Premier LeagueFull time

Predictions graded

Crystal Palace2Newcastle1

HT 0–1Sun 12 Apr 2026, 13:00 Predictions graded

Predictions6–555%

Edges2–340%

PossPossession 42%–58%ShotsShots 11–7On targetOn target 5–3CornersCorners 2–4

Quick Take

Pre-match view

Context last updated 12 Apr 2026, 01:00 · Europe/Bucharest

Crystal Palace at home benefit from Newcastle's injury crisis (Bruno Guimaraes out), terrible away record (4W-4D-7L), and morale collapse following European exit, while Palace's recent 5-match unbeaten run and defensive solidity support backing them to avoid defeat; expect a low-scoring, cautious match with an edge toward Palace win or draw.

Context

7-2 Champions League loss to Barcelona
- 2-1 home derby loss to Sunderland
- CEO David Hopkinson said Howe's job is safe 'at the moment'
Glasner confirmed departure at end of season
- Andoni Iraola rejected Crystal Palace manager job (April 6)
- Club pursuing Sean Dyche as replacement
4W-4D-7L away record in PL this season
- 19 goals conceded in 15 away matches
- On 2-match overall losing streak
5-match unbeaten run (W2 D2 L0 in last 4 home games)
- 3-0 Conference League win over Fiorentina
- 2 clean sheets in last 3 home games

BetBugs edges

Compare BetBugs' chances with the market's.

BetBugs probabilities

How likely BetBugs thought each outcome was.

Result3 of 3 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Palace's home form in recent H2H at Selhurst (unbeaten in last 2), combined with Newcastle's terrible away record and significant injuries to key personnel (Bruno Guimaraes, Schar), tilts the balance toward a Palace home win despite their own poor overall home record this season.
- Crystal Palace on a 5-match unbeaten run in all competitions (W2 D2 L0 in last 4 league/Conference League home games)
- Newcastle away record is 4W 4D 7L in the PL this season, conceding 19 goals in 15 away matches
- Newcastle missing Bruno Guimaraes (midfield engine) plus Schar and Krafth from defence
- H2H at Selhurst Park in last 2 meetings: Palace won 2-0 (Apr 2024) and drew 1-1 (Nov 2024)
BetBugs · Match WinnerwonCrystal PalaceEstimated chance38%
Signal quality High · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Newcastle's poor away form (4W from 15), depleted squad missing Bruno Guimaraes and multiple defenders, plus active squad morale issues under Howe's uncertain future, makes an away win unlikely against a Palace side with recent momentum and home-ground familiarity.
- Newcastle have lost 7 of 15 PL away games this season (47% loss rate on the road)
- Crystal Palace unbeaten in 5 across all competitions, including 3-0 win over Fiorentina and draws with Leeds and AEK Larnaca at home
- Newcastle on a 2-match losing streak (7-2 Barcelona, 2-1 Sunderland) with active managerial pressure on Eddie Howe
- Palace unbeaten in last 2 H2H at Selhurst Park (W1 D1)
BetBugs · Double ChancewonCrystal Palace or DrawEstimated chance72%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Newcastle's very poor away win rate (27%) combined with their injury crisis and managerial uncertainty makes it likely that Palace avoid defeat at home, supported by their recent 5-match unbeaten run and reasonable H2H record at Selhurst Park.
- Newcastle's away record of 4W 4D 7L means they fail to win 73% of away games
- Crystal Palace unbeaten in 5 matches, including 2 unbeaten at Selhurst in H2H (W1 D1)
- Newcastle missing 3-4 key players including Bruno Guimaraes and 2-3 defenders
- Palace 9 points from relegation with a game in hand; motivation to secure safety remains
BetBugs · Asian HandicapwonCrystal Palace +0.0Estimated chance56%

Goals1 of 5 landed

Signal quality High · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Palace's extremely low home scoring rate (0.93/game) combined with missing their primary striker Mateta and backup Nketiah, plus Newcastle's modest away scoring (1.0/game), strongly points to a low-scoring affair where both sides struggle to find the net.
- Crystal Palace average 0.93 goals scored per home PL game this season (14 goals in 15 home matches) and 1.2 conceded per home game
- Newcastle average 1.0 goals scored per away PL game (15 in 15) and 1.27 conceded per away game
- Crystal Palace missing key attackers Mateta (rest) and Nketiah (thigh injury), plus Guessand questionable
- Palace's last 3 home matches: 3-0 (Conference League), 0-0, 0-0 — two of three were goalless
BetBugs · Goals Over/UnderlostUnder 2.5Estimated chance62%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Palace's strong recent defensive record (0.7 goals conceded per game over last 10) and Newcastle's inconsistent away scoring suggest at least one side is likely to fail to score, particularly given Palace's attacking absences that could lead to a tight, cagey match.
- Crystal Palace kept clean sheets in 2 of their last 3 home matches (0-0 vs Leeds, 3-0 vs Fiorentina)
- Palace average only 0.7 goals conceded per match across last 10 games
- Newcastle scored in only 1 of their last 2 away PL matches (1-0 at Chelsea, and conceded 3 at Man City away)
- Palace missing Mateta and Nketiah reduces their own ability to score
BetBugs · Both Teams to ScorelostNoEstimated chance52%
Signal quality High · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Crystal Palace's recent home pattern shows very quiet first halves (two consecutive 0-0 halftimes at home vs Leeds and AEK Larnaca), and with key attackers missing, the match is likely to start cautiously with under 1.5 first-half goals.
- Crystal Palace average 1.0 first-half goals scored and 0.4 first-half goals conceded per match (last 10 games)
- Newcastle average 1.5 first-half goals scored but 0.9 first-half conceded (last 10 games) — inflated by the 7-2 Barcelona match
- Palace's last 3 home games had first-half totals of 2, 0, and 0 goals (average 0.67 total first-half goals per home game)
- Palace leading at half time 50% of recent games but 2 of last 3 home halves were 0-0
BetBugs · 1st Half GoalslostUnder 1.5 goals in 1st halfEstimated chance68%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Palace have been defensively solid recently with 2 clean sheets in 3 home games, and Newcastle's absence of Bruno Guimaraes significantly weakens their away creative output, though Newcastle's season-long average of 1.0 away goals still makes a clean sheet far from certain.
- Crystal Palace kept 2 clean sheets in their last 3 home games (0-0 vs Leeds, 3-0 vs Fiorentina)
- Palace average 0.7 goals conceded per match over last 10 games across all competitions
- Newcastle scored only 1 goal in their last away PL win (1-0 at Chelsea)
- Newcastle missing Bruno Guimaraes who is their primary creative midfielder
BetBugs · Team to ScorelostNewcastle not to scoreEstimated chance35%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Newcastle's season-long away scoring rate of exactly 1.0 per game, further diminished by losing Bruno Guimaraes as their creative hub, against a Palace side conceding under 1 per game recently, strongly supports Newcastle scoring fewer than 2 goals.
- Newcastle average 1.0 goals per away PL game this season (15 goals in 15 away matches)
- Newcastle missing Bruno Guimaraes (muscle injury) — their primary creative and progressive midfielder
- Crystal Palace conceded 0.7 goals per match over last 10 games; kept 2 clean sheets in last 3 home games
- Newcastle scored 0 or 1 goals in 3 of their last 4 matches
BetBugs · Away Goals TotalwonNewcastle Under 1.5Estimated chance62%

Match stats2 of 3 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Newcastle's low corner counts in recent away matches (1-2 corners) combined with Palace's moderate home corner average and the expected low-tempo, low-scoring nature of this mid-table clash suggests total corners will likely stay under 10.5.
- Crystal Palace average 4.8 corners won per match; opponents average roughly 4.0 corners against them (last 10 games)
- Newcastle average 5.3 corners per match (last 10) but only 1-3 corners in their last 2 away games
- Palace's last 3 home games produced corner totals of 4, 11, and 9 (averaging 8.0 total corners per home match)
- Low-scoring, cautious matches tend to generate fewer corner opportunities
BetBugs · Corners Over/UnderwonUnder 10.5Estimated chance58%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Both teams average over 2 yellow cards per match with a combined foul rate near 25 per game, and both have shown elevated red card tendencies recently, making a total of 4+ cards highly plausible in a competitive mid-table PL fixture.
- Crystal Palace average 2.2 yellow cards per match; Newcastle also average 2.2 yellows per match (last 10 games)
- Palace average 12.7 fouls per match; Newcastle average 12.0 fouls — combined 24.7 fouls per match
- Crystal Palace have had 0.3 red cards per match over last 10 games (3 reds in 10)
- Newcastle have had 1.0 red cards per match over last 10 games — significantly elevated disciplinary issues
BetBugs · Cards Over/UnderlostOver 3.5Estimated chance60%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Palace's low SOT average (3.7) worsened by missing their top strikers, combined with what should be a cautious mid-table encounter, suggests both teams will struggle to regularly test the goalkeeper, keeping combined SOT under 10.
- Crystal Palace average 3.7 shots on target per match (last 10 games) — relatively low conversion
- Newcastle average 6.3 SOT but this is inflated by the 5 SOT in the 7-2 Barcelona game; away SOT figures are lower
- Palace missing Mateta and Nketiah reduces attacking potency and likely shot quality at home
- Palace's last home PL game vs Leeds produced 0 shots on target for Palace despite 67% possession
BetBugs · Shots on Target Over/UnderwonUnder 9.5Estimated chance55%

Head-to-Head

1W · 1D · 3W

L2-0NewcastlevCrystal PalaceJan 4, 2026PL

L5-0NewcastlevCrystal PalaceApr 16, 2025PL

D1-1Crystal PalacevNewcastleNov 30, 2024PL

W2-0Crystal PalacevNewcastleApr 24, 2024PL

L4-0NewcastlevCrystal PalaceOct 21, 2023PL

Newcastle: 3 clean sheets3 goals/game avg

League Table

Premier League 2025/2026

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF-GA	Pts	Form
14	Crystal Palace	30	10	9	11	33-35	39	DWLWL
13	Newcastle	31	12	6	13	44-45	42	LWWLL

3pt gap between teams

Recent Form

Crystal Palace

W3-0FiorentinaApr 9UEF

D0-0LeedsMar 15PL

D0-0AEK LarnacaMar 12UEF

W3-1TottenhamMar 5PL

L1-2Manchester UnitedMar 1PL

W2-0ZrinjskiFeb 26UEF

W1-0WolvesFeb 22PL

D1-1ZrinjskiFeb 19UEF

L2-3BurnleyFeb 11PL

W1-0BrightonFeb 8PL

Newcastle

L1-2SunderlandMar 22PL

L2-7BarcelonaMar 18UEF

W1-0ChelseaMar 14PL

D1-1BarcelonaMar 10UEF

L1-3Manchester CityMar 7FAC

W2-1Manchester UnitedMar 4PL

L2-3EvertonFeb 28PL

W3-2QarabagFeb 24UEF

L1-2Manchester CityFeb 21PL

W6-1QarabagFeb 18UEF

Squad & Injuries

Crystal Palace

8 out

Attackers6/9

×#14

×#9

×#29

×#14

×#9

×#29

Midfielders11

Defenders8

Goalkeeper3

C. Doucoure — Knee Injury

#14 J. Mateta — Rest

#9 E. Nketiah — Thigh Injury

#29 E. Guessand — Injury

C. Doucoure — Knee Injury

#14 J. Mateta — Rest

#9 E. Nketiah — Thigh Injury

#29 E. Guessand — Injury

Newcastle

8 out

Attackers6

Midfielders2/10

×#39

Defenders6/10

×#17

×#5

×#4

×#17

×#5

×#4

Goalkeeper5

#39 Bruno Guimaraes — Muscle Injury

#17 E. Krafth — Knee Injury

#5 F. Schar — Ankle Injury

#4 S. Botman — Face Injury

#39 Bruno Guimaraes — Muscle Injury

#17 E. Krafth — Knee Injury

#5 F. Schar — Ankle Injury

#4 S. Botman — Face Injury

Quick Take

Context

BetBugs edges

Crystal Palace

Crystal Palace or Draw

Under 2.5

No

Under 1.5

Result3 of 3 landed

Goals1 of 5 landed

Match stats2 of 3 landed

Head-to-Head

League Table

Recent Form

Crystal Palace

Newcastle

Squad & Injuries

Crystal Palace

Newcastle