FC Vaduz3Lausanne-Sport1

HT 1–1Sat 5 Sept 2026, 16:00 Predictions graded

Predictions7–370%

Edges3–175%

PossPossession 59%–41%ShotsShots 22–7On targetOn target 11–3CornersCorners 7–3

Quick Take

Pre-match view

Context last updated 31 Aug 2026, 19:11 · Europe/Bucharest

The most likely outcomes are a Lausanne win or draw (62% combined) and Over 2.5 goals (62%), but the odds on all major markets are priced at or above our estimates, leaving no positive value.

Lausanne's injury doubts and weak away scoring add uncertainty, making this a match to watch rather than bet on.

Context

FC Vaduz are 11th in the Super League with 3 points from 5 matches, sitting in the relegation play-off zone.
They have lost four of their last five league games, including a 4-2 defeat at BSC Young Boys on 23 August and a 3-2 loss at FC Sion on 9 August. Their only win in that run came at home against Grasshoppers on 30 August, a 5-2 victory. This poor form puts pressure on them to get a result at home against Lausanne-Sport.
- FC Vaduz lost 4-2 at BSC Young Boys on 23 August 2026.
- FC Vaduz lost 3-2 at FC Sion on 9 August 2026.
- FC Vaduz won 5-2 at home against Grasshoppers on 30 August 2026.
Lausanne-Sport are 8th in the Super League with 5 points from 5 matches, sitting just above the relegation play-off zone.
They lost 3-2 at home to FC Zurich on 29 August and 1-0 at FC Luzern on 22 August. Before that, they had drawn 2-2 with BSC Young Boys and beaten FC Basel 1-0 away. Their recent form is mixed, but the two consecutive defeats have increased the pressure ahead of this away match.
- Lausanne-Sport lost 3-2 at home to FC Zurich on 29 August 2026.
- Lausanne-Sport lost 1-0 at FC Luzern on 22 August 2026.
- Lausanne-Sport drew 2-2 with BSC Young Boys on 8 August 2026.
The Super League table shows FC Vaduz in 11th with 3 points and Lausanne-Sport in 8th with 5 points after 5 matches.
FC Vaduz are three points behind the relegation play-off line, while Lausanne-Sport are one point above it. A win for either side would significantly improve their position, making this a direct battle to avoid the drop.
- FC Vaduz are 11th with 3 points, three points behind the relegation play-off line.
- Lausanne-Sport are 8th with 5 points, one point above the relegation play-off line.
- The gap between the two teams is 2 points.
FC Vaduz have played 2 home matches in the Super League this season, winning one and losing one.
They scored 5 goals against Grasshoppers and 2 against FC St. Gallen, showing they can be dangerous at home. However, they also conceded 5 goals in those games, so their defence remains a concern.
- FC Vaduz scored 5 goals at home against Grasshoppers on 30 August 2026.
- FC Vaduz scored 2 goals at home against FC St. Gallen on 2 August 2026.

BetBugs edges

Compare BetBugs' chances with the market's.

Other edges · 4

The published chance does not exceed the market's implied chance.

Goals Over/UnderwonUncertainty band: Lean

Over 2.5

1.45fair 1.61

BetBugs 62% · Market 69%

0.0ppshort

FC Vaduz home games average 6.0 total goals and both teams show elevated overall goal averages, but the odds imply a higher probability than our estimate.

Both Teams To ScorewonUncertainty band: Lean

Yes

1.40fair 1.72

BetBugs 58% · Market 71.4%

0.0ppshort

Both teams have shown consistent scoring and conceding patterns, but the odds heavily favor BTTS Yes beyond our estimate.

1 St Half Goals Over/UnderwonUncertainty band: Strong lean

Over 0.5

1.20fair 1.47

BetBugs 68% · Market 83.3%

0.0ppshort

Both teams average nearly a goal in the first half, but the odds imply a much higher probability than our estimate.

BetBugs probabilities

How likely BetBugs thought each outcome was.

Result1 of 4 landed

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Lausanne-Sport has a slightly better away record and FC Vaduz is in poor form, giving Lausanne a narrow edge.
- Lausanne-Sport away record: 1 win, 1 loss in 2 away matches.
- FC Vaduz home record: 1 win, 1 loss in 2 home matches.
- Lausanne-Sport overall form: 1 win, 2 draws, 2 losses in last 5.
- FC Vaduz overall form: 1 win, 4 losses in last 5.
BetBugs · Match WinnerlostLausanne-SportEstimated chance38%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
FC Vaduz's poor form and Lausanne's resilience make a Lausanne win or draw the more likely double chance outcome.
- FC Vaduz lost 4 of last 5 matches.
- Lausanne-Sport drew 2 of last 5 matches.
- H2H last 5: 2 draws, 2 Lausanne wins, 1 Vaduz win.
- FC Vaduz home record: 1 win, 1 loss in 2 home matches.
BetBugs · Double ChancelostDraw or Lausanne-SportEstimated chance62%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Lausanne's strong first-half record is offset by Vaduz's home resilience, making a first-half draw plausible.
- FC Vaduz leading at half time in 33% of matches, trailing in 27%.
- Lausanne-Sport leading at half time in 53% of matches, trailing in 20%.
- H2H last 5: 2 draws at half time (from available data).
- Both teams average 0.9 first half goals.
BetBugs · First Half WinnerwonDrawEstimated chance40%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
A draw at half time followed by a Lausanne win is a plausible but low-probability sequence given Lausanne's away form.
- Lausanne-Sport drew 2 of last 5 matches.
- Lausanne-Sport away record: 1 win, 1 loss in 2 away matches.
- FC Vaduz lost 4 of last 5 matches.
- H2H last 5: 2 draws.
BetBugs · Ht Ft DoublelostDraw / Lausanne-SportEstimated chance22%

Goals4 of 4 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
FC Vaduz's home games have been high-scoring and both teams show elevated overall goal averages, supporting Over 2.5.
- FC Vaduz home matches average 6.0 total goals (7 scored, 5 conceded in 2 home games).
- Lausanne-Sport away matches average 1.0 total goals (1 scored, 1 conceded in 2 away games).
- FC Vaduz overall average 3.6 total goals per match (2.0 scored, 1.6 conceded).
- Lausanne-Sport overall average 3.4 total goals per match (2.1 scored, 1.3 conceded).
BetBugs · Goals Over/UnderwonOver 2.5Estimated chance62%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Both teams have shown consistent scoring and conceding patterns in recent matches, making BTTS likely.
- FC Vaduz scored in 4 of last 5 matches and conceded in 4 of last 5.
- Lausanne-Sport scored in 4 of last 5 matches and conceded in 3 of last 5.
- FC Vaduz home record: 7 goals scored, 5 conceded in 2 home matches.
- Lausanne-Sport away record: 1 goal scored, 1 conceded in 2 away matches.
BetBugs · Both Teams to ScorewonYesEstimated chance58%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Both teams average nearly a goal in the first half, making Over 0.5 first half goals likely.
- FC Vaduz first half goals average 0.9 per match.
- Lausanne-Sport first half goals average 0.9 per match.
- FC Vaduz first half goals conceded average 0.9 per match.
- Lausanne-Sport first half goals conceded average 0.3 per match.
BetBugs · 1st Half GoalswonOver 0.5 goals in 1st halfEstimated chance68%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Total goal averages suggest second halves often produce over 1.5 goals, though confidence is limited by small sample.
- FC Vaduz overall average 3.6 total goals per match.
- Lausanne-Sport overall average 3.4 total goals per match.
- FC Vaduz first half goals average 0.9, implying second half average around 1.1.
- Lausanne-Sport first half goals average 0.9, implying second half average around 1.2.
BetBugs · Goals Over Under Second HalfwonOver 1.5Estimated chance55%

Match stats2 of 2 landed

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Combined corner averages suggest around 9-10 corners per match, making Over 8.5 a marginal lean.
- FC Vaduz average corners 4.7 per match.
- Lausanne-Sport average corners 4.5 per match.
- FC Vaduz opponent corners average 6.0 per match.
- Lausanne-Sport opponent corners average 5.0 per match.
BetBugs · Corners Over/UnderwonOver 8.5Estimated chance52%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Combined yellow card averages exceed 4.5, and Lausanne's high card count supports Over 4.5 cards.
- FC Vaduz average yellow cards 2.3 per match.
- Lausanne-Sport average yellow cards 3.7 per match.
- FC Vaduz average fouls 11.9 per match.
- Lausanne-Sport average fouls 14.3 per match.
BetBugs · Cards Over/UnderwonOver 4.5Estimated chance55%