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Predictions graded

Sevilla0Real Madrid1

HT 0–1Sun 17 May 2026, 17:00 Predictions graded

Predictions4–544%

Edges3–443%

PossPossession 41%–59%ShotsShots 14–12On targetOn target 6–1CornersCorners 4–4

Quick Take

Pre-match view

Context last updated 13 May 2026, 21:55 · Europe/Bucharest

Real Madrid's H2H dominance (unbeaten in 13) and superior away form make 'Draw or Real Madrid' at 1.35 the safest play, with a +6pt edge.

The Cards Over 4.5 at 1.70 also offers value (+6.2pt edge) given both teams' disciplinary records. Motivation is the wildcard after Madrid's title loss and Mourinho links, so avoid low-confidence markets like 1st Half Result.

Context

Barcelona's win on May 11 mathematically ended Madrid's title hopes.
- Madrid have nothing to play for in the league, which may reduce intensity.
- End-of-season dead rubbers often produce unexpected results.
The Guardian reported Mourinho talks on May 11, 2026.
- Xabi Alonso left in January, with Arbeloa promoted as interim.
- Active managerial speculation can unsettle player focus.
Sevilla are winless in the last 13 H2H meetings.
- Madrid won the last two encounters 2-0 and 4-2.
- Sevilla's last win over Madrid was in 2018.
Sevilla home record: W7 D4 L7, 24 goals scored, 24 conceded.
- They have lost 4 of their last 6 home matches.
- No home advantage edge against a top side like Madrid.

BetBugs edges

Compare BetBugs' chances with the market's.

Positive edges · 4

BetBugs probabilities

How likely BetBugs thought each outcome was.

Result3 of 3 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Real Madrid's dominant H2H record and superior away form give them a clear edge, though their title loss may reduce motivation slightly.
- Real Madrid have won 4 of the last 5 H2H meetings, including a 2-0 win at Sevilla in May 2025.
- Sevilla have not beaten Real Madrid since 2018, losing the last two meetings by a combined 6-2.
- Real Madrid's away record this season: 10 wins, 4 draws, 4 losses, with 31 goals scored and 19 conceded in 18 matches.
- Sevilla's home record: 7 wins, 4 draws, 7 losses, with 24 goals scored and 24 conceded in 18 matches.
BetBugs · Match WinnerwonReal MadridEstimated chance55%
Signal quality High · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Sevilla's poor H2H record and mediocre home form make a home win unlikely, while Real Madrid's strong away performances support a double chance in their favor.
- Real Madrid are unbeaten in the last 13 H2H meetings against Sevilla.
- Sevilla have only won 7 of 18 home matches this season, with a negative goal difference at home.
- Real Madrid have lost only 4 of 18 away matches, with a +12 goal difference on the road.
BetBugs · Double ChancewonDraw or Real MadridEstimated chance80%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Real Madrid's slightly better first-half performance and Sevilla's tendency to fall behind early give Madrid a marginal edge, but the low confidence reflects the variability.
- Real Madrid have led at halftime in 33% of their last 15 matches, compared to Sevilla's 20%.
- Sevilla have trailed at halftime in 40% of their recent matches.
- In the last 5 H2H meetings, Real Madrid led at halftime in 2 matches, with 2 draws and 1 Sevilla lead.
BetBugs · First Half WinnerwonReal MadridEstimated chance40%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Real Madrid's superior second-half record and H2H dominance suggest they are more likely to edge the second period, though the low confidence accounts for potential complacency.
- Real Madrid have won the second half in 7 of their last 15 matches, compared to Sevilla's 4.
- Sevilla have lost the second half in 6 of their last 15 matches.
- In the last 5 H2H meetings, Real Madrid won the second half in 3 matches, with 1 draw and 1 Sevilla win.
BetBugs · Second Half Winnernot gradableReal MadridEstimated chance45%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
A draw at halftime followed by a Real Madrid win is a plausible scenario given the H2H pattern and Madrid's ability to finish strong, but it remains a specific outcome with low probability.
- In the last 5 H2H meetings, the halftime result was a draw in 2 matches, with Real Madrid winning both of those games.
- Sevilla have drawn at halftime in 40% of their last 15 matches, while Real Madrid have drawn at halftime in 33%.
- Real Madrid have come from behind or drawn at halftime to win in 3 of their last 15 matches.
BetBugs · Ht Ft Doublenot gradableDraw/Real MadridEstimated chance30%

Goals1 of 4 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Both teams' recent form shows a tendency for higher-scoring games, and the H2H history supports a match with at least three goals.
- Sevilla's last 15 matches average 2.7 total goals (1.1 scored, 1.6 conceded).
- Real Madrid's last 15 matches average 3.1 total goals (1.8 scored, 1.3 conceded).
- 3 of the last 5 H2H meetings have seen over 2.5 goals, with an average of 3.0 goals per game.
- Sevilla have conceded at least 2 goals in 4 of their last 6 home matches.
BetBugs · Goals Over/UnderlostOver 2.5Estimated chance60%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Sevilla's consistent scoring at home and Real Madrid's occasional defensive lapses suggest both teams are likely to find the net.
- Sevilla have scored in 12 of their last 15 matches, failing to score only against Levante, Oviedo, and Valencia.
- Real Madrid have conceded in 10 of their last 15 matches, keeping clean sheets only against Espanyol, Elche, and Manchester City.
- Both teams scored in 2 of the last 5 H2H meetings, but Sevilla managed to score in 2 of those 5.
BetBugs · Both Teams to ScorelostYesEstimated chance55%
Signal quality High · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Both teams have a high frequency of first-half goals in their recent matches, and the H2H trend strongly supports at least one goal before the break.
- Sevilla's first-half goals average: 0.5 scored, 0.9 conceded per match over the last 15 games.
- Real Madrid's first-half goals average: 0.9 scored, 0.7 conceded per match over the last 15 games.
- In the last 5 H2H meetings, there has been a first-half goal in 4 matches.
- Sevilla have trailed at halftime in 40% of their recent matches, while Real Madrid have led at halftime in 33%.
BetBugs · 1st Half GoalswonOver 0.5 goals in 1st halfEstimated chance75%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
The second half tends to be more open in matches involving these teams, with Real Madrid's attacking strength often leading to late goals.
- Sevilla's second-half goals average: 0.6 scored, 0.7 conceded per match over the last 15 games.
- Real Madrid's second-half goals average: 0.9 scored, 0.6 conceded per match over the last 15 games.
- In the last 5 H2H meetings, the second half has produced an average of 1.8 goals.
- Real Madrid have scored in the second half in 12 of their last 15 matches.
BetBugs · Goals Over Under Second HalflostOver 1.5Estimated chance60%

Match stats0 of 2 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Both teams generate a high number of corners, and the H2H history suggests a total above 9.5 is likely, especially with Real Madrid's attacking width.
- Sevilla average 4.4 corners per match, while Real Madrid average 5.9 corners per match over the last 15 games.
- Combined, the teams average 10.3 corners per match in their recent games.
- In the last 5 H2H meetings, the total corners have been 10, 7, 9, 11, and 8, averaging 9.0 per game.
- Real Madrid have earned at least 6 corners in 4 of their last 5 away matches.
BetBugs · Corners Over/UnderlostOver 9.5Estimated chance60%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
The disciplinary records of both teams and the competitive nature of H2H clashes point to a match with over 4.5 cards.
- Sevilla average 2.6 yellow cards per match, while Real Madrid average 2.3 yellow cards per match over the last 15 games.
- Combined, the teams average 4.9 cards per match in their recent games.
- In the last 5 H2H meetings, the total cards have been 5, 4, 6, 3, and 5, averaging 4.6 per game.
- Sevilla have received at least 2 cards in 13 of their last 15 matches.
BetBugs · Cards Over/UnderlostOver 4.5Estimated chance65%

Head-to-Head

0W · 1D · 4W

L2-0Real MadridvSevillaDec 20, 2025LL

L0-2SevillavReal MadridMay 18, 2025LL

L4-2Real MadridvSevillaDec 22, 2024LL

L1-0Real MadridvSevillaFeb 25, 2024LL

D1-1SevillavReal MadridOct 21, 2023LL

Real Madrid unbeaten in 5 meetingsReal Madrid: 3 clean sheets2.6 goals/game avg

League Table

La Liga 2025/2026

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF-GA	Pts	Form
13	Sevilla	35	11	7	17	43-56	40	WWLLW
2	Real Madrid Promotion - Champions League (League phase)	35	24	5	6	70-33	77	LWDWD

37pt gap between teams

Recent Form

Sevilla

W2-1EspanyolMay 9LL

W1-0Real SociedadMay 4LL

L1-2OsasunaApr 26LL

L0-2LevanteApr 23LL

W2-1Atletico MadridApr 11LL

L0-1OviedoApr 5LL

L0-2ValenciaMar 21LL

L2-5BarcelonaMar 15LL

D1-1Rayo VallecanoMar 8LL

D2-2Real BetisMar 1LL

W1-0GetafeFeb 22LL

D1-1AlavesFeb 14LL

D1-1GironaFeb 8LL

L1-4MallorcaFeb 2LL

W2-1Athletic ClubJan 24LL

Real Madrid

L0-2BarcelonaMay 10LL

W2-0EspanyolMay 3LL

D1-1Real BetisApr 24LL

W2-1AlavesApr 21LL

L3-4Bayern MünchenApr 15UEF

D1-1GironaApr 10LL

L1-2Bayern MünchenApr 7UEF

L1-2MallorcaApr 4LL

W3-2Atletico MadridMar 22LL

W2-1Manchester CityMar 17UEF

W4-1ElcheMar 14LL

W3-0Manchester CityMar 11UEF

W2-1Celta VigoMar 6LL

L0-1GetafeMar 2LL

W2-1BenficaFeb 25UEF

Squad & Injuries

Sevilla

33 available

Attackers7

Midfielders10

Defenders11

Goalkeeper5

Real Madrid

40 available

Attackers6

Midfielders13

Defenders16

Goalkeeper5

Quick Take

Context

BetBugs edges

Draw or Real Madrid

Real Madrid

Over 2.5

Over 4.5

Over 0.5

Yes

Over 9.5

Result3 of 3 landed

Goals1 of 4 landed

Match stats0 of 2 landed

Head-to-Head

League Table

Recent Form

Sevilla

Real Madrid

Squad & Injuries

Sevilla

Real Madrid