Charlotte0Houston Dynamo0

HT 0–0Sat 5 Sept 2026, 23:30 Predictions graded

Predictions3–827%

Edges1–325%

PossPossession 34%–66%ShotsShots 9–18On targetOn target 3–5CornersCorners 8–6

Quick Take

Pre-match view

Context last updated 1 Sep 2026, 18:01 · Europe/Bucharest

Charlotte's strong home form and Saint-Maximin's creative threat give them a moderate edge, but the only clear betting value is on Charlotte or Draw at 1.40 (model edge +3.6 points).

Avoid Over 2.5 goals, BTTS Yes, and first-half Over 0.5, as all show negative value relative to our estimates.

Context

Houston Dynamo are second in the Western Conference with 39 points from 22 matches.
Their away record is 5 wins, 1 draw, and 5 losses, with 17 goals scored and 19 conceded. This suggests they can be vulnerable on the road, though they have won three of their last five away matches.
- Houston Dynamo away record: 5 wins, 1 draw, 5 losses in 11 matches.
- They scored 17 goals and conceded 19 away from home.
Charlotte attacker Allan Saint-Maximin started 2 of the last 5 available lineups and supplied two assists in the 2-0 win at Atlanta United on August 29.
His left-wing carries and passes into central runners created both goals, showing a direct route that does not require sustained possession. Houston's defensive shape will need to account for that wide-to-central pattern, though Saint-Maximin's limited recent starts leave some uncertainty about his role.
- Charlotte FC said Saint-Maximin supplied two assists in its 2-0 win at Atlanta United on August 29.
- The club described him beating his defender on the left wing before finding Pep Biel in the move that led to the opening goal.
- A. Saint-Maximin started 2 of the 5 recent team fixtures with available lineups.
ConfirmedSources checked 1 Sep 2026, 18:00 · Europe/BucharestCharlotte FC — Saint-Maximin named to MLS Team of the Matchdaywww.charlottefootballclub.com · 31 Aug 2026
Charlotte are fifth in the Eastern Conference with 35 points from 22 matches.
Their home record is 7 wins, 3 draws, and 2 losses, with 26 goals scored and 13 conceded. This strong home form could give them an edge against Houston.
- Charlotte home record: 7 wins, 3 draws, 2 losses in 12 matches.
- They scored 26 goals and conceded 13 at home.
Charlotte and Houston Dynamo have met three times since 2022.
Houston won 1-0 at home in June 2024, Charlotte won 2-1 at home in August 2023, and Charlotte won 2-1 away in July 2022. The pattern of home wins may continue, but the sample is small.
- 2024-06-30: Houston Dynamo 1-0 Charlotte (home win).
- 2023-08-08: Charlotte 2-1 Houston Dynamo (home win).
- 2022-07-04: Houston Dynamo 1-2 Charlotte (away win).

BetBugs edges

Compare BetBugs' chances with the market's.

Positive edges · 1

Other edges · 3

The published chance does not exceed the market's implied chance.

Goals Over/UnderlostUncertainty band: Slight lean

Over 2.5

1.62fair 1.82

BetBugs 55% · Market 61.7%

0.0ppshort

Charlotte's home matches average 3.25 total goals and Houston's away matches average 3.27, but the odds imply a higher probability than our estimate, so no value exists.

Both Teams To ScorelostUncertainty band: Lean

Yes

1.50fair 1.67

BetBugs 60% · Market 66.7%

0.0ppshort

Both teams have high scoring rates in their home/away splits, but the odds imply a higher probability than our estimate, so no value exists.

1 St Half Goals Over/UnderlostUncertainty band: Strong lean

Over 0.5

1.25fair 1.54

BetBugs 65% · Market 80%

0.0ppshort

The first-half goal line of 0.5 is low, but the odds imply a much higher probability than our estimate, so no value exists.

BetBugs probabilities

How likely BetBugs thought each outcome was.

Result1 of 4 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Charlotte's strong home form and Houston's inconsistent away record give the hosts a moderate edge, supported by the structural home advantage and recent home scoring output.
- Charlotte home record: 7W-3D-2L, 26 goals for, 13 against in 12 home matches
- Houston away record: 5W-1D-5L, 17 goals for, 19 against in 11 away matches
- Charlotte last 5 MLS: W-W-D-W-L; Houston last 5 MLS: D-L-W-W-W
BetBugs · Match WinnerlostCharlotteEstimated chance45%
Signal quality High · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Charlotte's strong home unbeaten rate and Houston's mediocre away form make the double chance a high-probability outcome.
- Charlotte home record: 7W-3D-2L (83% unbeaten at home)
- Houston away record: 5W-1D-5L (only 45% win rate away)
- Charlotte last 5 home MLS: W-W-D-W-L
BetBugs · Double ChancewonCharlotte or DrawEstimated chance75%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Charlotte's tendency to lead at halftime is offset by Houston's strong first-half resilience, resulting in a low-confidence lean to the home side.
- Charlotte leading at halftime in 53% of matches overall
- Houston trailing at halftime in only 7% of matches overall
- Charlotte first half goals at home: 0.9; Houston first half goals away: 0.8
BetBugs · First Half WinnerlostCharlotteEstimated chance40%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Charlotte's home advantage and first-half lead tendency make HT/FT home/home possible, but Houston's resilience lowers confidence.
- Charlotte leading at halftime in 53% of matches, but only 45% overall win rate
- Houston trailing at halftime in only 7% of matches, but 55% overall win rate
- Charlotte home win rate: 58%; Houston away win rate: 45%
BetBugs · Ht Ft DoublelostCharlotte/CharlotteEstimated chance25%

Goals0 of 4 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Both teams' home/away splits show high total goal averages, and Charlotte's attacking output at home supports over 2.5 goals.
- Charlotte home matches average 3.25 total goals (26 for, 13 against in 12 games)
- Houston away matches average 3.27 total goals (17 for, 19 against in 11 games)
- Charlotte overall average 2.8 goals per game; Houston overall average 2.1
BetBugs · Goals Over/UnderlostOver 2.5Estimated chance55%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Both teams have high scoring rates in their respective home/away splits, making both teams scoring likely.
- Charlotte scored in 10 of 12 home matches (83%)
- Houston scored in 8 of 11 away matches (73%)
- Charlotte conceded in 8 of 12 home matches; Houston conceded in 9 of 11 away matches
BetBugs · Both Teams to ScorelostYesEstimated chance60%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Both teams tend to score in the first half, and the first-half goal line of 0.5 is relatively low given their scoring patterns.
- Charlotte first half goals at home: 0.9 per game overall, with 53% leading at halftime
- Houston first half goals away: 0.8 per game overall, with 47% leading at halftime
- Charlotte scored in first half in 8 of last 15 matches; Houston in 7 of last 15
BetBugs · 1st Half GoalslostOver 0.5 goals in 1st halfEstimated chance65%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
The combined second-half scoring average is close to the 1.5 line, making this a near coin-flip with slight lean to over.
- Charlotte second half goals at home: 1.1 per game (26 total - 0.9 first half)
- Houston second half goals away: 0.7 per game (17 total - 0.8 first half)
- Combined second half average: 1.8 goals
BetBugs · Goals Over Under Second HalflostOver 1.5Estimated chance50%

Match stats2 of 3 landed

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
The combined average corners exactly matches the 8.5 line, making this a coin-flip with no clear edge.
- Charlotte average corners: 4.8 per game; Houston average corners: 3.7 per game
- Charlotte opponent corners average: 5.9; Houston opponent corners average: 5.5
- Combined average corners: 8.5
BetBugs · Corners Over/UnderwonOver 8.5Estimated chance50%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
The combined average shots on target is above the line, but variance is high, leading to a low-confidence over lean.
- Charlotte average shots on target: 5.1; Houston average shots on target: 4.5
- Charlotte opponent shots on target average: 4.3; Houston opponent shots on target average: 3.9
- Combined average shots on target: 9.6
BetBugs · Shots on Target Over/UnderlostOver 8.5Estimated chance50%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
The combined average yellow cards is slightly above the line, but card counts are volatile, resulting in a low-confidence over lean.
- Charlotte average yellow cards: 1.8; Houston average yellow cards: 2.0
- Charlotte opponent yellow cards average: 2.5; Houston opponent yellow cards average: 2.3
- Combined average yellow cards: 3.8
BetBugs · Cards Over/UnderwonOver 3.5Estimated chance50%