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Evan Zhu #462United StatesYuta Shimizu #404Japan

Mon 2 Nov 2026, 02:002 Nov, 02:00Q3I.hard

6Probabilities1Priced1Edges72%Strongest

Strong leanLeanSlight lean

Player Profiles

Ranking advantageYuta Shimizu · 58 places

Evan Zhu

United States

American right-hander whose ATP career-high singles ranking was No. 271 on 6 March 2023. Public results show significant activity on hard and clay, but no authoritative preferred-surface designation was found.

Current ranking: #462
Peak ranking: #271 · 2023
Current age: 27
Preferred surface: Clay
Hand: Right handed
Height: 185 cm

Yuta Shimizu

Japan

Japanese left-hander who lists hard courts as his preferred surface. ITF records show a career-best ATP singles ranking of No. 181 on 24 February 2025.

Current ranking: #404
Peak ranking: #181 · 2025
Current age: 27
Preferred surface: Clay
Hand: Left handed
Height: 163 cm

Quick Take

Read first

Context last updated 1 Nov 2026, 16:01 · Europe/Bucharest

Two qualifying rivals ranked 404 and 462 meet indoors in Taipei, where Shimizu's fresher form — a 6-2 6-2 win on 1 November — edges him ahead of a Zhu side that has lost four of six.

Shimizu is the likelier winner, but the only reviewed quote, Shimizu to win the second set at 1.44, asks far more than his record supports. No quoted price here is worth backing.

Context

Both players sit outside the top 400 in a qualifying round, with no availability news or researched context, and Zhu has no aggregate serve or return metrics. The hard-court records and the fresh 1 November result are the only real conditions in play.

Zhu's first-set record is the steadiest part of his recent form even as his match results have slid.
Zhu has started sets well on hard courts, winning eight of 13 first sets and holding opponents to 3.92 games on average. That gives him a plausible route to a fast start against Shimizu, who has won only seven of 15 opening sets. The problem is sustaining it: Zhu is 6-7 in those same 13 matches, so first-set leads have not translated into wins.
- Zhu won 8 of 13 first sets on hard courts across matches from 15 September to 25 October 2026.
- In that 13-match sample he averaged 5.15 first-set games won against 3.92 games lost.
- His overall hard-court record in the same window was 6 wins and 7 losses.
Shimizu's freshest evidence is also his cleanest recent scoreline.
Shimizu lost only four games in his 1 November win, a straight-sets result that stands as the most recent form line in this matchup. It is a single match, and his previous outing on 28 October was a three-set loss to Yu Hsiou Hsu, so it is not a trend. The record also shows no Zhu match after 25 October, leaving Shimizu with the more current evidence.
- Shimizu beat Dimitris Sakellaridis 6-2 6-2 on 1 November 2026, winning 12 games to 4.
- The match was completed in two sets with no retirement.
- Shimizu's preceding match on 28 October 2026 was a three-set loss to Yu Hsiou Hsu.

BetBugs edges

Compare BetBugs' chances with the market's.

Other edges · 1

The published chance does not exceed the market's implied chance.

Set 2 WinnerUncertainty band: Lean

Yuta Shimizu

1.44fair 1.72

BetBugs 58% · Market 69.4%

−11.4ppshort

Shimizu has the stronger second-set record and has won four of his last six second sets.

BetBugs probabilities

How likely BetBugs thinks each outcome is.

Result1 outcome · top 54%

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Shimizu has the higher ranking and a slightly better overall hard-court record, while Zhu has lost four of his last six matches.
- Shimizu is ranked 404, Zhu 462.
- Shimizu is 7-8 over his last 15 hard-court matches with 49.8% total points won.
- Zhu is 6-7 over 13 hard-court matches with no aggregate serve or return metrics available.
- Shimizu won his latest match 6-2 6-2 on 1 November.
BetBugs · Match WinnerYuta ShimizuEstimated chance54%

Games1 outcome · top 53%

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
The combined recent averages sit close to the line, with Zhu's matches pulling below 23.5.
- Zhu's hard-court matches average 22.46 total games over 13 matches.
- Shimizu's hard-court matches average 23.8 total games over 15 matches.
- The line is 23.5 total games.
BetBugs · Total GamesUnder 23.5Estimated chance53%

Sets3 outcomes · top 60%

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Straight-set finishes are the more common result for both players on hard courts.
- Zhu's hard-court matches average 2.38 sets.
- Shimizu's hard-court matches average 2.40 sets.
- Combined, 17 of 28 recent hard-court matches finished in straight sets.
BetBugs · Total SetsUnder 2.5Estimated chance60%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Market price 1.44
The read
Shimizu has the stronger second-set record and has won four of his last six second sets.
- Shimizu has won 9 of 15 second sets on hard courts.
- Zhu has won 7 of 13 second sets on hard courts.
- Shimizu won four of his last six second sets.
BetBugs · Set 2 WinnerYuta ShimizuMarket price1.44Estimated chance58%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Zhu has the better opening-set record, though recent first sets are level.
- Zhu has won 8 of 13 opening sets on hard courts.
- Shimizu has won 7 of 15 opening sets on hard courts.
- Both players are 3-3 in first sets over their last six matches.
BetBugs · Set 1 WinnerEvan ZhuEstimated chance53%

Match stats1 outcome · top 72%

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Tiebreaks have appeared in only about one in four of their recent hard-court matches.
- Zhu has had a tiebreak in 3 of 13 hard-court matches.
- Shimizu has had a tiebreak in 4 of 15 hard-court matches.
- Combined, 21 of 28 recent hard-court matches had no tiebreak.
BetBugs · Tiebreak in MatchNoEstimated chance72%

Prediction history

Yuta Shimizu: 2/4 recent winner projections matched

2 of 4 comparable winner projections favouring Yuta Shimizu matched the recorded result. This is a limited recent sample, not a guarantee for this match.

Recent evidence for Yuta Shimizu4 matches

Date / competitionMatch resultPredictedActualResult

15 Jul·Granby - Canada

#371Yuta Shimizu0-2#422Justin Boulais

BetBugsYuta Shimizu to win·58%

Missed

15 Jul 2026

Granby - Canada

#371Yuta Shimizu0-2#422Justin Boulais

Yuta Shimizu to win

58%probability

Justin Boulais won

Missed

29 Jun·Cary - USA

#357Yuta Shimizu2-0#470Trevor Svajda

BetBugsYuta Shimizu to win·62%

Matched

29 Jun 2026

Cary - USA

#357Yuta Shimizu2-0#470Trevor Svajda

Yuta Shimizu to win

62%probability

Yuta Shimizu won

Matched

28 Jun·Cary - USA

#357Yuta Shimizu2-0#497Dan Martin

BetBugsYuta Shimizu to win·72%

Matched

28 Jun 2026

Cary - USA

#357Yuta Shimizu2-0#497Dan Martin

Yuta Shimizu to win

72%probability

Yuta Shimizu won

Matched

27 May·Little Rock - USA

#363Yuta Shimizu1-2#194Bernard Tomic

BetBugsYuta Shimizu to win·58%

Missed

27 May 2026

Little Rock - USA

#363Yuta Shimizu1-2#194Bernard Tomic

Yuta Shimizu to win

58%probability

Bernard Tomic won

Missed

Previous match context available

Evan Zhu

8W 7L

0-1 ret.#294Akira Santillan

6-4 6-4—Yeonsu Jeong

6-4 6-4#616Max Purcell

6-1 1-6 6-3#893Yaojie Zeng

3-6 6-4 6-0#783Egor Pleshivtsev

7-6(6) 7-6(5)#360Alibek Kachmazov

6-3 6-3#463Koki Matsuda

6-7(6) 6-4 6-2#175Alex Bolt

6-3 6-4#827Hanyi Liu

6-3 4-2 ret.#116Aleksandar Vukic

6-1 6-0—Zhiheng Xia

6-3 6-7(8) 6-3#217Henry Searle

6-2 6-4#437Alafia Ayeni

6-1 7-5#889Aleksi Lofman

6-1 4-6 7-5#101Michael Zheng

Yuta Shimizu

7W 8L

6-2 6-2#537Dimitris Sakellaridis

7-5 3-6 6-4#330Yu Hsiou Hsu

6-7(2) 6-3 6-4#274Mili Poljicak

6-3 6-1#616Max Purcell

5-7 6-2 7-6(5)#179Bernard Tomic

7-6(11) 6-2#132Stefanos Sakellaridis

6-2 2-6 7-5#338Philip Sekulic

6-4 6-4#398Arthur Weber

5-7 7-5 7-6(3)#482Hiroki Moriya

6-4 6-4#368Kasidit Samrej

6-1 6-1#880Aditya Vishal Balsekar

6-4 7-5#309Anton Matusevich

4-6 6-3 6-3#443Johannus Monday

6-2 7-5#231Liam Broady

7-5 6-1#428Justin Boulais

Stat Battle

Last 15 match performance, compared side by side.

EZEvan ZhuZhu

Last 15

7–2

9 core stats · 0 even

Yuta ShimizuShimizuYS

Evan Zhu carries the stronger recent form — Yuta Shimizu's route runs through serve.

Serve · 3–2

1st Serve In65.9%+2.8pp63.1%

1st Serve Won67.9%+3.6pp71.5%

2nd Serve Won51.4%+3.5pp47.9%

Aces / Match3.0+1.74.7

Double Faults / Match2.31.0 fewer3.3

Return · 1–0

Return Pts Won38.2%+1.4pp36.8%

Pressure · 2–0

Break Pts Converted46.9%+5.6pp41.3%

Break Pts Saved63.3%+7.7pp55.6%

Points · 1–0

Total Pts Won50.7%+0.9pp49.8%

Serve · 3–2

65.9%1st Serve In+2.8pp63.1%

67.9%1st Serve Won+3.6pp71.5%

51.4%2nd Serve Won+3.5pp47.9%

3.0Aces / Match+1.74.7

2.3Double Faults / Match1.0 fewer3.3

Return · 1–0

38.2%Return Pts Won+1.4pp36.8%

Pressure · 2–0

46.9%Break Pts Converted+5.6pp41.3%

63.3%Break Pts Saved+7.7pp55.6%

Points · 1–0

50.7%Total Pts Won+0.9pp49.8%