Nottingham Forest0Leeds United2

HT 0–0Tue 25 Aug 2026, 19:00 Predictions graded

Predictions11–0100%

Edges6–0100%

PossPossession 51%–49%ShotsShots 9–13On targetOn target 3–5CornersCorners 3–2

Quick Take

Pre-match view

Context last updated 25 Aug 2026, 20:21 · Europe/Bucharest

Leeds United offer value in the match winner market at 3.30 (45% model probability vs 30% implied) and the first-half draw at 2.20 (55% vs 45%), driven by Forest's rotation and Gibbs-White's absence.

Avoid the heavily priced Under 1.5 first-half goals line, which offers no value despite the low-scoring expectation.

Context

Leeds United won the most recent Premier League meeting between these teams.
On 22 August 2026, Leeds won 1-0 at Nottingham Forest. That result gives Leeds a recent reference for how to beat Forest, but cup matches often feature rotated line-ups, so the league game may not fully predict this one.
- Leeds won 1-0 at Nottingham Forest on 22 August 2026 in the Premier League.
M. Gibbs-White, a Nottingham Forest attacker, started 3 of the last 5 available lineups.
His confirmed absence removes an established attacking option for the immediate rematch. Forest must replace him from within the squad, and the linked analysis sees this as part of a slight Leeds advantage.
- Oliver Glasner confirmed that Gibbs-White will miss Tuesday's EFL Cup tie.
- Glasner said there is no structural knee damage, but the player remains in pain.
- M. Gibbs-White started 3 of the 5 recent team fixtures with available lineups.
ConfirmedSources checked 25 Aug 2026, 20:20 · Europe/BucharestBBC Sport via Yahoo: Glasner on squad rotation, injuries and Leeds cup tiemalaysia.news.yahoo.com · 24 Aug 2026
Nottingham Forest's most recent competitive match was a home defeat to Leeds.
Forest lost 0-1 to Leeds on 22 August 2026. Before that, they had mixed friendly results, including a 2-0 win over Stade Brestois and a 2-1 win over Bayer Leverkusen. The loss to Leeds is the most relevant recent form indicator for this cup tie.
- Lost 0-1 at home to Leeds on 22 August 2026 in the Premier League.
- Won 2-0 at home to Stade Brestois on 16 August 2026 in a friendly.
- Won 2-1 at home to Bayer Leverkusen on 12 August 2026 in a friendly.
Oliver Glasner, Nottingham Forest manager, has confirmed moderate rotation.
Changes for fresh legs may alter Forest's continuity from Saturday's league meeting. The exact lineup is not specified, so the tactical effect remains uncertain.
- Glasner said there would be moderate rotation because Forest need fresh legs against Leeds.
- He said Forest will play to win the tie.
ConfirmedSources checked 25 Aug 2026, 20:20 · Europe/BucharestBBC Sport via Yahoo: Glasner on squad rotation, injuries and Leeds cup tiemalaysia.news.yahoo.com · 24 Aug 2026

BetBugs edges

Compare BetBugs' chances with the market's.

Positive edges · 5

BetBugs probabilities

How likely BetBugs thought each outcome was.

Result5 of 5 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Leeds' recent away form and H2H edge, combined with Forest's rotation and missing Gibbs-White, give Leeds a slight advantage.
- Leeds won the most recent H2H 1-0 at Nottingham Forest on 2026-08-22.
- Leeds' away form: 3 wins, 1 draw, 1 loss in last 5 away matches.
- Nottingham Forest lost their last home match 0-1 to Leeds.
BetBugs · Match WinnerwonLeeds UnitedEstimated chance45%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Leeds' solid away form and Forest's moderate rotation make a Leeds win or draw the most likely double chance outcome.
- Leeds are unbeaten in 4 of last 5 away matches.
- Forest have drawn 2 of last 5 home matches.
- H2H last 5: 2 Leeds wins, 2 Forest wins, 1 draw.
BetBugs · Double ChancewonDraw or Leeds UnitedEstimated chance65%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Both teams have high draw rates at half-time, and the recent H2H was level at the break.
- Forest led at half-time in 47% of matches, trailed in 27%.
- Leeds led at half-time in 40%, trailed in 13%.
- Last H2H first half was 0-0.
BetBugs · First Half WinnerwonDrawEstimated chance55%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Leeds' stronger second-half scoring and Forest's defensive lapses after the break give Leeds a slight edge.
- Leeds scored in the second half in 4 of last 5 matches.
- Forest conceded in the second half in 3 of last 5 matches.
- Leeds' away second-half goal difference is positive.
BetBugs · Second Half WinnerwonLeeds UnitedEstimated chance40%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
A repeat of the recent H2H pattern (draw at half-time, Leeds win) is plausible given Leeds' second-half strength.
- Forest drew at half-time in 27% of matches.
- Leeds won 40% of matches overall.
- Last H2H: 0-0 at half-time, Leeds won 1-0.
BetBugs · Ht Ft DoublewonDraw/Leeds UnitedEstimated chance30%

Goals4 of 4 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Both teams have moderate scoring rates and the recent H2H was low-scoring, suggesting under 2.5 goals.
- Forest average 1.3 goals scored and 1.3 conceded per match.
- Leeds average 1.7 goals scored and 0.9 conceded per match.
- Last H2H ended 1-0.
BetBugs · Goals Over/UnderwonUnder 2.5Estimated chance55%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Leeds' solid defense and Forest's occasional scoring struggles make a clean sheet for at least one team likely.
- Leeds kept a clean sheet in last H2H (1-0).
- Forest failed to score in 2 of last 5 matches.
- Leeds conceded 0.9 goals per match on average.
BetBugs · Both Teams to ScorewonNoEstimated chance55%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Both teams tend to start cautiously, with low first-half scoring averages, supporting under 1.5 first-half goals.
- Forest average 0.7 first-half goals, Leeds 0.8.
- Forest concede 0.4 first-half goals, Leeds 0.3.
- Last H2H first half ended 0-0.
BetBugs · 1st Half GoalswonUnder 1.5 goals in 1st halfEstimated chance60%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Second halves tend to open up as teams push for a winner, with combined averages near the 1.5 line.
- Forest score 0.6 second-half goals on average (1.3 total - 0.7 first half).
- Leeds score 0.9 second-half goals on average (1.7 total - 0.8 first half).
- Combined second-half average is 1.5 goals.
BetBugs · Goals Over Under Second HalfwonOver 1.5Estimated chance50%

Match stats2 of 2 landed

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Both teams have low corner counts, and the recent H2H produced only 5 corners, supporting under 9.5.
- Forest average 3.5 corners per match, Leeds 4.0.
- Combined average corners: 7.5.
- Last H2H: Forest 3 corners, Leeds 2 corners (total 5).
BetBugs · Corners Over/UnderwonUnder 9.5Estimated chance55%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
The combined average is exactly at the line, and cup tie intensity may push cards over.
- Forest average 1.5 yellow cards, Leeds 2.0.
- Combined average yellow cards: 3.5.
- Cup matches often see increased intensity and cards.
BetBugs · Cards Over/UnderwonOver 3.5Estimated chance50%

Markets to Avoid

High-risk markets where price or context leaves too little cushion.

Implied 48% leaves no cushion vs our estimate of 35%; price already reflects the directional read.

Prediction history

Nottingham Forest has struggled to clear 3.5 cards in recent matches

In 10 recent projections for Over 3.5 cards, Nottingham Forest fulfilled only 3, well below the expected 6.2 based on average estimated probability of 62%. The current prediction of 50% sits below the historical range of 55-72%, indicating lower confidence than past projections. Home matches have been particularly poor, with just 1 fulfilment in 5 attempts.

Recent evidence for Nottingham Forest10 matches

Date / competitionMatch resultPredictedActualResult

24 May·Premier League