KFUM Oslo2Aalesund1

HT 2–1Sun 13 Sept 2026, 15:00 Predictions graded

Predictions7–654%

Edges5–0100%

PossPossession 39%–61%ShotsShots 9–19On targetOn target 5–3CornersCorners 6–4

Quick Take

Pre-match view

Context last updated 10 Sep 2026, 17:43 · Europe/Bucharest

Expect an open, goal-friendly match between two relegation-threatened sides, but the market has already priced in the scoring trends.

The only fair-value bet is double chance KFUM Oslo or draw at 1.48, with no significant edge. Avoid over 3.5 goals and first-half over 1.5 due to negative value.

Context

KFUM Oslo are 14th in the Eliteserien with 19 points, while Aalesund are 15th with 18 points. The relegation line sits at 14th place.
A win for either team would move them clear of the bottom three, while a loss could leave them deeper in trouble. Both sides have struggled defensively, conceding 33 and 43 goals respectively, so the stakes are high for a match that may be decided by small margins.
- KFUM Oslo are 14th with 19 points from 19 matches.
- Aalesund are 15th with 18 points from 19 matches.
- The relegation line is 14th place, with Start in 16th on 13 points.
Aalesund have played eight away matches in the Eliteserien this season.
Their away record is one win, three draws, and four losses, with eight goals scored and 17 conceded. KFUM Oslo have four wins at home, so Aalesund's struggles on the road could be a key factor in this relegation clash.
- Aalesund's away record: 1 win, 3 draws, 4 losses in 8 matches.
- Aalesund have scored 8 goals and conceded 17 away from home.
- KFUM Oslo's home record: 4 wins, 2 draws, 4 losses in 10 matches.
KFUM midfielder J. Flaten was sent off after two yellow cards in the loss at Molde on 6 September.
His availability for this match is unresolved because no squad has been registered. A confirmed absence would remove a central-midfield option and force an adjustment to KFUM's midfield structure, but until the team sheet is published this remains an uncertainty.
- NFF lists Jacob Blixt Flaten in KFUM's starting XI at Molde, with a yellow card in the 47th minute and dismissal in the 60th.
- KFUM's match report states that the dismissal followed two yellow cards.
- NFF currently shows no published or registered squad for KFUM-Aalesund.
To watchSources checked 10 Sep 2026, 17:41 · Europe/BucharestNFF: Molde 2-0 KFUM match recordwww.fotball.no · 6 Sep 2026KFUM: Kom til kort i Moldewww.kaaffa.no · 6 Sep 2026NFF: KFUM-Aalesund fixture recordwww.fotball.no · 13 Sep 2026
KFUM Oslo's recent Eliteserien form includes two consecutive losses.
They lost 2-0 away to Molde on September 6 and 4-1 away to Start on August 30. Those results followed a 4-0 cup win and a 1-1 home draw with Lillestrom, so their league form has dipped at a critical time.
- Lost 2-0 away to Molde on 2026-09-06.
- Lost 4-1 away to Start on 2026-08-30.
- Drew 1-1 at home to Lillestrom on 2026-08-15.

BetBugs edges

Compare BetBugs' chances with the market's.

Positive edges · 1

Other edges · 4

The published chance does not exceed the market's implied chance.

Goals Over/UnderwonUncertainty band: Lean

Over 2.5

1.50fair 1.61

BetBugs 62% · Market 66.7%

0.0ppshort

Aalesund's high-scoring recent form and KFUM's defensive vulnerability make over 2.5 goals likely, driven by the tactical matchup edge.

Both Teams To ScorewonUncertainty band: Lean

Yes

1.50fair 1.72

BetBugs 58% · Market 66.7%

0.0ppshort

Both teams show consistent scoring and conceding patterns, making BTTS a strong possibility based on recent form.

Team to ScorewonUncertainty band: Strong lean

Aalesund to score

1.22fair 1.43

BetBugs 70% · Market 82%

0.0ppshort

KFUM's defensive record and Aalesund's scoring consistency make a home clean sheet unlikely.

Team to ScorewonUncertainty band: Strong lean

KFUM Oslo to score

1.22fair 1.54

BetBugs 65% · Market 82%

0.0ppshort

Aalesund's poor defensive record and KFUM's ability to score make an away clean sheet unlikely.

BetBugs probabilities

How likely BetBugs thought each outcome was.

Result1 of 4 landed

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Aalesund's high draw rate and the evenly matched relegation battle suggest a draw is a plausible outcome.
- KFUM Oslo have drawn 4 of their last 15 matches (27%).
- Aalesund have drawn 9 of their last 19 league matches (47%).
- The most recent H2H meeting ended 2-2 in April 2026.
- Both teams are in the relegation zone with similar points (19 vs 18).
BetBugs · Match WinnerlostDrawEstimated chance32%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
KFUM's home advantage and Aalesund's poor away form make KFUM or draw a solid double chance selection.
- KFUM Oslo have won or drawn 9 of their last 15 matches (60%).
- Aalesund have lost 7 of their last 15 matches (47%).
- KFUM Oslo's home record is 4 wins, 2 draws, 4 losses in 10 matches.
- Aalesund's away record is 1 win, 3 draws, 4 losses in 8 matches.
BetBugs · Double ChancewonKFUM Oslo or DrawEstimated chance68%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Aalesund's superior first-half scoring record gives them an edge to lead at the break.
- Aalesund led at half-time in 47% of their last 15 matches.
- KFUM Oslo trailed at half-time in 47% of their last 15 matches.
- Aalesund average 1.3 first-half goals scored per match.
- KFUM Oslo average 0.8 first-half goals scored per match.
BetBugs · First Half WinnerlostAalesundEstimated chance35%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
A draw at both half-time and full-time is a low-probability but plausible outcome given the teams' draw tendencies.
- KFUM Oslo drew 4 of their last 15 matches.
- Aalesund drew 9 of their last 19 league matches.
- The most recent H2H meeting ended 2-2.
- Both teams have similar points and goal differences.
BetBugs · Ht Ft DoublelostDraw/DrawEstimated chance15%

Goals5 of 6 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Aalesund's high-scoring recent form and KFUM's defensive vulnerability make over 2.5 goals likely, driven by the tactical matchup edge.
- KFUM Oslo average 1.1 goals scored and 1.8 conceded per match over last 15, with 2.9 total goals per game.
- Aalesund average 2.6 goals scored and 2.0 conceded per match over last 15, with 4.6 total goals per game.
- Aalesund's last 5 Eliteserien matches produced 2, 3, 10, 2, and 8 goals respectively, averaging 5.0 goals per game.
- KFUM's last 5 Eliteserien matches produced 2, 5, 2, 2, and 1 goals respectively, averaging 2.4 goals per game.
BetBugs · Goals Over/UnderwonOver 2.5Estimated chance62%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Both teams show consistent scoring and conceding patterns, making BTTS a strong possibility based on recent form.
- KFUM Oslo have scored in 10 of their last 15 matches (67%).
- Aalesund have scored in 13 of their last 15 matches (87%).
- KFUM Oslo have conceded in 12 of their last 15 matches (80%).
- Aalesund have conceded in 12 of their last 15 matches (80%).
BetBugs · Both Teams to ScorewonYesEstimated chance58%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Aalesund's strong first-half scoring and KFUM's tendency to trail early suggest first-half goals are likely.
- KFUM Oslo average 0.8 first-half goals scored and 0.9 conceded per match.
- Aalesund average 1.3 first-half goals scored and 0.8 conceded per match.
- Aalesund led at half-time in 47% of their last 15 matches.
- KFUM trailed at half-time in 47% of their last 15 matches.
BetBugs · 1st Half GoalswonOver 1.5 goals in 1st halfEstimated chance45%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Both teams tend to concede late, and Aalesund's high-scoring games often feature second-half goals.
- KFUM Oslo average 1.1 goals scored and 1.8 conceded per match overall.
- Aalesund average 2.6 goals scored and 2.0 conceded per match overall.
- Aalesund's last 5 matches averaged 5.0 total goals per game.
- KFUM's last 5 matches averaged 2.4 total goals per game.
BetBugs · Goals Over Under Second HalflostOver 1.5Estimated chance50%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
KFUM's defensive record and Aalesund's scoring consistency make a home clean sheet unlikely.
- KFUM Oslo have kept only 3 clean sheets in their last 15 matches (20%).
- Aalesund have scored in 13 of their last 15 matches (87%).
- KFUM Oslo concede an average of 1.8 goals per match.
- Aalesund average 2.6 goals scored per match.
BetBugs · Team to ScorewonAalesund to scoreEstimated chance70%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Aalesund's poor defensive record and KFUM's ability to score make an away clean sheet unlikely.
- Aalesund have kept only 2 clean sheets in their last 15 matches (13%).
- KFUM Oslo have scored in 10 of their last 15 matches (67%).
- Aalesund concede an average of 2.0 goals per match.
- KFUM Oslo average 1.1 goals scored per match.
BetBugs · Team to ScorewonKFUM Oslo to scoreEstimated chance65%

Match stats1 of 3 landed

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Both teams generate and concede a high number of corners, making over 9.5 corners likely.
- KFUM Oslo average 4.2 corners per match and concede 5.7 opponent corners per match.
- Aalesund average 5.3 corners per match and concede 7.1 opponent corners per match.
- Combined average corners per match for both teams is approximately 11.2.
- Aalesund's last 5 matches averaged 6.6 corners for and 8.4 corners against.
BetBugs · Corners Over/UnderlostOver 9.5Estimated chance55%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Both teams produce and allow a high volume of shots on target, supporting over 8.5 total shots on target.
- KFUM Oslo average 3.4 shots on target per match and concede 5.1 opponent shots on target.
- Aalesund average 5.2 shots on target per match and concede 6.3 opponent shots on target.
- Combined average shots on target per match is approximately 10.0.
- Aalesund's last 5 matches averaged 6.8 shots on target for and 7.2 against.
BetBugs · Shots on Target Over/UnderlostOver 8.5Estimated chance52%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Both teams accumulate cards at a moderate rate, making over 4.5 total cards a reasonable expectation.
- KFUM Oslo average 2.3 yellow cards and 0.8 red cards per match.
- Aalesund average 2.1 yellow cards and 0.0 red cards per match.
- Combined average cards per match is approximately 5.2.
- KFUM's last 5 matches averaged 2.6 yellow cards and 0.4 red cards.
BetBugs · Cards Over/UnderwonOver 4.5Estimated chance48%

Prediction history

KFUM Oslo has been moderately reliable on Over 9.5 corners

KFUM Oslo has fulfilled 3 of 5 recent Over 9.5 corners predictions. The average estimated probability was 56%, with an expected 2.8 fulfilled, so performance is close to expectation. All three fulfilled predictions came at home, while both away matches missed.

Recent evidence for KFUM Oslo5 matches

Date / competitionMatch resultPredictedActualResult

26 Jul·Eliteserien