Zwolle0Feyenoord7

HT 0–3Sun 13 Sept 2026, 14:45 Predictions graded

Predictions9–190%

Edges5–183%

PossPossession 38%–62%ShotsShots 6–26On targetOn target 3–11CornersCorners 5–6

Quick Take

Pre-match view

Context last updated 9 Sep 2026, 01:28 · Europe/Bucharest

Feyenoord are clear favourites to win at Zwolle, but the odds are efficient and the goal markets (Over 2.5, BTTS Yes) are significantly overpriced relative to our model.

The best value is a small edge on the away win at 1.43, but the Champions League trip to Barcelona four days earlier adds rotation and fatigue risk. Avoid Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes, which show negative edges of -11.9 and -7.6 points respectively.

Context

Feyenoord sit third with 11 points from five matches, scoring 13 goals and conceding seven.
Their recent away form is strong: they won 3-1 at NEC Nijmegen on 5 September and 5-2 at Cambuur on 23 August. Zwolle have conceded 2.5 goals per game on average, so Feyenoord's attack is likely to create chances. However, Feyenoord drew their last home game 2-2 with ADO Den Haag, showing they can be held.
- Feyenoord are unbeaten in five league matches (WDWDW).
- They average 2.5 goals scored per game.
- Zwolle average 2.5 goals conceded per game.
Zwolle are 14th with four points from five games.
At home they lost 2-0 to Ajax on 9 August and 3-1 to NEC Nijmegen on 29 August. Feyenoord have won all three away games, so Zwolle's home struggles may continue. But Zwolle did win 2-0 at Heerenveen on 22 August, showing they can compete on the road.
- Zwolle home record: 0 wins, 0 draws, 2 losses.
- They scored 1 goal and conceded 5 in those home games.
- Feyenoord away record: 3 wins, 0 draws, 0 losses.
Feyenoord attacker A. Hadj-Moussa started four of the five recent fixtures with available lineups.
His disciplinary omission on 5 September and doubtful listing for Barcelona leave his return for Zwolle unresolved. If he remains out, Feyenoord lose a recently used wide option, but no confirmed change to the lineup is established.
- Feyenoord's 5 September match report says Van Bronckhorst left A. Hadj-Moussa out of the squad for disciplinary reasons.
- UEFA's 8 September Barcelona preview listed Hadj Moussa as doubtful for Feyenoord.
- A. Hadj-Moussa started 4 of the 5 recent team fixtures with available lineups.
To watchSources checked 9 Sep 2026, 01:26 · Europe/BucharestFeyenoord match report: NEC away winwww.feyenoord.com · 5 Sep 2026UEFA Champions League preview: Barcelona v Feyenoordfr.uefa.com · 8 Sep 2026
The teams last met on 17 May 2026, with Feyenoord winning 2-0 at Zwolle.
Feyenoord also won 6-1 at home in December 2025 and 4-0 at home in April 2025. Zwolle's only win in this span was a 5-1 home victory in August 2024. The pattern favors Feyenoord, but Zwolle's one win shows they can surprise.
- 17 May 2026: Zwolle 0-2 Feyenoord
- 6 Dec 2025: Feyenoord 6-1 Zwolle
- 25 Apr 2025: Feyenoord 4-0 Zwolle

BetBugs edges

Compare BetBugs' chances with the market's.

Positive edges · 1

Other edges · 5

The published chance does not exceed the market's implied chance.

Double ChancewonUncertainty band: Strong lean

Draw or Feyenoord

1.14fair 1.14

BetBugs 88% · Market 88%

0.0ppshort

Feyenoord's unbeaten away record and Zwolle's poor home form make a Feyenoord win or draw highly likely, and the odds are fair.

HT/FTwonUncertainty band: Near coin-flip

Feyenoord at half-time / Feyenoord at full-time

2.00fair 2.22

BetBugs 45% · Market 50%

0.0ppshort

The odds imply a 50% chance, but our estimate is 45%, so this is not a value bet despite Feyenoord's overall superiority.

Goals Over/UnderwonUncertainty band: Strong lean

Over 2.5

1.30fair 1.54

BetBugs 65% · Market 76.9%

0.0ppshort

Both teams' recent matches have trended towards high-scoring affairs, and Feyenoord's attack is potent.

2 Nd Half Goals Over/UnderwonUncertainty band: Slight lean

Over 1.5

1.80fair 1.82

BetBugs 55% · Market 55.6%

0.0ppshort

Both teams tend to score more in the second half, and Feyenoord's attacking depth should create chances late.

BetBugs probabilities

How likely BetBugs thought each outcome was.

Result4 of 4 landed

Signal quality High · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Feyenoord's superior form, away record, and dominant H2H psychology make them clear favourites.
- Feyenoord are unbeaten in their last 5 Eredivisie matches (W3 D2) and have won all 3 away games this season.
- Zwolle have lost 3 of their last 5 league matches and have lost both home games this season, scoring only 1 goal at home.
- Feyenoord have won the last 5 H2H meetings, scoring 17 goals and conceding 2.
BetBugs · Match WinnerwonFeyenoordEstimated chance72%
Signal quality High · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Feyenoord's strong away form and Zwolle's poor home record make a Feyenoord win or draw highly likely.
- Feyenoord have not lost in their last 5 league matches (W3 D2).
- Zwolle have lost 3 of their last 5 league matches and have not won at home this season.
- Feyenoord have won all 3 away matches this season.
BetBugs · Double ChancewonDraw or FeyenoordEstimated chance88%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Feyenoord's stronger first-half scoring record gives them an edge to lead at the break.
- Feyenoord have led at half-time in 40% of their last 15 matches.
- Zwolle have trailed at half-time in 33% of their last 15 matches.
- Feyenoord average 1.1 first-half goals per match, while Zwolle average 0.5.
BetBugs · First Half WinnerwonFeyenoordEstimated chance50%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Feyenoord's ability to start strong and maintain leads makes a half-time/full-time double plausible.
- Feyenoord have led at half-time in 40% of their last 15 matches.
- Feyenoord have won 3 of their last 5 league matches.
- Zwolle have lost 3 of their last 5 league matches.
BetBugs · Ht Ft DoublewonFeyenoord/FeyenoordEstimated chance45%

Goals3 of 4 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Both teams' recent matches have trended towards high-scoring affairs, and Feyenoord's attack is potent.
- Feyenoord's last 5 league matches have averaged 3.4 total goals.
- Zwolle's last 5 league matches have averaged 3.2 total goals.
- Feyenoord have scored 13 goals in 5 league matches this season.
BetBugs · Goals Over/UnderwonOver 2.5Estimated chance65%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Zwolle's ability to score at home and Feyenoord's occasional defensive lapses suggest both teams can find the net.
- Zwolle have scored in 4 of their last 5 league matches.
- Feyenoord have conceded in 4 of their last 5 league matches.
- Feyenoord have kept only 1 clean sheet in their last 5 league matches.
BetBugs · Both Teams to ScorelostYesEstimated chance60%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Feyenoord's first-half scoring rate and Zwolle's tendency to concede early could produce a high-scoring first half.
- Feyenoord average 1.1 first-half goals per match in their last 15 matches.
- Zwolle average 0.5 first-half goals per match in their last 15 matches.
- Feyenoord have led at half-time in 40% of their last 15 matches.
BetBugs · 1st Half GoalswonOver 1.5 goals in 1st halfEstimated chance45%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Both teams tend to score more in the second half, and Feyenoord's attacking depth should create chances late.
- Feyenoord's last 5 league matches have averaged 1.8 second-half goals.
- Zwolle's last 5 league matches have averaged 1.6 second-half goals.
- Feyenoord have scored in the second half in 4 of their last 5 league matches.
BetBugs · Goals Over Under Second HalfwonOver 1.5Estimated chance55%

Match stats2 of 2 landed

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Feyenoord's attacking style and Zwolle's defensive posture could lead to a high corner count.
- Feyenoord average 6.2 corners per match in their last 15 matches.
- Zwolle average 4.1 corners per match in their last 15 matches.
- Feyenoord's last 5 league matches have averaged 10.2 total corners.
BetBugs · Corners Over/UnderwonOver 9.5Estimated chance50%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Feyenoord's high shot volume and Zwolle's defensive struggles should produce a high number of shots on target.
- Feyenoord average 6.6 shots on target per match in their last 15 matches.
- Zwolle average 3.5 shots on target per match in their last 15 matches.
- Feyenoord's last 5 league matches have averaged 9.4 total shots on target.
BetBugs · Shots on Target Over/UnderwonOver 8.5Estimated chance50%