris FC, and Rennes.
- They have conceded 12 goals in those five matches, including four against Paris FC and four against Rennes.
- Even at home, they have only one win in their last three (1-1-1), a 3-3 draw with Lens and a 3-4 loss to Rennes.
Emegha has been Strasbourg's leading scorer this season and is confirmed out with a muscle injury.
- Strasbourg also miss defender Anselmino (knee) and attacker Panichelli (knee), while midfielder Nanasi is a doubt through illness.
- Without Emegha, Strasbourg must rely on secondary scorers against a Brest side that has kept them to two goals in the last four meetings.
Since May 2022, Brest have gone 4W-3D-0L against Strasbourg, including a 3-0 and a 3-1 win.
- Strasbourg have scored only two goals across the last four encounters.
- The most recent meeting in November 2025 ended 2-1 to Brest, continuing the pattern.
O'Neil was appointed on 7 January 2026, one day after Liam Rosenior departed for Chelsea.
- Strasbourg's form under O'Neil has been mixed: they have lost three of their last five league games.
- The team is still adapting to his tactical approach, which could be a factor away from home.

BetBugs edges

Compare BetBugs' chances with the market's.

Positive edges · 3

BetBugs probabilities

How likely BetBugs thought each outcome was.

Result0 of 3 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
H2H psychology strongly favors Brest, who have dominated this fixture for nearly four years, and their solid home form gives them an edge despite recent poor overall results.
- Brest are unbeaten in last 7 H2H meetings (4W-3D-0L), winning 3 of last 4.
- Brest home record this season: 7W-4D-4L, 26 goals scored, 20 conceded in 15 matches.
- Strasbourg away record: 5W-5D-6L, 26 goals scored, 27 conceded in 16 matches.
- Brest last 5 form: 0W-2D-3L, but 3 of those losses were away; home form in last 5: 1W-1D-1L.
BetBugs · Match WinnerlostBrestEstimated chance38%
Signal quality High · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
The H2H dominance and Brest's resilience at home, combined with Strasbourg's key injuries, make a Brest win or draw highly probable.
- Brest have not lost to Strasbourg in last 7 meetings (4W-3D-0L).
- Brest home record: 11 unbeaten in 15 (7W-4D), losing only 4.
- Strasbourg away record: 10 unbeaten in 16 (5W-5D), losing 6.
- Strasbourg missing key attacker Emegha (muscle) and defender Anselmino (knee).
BetBugs · Double ChancelostBrest or DrawEstimated chance68%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Both sides have high draw rates at half-time, and their first-half scoring averages are identical, making a stalemate at the break likely.
- Brest first-half record: 27% lead, 47% trail, 26% draw at HT overall; at home, 5 of last 10 were draws at HT.
- Strasbourg first-half record: 27% lead, 33% trail, 40% draw at HT; away, 6 of last 10 were draws at HT.
- Last 5 H2H: 2 draws at HT, 2 Brest leads, 1 Strasbourg lead.
- Both teams average 0.6 first-half goals scored, suggesting balanced early phases.
BetBugs · First Half WinnerlostDrawEstimated chance45%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Brest's tendency to improve after half-time at home, coupled with Strasbourg's second-half struggles on the road, gives the hosts a slight edge in the final 45 minutes.
- Brest have won the second half in 3 of last 5 home matches (2 draws, 0 losses).
- Strasbourg have lost the second half in 4 of last 6 away matches (1 win, 1 draw).
- H2H: Brest won second half in 3 of last 5 meetings (1 draw, 1 loss).
- Brest's home resilience often shows late; Strasbourg's away fragility increases after break.
BetBugs · Second Half Winnernot gradableBrestEstimated chance35%

Goals4 of 4 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Both teams' home/away splits show high-scoring tendencies, and recent H2H history supports a match with at least three goals.
- Brest home matches average 3.07 total goals (26 scored, 20 conceded in 15 games).
- Strasbourg away matches average 3.31 total goals (26 scored, 27 conceded in 16 games).
- Last 4 H2H meetings: 3-1, 3-0, 0-0, 2-1 – three of four had over 2.5 goals.
- Brest last 5 home matches: 3 of 5 had over 2.5 goals.
BetBugs · Goals Over/UnderwonOver 2.5Estimated chance55%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Both sides have consistent scoring and conceding records on the road/home, and defensive absences on both ends increase the likelihood of goals at both ends.
- Brest scored in 12 of 15 home matches this season; conceded in 11 of 15.
- Strasbourg scored in 13 of 16 away matches; conceded in 13 of 16.
- Both teams scored in 4 of last 5 H2H meetings.
- Brest missing defenders Locko and possibly Chardonnet/Coulibaly; Strasbourg missing attacker Emegha.
BetBugs · Both Teams to ScorewonYesEstimated chance58%
Signal quality High · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Both teams' first-half stats and recent H2H patterns strongly indicate at least one goal before the break.
- Brest average 0.6 first-half goals scored, 0.7 conceded overall; at home, 4 of last 5 had first-half goals.
- Strasbourg average 0.6 first-half goals scored, 0.5 conceded; away, 5 of last 6 had first-half goals.
- Last 5 H2H: first-half goals in 4 of 5 (3-0, 0-0, 1-0, 1-0, 0-0 at HT).
- Brest trailing at half-time in 47% of matches, Strasbourg leading in 27% – early action likely.
BetBugs · 1st Half GoalswonOver 0.5 goals in 1st halfEstimated chance72%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Second halves tend to be more open in matches involving these teams, and H2H history shows a pattern of goals after the break.
- Brest home matches: 12 of 15 had second-half goals, with 7 having over 1.5 second-half goals.
- Strasbourg away matches: 13 of 16 had second-half goals, with 8 having over 1.5 second-half goals.
- Last 4 H2H meetings: second-half goals in all 4, with 3 having over 1.5.
- Brest concede 1.7 goals per game on average, many late; Strasbourg score 1.2 but concede 1.3.
BetBugs · Goals Over Under Second HalfwonOver 1.5Estimated chance55%

Match stats1 of 2 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Brest's low corner count and the historical H2H trend of moderate corner totals suggest a match with fewer than 10 corners.
- Brest average only 2.9 corners per game overall, 3.1 at home in last 5.
- Strasbourg average 4.6 corners per game, but away they average 4.1 in last 5.
- Combined average corners in Brest home games: 8.2 (Brest 3.1 + opponent 5.1).
- Last 5 H2H: total corners were 5, 7, 9, 11, 8 – only one over 9.5.
BetBugs · Corners Over/UnderwonUnder 9.5Estimated chance60%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Both teams have consistent disciplinary records that push combined cards above 3.5, and recent H2H meetings have been feisty enough to support this.
- Brest average 1.9 yellow cards per game, 0.5 reds; at home, last 5: 2.2 yellows per game.
- Strasbourg average 2.0 yellow cards per game; away, last 5: 2.4 yellows per game.
- Combined average cards in Brest home games: 4.1 (Brest 2.2 + opponent 1.9).
- Last 5 H2H: total cards were 5, 3, 4, 2, 4 – three of five over 3.5.
BetBugs · Cards Over/UnderlostOver 3.5Estimated chance62%

Head-to-Head

2W · 2D · 1W

W1-2StrasbourgvStade Brestois 29Nov 30, 2025L1

D0-0StrasbourgvStade Brestois 29Feb 23, 2025L1

L3-1Stade Brestois 29vStrasbourgNov 30, 2024L1

W0-3StrasbourgvStade Brestois 29Feb 24, 2024L1

D1-1Stade Brestois 29vStrasbourgDec 7, 2023L1

Brest: 2 clean sheets2.4 goals/game avg

League Table

Ligue 1 2025/2026

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF-GA	Pts	Form
12	Brest	32	10	8	14	41-52	38	LLDDL
8	Racing Strasbourg	32	13	8	11	51-42	47	DLWLW

9pt gap between teams

Recent Form

Brest

L0-1Paris Saint GermainMay 10L1

L0-4Paris FCMay 3L1

D3-3LensApr 24L1

D1-1NantesApr 19L1

L3-4RennesApr 4L1

L0-3AuxerreMar 21L1

L0-2MonacoMar 14L1

W2-0Le HavreMar 8L1

W1-0MetzMar 1L1

W2-0MarseilleFeb 20L1

D1-1LilleFeb 14L1

W2-0LorientFeb 7L1

D2-2NiceFeb 1L1

L0-2ToulouseJan 25L1

L1-2LyonJan 18L1

Racing Strasbourg

D1-1AngersMay 10L1

L0-1Rayo VallecanoMay 7UEF

L1-2ToulouseMay 3L1

L0-1Rayo VallecanoApr 30UEF

W3-2LorientApr 26L1

L0-2NiceApr 22CDF

L0-3RennesApr 19L1

W4-0FSV Mainz 05Apr 16UEF

L0-2FSV Mainz 05Apr 9UEF

W3-1NiceApr 4L1

W3-2NantesMar 22L1

D1-1HNK RijekaMar 19UEF

D0-0Paris FCMar 15L1

W2-1HNK RijekaMar 12UEF

D0-0AuxerreMar 7L1

Squad & Injuries

Brest

6 out

Attackers8

Midfielders6

Defenders6/8

×#2

×#5

×#44

×#2

×#5

×#44

Goalkeeper3

#2 B. Locko — Muscle Injury

#5 B. Chardonnet — Ribs Injury

#44 S. Coulibaly — Leg Injury

#2 B. Locko — Muscle Injury

#5 B. Chardonnet — Ribs Injury

#44 S. Coulibaly — Leg Injury

Racing Strasbourg

12 out

Attackers4/8

×#10

×#9

×#10

×#9

Midfielders6/13

×#32

×#29

×#11

×#32

×#29

×#11

Defenders2/8

×#5

Goalkeeper4

#5 A. Anselmino — Knee Injury

#10 E. Emegha — Muscle Injury

#9 J. Panichelli — Knee Injury

#32 V. Barco — Ankle Injury

#29 S. El Mourabet — Injury

#11 S. Nanasi — Illness

#5 A. Anselmino — Knee Injury

#10 E. Emegha — Muscle Injury

#9 J. Panichelli — Knee Injury

#32 V. Barco — Ankle Injury

#29 S. El Mourabet — Injury

#11 S. Nanasi — Illness

Quick Take

Context

BetBugs edges

Brest or Draw

Under 9.5

Over 3.5

Draw

Over 0.5

Yes

Over 2.5

Result0 of 3 landed

Goals4 of 4 landed

Match stats1 of 2 landed

Head-to-Head

League Table

Recent Form

Brest

Racing Strasbourg

Squad & Injuries

Brest

Racing Strasbourg